Trend Micro Incorporated (JP:4704)
:4704
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Trend Micro
(4704)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
¥6,906.00
▲(21.41% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/15/26
Score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (debt-free balance sheet, high profitability, and strong cash conversion). This is tempered by mixed technicals (price below key longer-term moving averages) and a valuation that looks somewhat rich on P/E despite a solid dividend. Earnings call messaging supports the longer-term platform transition, but near-term profit pressure and ARR growth slowdown reduce conviction.
Positive Factors
Debt-free balance sheet
Zero total debt and a conservative balance sheet materially reduce financial risk and preserve capital allocation optionality. This supports durable shareholder returns (dividends/buybacks), funds strategic investments without refinancing risk, and provides a buffer in downturns, improving long-term resilience.
Negative Factors
ARR growth deceleration
A sustained slowdown in ARR expansion weakens the primary recurring revenue engine and signals challenges in net new bookings or upsell pacing. If structural, this reduces forward revenue visibility, pressures long-term organic growth, and increases reliance on margin or buybacks to sustain returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Debt-free balance sheet
Zero total debt and a conservative balance sheet materially reduce financial risk and preserve capital allocation optionality. This supports durable shareholder returns (dividends/buybacks), funds strategic investments without refinancing risk, and provides a buffer in downturns, improving long-term resilience.
Read all positive factors
Trend Micro (4704) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥789.09B
Dividend Yield2.57%
Average Volume (3M)775.08K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.0
Beta (1Y)0.32
Revenue Growth2.97%
EPS Growth15.33%
CountryJP
Employees6,869
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)285.01
Shares Outstanding140,901,610
10 Day Avg. Volume999,720
30 Day Avg. Volume775,083
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio18.99
Price to Book (P/B)6.55
Price to Sales (P/S)3.10
P/FCF Ratio13.48
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
¥5,975.00Price Target Upside5.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)286.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥297.92B
Trend Micro Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trend Micro Incorporated develops and sells security-related software for computers and the Internet primarily in Japan. The company offers hybrid cloud security solutions, such conformity, workload, container, file storage, application, network, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Trend Micro primarily makes money by selling cybersecurity products and services under subscription, licensing, and support/maintenance arrangements. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Enterprise and cloud security subscriptions: recurring...
Trend Micro Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed constructive progress: record revenues and operating profit, clear momentum for the Vision One platform (strong attachment, high NRR, expanding ARR per customer), and a strategic shift toward ARR-centric measurement and platform-based GTM. At the same time, management flagged real near-term challenges — ARR growth deceleration, pre-GAAP softness, consumer legacy disruption, increased cloud and start-up costs, and planned investments that pressure operating income. Management presented a coherent transformation plan (GTM, pricing, Flex model) and explicit growth/investment trade-offs for 2026.Positive Updates
Record Q4 and Full-Year Results
Q4 net sales rose 5% and management reported record-high net sales and operating profit for the full year 2025; operating profit in the quarter was reported up ~50% with an OP margin of 18% (management also reported a full-year operating margin of ~21%).
Negative Updates
ARR Growth Slowdown in Q4
ARR growth decelerated to ~2% in Q4 (down from ~7% a year earlier), and management acknowledged ARR momentum was slower than prior-year levels and will require execution to recover.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Q4 and Full-Year Results
Q4 net sales rose 5% and management reported record-high net sales and operating profit for the full year 2025; operating profit in the quarter was reported up ~50% with an OP margin of 18% (management also reported a full-year operating margin of ~21%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Trend Micro’s 2026 guidance calls for net sales to rise ~9% (≈6% ex‑currency) while operating profit is expected to decline ~2%; management is targeting company‑level ARR growth of ~13% (with segment targets of TrendAI ARR +15% and TrendLife ARR +6%), and plans to invest in TrendAI, VicOne and Magna AI (which pressures near‑term OI). Key underlying metrics cited on the call include Vision One penetration (≈38–41% of TrendAI ARR), Vision One average ARR per customer ~$35.5k vs non‑Vision One ~$5.4k, a Vision One attachment base of 11,500 customers (48% attachment), Vision One NRR ~130%, 4.9 solutions average deployed, a $7.3bn incremental ARR opportunity in the installed base, total company recurring revenue $1.7bn (up 1% YoY) and enterprise recurring revenue $1.3bn (up 2%); shareholder return guidance includes an expected dividend of JPY185/sh (vs JPY184 prior) and a JPY5bn buyback as part of a 100% return framework (70% dividend + buyback).Trend Micro Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 282.34B | 275.98B | 272.64B | 248.69B | 223.79B | 190.36B |
| Gross Profit | 218.35B | 212.27B | 207.66B | 185.03B | 169.50B | 148.34B |
| EBITDA | 82.69B | 79.39B | 84.51B | 60.29B | 67.13B | 73.28B |
| Net Income | 37.44B | 34.52B | 34.36B | 10.73B | 29.84B | 38.37B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 399.24B | 422.24B | 400.32B | 492.63B | 470.80B | 420.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 228.99B | 231.03B | 210.90B | 299.03B | 242.85B | 256.80B |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 284.71B | 291.11B | 280.87B | 278.21B | 242.12B | 199.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 114.20B | 130.63B | 119.44B | 214.39B | 228.66B | 220.64B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 74.25B | 63.48B | 45.56B | 55.05B | 55.50B | 53.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 75.43B | 64.64B | 46.78B | 57.23B | 56.90B | 55.27B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 586.00M | 2.86B | 4.83B | 30.99B | -67.71B | 3.95B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -34.90B | -29.57B | -130.69B | -43.42B | -30.44B | -17.82B |
Trend Micro Technical Analysis
Positive
5688.00
Price Trends
5587.86
Positive
5746.14
Positive
6698.76
Negative
Market Momentum
141.14
Negative
55.19
Neutral
43.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4704, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5688 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5801.90, above the 50-day MA of 5587.86, and below the 200-day MA of 6698.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 141.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4704.
Trend Micro Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | ¥38.91B | 15.09 | 19.71% | 3.09% | 9.27% | 48.93% | |
75 Outperform | ¥18.65B | 20.46 | ― | 0.17% | 29.37% | 66.06% | |
74 Outperform | ¥789.09B | 20.97 | 29.21% | 2.57% | 2.97% | 15.33% | |
70 Outperform | ¥52.59B | 34.77 | ― | 0.90% | 25.23% | 46.99% | |
68 Neutral | ¥35.95B | 23.82 | ― | 0.39% | 22.45% | 23.34% | |
64 Neutral | ¥2.30B | 21.75 | ― | 0.58% | 11.38% | 146.95% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
JP:4704
Trend Micro
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Trend Micro Corporate Events
Trend Micro Delivers Strong Q1 Profit Growth Amid Softer Balance Sheet Metrics
May 14, 2026
Trend Micro reported a solid start to fiscal 2026, with first-quarter consolidated net sales rising 9.4% year on year to ¥73.86 billion and operating income up 3.7% to ¥15.56 billion. Ordinary income surged 42.2% to ¥17.65 billion a...
Trend Micro Completes ¥5 Billion Share Buyback Program
Mar 23, 2026
Trend Micro has completed a share repurchase program authorized under Japan’s Company Law, buying back 595,500 of its own common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between March 1 and March 23, 2026, at a total cost of about 3.16 billion yen...
Trend Micro Reports Progress on ¥5 Billion Share Buyback Program
Mar 9, 2026
Trend Micro has disclosed the latest status of its share repurchase program authorized by its board on February 18, 2026, under provisions of Japan’s Companies Act. Between February 19 and February 28, the company bought back 344,900 common ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.