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Kokuyo Co Ltd (JP:7984)
:7984

Kokuyo Co (7984) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:7984

Kokuyo Co

(7984)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
¥973.00
▲(14.89% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is primarily supported by strong financial resilience (especially the very low-debt balance sheet) and generally improving gross profitability. This is tempered by weaker recent cash-flow consistency and softer near-term technicals (trading below 20/50-day averages with subdued momentum). Valuation is reasonable with a moderate dividend yield but not compelling enough to offset the cash-flow and near-term trend concerns.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage provides durable financial flexibility: limits refinancing risk, supports capital allocation (dividends, capex, M&A) during cycles, and cushions operational volatility. A strong equity base underpins long-term strategic optionality and downside protection.
Improving gross margin
Sustained gross-margin expansion implies better pricing, product mix or cost control that is structural rather than transitory. Higher gross margins create lasting room to absorb SG&A or reinvest in growth while protecting operating profitability through demand swings.
Consistent revenue growth
Multi-year top-line growth reflects resilient demand across stationery, school and office segments and diversified channels. Steady revenue expansion supports scale benefits, improves predictability of cash flows, and underpins medium-term investment and product development.
Negative Factors
Weaker cash conversion
Declining and volatile cash conversion reduces internal funding for capex, dividends and buybacks and raises reliance on cash reserves despite low debt. Persistent FCF weakness would restrict strategic flexibility and make earnings less fungible into long-term shareholder returns.
Operating margin decline
A step-down in operating margin signals emerging cost or efficiency pressures that can erode earnings power. If structural, this limits the firm's ability to translate gross-margin gains into net profit, constraining reinvestment and long-run profitability without corrective measures.
Modest net profitability
A low net margin constrains retained earnings and free capital for strategic initiatives. Modest profitability limits buffer against cyclical downturns and makes it harder to fund growth internally, meaning long-term growth depends on sustained margin improvement or external financing.

Kokuyo Co (7984) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Kokuyo Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKokuyo Co., Ltd. (TSE: 7984) is a leading Japanese manufacturer and retailer of stationery products, office supplies, and educational materials. Established in 1905, the company operates primarily in the stationery sector, offering a wide range of products including notebooks, writing instruments, paper products, and office furniture. Kokuyo also provides solutions for corporate customers, designing and manufacturing custom products tailored to specific business needs. With a focus on innovation, Kokuyo aims to enhance productivity and creativity in educational and professional environments.
How the Company Makes MoneyKokuyo generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling a diverse range of stationery and office supplies to both consumers and businesses. The company has a robust retail network, including its own stores and partnerships with various retailers, which enables it to reach a broad customer base. Additionally, Kokuyo earns revenue from its corporate solutions segment, where it provides customized products and services to businesses, including office furniture and specialized stationery. The company's commitment to innovation and quality has also led to strategic partnerships with educational institutions and corporations, further enhancing its market presence and sales opportunities. Overall, Kokuyo's revenue model is built on a combination of direct sales, business solutions, and partnerships within the education and corporate sectors.

Kokuyo Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong financial stability driven by a very low-leverage balance sheet (Balance Sheet Score: 90) and improving gross margin over time. Offsetting factors are uneven cash conversion and a recent decline in operating cash flow/free cash flow (Cash Flow Score: 58) plus a notable operating margin step-down in 2025 (Income Statement Score: 73).
Income Statement
73
Positive
Revenue has trended upward overall (2025 up ~2% after a strong 2023), and gross margin has steadily improved from ~36% (2020) to ~40% (2025), signaling better pricing/mix and/or cost control. However, profitability has been somewhat choppy: operating margin fell notably in 2025 versus 2024, and net margin remains modest (~6% in 2025). Net income is stable-to-slightly up versus 2023, but the step-down in operating profitability versus last year keeps the score from being higher.
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
The balance sheet is conservatively financed with very low leverage (debt-to-equity roughly ~1–6% across 2020–2025, improving to ~1% in 2025). Equity is large and relatively stable, supporting strong financial flexibility and lower refinancing risk. A mild watch item is that equity dipped versus 2024, but overall balance sheet risk appears low given the minimal debt load.
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
Cash generation is positive but uneven. Operating cash flow declined in 2024–2025 from the high in 2023, and free cash flow fell in 2025 (down ~13%), indicating weaker conversion in the most recent year. Free cash flow covered only about ~55% of net income in 2025 (similar in 2024), which is adequate but not strong; 2023 was much better (free cash flow well in excess of reported earnings). The variability in cash conversion and the recent downshift weigh on the score.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue359.88B338.23B328.75B300.93B320.17B
Gross Profit144.47B132.92B127.39B116.67B115.71B
EBITDA34.43B43.31B36.08B30.45B28.90B
Net Income21.47B21.79B19.07B18.24B13.70B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets355.05B362.96B358.41B337.17B324.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments110.75B132.34B115.62B98.46B101.29B
Total Debt3.47B4.18B9.24B9.47B9.32B
Total Liabilities99.59B98.90B104.99B97.42B94.47B
Stockholders Equity251.68B260.55B251.84B237.87B228.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow7.91B8.60B28.39B3.93B15.75B
Operating Cash Flow14.37B16.38B34.74B9.58B21.79B
Investing Cash Flow-4.61B12.25B-3.80B-3.32B2.56B
Financing Cash Flow-31.65B-15.62B-14.44B-8.99B-15.06B

Kokuyo Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price846.90
Price Trends
50DMA
907.41
Positive
100DMA
894.34
Positive
200DMA
872.58
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.84
Positive
RSI
48.53
Neutral
STOCH
30.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7984, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 846.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 918.42, below the 50-day MA of 907.41, and below the 200-day MA of 872.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.84 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:7984.

Kokuyo Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
¥270.67B10.643.99%6.02%18.88%
71
Outperform
¥188.05B15.392.56%-0.26%3.35%
71
Outperform
¥127.02B21.462.09%6.39%-34.84%
70
Neutral
¥4.21B20.152.03%3.24%
67
Neutral
¥395.12B19.078.83%2.33%6.29%8.74%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
58
Neutral
¥23.49B43.981.69%-2.71%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:7984
Kokuyo Co
920.80
236.59
34.58%
JP:7846
Pilot Corporation
4,880.00
868.74
21.66%
JP:7962
King Jim Co., Ltd.
825.00
-7.32
-0.88%
JP:7975
LIHIT LAB., INC.
1,241.00
121.18
10.82%
JP:7976
Mitsubishi Pencil Company, Limited
2,452.00
-8.80
-0.36%
JP:7994
OKAMURA CORP
2,734.00
888.24
48.12%

Kokuyo Co Corporate Events

Kokuyo Reveals Oasis Management as New Largest Major Shareholder
Feb 17, 2026

Kokuyo Co., Ltd. has disclosed that Oasis Management Company Ltd., an asset management firm based in the Cayman Islands, has become its largest major shareholder. According to large-volume shareholding change reports filed with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau, Oasis increased its holding from 27,943,956 shares to 43,682,051 shares, representing 10.28% of Kokuyo’s voting rights as of February 6, 2026.

The company noted that these figures are based on regulatory filings and that it has not independently confirmed the exact number of shares held by Oasis, especially following a 4-for-1 stock split implemented on July 1, 2025. Kokuyo stated that the change in major shareholder status does not currently alter its announced outlook, suggesting no immediate impact on operations, though the larger stake may signal heightened investor influence over future governance or strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7984) stock is a Buy with a Yen1063.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kokuyo Co stock, see the JP:7984 Stock Forecast page.

Kokuyo Sets May 2026 Date for Head Office Move to Grand Green Osaka
Feb 13, 2026

Kokuyo Co., Ltd. has set May 1, 2026 as the official date to relocate its head office to the 14th floor of Park Tower in the Grand Green Osaka complex in Kita-ku, Osaka. This move advances a previously announced plan to modernize the company’s headquarters footprint and aligns its corporate base with a newly developed urban business hub.

The company expects no significant impact on consolidated results for the year ending December 31, 2026 from the relocation, framing the associated investment and expenses as value-enhancing over the medium to long term. Kokuyo is also considering selling the land and building of its current head office after the move to improve asset efficiency and effective capital use, a step that could reshape its balance sheet and asset portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7984) stock is a Buy with a Yen1063.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kokuyo Co stock, see the JP:7984 Stock Forecast page.

Kokuyo Links Executive Stock Pay to EBITDA, ROE and TSR Targets
Feb 13, 2026

Kokuyo Co., Ltd. has approved the introduction of a performance-linked stock compensation plan for its corporate and managing officers, aligning executive pay more closely with the company’s medium-term strategy and financial targets. The scheme is built around the firm’s fourth medium-term plan, which prioritizes EBITDA and other value-creation metrics as key measures of progress.

The new compensation structure consists of two plans: one tied to consolidated ROE and consolidated EBITDA, and another linked to relative total shareholder return, with defined multi-year evaluation periods starting in 2026. Awards will be delivered as a mix of cash and restricted stock, subject to continued eligibility, and include a clawback clause, reinforcing corporate governance and further aligning management incentives with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7984) stock is a Buy with a Yen1063.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kokuyo Co stock, see the JP:7984 Stock Forecast page.

Kokuyo Lifts Year-End Dividend, Reaffirming Progressive Payout Policy
Feb 13, 2026

Kokuyo Co., Ltd. has announced that its board will propose an increase in the year-end dividend for the fiscal year ended December 2025, raising the payout to 13 yen per share from the previously forecast 11.5 yen, with total year-end dividends of 5,599 million yen. This follows a 4-for-1 stock split in July 2025 and compares with a year-end dividend of 9.75 yen for 2024 on a post-split basis.

As a result, Kokuyo’s total annual dividend for 2025 will rise to 24.5 yen per share, up from 19.25 yen a year earlier, corresponding to a payout ratio of 50.7%. The move underscores the company’s progressive dividend policy, under which it aims to keep dividends at least at the prior year’s level while targeting a 50% consolidated payout ratio, signaling continued commitment to shareholder returns alongside ongoing business growth efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7984) stock is a Buy with a Yen1063.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kokuyo Co stock, see the JP:7984 Stock Forecast page.

Kokuyo Lifts Sales and Operating Profit, Boosts Payout After Stock Split
Feb 13, 2026

Kokuyo Co., Ltd., a leading Japanese office furniture and stationery maker, reported consolidated net sales of ¥359.9 billion for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, up 6.2% year on year, with operating income rising 16.5% to ¥26.2 billion and ordinary income climbing 11.5% to ¥27.2 billion. Profit attributable to owners of the parent edged down 1.4% to ¥21.5 billion, as the company absorbed a change in accounting presentation of real estate-related income and expenses, while maintaining a solid equity ratio of 70.9% despite a slight decline in total assets.

Operating cash flow decreased to ¥14.4 billion and cash and cash equivalents at year-end fell to ¥110.6 billion, reflecting higher financing outflows of ¥31.6 billion, even as investing activities turned to a net outflow. Kokuyo implemented a 4-for-1 stock split on July 1, 2025, raised total annual dividends to ¥10.7 billion with a payout ratio of 50.7%, and signaled continued shareholder returns with a forecast payout ratio of 51.2% for 2026, underscoring a commitment to balancing growth investment with distributions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7984) stock is a Buy with a Yen1063.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kokuyo Co stock, see the JP:7984 Stock Forecast page.

Kokuyo Cancels 22 Million Treasury Shares to Tighten Capital Policy
Dec 25, 2025

Kokuyo Co., Ltd. has canceled 22 million of its own common shares, representing 4.75% of its issued shares before the transaction, with the cancellation completed on December 25, 2025 under Article 178 of the Companies Act. Following this move, the company now has 440,969,852 issued shares outstanding and reaffirmed its capital policy under its fourth medium-term plan to keep treasury shares below 2% of total issued shares and to cancel any excess on an ongoing basis, signaling continued emphasis on shareholder-oriented capital efficiency and disciplined balance sheet management.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7984) stock is a Buy with a Yen1063.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kokuyo Co stock, see the JP:7984 Stock Forecast page.

KOKUYO Completes ¥20 Billion Share Buyback Program After Stock Split
Dec 25, 2025

KOKUYO Co., Ltd. has completed a share repurchase program authorized by its board on February 14, 2025, conducting open-market buybacks of its common stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. In the latest tranche, between December 1 and December 19, 2025, the company acquired 2,063,300 shares for approximately ¥1.92 billion, bringing total repurchases under the program to 23,089,300 shares at a cost of about ¥20 billion, with figures presented on a post–four-for-one stock split basis. The completion of this sizable buyback, close to the approved monetary ceiling, underscores KOKUYO’s ongoing efforts to enhance shareholder returns and optimize its capital structure, which may support earnings per share and signal confidence in the company’s long-term prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7984) stock is a Buy with a Yen1063.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kokuyo Co stock, see the JP:7984 Stock Forecast page.

Kokuyo Co. to Acquire Vietnamese Stationery Leader Thien Long Group
Dec 4, 2025

Kokuyo Co., Ltd. has announced its plan to acquire Thien Long Group Corporation, a prominent Vietnamese stationery manufacturer, through a stock purchase and tender offer. This acquisition aligns with Kokuyo’s strategy to expand its global presence and leverage TLG’s strong business infrastructure in the ASEAN region, contributing to sustained growth and long-term value creation for both companies.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7984) stock is a Buy with a Yen948.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kokuyo Co stock, see the JP:7984 Stock Forecast page.

Kokuyo Co. Announces Share Buyback Program
Dec 4, 2025

Kokuyo Co., Ltd. has announced a share buyback program, acquiring 1,974,400 shares valued at approximately ¥1.78 billion between November 1 and November 30, 2025. This move follows a previous buyback initiative approved in February 2025, which included a four-for-one stock split in July 2025, and reflects Kokuyo’s ongoing efforts to optimize capital structure and enhance shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7984) stock is a Buy with a Yen948.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kokuyo Co stock, see the JP:7984 Stock Forecast page.

Kokuyo Co. to Acquire and Integrate Six Sales Affiliates
Dec 4, 2025

Kokuyo Co., Ltd. has announced its plan to acquire six Japan-based sales companies, currently equity-method affiliates, to make them wholly owned subsidiaries and integrate them into Kokuyo Marketing Co. Ltd. This strategic move aims to consolidate resources, enhance competitive advantage, and strengthen Kokuyo’s sales network in Japan, thereby improving resilience and unlocking further growth in its B2B operations. The reorganization is expected to improve knowledge-sharing and coordination, enabling Kokuyo to deliver greater value to customers and gain a competitive edge in a changing market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7984) stock is a Buy with a Yen948.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kokuyo Co stock, see the JP:7984 Stock Forecast page.

Kokuyo Co. Announces Strategic Cancellation of Treasury Shares
Nov 27, 2025

Kokuyo Co., Ltd. announced the cancellation of 22 million treasury shares, which represents 4.75% of its total issued shares, as part of its financial strategy to maintain treasury shares below 2% of total shares. This move is aligned with the company’s fourth medium-term plan, aiming to optimize capital structure and enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7984) stock is a Buy with a Yen948.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kokuyo Co stock, see the JP:7984 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026