Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. (8338) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥52.07B
• Dividend Yield: 1.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 858.69K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.60
• Revenue Growth: 8.45%
• EPS Growth: 168.74%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,335
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 23.16
• Shares Outstanding: 82,553,720
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 901,940
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 858,693
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.58
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥690.00 ▲(52.65% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—particularly weak cash flow and negative revenue growth—partly offset by a stable balance sheet and strong margins. Technicals are soft in the near term, while the low P/E provides meaningful valuation support.

Positive Factors

Capital Base

Tsukuba's stable equity base and healthy equity ratio provide a lasting capital buffer that helps absorb credit losses, satisfy regulatory capital requirements, and support measured lending. This capital strength underpins franchise resilience and allows steady operations over the medium term.

Gross Margin Strength

Sustained strong gross margins point to effective cost control and a profitable core banking spread. Durable margin strength gives the bank flexibility to invest in digital channels and customer service while maintaining earnings resilience through interest-rate cycles and competitive pressures.

Regional SME & Public Franchise

A focused regional franchise serving individuals, SMEs, and local governments yields stable deposit flows and predictable loan demand. Long-standing local relationships support cross-selling, lower customer acquisition costs, and a dependable funding base that tends to persist across economic cycles.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation

Recent negative operating and free cash flows indicate the bank is not converting earnings into cash consistently, which can constrain reinvestment, dividend capacity, and loan growth. Persistent cash deficits increase reliance on external funding and weaken financial flexibility over time.

Rising Leverage

An increasing debt-to-equity trend raises balance-sheet risk by amplifying earnings volatility and reducing capital headroom. Higher leverage can tighten regulatory constraints, limit the ability to expand lending, and force more frequent capital actions during stress, eroding strategic optionality.

Volatile Profitability & Revenue

Fluctuating margins and recent revenue weakness point to unstable earnings power, complicating forecasting and capital allocation. Earnings volatility can necessitate higher loan-loss provisioning and reduce capacity for consistent investment or shareholder returns, increasing medium-term execution risk.

Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. provides various banking products and services primarily in Ibaraki prefecture in Japan. It offers deposits and loans; insurance; and asset management and other services. It operates through a network of 149 branches in Japan. The company was formerly known as Ibaraki Mutual Bank, Ltd. and changed its name to Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. in 1989. Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. was incorporated in 1952 and is headquartered in Tsukuba, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Tsukuba Bank generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and advances, which constitutes its main revenue stream. The bank lends money to individuals and businesses, charging interest on these loans. Additionally, the bank earns fees from various services such as account maintenance, transaction processing, and investment advisory services. The bank also generates income through its treasury operations, including trading in securities and foreign exchange. Partnerships with local businesses and government entities help to enhance its product offerings and attract more customers, contributing to its overall earnings.

Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: a stable equity base and strong gross margins are positives, but recent negative revenue growth, volatile profitability (EBIT/EBITDA), rising leverage, and negative operating/free cash flow point to elevated risk.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin remains strong, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has seen fluctuations, with a recent decline due to a drop in revenue. The revenue growth rate has been negative in the latest period, reflecting challenges in maintaining top-line growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also shown volatility, suggesting potential operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable equity base with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, although it has increased over time, indicating rising leverage. Return on equity is relatively low, suggesting limited profitability from equity investments. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a solid asset base supported by equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals concerns with negative operating and free cash flows in the latest period, indicating cash management issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to convert earnings into cash, but the negative growth in free cash flow is a red flag. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting potential cash flow challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	36.52B	35.66B	36.26B	32.79B	32.46B	31.68B
Gross Profit	36.52B	33.80B	35.49B	31.97B	32.00B	31.04B
EBITDA	5.27B	6.61B	4.63B	4.09B	6.74B	4.27B
Net Income	4.45B	4.10B	2.19B	2.10B	4.23B	1.76B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.89T	2.89T	2.85T	2.77T	2.96T	2.70T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	307.35B	351.61B	334.87B	524.84B	357.13B
Total Debt	155.30B	143.30B	138.30B	128.30B	369.00B	158.00B
Total Liabilities	2.79T	2.80T	2.76T	2.68T	2.86T	2.59T
Stockholders Equity	98.14B	91.75B	97.14B	91.02B	104.10B	112.31B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-9.17B	11.82B	-263.47B	218.45B	172.86B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-8.80B	12.61B	-261.93B	220.00B	174.18B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-86.31B	18.44B	59.37B	-34.66B	-30.96B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	39.01B	-464.00M	-431.00M	-424.00M	151.61B

Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 452.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:8338, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 452 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 680.10, below the 50-day MA of 561.12, and above the 200-day MA of 362.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 18.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:8338.

Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
8558	78 Outperform	¥39.48B	24.09	―	2.87%	16.42%	119.62%
8537	72 Outperform	¥24.89B	7.08	―	3.50%	16.60%	-5.51%
8551	68 Neutral	¥39.52B	10.62	―	3.28%	22.26%	-12.68%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
8542	67 Neutral	¥19.06B	4.85	―	3.37%	3.70%	24.98%
8338	65 Neutral	¥52.07B	4.49	―	1.20%	8.45%	168.74%
8364	64 Neutral	¥32.05B	7.87	―	2.59%	4.90%	―

Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. Corporate Events

Tsukuba Bank Posts Sharp Profit Surge and Stronger Capital for Nine-Month Period

Tsukuba Bank reported a sharp improvement in earnings for the nine months ended December 31, 2025, with ordinary income rising 23.0% year on year to ¥37.4 billion and ordinary profit more than doubling to ¥6.6 billion. Profit attributable to owners of the parent surged 123.8% to ¥5.7 billion, lifting basic earnings per share to ¥69.14, while comprehensive income swung strongly into positive territory. The bank’s equity increased to ¥104.9 billion, improving its equity-to-asset ratio from 3.1% at the previous fiscal year-end to 3.6%, and it maintained its full-year forecast for fiscal 2025, projecting a 34.0% increase in ordinary profit and a 26.7% rise in net profit. The dividend policy remains unchanged, with an annual ¥5 per share payout forecast for the year ending March 31, 2026, indicating steady shareholder returns alongside its strengthened capital position.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8338) stock is a Hold with a Yen556.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. stock, see the JP:8338 Stock Forecast page.

Tsukuba Bank Reports ¥1.38 Billion Unrealized Bond Losses With No Change to Earnings Outlook

Tsukuba Bank has disclosed that unrealized losses on its held-to-maturity bond portfolio totaled ¥1,376 million as of the end of the third quarter for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, compared with a book value of ¥30,010 million and a market value of ¥28,634 million. The bank noted that these unrealized losses are equivalent to 30.7% of its consolidated ordinary profit and 33.5% of profit attributable to owners of the parent for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, but stated that the recognition of these losses will have no impact on its current full-year earnings or dividend forecasts, indicating that management views the situation as manageable within its existing financial plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:8338) stock is a Hold with a Yen556.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsukuba Bank, Ltd. stock, see the JP:8338 Stock Forecast page.