Transaction Co., Ltd. (7818) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥71.26B
• Dividend Yield: 2.57%
• Average Volume (3M): 182.34K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: 10.64%
• EPS Growth: -7.53%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 481
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Household & Personal Products
• EPS (TTM): 21.65
• Shares Outstanding: 57,550,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 207,660
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 182,340
• PEG Ratio: 1.81
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.57
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 72.6
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥29.80B

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,432.00 ▲(30.42% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/04/26

The score is driven primarily by strong fundamentals—improving margins, strong ROE, and extremely low leverage—partially offset by uneven cash-flow history. Technicals are mildly positive but not yet supported by longer-term trends, while valuation is fair with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Improving operating margins

Sustained expansion of EBIT margin to ~22% implies stronger operational efficiency and pricing power. Higher, durable margins increase cash generation capacity, improve resilience to cost shocks, and enable reinvestment or shareholder returns without relying on leverage.

Conservative balance sheet

Extremely low leverage and rising equity provide financial flexibility and materially lower refinancing and liquidity risk. This conservative capital structure supports capital allocation optionality during downturns and reduces the chance that debt servicing constrains long-term strategy.

Revenue acceleration with strong ROE

Accelerating revenue alongside ~20% ROE indicates effective market positioning and high capital efficiency. The combination supports sustainable internal funding for growth, signals competitive product-market fit, and underpins longer-term earnings durability if trends persist.

Negative Factors

Volatile cash flows

Intermittent sharp declines in operating and free cash flow reduce predictability of internal funding for capex, acquisitions, or dividends. Even with recent rebound, this uneven conversion history raises the risk that future investments or payouts may be constrained in weaker cycles.

Historic revenue volatility

Prior periods of revenue decline and uneven growth suggest sensitivity to market cycles or client demand shifts. Persistent variability complicates long-term planning, weakens predictability of scale benefits, and may hamper consistent reinvestment or margin expansion strategies.

Operationally driven returns risk

Low leverage means the firm's high ROE stems from operational performance rather than financial engineering. That is positive until margins or demand weaken; any sustained operational pressure would immediately erode ROE and leave limited balance-sheet offsets to stabilize returns.

Transaction Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TRANSACTION CO.,Ltd. plans, designs, manufactures, and sells consumer products in Japan and internationally. The company offers event products, such as T-shirts, towels, and penlights; animation or game goods; sales promotion goods; notebooks; bags and tumbler bottles, and stationery or leather accessory, as well as health care and beauty miscellaneous goods products, such as masks and mirror pouches under the MARKLESS STYLE brand; eco bags under the Motteru brand name; belt stopping bags under the gowell brand; and petware and goods under the Calulu brand name. It also provides wet tissues, cooling sheets, personal humidifiers and desk fans, corporate novelty and souvenir products, and electronic and heating-type cigarettes. The company was founded in 1987 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

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Transaction Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and improving profitability (EBIT margin rising to ~22% by 2025) and a very conservative balance sheet with minimal leverage support a high score. The main offset is cash-flow volatility (notably the 2022 drop and 2024 free-cash-flow decline) despite a strong 2025 rebound.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded strongly over the past several years, with growth accelerating in 2023–2025, indicating healthy demand and good execution. Profitability is a clear strength: gross margin has been consistently stable around ~39%, while operating profitability has improved meaningfully (EBIT margin rising from ~14% in 2020 to ~22% in 2025). Net margin is also solid (~15% in 2024–2025), supporting strong earnings quality. The main weakness is growth volatility earlier in the period (including a revenue decline in 2021) and only modest growth in 2024 before re-accelerating.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears very conservative, with extremely low leverage and steadily rising equity over time. Debt relative to equity is minimal (roughly 2% in 2025, down from ~9% in 2020), which provides significant financial flexibility and lowers refinancing risk. Returns on equity are consistently strong (about ~20% in 2023–2025), suggesting the company is generating attractive profits without relying on heavy borrowing. A watch item is that strong ROE paired with very low leverage implies performance is driven by operations—any sustained margin or demand pressure would be felt directly in returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally strong: operating cash flow and free cash flow were robust in 2023 and 2025, and free cash flow has been close to net income in recent years (around ~93% in 2025), indicating good earnings conversion. However, cash flow has shown notable volatility, most clearly in 2022 when operating cash flow dropped sharply and coverage versus net income was weak, and in 2024 when free cash flow declined materially versus the prior year. The rebound in 2025 is a positive signal, but the uneven pattern lowers confidence versus the very consistent profitability profile.

Breakdown	Aug 2025	Aug 2024	Aug 2023	Aug 2022	Aug 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	27.45B	25.05B	22.96B	18.27B	17.14B
Gross Profit	10.79B	9.81B	9.04B	7.16B	6.65B
EBITDA	5.94B	5.41B	4.79B	3.35B	2.94B
Net Income	4.08B	3.76B	3.31B	2.20B	2.06B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	23.80B	22.32B	20.60B	16.65B	14.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.61B	5.99B	6.87B	4.63B	5.45B
Total Debt	434.61M	768.14M	763.65M	622.45M	802.02M
Total Liabilities	4.13B	4.17B	4.36B	3.30B	3.16B
Stockholders Equity	19.66B	18.15B	16.24B	13.35B	11.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.01B	2.31B	3.58B	190.44M	2.28B
Operating Cash Flow	4.25B	3.02B	3.77B	239.58M	2.31B
Investing Cash Flow	-547.22M	-1.72B	-1.48B	-213.75M	-465.36M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.95B	-1.52B	-555.70M	-819.30M	-709.84M

Transaction Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1098.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:7818, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1098 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1280.25, below the 50-day MA of 1241.34, and below the 200-day MA of 1174.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:7818.

Transaction Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
7818	80 Outperform	¥71.26B	12.40	―	2.57%	10.64%	-7.53%
4919	71 Outperform	¥84.86B	22.92	7.23%	3.53%	3.05%	-32.61%
4933	71 Outperform	¥19.16B	33.88	―	0.91%	13.12%	27.53%
4923	66 Neutral	¥41.99B	6.92	―	1.81%	0.22%	4.15%
3180	64 Neutral	¥18.01B	22.30	―	1.11%	13.45%	-5.58%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
6630	48 Neutral	¥38.02B	-33.63	―	1.23%	-14.80%	89.50%

Transaction Co., Ltd. Corporate Events

Transaction to Acquire Figure Maker Thousand, Expanding Entertainment IP Business

Transaction Co., Ltd. has resolved to acquire all issued shares of Thousand Inc., an OEM figure manufacturer, making Thousand and its figure brand subsidiary AliceGlint consolidated subsidiaries within the group. The move is aimed at accelerating Transaction’s “entertainment (IP) business” growth strategy, enhancing product development capabilities, and reinforcing its entry into SPA-style direct sales via stores and e-commerce.

By integrating Thousand’s expertise in high-end and prize figures and AliceGlint’s globally recognized brand with Transaction’s existing planning, printing, and sales networks, the company expects synergies in new product creation, procurement, and distribution. The existing presidents of Thousand and AliceGlint will remain in place to ensure operational continuity as the businesses are integrated, positioning the group to better differentiate its offerings amid rising demand for diverse, high-quality fan goods.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7818) stock is a Buy with a Yen1399.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transaction Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7818 Stock Forecast page.

Transaction Co. Delivers Strong Q1 Earnings and Confirms Moderate Full-Year Growth Outlook

Transaction Co., Ltd. reported solid first-quarter results for the three months ended November 30, 2025, with net sales rising 12.1% year on year to ¥7.97 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent increasing 17.0% to ¥1.22 billion, reflecting improved profitability and robust demand. The company maintained a strong financial position with an equity-to-asset ratio of 82.9% and confirmed its earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending August 31, 2026, projecting 7.5% net sales growth and a modest 1.0% increase in full-year profit, while implementing a 2-for-1 stock split and signaling a lower annual dividend on a post-split basis, which together suggest a focus on liquidity and longer-term shareholder returns despite only moderate profit growth expectations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7818) stock is a Buy with a Yen1382.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transaction Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7818 Stock Forecast page.

Transaction Co. Delivers Double-Digit Q1 Profit Growth and Confirms FY2026 Outlook After Stock Split

Transaction Co., Ltd. reported robust results for the three months ended November 30, 2025, with net sales rising 12.1% year on year to ¥7,966 million and profit attributable to owners of parent increasing 17.0% to ¥1,222 million, supported by double-digit growth in operating and ordinary profits and higher comprehensive income. The company maintained a solid financial position with total assets of ¥23,586 million and an equity-to-asset ratio of 82.9%, confirmed its dividend stance following a 2-for-1 stock split by forecasting a total annual dividend of ¥30 per share for the year ending August 31, 2026, and left its full-year guidance unchanged, projecting modest single-digit growth in sales and profits, signaling steady but moderated earnings expansion for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7818) stock is a Buy with a Yen1230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transaction Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7818 Stock Forecast page.

Transaction Co. Expands Reach of Shareholder Benefits After Stock Split

Transaction Co., Ltd. will continue its semiannual shareholder benefit program following a two-for-one stock split executed with an August 31, 2025 record date, keeping the eligibility threshold at 500 shares and thereby effectively broadening access to the benefits without changing conditions. For shareholders recorded in Japan holding 500 or more shares as of February 28, 2026, the company will distribute a digital notebook and a laptop bag starting in late April 2026, a move aimed at deepening understanding of its product lineup, reinforcing shareholder loyalty, and cultivating long-term ‘fan’ shareholders by showcasing its functional, stylish, and portable offerings.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7818) stock is a Buy with a Yen1334.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transaction Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7818 Stock Forecast page.

Transaction Completes Restricted Stock Treasury Share Disposal for Executive Compensation

Transaction Co., Ltd. has completed the allotment and payment procedures for the disposal of its treasury shares under a restricted stock compensation plan approved by its board earlier this month. The company issued 60,000 common shares without cash consideration to four internal directors and 4,500 shares to three directors of its subsidiaries at a disposal price of ¥1,062 per share, based on the market closing price prior to the board resolution. The move, totaling ¥68.5 million in notional value, is designed to align management and subsidiary leadership incentives more closely with shareholder interests and to strengthen the company’s medium- to long‑term governance and performance orientation by increasing equity-based compensation for key executives.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:7818) stock is a Buy with a Yen1334.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transaction Co., Ltd. stock, see the JP:7818 Stock Forecast page.