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Tokai Carbon Co
(5301)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,722.00
▲(5.51% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is primarily held back by volatile earnings and recent revenue declines despite consistently positive operating cash flow. Technicals show strong trend strength but are extremely overextended, raising pullback risk. Valuation is also a headwind with a high P/E and only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Consistent operating cash flow
Sustained positive operating cash flow across 2024–2025 provides durable liquidity and underpins the business through cycles. Reliable cash generation supports working capital, funds necessary capex for capacity or specialty product qualification, and offers a buffer to service debt and maintain operations during downturns.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue trend
A multi-point revenue decline into 2024–2025 undermines scale economics and reduces pricing leverage. Sustained top-line contraction pressures gross margins and operating leverage, making it harder to cover fixed costs and limiting the company's ability to invest in growth or accelerate deleveraging without reversing the revenue trend.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent operating cash flow
Sustained positive operating cash flow across 2024–2025 provides durable liquidity and underpins the business through cycles. Reliable cash generation supports working capital, funds necessary capex for capacity or specialty product qualification, and offers a buffer to service debt and maintain operations during downturns.
Read all positive factors
Tokai Carbon Co (5301) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥328.12B
Dividend Yield2.28%
Average Volume (3M)1.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.6
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth-6.88%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryJP
Employees4,436
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)87.16
Shares Outstanding225,171,140
10 Day Avg. Volume1,199,100
30 Day Avg. Volume1,362,263
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.65
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio14.01
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥1,800.00Price Target Upside10.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)67.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥363.38B
Tokai Carbon Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd., headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, is a leading provider and manufacturer of a broad spectrum of carbon-based goods and services. The company's offerings include high-performance graphite electrodes, indispensable for electric ...
How the Company Makes Money
Tokai Carbon makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling carbon and graphite materials, with revenues driven by product shipments to industrial customers. A key revenue stream is the sale of graphite electrodes, which are consumable compone...
Tokai Carbon Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 324.33B | 322.96B | 350.11B | 363.95B | 340.37B | 258.87B |
| Gross Profit | 75.26B | 74.85B | 62.21B | 81.49B | 78.25B | 56.04B |
| EBITDA | 67.78B | 66.35B | -3.95B | 80.78B | 78.14B | 54.27B |
| Net Income | 18.61B | 20.08B | -56.73B | 25.47B | 22.42B | 16.11B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 657.65B | 664.03B | 658.78B | 640.00B | 576.47B | 512.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 86.29B | 90.16B | 92.21B | 77.47B | 70.91B | 78.86B |
| Total Debt | 204.25B | 207.34B | 199.11B | 171.28B | 171.45B | 171.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 306.44B | 311.18B | 333.62B | 279.90B | 275.59B | 255.93B |
| Stockholders Equity | 316.78B | 318.36B | 289.56B | 324.49B | 268.83B | 229.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 14.77B | 10.91B | 16.71B | -2.78B | 9.12B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 55.87B | 64.47B | 62.07B | 41.20B | 38.07B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -51.05B | -70.78B | -47.63B | -49.90B | -35.28B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -7.69B | 9.41B | -14.51B | -10.63B | 1.21B |
Tokai Carbon Co Technical Analysis
Neutral
1632.00
Price Trends
1698.34
Negative
1403.32
Positive
1207.64
Positive
Market Momentum
-37.01
Positive
36.12
Neutral
19.41
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:5301, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1632 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1617.60, below the 50-day MA of 1698.34, and above the 200-day MA of 1207.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -37.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:5301.
Tokai Carbon Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | ¥52.19B | 17.89 | ― | 2.32% | 3.45% | 14.39% | |
70 Outperform | ¥52.29B | 11.29 | 8.62% | 4.21% | 3.09% | 22.56% | |
69 Neutral | ¥50.42B | -662.60 | ― | 4.32% | -19.49% | -101.29% | |
67 Neutral | ¥30.17B | 11.46 | ― | 3.21% | 2.43% | 17.78% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | ¥45.32B | -57.84 | ― | 3.24% | 2.94% | -136.45% | |
56 Neutral | ¥328.12B | 17.64 | 6.21% | 2.14% | -6.88% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
JP:5301
Tokai Carbon Co
1,622.00
618.89
61.70%
JP:5302
Nippon Carbon Co
4,865.00
873.03
21.87%
JP:4027
Tayca Corporation
2,395.00
1,147.18
91.94%
JP:4064
Nippon Carbide Industries Company,Incorporated
3,550.00
1,643.62
86.22%
JP:4092
Nippon Chemical Industrial Co., Ltd.
6,110.00
4,025.39
193.10%
JP:5304
SEC Carbon Ltd.
2,602.00
584.19
28.95%
Tokai Carbon Co Corporate Events
Tokai Carbon Assesses Tanoura Plant After Kumamoto Earthquake; No Major Damage Reported
Jul 29, 2026
Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd., a key supplier of isotropic graphite for semiconductors, solar cells, and industrial uses, reported on the impact of the July 28 Kumamoto Earthquake on its Tanoura Plant in Ashikita-machi. The facility plays a central role ...
Tokai Carbon Sets Terms for First Japanese ASR-Linked Stock Acquisition Rights
May 14, 2026
Tokai Carbon has finalized the terms for the first issuance of stock acquisition rights via a third-party allotment linked to a fully committed share repurchase program, following a board resolution on May 13, 2026 and subsequent treasury share pu...
Tokai Carbon Completes ¥15 Billion Share Buyback to Boost Capital Efficiency
May 14, 2026
Tokai Carbon has completed a significant share buyback through the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s off-auction repurchase system ToSTNeT-3, acquiring 11,210,700 common shares, equivalent to 5.25% of its outstanding stock excluding treasury shares. Th...
Tokai Carbon Launches ¥15 Billion Share Buyback via Japanese ASR Structure
May 13, 2026
Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. has approved a share repurchase of up to 11,210,700 common shares, representing about 5.25% of its outstanding stock excluding treasury shares, for a total acquisition value of approximately ¥15 billion. The move is fra...
Tokai Carbon Lifts Dividend Outlook Despite Profit Headwinds in Q1 2026
May 13, 2026
Tokai Carbon reported first-quarter 2026 consolidated net sales of ¥81.7 billion, up 1.7% year on year, but operating income fell 8.9% and net income attributable to shareholders dropped 47.1%, reflecting margin pressure despite modest toplin...
Tokai Carbon Lifts Dividend, Tightens Capital Policy With Cross-Shareholding Cuts
May 13, 2026
Tokai Carbon has overhauled its shareholder return framework, shifting from a 30% dividend payout target to a more generous policy that pays the higher of a roughly 40% payout ratio or a 5% adjusted DOE, while also committing to flexible share buy...
Tokai Carbon Lifts Full-Year 2026 Outlook on AI-Driven Semiconductor Demand
May 13, 2026
Tokai Carbon has revised its consolidated forecast for the first half of 2026, nudging up net sales and profit attributable to owners despite lowering expected operating and ordinary income, as it adjusts to recent performance trends. While Q2 ope...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.