MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings (8725) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥6.37T
• Dividend Yield: 2.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.86M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: 23.01%
• EPS Growth: 2.59%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 38,391
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 1,492,551,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,912,120
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,855,210
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.79
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥4,314.29
• Price Target Upside: 12.03% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥4,810.00 ▲(24.90% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/20/26

The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and a stable, conservatively leveraged balance sheet, supported by attractive valuation (low P/E with a dividend). Technicals are bullish but tempered by overbought momentum signals, and declining revenue growth plus past cash-flow volatility add risk.

Positive Factors

Improving profitability

A materially higher net margin and improved ROE indicate stronger underwriting discipline and more efficient capital use. These durable improvements support sustainable earnings, internal capital generation for claims and investments, and the ability to maintain dividends and reserves over the medium term.

Conservative balance sheet

Very low leverage provides financial flexibility to absorb large losses and fund catastrophe claims without immediate market financing. A strong equity base supports rating stability and long-term risk-taking capacity, allowing measured growth while preserving solvency metrics.

Improving cash generation

Recent improvement in free cash flow and stable operating cash flow relative to net income strengthen the firm's ability to fund claims, reinvest in operations, and pay shareholders. Consistent cash conversion increases resilience versus underwriting and market cycles.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue growth

A falling top-line growth rate is a structural concern for an insurer: slower premium growth constrains scale benefits, limits incremental underwriting margin improvement, and reduces the growth of investable float, making it harder to expand earnings sustainably without improved pricing or market share gains.

Historic cash-flow volatility

A history of volatile free cash flow undermines predictability of capital deployment and dividend coverage. Persistent swings raise reliance on investment income or external funding in stress periods, complicating reserve management and longer-term strategic investments.

Underwriting and investment sensitivity

The business model's dependence on underwriting results and investment returns creates structural earnings cyclicality. Catastrophe losses, reserve adequacy, and market-rate shifts can materially affect profitability over multiple quarters, necessitating conservative reserving and active risk transfer strategies.

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides insurance and financial services worldwide. The company offers fire and allied, marine, personal accident, voluntary automobile, compulsory automobile liability, and others non-life insurance products; life insurance products; and reinsurance services. It also provides risk-related services. The company was formerly known as Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. in April 2010. MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings generates revenue primarily through its insurance underwriting activities, which involve collecting premiums from policyholders in exchange for coverage against potential risks. The company earns most of its income from property and casualty insurance, where it assesses risks and sets premium rates accordingly. In addition to underwriting income, MS&AD benefits from investment income derived from the premiums collected, as these funds are typically invested in various financial instruments to generate returns. The company also earns fees from its asset management services. Significant partnerships with global reinsurance firms enhance its risk management capabilities and provide additional revenue streams through reinsurance arrangements. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and market performance can influence the company's investment income, further impacting its overall earnings.

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is strong with improving net margin and healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins, and the balance sheet is conservatively leveraged (low debt-to-equity) with improved ROE. Offsetting factors include declining revenue growth and a history of cash flow volatility despite recent free cash flow improvement.

Income Statement

The company shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin of 100% and a significant improvement in net profit margin from 5.63% to 10.75% over the last year. However, the revenue growth rate has declined by 5.11% in the most recent year, indicating a potential challenge in maintaining top-line growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting efficient operations.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity has improved significantly to 17.29%, showcasing effective use of equity. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid financial foundation. However, the total debt has decreased, which could impact future growth opportunities if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

The company has shown a remarkable improvement in free cash flow growth, although the previous year had a negative free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, indicating consistent cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high, reflecting efficient cash conversion, but past volatility in cash flows suggests potential risks.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.45T	6.35T	6.34T	5.06T	5.01T	4.82T
Gross Profit	6.45T	5.46T	5.49T	4.28T	4.28T	4.09T
EBITDA	946.16B	1.04T	593.74B	413.98B	482.62B	300.39B
Net Income	710.17B	691.66B	369.27B	211.01B	262.80B	144.40B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	26.33T	26.24T	26.96T	24.35T	25.03T	24.14T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	2.14T	2.91T	2.77T	2.36T	2.06T
Total Debt	590.32B	590.57B	715.04B	714.74B	782.90B	809.09B
Total Liabilities	22.20T	22.19T	22.45T	21.21T	21.73T	21.02T
Stockholders Equity	4.08T	4.00T	4.47T	3.09T	3.26T	3.09T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	634.99B	526.59B	169.53B	208.58B	-357.61B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	660.19B	549.47B	194.15B	236.71B	-323.91B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-360.92B	-178.37B	453.78B	148.95B	-128.82B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-659.40B	-227.16B	-312.03B	58.55B	79.28B

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3851.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8725, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3851 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4104.85, below the 50-day MA of 3930.16, and above the 200-day MA of 3447.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 112.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.12 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8725.

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8630	76 Outperform	¥5.51T	23.80	―	2.82%	11.37%	27.90%
8725	72 Outperform	¥6.37T	8.98	16.44%	2.59%	23.01%	2.59%
7181	72 Outperform	¥1.76T	11.58	―	2.44%	-21.38%	58.05%
8750	69 Neutral	¥5.79T	12.87	10.61%	3.26%	-8.02%	5.21%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8766	66 Neutral	¥12.33T	11.73	19.96%	3.33%	-2.10%	-8.76%
8795	61 Neutral	$2.06T	17.25	8.83%	2.74%	-1.96%	10.32%

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Corporate Events

MS&AD Finalizes Merger Plan for Core Non-Life Units to Form Mitsui Sumitomo Aioi Insurance

MS&AD Insurance Group’s core non-life units, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance and Aioi Nissay Dowa Insurance, have signed a final agreement to merge, creating Mitsui Sumitomo Aioi Insurance Company, Limited as of April 1, 2027, with Mitsui Sumitomo as the surviving entity. The holding company will be renamed Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group, Inc., and the new insurer will be governed by a 15-member board with seven outside directors, aiming to strengthen growth foundations, enhance governance and reliability, and better address rising societal risks under a more unified, globally competitive structure.

The merger, which requires approval at shareholder meetings in June 2026 and from relevant authorities, will not involve new capital issuance or consideration to the holding company for Aioi Nissay Dowa shares. By consolidating operations and leadership while maintaining capital levels, the group seeks to streamline its non-life insurance platform, bolster long-term corporate value, and reinforce its positioning as a leading risk solutions provider amid increasing uncertainty for customers and stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8725) stock is a Hold with a Yen4513.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings stock, see the JP:8725 Stock Forecast page.

MS&AD Profit Surges as Assets Grow and Dividend Policy Holds Steady

MS&AD Insurance Group reported consolidated ordinary income of ¥5.91 trillion for the nine months ended 31 December 2025, up 12.9% year on year, with ordinary profit rising 7.5% to ¥886.4 billion and net income attributable to owners of the parent surging 584.7% to ¥953.4 billion. The group’s total assets expanded to ¥27.98 trillion and its equity ratio improved, while it maintained full-year forecasts for lower ordinary profit and net income versus the prior year, continued a mix of higher ordinary and special dividends, and adjusted its consolidation scope by adding MSIG Specialty Insurance America, Inc. and removing MSIG Insurance Europe AG.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8725) stock is a Hold with a Yen4513.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings stock, see the JP:8725 Stock Forecast page.

MS&AD Reports January Progress on Share Buyback Programme

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings has reported progress on its ongoing share repurchase programme, disclosing that it bought 10,813,600 of its own common shares in January 2026 for a total consideration of approximately JPY 42.28 billion. This brings cumulative purchases under the current buyback plan, approved in November 2025 with an upper limit of 75 million shares and JPY 135 billion, to 19,170,500 shares worth about JPY 72.18 billion through the end of January, underscoring the insurer’s continued capital management efforts and potential support for shareholder value through reduced share float.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8725) stock is a Hold with a Yen4247.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings stock, see the JP:8725 Stock Forecast page.

MS&AD Steps Up Share Buyback, Repurchasing 6.4 Million Shares in December

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings has repurchased 6,439,500 of its own common shares for approximately JPY 23.28 billion during the period from December 1 to December 31, 2025. This transaction forms part of a larger share buyback program authorized in November 2025, under which the company may repurchase up to 75 million shares or JPY 135 billion by March 24, 2026; as of the end of December 2025, total repurchases under the plan reached 8,356,900 shares and about JPY 29.9 billion, signaling an active capital management policy that may support shareholder returns and optimize the company’s capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8725) stock is a Hold with a Yen3621.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings stock, see the JP:8725 Stock Forecast page.

Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance to Redeem ¥50 Billion Subordinated Bonds Early

Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Company, a core subsidiary of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, has decided to redeem in full its second series of domestic subordinated unsecured bonds ahead of maturity. The ¥50 billion issue, originally launched in February 2016 with interest deferrable and early redemption options, will be repaid at par on February 10, 2026, with settlement handled through the Japanese book-entry transfer system. The early redemption signals proactive capital management by the insurer, potentially reshaping its subordinated debt profile and capital structure, though the company stresses that the notice is purely for disclosure and not an investment solicitation.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8725) stock is a Hold with a Yen3621.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings stock, see the JP:8725 Stock Forecast page.

MS&AD Adjusts Establishment Date for New Sub-Subsidiary Without Financial Impact

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings has updated the planned establishment date of a new sub-subsidiary by one of its consolidated subsidiaries, shifting the schedule from November 30, 2025 to December 23, 2025 (local time) due to the need for additional time to complete related procedures. The company expects this schedule change to have no material impact on its consolidated financial results, indicating that the operational and financial implications for stakeholders are limited despite the minor delay in the new entity’s launch.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8725) stock is a Hold with a Yen3621.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings stock, see the JP:8725 Stock Forecast page.

MS&AD Insurance Announces Treasury Stock Cancellation Correction

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. announced a correction to its previous notice regarding the cancellation of treasury stock, adjusting the number of issued shares post-cancellation. The company resolved to cancel 115,846,976 shares, representing 7.2% of its issued shares, with the cancellation scheduled for November 28, 2025. This move is expected to impact the company’s share structure and potentially influence shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8725) stock is a Hold with a Yen3621.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings stock, see the JP:8725 Stock Forecast page.

MS&AD Insurance Group Initiates Share Buyback Program

MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings has announced the purchase of 1,917,400 of its own shares for approximately JPY 6.62 billion between November 20 and November 30, 2025. This move is part of a larger stock repurchase plan, aiming to buy back up to 75 million shares, representing about 5% of its outstanding shares, with a maximum budget of JPY 135 billion, scheduled to continue until March 24, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8725) stock is a Hold with a Yen3621.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings stock, see the JP:8725 Stock Forecast page.