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Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (JP:5301)
:5301

Tokai Carbon Co (5301) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:5301

Tokai Carbon Co

(5301)

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Neutral 63 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,094.00
▲(8.53% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by moderate financial performance—steady operating cash flow but volatile earnings and recent revenue declines—partly offset by supportive valuation (low P/E and a ~2.9% dividend). Technicals are mixed but lean weak near term, limiting the overall score.
Positive Factors
Consistent operating cash flow
Sustained positive operating cash flow provides a durable liquidity base to fund working capital and capital expenditure cycles in heavy industry. Over 2–6 months this underpins resilience to demand swings in steel and tires, supports servicing debt, and enables measured reinvestment despite uneven free cash flow.
Core product market position
Supplying graphite electrodes and carbon black places the company in essential, recurring B2B value chains (steel EAFs and tire/rubber manufacturing). This structural demand from industrial customers creates repeat purchases, technical specialization and sticky relationships that support steady long-term revenue streams.
Operational resilience shown by regained profitability
The ability to recover to profitability after a large loss demonstrates operational flexibility and cost control. Over a multi-month horizon this indicates management and operations can adjust to cyclical shocks, preserving core margins and keeping the business viable through industry downturns.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Material debt levels and increasing leverage reduce financial flexibility and heighten sensitivity to weaker demand or higher interest costs. Over months this constrains the company's ability to accelerate deleveraging, pursue strategic investments, or absorb another adverse cycle in steel and automotive markets without pressuring cash.
Declining revenue trend
A falling top line erodes scale benefits and can pressure gross margins and fixed-cost absorption. Persisting revenue decline over several quarters signals weaker end-market demand in steel and tires and reduces headroom to rebuild margins or rapidly cut leverage without structural demand improvements.
Earnings volatility
Large swings in net income indicate exposure to cyclical input costs, pricing swings, or volume variability. This volatility complicates medium-term planning, capital allocation, and consistent shareholder returns, and raises execution risk if another adverse cycle hits core steel or tire customer segments.

Tokai Carbon Co (5301) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Tokai Carbon Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTokai Carbon Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells carbon-related products and services in Japan. It offers graphite electrodes for use in electric furnaces, such as direct current, alternating current, and refining furnaces; and carbon black, including SEAST, TOKABLACK, Aqua Black, and Thermal black varieties, which are used to reinforce the rubber in tires, as well as used as a black pigment in various black-colored products. It also provides fine carbon products comprising special graphite products that include isotropic graphite G/HK series, extruded graphite, SiC coated carbon, C/C composite, glassy carbon, solid SiC, carbon brush, and resin-impregnated graphite products, as well as furnace materials for silicon semiconductor, solar cell manufacturing, and other applications; and industrial furnaces and related products, which comprise silicon carbide heating elements, resistors, recryte SiC structural materials, and industrial furnaces for heat treatment of ceramics, electronic components, metals, glass, and others. In addition, it provides carbon and graphite products and solutions for various smelting applications; and friction materials, including sintered metal friction, paper friction, carbonaceous friction, sliding, resin, woven, and soft mold materials to regulate power transmission in industrial and construction machinery, as well as for use in brake and clutch parts of vehicles, such as motorbikes, trucks, buses, and trains. Further, the company offers anode materials for secondary lithium-ion batteries that are used in smartphones and electric cars. The company was formerly known as Tokai Electrode Mfg. Co. Ltd. and changed its name to Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. in 1975. Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyTokai Carbon generates revenue primarily through the sale of its core products, which include carbon black used in tires and rubber products, graphite electrodes for electric arc furnaces in steel production, and other specialty carbon materials. The company has established key partnerships with manufacturers in the automotive and steel industries, which are critical to its revenue streams. Additionally, Tokai Carbon benefits from economies of scale in production and a strong global distribution network, allowing it to optimize its pricing strategies and enhance profitability. Fluctuations in demand for its products, particularly in the steel and automotive sectors, alongside the global prices of raw materials, also play a significant role in its earnings.

Tokai Carbon Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial performance is moderate: operating cash flow is consistently positive and remained strong in 2024–2025, but earnings have been volatile (sharp loss in 2024 followed by a return to profit in 2025) and revenue has been declining in 2024–2025. The balance sheet is workable but not conservative, with leverage increasing again in 2024–2025.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Profitability has been positive in most years, with solid operating performance in 2022–2023 and a return to positive earnings in 2025 after a sharp loss in 2024. However, the earnings profile is volatile (large net loss in 2024) and recent top-line momentum is weak, with revenue declining in 2024–2025 after prior growth.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
The company carries a meaningful debt load (debt rising to ~216.6B vs. equity ~318.4B in 2025), implying moderate leverage for the business. Equity has improved versus earlier years, supporting the balance sheet, but leverage increased again in 2024–2025 and the 2024 loss pressured returns, leaving less cushion if industry conditions soften.
Cash Flow
64
Positive
Operating cash flow has been consistently positive across the period and remained strong in 2024–2025, which helps underpin liquidity through cycles. Free cash flow is more uneven (negative in 2022 and relatively modest in 2024–2025 versus revenue), suggesting ongoing capital intensity and less consistent cash available for rapid deleveraging or shareholder returns.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue337.27B322.96B350.11B363.95B340.37B258.87B
Gross Profit81.30B74.85B80.64B98.73B94.05B70.73B
EBITDA-5.70B58.44B-3.95B80.78B78.14B54.52B
Net Income-51.86B20.08B-56.74B25.47B22.42B16.11B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets606.57B664.03B640.75B640.00B576.47B512.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments72.22B90.16B92.21B77.47B70.91B78.86B
Total Debt198.54B216.57B199.11B166.64B171.45B168.25B
Total Liabilities298.52B311.18B315.60B279.90B275.60B255.94B
Stockholders Equity274.56B318.36B289.56B324.49B268.82B229.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.0014.77B9.36B12.46B-4.01B8.54B
Operating Cash Flow0.0055.87B64.47B62.07B41.20B38.07B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-51.05B-70.78B-47.63B-49.90B-35.28B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-7.69B9.41B-14.51B-10.63B1.21B

Tokai Carbon Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1008.00
Price Trends
50DMA
1034.19
Positive
100DMA
1023.41
Positive
200DMA
1009.19
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
4.10
Positive
RSI
53.70
Neutral
STOCH
64.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5301, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1008 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1074.07, below the 50-day MA of 1034.19, and below the 200-day MA of 1009.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:5301.

Tokai Carbon Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
¥29.74B11.373.21%9.61%173.72%
75
Outperform
¥55.77B11.5610.88%4.46%-1.14%34.15%
74
Outperform
¥38.97B26.793.24%1.83%-8.54%
72
Outperform
¥31.64B15.353.84%-3.41%-12.83%
69
Neutral
¥61.84B17.374.32%-31.99%-44.75%
63
Neutral
¥237.63B11.84-14.04%3.06%-7.36%-574.56%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:5301
Tokai Carbon Co
1,113.50
224.11
25.20%
JP:5302
Nippon Carbon Co
5,050.00
1,151.02
29.52%
JP:4027
Tayca Corporation
1,823.00
425.99
30.49%
JP:4064
Nippon Carbide Industries Company,Incorporated
3,160.00
1,350.95
74.68%
JP:4092
Nippon Chemical Industrial Co., Ltd.
3,595.00
1,429.90
66.04%
JP:5304
SEC Carbon Ltd.
2,999.00
923.67
44.51%

Tokai Carbon Co Corporate Events

Tokai Carbon Sharpens Vision 2030 Targets and Capital-Efficient Growth Push
Feb 13, 2026

Tokai Carbon outlined progress on its long-term “Vision 2030,” reaffirming its goal of contributing to a sustainable society through advanced materials and solutions, with 2030 targets of ¥500 billion in net sales, a 20% EBITDA margin, and a 12% ROIC. To reach these goals, it plans to capture AI-driven demand to offset near-term EV weakness, expand capacity in Fine Carbon and Industrial Furnaces, push into new business domains, and pursue eco-focused innovations such as carbon black from end-of-life tires and converting CO2 from waste treatment into solid carbon.

The company is also undertaking drastic structural reforms to turn its Smelting & Lining business into a value-creating unit and is tightening capital efficiency management to lift its valuation metrics. It is targeting an early achievement of a price-to-book ratio above 1.0 by raising ROE above its cost of capital, improving ROIC by segment, optimizing capital structure including the use of debt, and enhancing disclosure and investor relations to support sustained improvements in PER and overall corporate value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5301) stock is a Hold with a Yen991.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Carbon Co stock, see the JP:5301 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Carbon Reshapes Board and Executive Ranks Ahead of FY2025 Shareholders’ Meeting
Feb 12, 2026

Tokai Carbon announced a series of management changes effective March 27, 2026, including the appointment of Akihiko Sato and Tsunayuki Sato as board members overseeing corporate planning, along with two new external directors, Kimiya Sano and Akira Takada. These board appointments, subject to approval at the FY2025 shareholders’ meeting, aim to strengthen corporate planning and governance as the company navigates its next phase of growth.

The company also detailed several retirements and role changes, including the exit of board members such as technology head Shunji Yamamoto and external director Nobumitsu Kambayashi, and the promotion of executives like Atsuhiro Nihei and Yohei Kataoka to executive officer roles in internal auditing and ICT promotion. Additional shifts in executive responsibilities, including for engineering and general affairs functions, signal an organizational realignment intended to bolster oversight, internal controls, and business rebuilding efforts, with implications for operational efficiency and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5301) stock is a Hold with a Yen991.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Carbon Co stock, see the JP:5301 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Carbon to Refinance Subordinated Loan With New Hybrid Bond Issue
Feb 12, 2026

Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. plans to make an early repayment of its ¥25 billion subordinated loan, originally borrowed in 2019 to help finance the acquisition of COBEX HoldCo GmbH and affiliates, ahead of the initial optional repayment date in December 2026. To replace this funding, the company will issue a new series of yen-denominated fourth subordinated hybrid bonds, for which it has filed a revised shelf registration with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau.

The new hybrid bonds will have both debt- and equity-like features, including voluntary interest deferral, very long redemption periods, and subordination in liquidation, and are structured to avoid stock dilution while receiving 50 percent equity credit from domestic rating agencies. Tokai Carbon has appointed Nomura Securities as lead manager, alongside several co-lead underwriters, and will set final terms such as issue amount after assessing market demand and interest-rate conditions, signaling a proactive approach to capital structure management and credit profile maintenance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5301) stock is a Hold with a Yen991.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Carbon Co stock, see the JP:5301 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Carbon Swings Back to Profit but Flags Lower Earnings for 2026
Feb 12, 2026

Tokai Carbon reported a 7.8% decline in 2025 net sales to ¥322.96 billion but sharply improved profitability, with operating income up 33.3% to ¥25.85 billion and net income rebounding to ¥20.08 billion from a large loss a year earlier. Profitability ratios strengthened, equity increased, and the equity ratio rose to 47.9%, while operating cash flow stayed solid at ¥50.6 billion despite continued heavy investment outflows.

The company maintained its annual dividend at ¥30 per share for 2025 and plans the same for 2026, implying a higher payout ratio on lower forecast earnings. For 2026, Tokai Carbon guides for modest sales growth to ¥336 billion but expects lower operating and ordinary income and a roughly 50% drop in net income, signaling margin pressure ahead despite a stronger balance sheet, which will be closely watched by shareholders and creditors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5301) stock is a Hold with a Yen991.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Carbon Co stock, see the JP:5301 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Carbon Announces Key Management Changes
Dec 15, 2025

Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. has announced changes in its management team, effective January 1, 2026. These changes involve the appointment of Takashi Masaki as a Member of the Board and Executive Officer, and Hideo Shin as Co-Chief Executive Officer of Tokai COBEX, reflecting a strategic restructuring to enhance leadership and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5301) stock is a Hold with a Yen1047.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Carbon Co stock, see the JP:5301 Stock Forecast page.

Tokai Carbon Co. Announces Reorganization of U.S. Subsidiaries
Nov 25, 2025

Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. has announced a reorganization of its U.S. subsidiaries, integrating three wholly-owned subsidiaries into one entity to enhance business efficiency and competitiveness. The reorganization, effective January 1, 2026, will see the surviving company become a subsidiary of Tokai Carbon US Holdings Inc., strengthening group governance. The impact on the company’s fiscal results is expected to be insignificant.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:5301) stock is a Hold with a Yen1047.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tokai Carbon Co stock, see the JP:5301 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026