Almedio Inc. (7859) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥5.55B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 98.64K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: -66.67%
• EPS Growth: -108.79%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 310
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Hardware, Equipment & Parts
• EPS (TTM): -12.42
• Shares Outstanding: 20,806,316
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 115,930
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 98,640
• PEG Ratio: -0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.04
• P/FCF Ratio: 33.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥260.00 ▲(64.56% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/04/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial stability (strong balance sheet and positive operating cash flow) and bullish technical momentum. These positives are tempered by recent deterioration in revenue/margins and weak valuation signals due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

A high equity ratio and low leverage reduce refinancing and solvency risk over the medium term. This financial conservatism preserves capacity to fund operations, absorb shocks, and pursue selective investments or working-capital needs without forcing distressed asset sales.

Operating Cash Generation

Sustained positive operating cash flow underpins operational durability by funding day-to-day needs and supporting capex or debt service. Over 2-6 months this cash generation provides financial flexibility to navigate cyclical demand and to prioritize high-return investments.

Historically Healthy Margins

Historically robust gross and net margins point to structural cost efficiencies or pricing power in core products. Even with recent softness, such margin buffers help absorb revenue shocks and support quicker margin recovery as sales stabilize or operational initiatives take effect.

Negative Factors

Sharp Revenue Decline

A ~65% decline in reported revenue is a material structural headwind that erodes scale and operating leverage. Over the coming months this reduces cash conversion potential, stresses fixed-cost absorption, and may necessitate strategic repricing, cost restructuring, or portfolio adjustments.

Margin Deterioration

Weakening EBIT/EBITDA margins reduce the firm's ability to generate distributable cash and reinvest in growth. Persistent margin compression signals rising costs or pricing pressure, which can undermine free cash flow and limit capacity for capital allocation over the medium term.

Fluctuating Free Cash Flow

Significant and variable capex driving FCF volatility constrains liquidity planning and strategic flexibility. Even with positive operating cash flow, uneven free cash flow can force timing delays in investments or increase reliance on external funding during months of high spend.

Almedio Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Almedio Inc. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of test tapes and test discs in Japan. It operates through Insulating Material, Storage Solution, Archive, Industrial Solution, and Nano Material segments. The Insulating Material segment manufactures and sells refractory materials, thermal insulators, and related products. The Storage Solution segment develops, manufactures, and sells optical drives mounted. The Archive segment preserves information such as documents, images, pictures, etc.; provides optical disc archive; and offers digitalization of information, recording, and preservation. The Industrial Solution segment develops, manufactures, and sells test discs. The Nano Material segment develops, produces, and processes nanomaterial products, such as carbon nano fiber/ carbon microfiber, synthetic graphene powder, and high modulus polypropylene CNF pellets for aviation / space, automobile, medical products, and sports / leisure goods industries. The company research, develops, manufactures, and sells measuring instruments for optical media and industrial equipment for the optical disc drives. In addition, it provides attestation tests for the DVD verification laboratory; and tests for various kinds of discs. The company was formerly known as A-BEX and changed its name to Almedio Inc. in March 1997. Almedio Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Kunitachi, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Almedio Inc. generates revenue through a combination of software sales, subscription services, and consulting fees. The company offers its software products on a licensing model, allowing businesses to purchase licenses for their data analytics tools. In addition, Almedio provides subscription-based services that give clients access to ongoing software updates, support, and additional features. The consulting division contributes to revenue by providing expert services to help clients implement and optimize their data strategies. Significant partnerships with other technology firms and industry leaders enhance Almedio's market presence and can lead to collaborative projects, further boosting revenue streams.

Almedio Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are solid overall: a strong balance sheet (high equity ratio, low leverage) and consistently positive operating cash flow support stability. Offsetting this, the latest period shows declining revenue and weakening EBIT/EBITDA margins, plus fluctuating free cash flow due to capex.

Income Statement

Almedio Inc. has shown strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from 2023 to 2024, but a decline in 2025. Gross and net profit margins are healthy, indicating efficient cost management. However, the recent decline in revenue and margins compared to the previous year highlights potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, suggesting a need for operational improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a high equity ratio, suggesting financial stability. A low debt-to-equity ratio indicates conservative leverage, reducing financial risk. The return on equity has been positive, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. However, the decline in total assets over the latest period is a point of concern that may impact future growth.

Cash Flow

Almedio Inc. has generated consistent positive operating cash flows, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. However, the free cash flow has fluctuated, primarily due to significant capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio shows room for improvement in converting profits into cash flows. The recent decline in free cash flow growth rate necessitates careful management of expenses and investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.46B	5.80B	11.56B	4.94B	3.27B	2.68B
Gross Profit	1.39B	2.11B	4.99B	1.56B	918.77M	798.10M
EBITDA	285.02M	1.05B	3.42B	554.14M	106.70M	-3.94M
Net Income	-68.62M	476.40M	2.33B	164.06M	-39.79M	-135.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.98B	9.69B	9.76B	5.81B	4.35B	3.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.43B	4.10B	3.95B	1.46B	1.54B	1.55B
Total Debt	541.31M	545.32M	423.77M	792.13M	757.28M	346.11M
Total Liabilities	1.17B	1.48B	2.20B	2.42B	1.60B	965.53M
Stockholders Equity	7.81B	8.21B	7.55B	3.39B	2.75B	2.51B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	178.87M	1.18B	-539.52M	-619.39M	-90.61M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	866.45M	2.25B	447.85M	-280.72M	45.22M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-698.72M	-1.28B	-1.05B	-347.06M	-135.26M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-76.71M	1.40B	439.00M	547.89M	-41.01M

Almedio Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 158.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7859, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 158 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 206.75, below the 50-day MA of 186.76, and below the 200-day MA of 205.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.30 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:7859.

Almedio Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6424	75 Outperform	¥4.14B	9.02	―	2.17%	-15.50%	-56.40%
7859	67 Neutral	¥5.55B	-11.29	―	―	-66.67%	-108.79%
6837	65 Neutral	¥4.28B	17.93	―	3.77%	2.03%	-23.50%
6629	64 Neutral	¥13.72B	-1,837.21	1.21%	0.97%	2.36%	-72.81%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
6926	46 Neutral	¥4.56B	-2.53	―	―	-6.31%	-64.22%