Orchestra Holdings Inc. (6533) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥12.73B
• Dividend Yield: 0.91%
• Average Volume (3M): 14.06K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 67.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: 15.68%
• EPS Growth: -64.57%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 1,111
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Advertising Agencies
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 10,034,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 13,760
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 14,056
• PEG Ratio: -0.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥1,410.00 ▲(26.34% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (notably cash flow conversion and solid growth) and a favorable technical uptrend. These positives are meaningfully offset by expensive valuation (high P/E) and only a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained ~15.9% year‑over‑year revenue growth reflects durable demand expansion and successful client/service scaling. Over 2–6 months this supports reinvestment capacity, pricing leverage opportunities, and a larger addressable base to absorb operational fixed costs and drive long‑term topline resilience.

Cash Generation Quality

Operating cash flow and free cash flow convert at over three times reported net income, indicating high cash quality. This durable cash conversion funds capex, working capital and strategic initiatives internally, reducing financing reliance and enabling consistent investment or shareholder returns over months.

Balance Sheet Resilience

Moderate leverage (D/E 0.51) and a 44.3% equity ratio signal a robust capital structure. This provides financial flexibility to absorb shocks, pursue opportunistic M&A or fund growth initiatives without overdependence on external debt, enhancing stability across a multi‑month horizon.

Negative Factors

Declining Net Profitability

A material drop in net margin implies rising operating costs or shrinking pricing power versus peers. Persistently compressed net margins erode retained earnings and free cash available for reinvestment or dividends, making long‑term growth funding and return profiles more constrained over the next several months.

Lower Return on Equity

ROE falling to 5.8% suggests the company is generating limited returns on shareholders' capital. Over time this signals potential inefficiencies in capital allocation and weaker profitability relative to equity employed, which can impair ability to attract capital and finance growth without dilutive or costly measures.

Earnings Volatility / EPS Decline

A roughly 65% decline in EPS year‑over‑year points to significant earnings volatility despite revenue growth. Such volatility undermines predictability for investment, dividend policy and strategic planning, increasing execution risk and making multi‑month forecasting and capital allocation more uncertain.

Orchestra Holdings Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Orchestra Holdings Inc. engages in the digital transformation, digital marketing, and other businesses in Japan. Its solutions include IT engineer services, artificial and business intelligence support, cloud integration, system development, and other services. The company is also involved in the provision of digital marketing support; venture capital services to entrepreneurs; internet and digital advertising; web design; content marketing; SEO services; and merger and acquisition advisory services. In addition, it develops Urala, an app for fortune telling chat consultations; Skill Navi, a SaaS talent management system; and TechReach, a job information site for freelance engineers. The company was formerly known as Digital Identity Inc. and changed its name to Orchestra Holdings Inc. in July 2017. Orchestra Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Orchestra Holdings generates revenue through multiple streams, including software licensing, subscription services, and advertisement revenues from its digital platforms. The company's gaming division contributes significantly to its earnings through in-game purchases and microtransactions, while its multimedia content service generates income from subscription fees and licensing agreements. Additionally, strategic partnerships with other tech firms and entertainment companies enhance its market presence and create new monetization opportunities, allowing Orchestra Holdings to capitalize on emerging trends in the digital landscape.

Orchestra Holdings Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (~15.9% YoY) and excellent cash generation (operating cash flow to net income 3.38; free cash flow to net income 3.29) support a high score. Balance sheet leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity 0.51) with a solid equity ratio (44.3%). Offsetting factors include weaker profitability, with net margin declining to 2.4% and ROE down to 5.8%.

Income Statement

Orchestra Holdings Inc. has shown a solid revenue growth rate of approximately 15.9% year-over-year from 2023 to 2024, indicating strong business expansion. The gross profit margin stands at 46.2%, suggesting effective cost management. However, net profit margin decreased from 3.9% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024, which might signal rising operational costs or competitive pressures. The EBIT margin is stable at 5.7%, while the EBITDA margin is higher at 9.4%, reflecting strong earnings before depreciation and amortization.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is robust, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.51, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio is 44.3%, showing substantial equity funding. Return on equity (ROE) decreased to 5.8% in 2024, highlighting a need for more efficient profit generation relative to shareholder equity. The company's asset base has grown steadily, supporting its operational expansion.

Cash Flow

Strong cash flow performance is evident with a free cash flow growth rate of 12.5% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 3.38, indicating excellent cash generation capability from operations. Furthermore, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 3.29, reflecting efficient conversion of net income into free cash flow, despite higher capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.10B	14.04B	12.11B	10.38B	16.64B	11.83B
Gross Profit	6.65B	6.49B	5.87B	5.10B	3.88B	2.51B
EBITDA	1.25B	1.36B	1.21B	1.72B	1.45B	806.14M
Net Income	183.77M	331.75M	474.00M	853.71M	757.23M	435.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.56B	12.82B	12.71B	11.41B	10.56B	4.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.51B	3.28B	3.59B	3.02B	4.96B	1.41B
Total Debt	3.98B	2.88B	3.01B	1.71B	1.53B	791.16M
Total Liabilities	7.51B	6.70B	6.68B	5.67B	5.62B	2.80B
Stockholders Equity	5.60B	5.68B	5.63B	5.33B	4.47B	1.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	357.00M	1.09B	972.00M	-533.72M	1.11B	586.65M
Operating Cash Flow	422.00M	1.12B	1.00B	-484.54M	1.11B	660.49M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.13B	-380.87M	-2.00B	-993.87M	-32.18M	-62.88M
Financing Cash Flow	916.00M	-716.78M	1.21B	-413.55M	2.46B	127.37M

Orchestra Holdings Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1116.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:6533, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1116 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1136.10, below the 50-day MA of 1170.68, and above the 200-day MA of 858.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 25.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.36 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:6533.

Orchestra Holdings Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2173	79 Outperform	¥15.33B	9.98	―	2.46%	6.38%	18.64%
6533	73 Outperform	¥12.73B	67.49	―	0.91%	15.68%	-64.57%
7050	73 Outperform	¥13.06B	11.68	―	4.08%	51.26%	296.98%
6045	68 Neutral	¥14.41B	21.70	―	2.19%	14.43%	10.99%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
6094	46 Neutral	¥9.46B	33.37	―	―	-2.68%	91.68%
9235	43 Neutral	¥4.73B	-10.03	―	―	49.01%	-21.56%

Orchestra Holdings Inc. Corporate Events

Orchestra Holdings Reports Revenue Growth in Q3 2025

Orchestra Holdings Inc. reported its consolidated financial results for the first nine months of 2025, showing a revenue increase of 15.8% year-on-year, reaching 11,748 million yen. The company also noted a slight increase in profit attributable to owners of the parent, which rose by 7.1% to 617 million yen. The financial position of the company remains stable, with total assets at 15,842 million yen and a slight decrease in the equity ratio. The company has also revised its consolidated forecast for the full year of 2025, reflecting adjustments in expected revenue and profit figures.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:6533) stock is a Hold with a Yen825.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orchestra Holdings Inc. stock, see the JP:6533 Stock Forecast page.