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Nippon Paint Holdings Co
(4612)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
¥1,411.00
▲(16.80% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strengthening financial performance—material margin expansion and improving free cash flow quality—tempered by a higher leverage profile and only moderate debt coverage from operating cash flow. Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, but overbought signals raise near-term risk. Valuation appears reasonable (P/E ~14.6) with a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Margin expansion & profitability
Sustained margin expansion (gross and net) and an EBIT margin ~15.7% TTM signal durable improvements in pricing, mix and cost control. Higher margins increase resilience to cyclical demand swings, fund reinvestment, and support sustained return on capital as the company scales specialty and higher-value coatings.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
A debt-to-equity near 0.75 and higher absolute leverage versus prior years constrain strategic optionality. If margins or demand weaken, interest and repayment burdens could limit capex, M&A or faster deleveraging. Reliance on improving cash flow to reduce leverage may take multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin expansion & profitability
Sustained margin expansion (gross and net) and an EBIT margin ~15.7% TTM signal durable improvements in pricing, mix and cost control. Higher margins increase resilience to cyclical demand swings, fund reinvestment, and support sustained return on capital as the company scales specialty and higher-value coatings.
Read all positive factors
Nippon Paint Holdings Co (4612) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥2.82T
Dividend Yield1.32%
Average Volume (3M)3.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.6
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth11.97%
EPS Growth45.59%
CountryJP
Employees38,481
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)84.73
Shares Outstanding2,370,512,200
10 Day Avg. Volume3,958,910
30 Day Avg. Volume3,758,023
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.33
Price to Book (P/B)1.36
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio16.94
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)83.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥2.02T
Nippon Paint Holdings Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. specializes in the manufacture of paints and advanced chemical products. Its extensive paint portfolio encompasses coatings for vehicles, including bumpers and plastic components; architectural paints for homes, com...
How the Company Makes Money
Nippon Paint Holdings primarily makes money by selling paint and coating products and related coating solutions to customers across several end markets and geographies. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Decorative/architectural coatings: ...
Nippon Paint Holdings Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 14, 2024
(Q3-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed performance with record revenue but a decline in operating profit. While there were positive signs in some regions like the Pacific and Indonesia, challenges in China and Europe highlighted difficulties in certain markets. The company remains optimistic about future quarters with strategic cost management and market expansion.Positive Updates
Record Q3 Revenue
Achieved a record Q3 revenue of JPY 405.6 billion, up 3.2% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in a challenging market environment.
Negative Updates
Decline in Operating Profit
Operating profit decreased by 1.3% year-on-year on a Tanshin basis and by 13.1% on a non-GAAP basis.
Read all updates
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Q3 Revenue
Achieved a record Q3 revenue of JPY 405.6 billion, up 3.2% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in a challenging market environment.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2024 earnings call for Nippon Paint Holdings, Yuichiro Wakatsuki, the company's President, provided guidance on future performance expectations. For Q4, the company anticipates a 15% increase in revenue and operating profit on a Tanshin basis, driven by improvements in operational efficiency and personnel optimization in China. Despite a weakening yen and challenging conditions in some regions like China, Turkey, and Europe, the company expects to exceed its initial full-year forecast by approximately 2 percentage points in revenue and 0.5 to 1 percentage point in operating profit. The company also highlighted strategic moves such as cost reviews in China, with expected margin improvements, and the contribution of its Indian business to consolidated earnings from Q4. Additionally, they discussed the acquisition of AOC and its expected positive impact on EPS, while also acknowledging the challenges and potential in different regional markets.Nippon Paint Holdings Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.95T | 1.77T | 1.64T | 1.44T | 1.31T | 998.28B |
| Gross Profit | 833.85B | 750.24B | 657.45B | 576.13B | 487.53B | 378.32B |
| EBITDA | 386.48B | 347.78B | 243.53B | 213.34B | 154.16B | 118.26B |
| Net Income | 197.50B | 179.80B | 127.34B | 118.48B | 79.42B | 67.57B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.29T | 4.02T | 3.07T | 2.71T | 2.44T | 1.96T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 477.27B | 424.34B | 288.30B | 289.65B | 242.60B | 138.81B |
| Total Debt | 1.42T | 1.42T | 861.79B | 822.85B | 798.25B | 575.24B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.27T | 2.19T | 1.46T | 1.35T | 1.29T | 986.38B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.00T | 1.80T | 1.59T | 1.36T | 1.15T | 959.52B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 228.84B | 145.01B | 118.40B | 154.10B | 74.91B | 32.50B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 274.68B | 187.53B | 167.40B | 189.75B | 112.35B | 67.43B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -61.92B | -321.99B | -148.11B | -115.97B | -165.11B | -102.36B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -102.45B | 254.73B | -37.38B | -38.66B | 145.77B | -62.31B |
Nippon Paint Holdings Co Technical Analysis
Positive
1208.00
Price Trends
1085.71
Positive
1041.43
Positive
1034.22
Positive
Market Momentum
48.53
Negative
72.45
Negative
85.86
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4612, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1208 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1157.95, above the 50-day MA of 1085.71, and above the 200-day MA of 1034.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 48.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.45 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.86 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4612.
Nippon Paint Holdings Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | ¥53.67B | 10.20 | ― | 5.04% | -6.31% | 6.67% | |
74 Outperform | ¥2.82T | 14.56 | 11.39% | 1.32% | 11.97% | 45.59% | |
73 Outperform | ¥133.77B | 9.67 | 7.27% | 0.43% | 3.36% | 14.17% | |
64 Neutral | ¥418.76B | 9.22 | 10.33% | 4.92% | -0.45% | 50.53% | |
63 Neutral | ¥477.83B | 15.76 | 11.32% | 4.13% | 0.16% | -12.56% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | ¥39.63B | 23.67 | ― | 3.70% | 29.30% | -82.13% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
JP:4612
Nippon Paint Holdings Co
1,259.50
-41.53
-3.19%
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Nippon Paint Holdings Co Corporate Events
Nippon Paint Lifts 2026 Revenue Outlook But Trims Profit Forecasts
Aug 7, 2026
Nippon Paint Holdings has revised its consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, lifting expected revenue to ¥2 trillion from ¥1.92 trillion while keeping operating profit unchanged at ¥283 billion....
Nippon Paint Lifts First-Half Earnings and Confirms Growth Outlook for 2026
Aug 7, 2026
Nippon Paint Holdings reported strong results for the six months ended June 30, 2026, with revenue rising 20.1% year on year to ¥1.02 trillion and operating profit climbing 29.8% to ¥152.3 billion. Profit attributable to owners of the pa...
Nippon Paint Confirms EUR 7.5 Billion Bid for Akzo Nobel Decorative Paints Unit
Jul 13, 2026
Nippon Paint Holdings has confirmed that it submitted a proposal to acquire Akzo Nobel’s decorative paints business, based in the Netherlands, for EUR 7.5 billion. The move, if completed, would significantly expand Nippon Paint’s prese...
Nippon Paint Reveals Parent Nipsea’s Ownership and Capital Structure
Jun 30, 2026
Nippon Paint Holdings has disclosed the fiscal 2025 financial results and shareholding details of its parent company, Nipsea International Limited, based in Hong Kong. Nipsea’s capital stands at HK$60,000 million, and its ordinary shares tot...
Nippon Paint Lifts Q1 Profit 44% and Hikes 2026 Dividend Outlook
May 15, 2026
Nippon Paint Holdings reported strong results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, with revenue rising 20.8% year on year to ¥490.3 billion and operating profit climbing 42.7% to ¥70.9 billion. Profit attributable to owners of the paren...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.