Almedio Inc. (7859) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥3.83B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 98.64K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: -66.67%
• EPS Growth: -108.79%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 310
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Hardware, Equipment & Parts
• EPS (TTM): -8.85
• Shares Outstanding: 20,806,316
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 115,930
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 98,640
• PEG Ratio: -0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.04
• P/FCF Ratio: 33.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥202.00 ▲(27.85% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by stable underlying financial quality (strong balance sheet and positive operating cash flow), partially offset by the latest revenue/margin softness and uneven free cash flow. Technically, momentum is constructive but appears near-term stretched (high RSI) and still below longer-term averages. Valuation is a key drag due to the negative P/E and lack of dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Strong balance sheet / low leverage

High equity ratio and low debt-to-equity provide durable financial flexibility, lowering default risk and preserving capacity to fund R&D, platform improvements, or strategic M&A. This conservatism supports stability through cyclical troughs and strengthens long-term creditor and partner confidence.

Consistent positive operating cash flow

Reliable operating cash generation underpins self-funding of operations and recurring investment in product development. Over 2–6 months this supports predictable working-capital management, reduces refinancing risk, and enables sustained support for subscription and consulting operations without heavy external financing.

Diversified revenue streams

A mix of licensing, subscriptions and consulting produces both recurring and project revenues, lowering revenue volatility. Strategic partnerships expand distribution and co-development opportunities, improving customer reach and long-term retention—structural advantages for steady growth and margin resilience.

Negative Factors

Sharp recent revenue and EPS declines

Severe revenue and EPS contraction signals either loss of demand, client churn, or failed product execution. Such structural deterioration erodes scale economies, weakens pricing power, and limits reinvestment capacity, making margin recovery and sustainable growth over the next months materially more challenging.

Fluctuating free cash flow due to capex

Volatile free cash flow driven by uneven capex undermines predictable internal funding for growth initiatives. This variability can constrain discretionary spending, delay product roadmaps, and increase reliance on external financing, reducing strategic optionality and raising execution risk over time.

Decline in total assets / potential capacity erosion

A shrinking asset base may indicate reduced investment, asset sales, or shrinking scale, limiting delivery capacity for software, analytics services and consulting. Over months this can impair revenue recovery, reduce backlog fulfillment ability, and weaken competitive positioning versus peers investing to expand offerings.

Almedio Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Almedio Inc. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of test tapes and test discs in Japan. It operates through Insulating Material, Storage Solution, Archive, Industrial Solution, and Nano Material segments. The Insulating Material segment manufactures and sells refractory materials, thermal insulators, and related products. The Storage Solution segment develops, manufactures, and sells optical drives mounted. The Archive segment preserves information such as documents, images, pictures, etc.; provides optical disc archive; and offers digitalization of information, recording, and preservation. The Industrial Solution segment develops, manufactures, and sells test discs. The Nano Material segment develops, produces, and processes nanomaterial products, such as carbon nano fiber/ carbon microfiber, synthetic graphene powder, and high modulus polypropylene CNF pellets for aviation / space, automobile, medical products, and sports / leisure goods industries. The company research, develops, manufactures, and sells measuring instruments for optical media and industrial equipment for the optical disc drives. In addition, it provides attestation tests for the DVD verification laboratory; and tests for various kinds of discs. The company was formerly known as A-BEX and changed its name to Almedio Inc. in March 1997. Almedio Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Kunitachi, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Almedio Inc. generates revenue through a combination of software sales, subscription services, and consulting fees. The company offers its software products on a licensing model, allowing businesses to purchase licenses for their data analytics tools. In addition, Almedio provides subscription-based services that give clients access to ongoing software updates, support, and additional features. The consulting division contributes to revenue by providing expert services to help clients implement and optimize their data strategies. Significant partnerships with other technology firms and industry leaders enhance Almedio's market presence and can lead to collaborative projects, further boosting revenue streams.

Almedio Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are stable: a strong balance sheet (high equity ratio, low debt-to-equity) and consistently positive operating cash flow support resilience. Offsetting this, recent revenue and margin deterioration and fluctuating free cash flow point to weakening momentum and execution risk.

Income Statement

Almedio Inc. has shown strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from 2023 to 2024, but a decline in 2025. Gross and net profit margins are healthy, indicating efficient cost management. However, the recent decline in revenue and margins compared to the previous year highlights potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, suggesting a need for operational improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a high equity ratio, suggesting financial stability. A low debt-to-equity ratio indicates conservative leverage, reducing financial risk. The return on equity has been positive, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. However, the decline in total assets over the latest period is a point of concern that may impact future growth.

Cash Flow

Almedio Inc. has generated consistent positive operating cash flows, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. However, the free cash flow has fluctuated, primarily due to significant capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio shows room for improvement in converting profits into cash flows. The recent decline in free cash flow growth rate necessitates careful management of expenses and investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.46B	5.80B	11.56B	4.94B	3.27B	2.68B
Gross Profit	1.39B	2.11B	4.99B	1.56B	918.77M	798.10M
EBITDA	285.02M	1.05B	3.42B	554.14M	106.70M	-3.94M
Net Income	-68.62M	476.40M	2.33B	164.06M	-39.79M	-135.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.98B	9.69B	9.76B	5.81B	4.35B	3.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.43B	4.10B	3.95B	1.46B	1.54B	1.55B
Total Debt	541.31M	545.32M	423.77M	792.13M	757.28M	346.11M
Total Liabilities	1.17B	1.48B	2.20B	2.42B	1.60B	965.53M
Stockholders Equity	7.81B	8.21B	7.55B	3.39B	2.75B	2.51B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	178.87M	1.18B	-539.52M	-619.39M	-90.61M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	866.45M	2.25B	447.85M	-280.72M	45.22M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-698.72M	-1.28B	-1.05B	-347.06M	-135.26M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-76.71M	1.40B	439.00M	547.89M	-41.01M

Almedio Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 158.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7859, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 158 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 181.15, below the 50-day MA of 167.44, and below the 200-day MA of 209.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 5.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:7859.

Almedio Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
6424	75 Outperform	¥4.23B	7.19	―	2.17%	-15.50%	-56.40%
6837	65 Neutral	¥4.26B	9.57	―	3.77%	2.03%	-23.50%
7859	64 Neutral	¥3.83B	-20.50	―	―	-66.67%	-108.79%
6629	64 Neutral	¥16.55B	-2,216.21	1.21%	0.97%	2.36%	-72.81%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
6926	46 Neutral	¥4.43B	-2.35	―	―	-6.31%	-64.22%