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Nippon Paint Holdings Co Ltd (JP:4612)
:4612

Nippon Paint Holdings Co (4612) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:4612

Nippon Paint Holdings Co

(4612)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,323.00
▲(25.05% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is primarily driven by solid financial performance (growth and improved profitability) but constrained by higher 2025 leverage and subpar cash conversion. Technicals are supportive of an uptrend but are currently overbought, while valuation appears reasonable on a ~14 P/E with a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Sustained revenue growth and improving margins
Multi-year revenue expansion and a doubling of net margin to ~10.1% show durable demand and improved pricing/efficiency. This mix of top-line scale and margin recovery supports stable earnings, funds reinvestment into products and distribution, and reduces dependence on one-off gains.
Consistent, improving free cash flow generation
Sustained positive free cash flow at a large share of net income indicates solid cash conversion at the firm level, enabling capex funding, dividends, and debt service. Reliable FCF underpins strategic investments and resilience to cyclical industry swings over medium term.
Diversified coatings portfolio and scale advantages
A broad product mix (decorative, industrial, OEM coatings), geographic footprint and service offerings create recurring demand, specification-based sales and procurement/manufacturing scale. These structural advantages support durable market share and margin resilience versus niche peers.
Negative Factors
Sharp increase in leverage in 2025
A large one-year rise in absolute debt and debt-to-equity reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. Higher leverage magnifies earnings volatility and constrains strategic optionality if margins or cash flow unexpectedly weaken.
Operating cash flow materially below net income
Operating cash flow lagging net income signals working-capital or timing pressures that can create quarter-to-quarter cash volatility. Persistent low cash conversion increases reliance on external financing for growth or dividends and weakens liquidity buffers despite positive FCF.
Growth moderation increases reliance on margin gains
With top-line expansion slowing, future earnings upside hinges on maintaining or expanding margins. That elevates exposure to raw-material cost swings, pricing competition and execution risk; failing to sustain margins would compress profit growth materially.

Nippon Paint Holdings Co (4612) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Nippon Paint Holdings Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the paint and fine chemicals businesses. The company offers automotive coatings, including paints for use in bumpers and plastic components; trade-use paints for homes, buildings, and bridges; and industrial coatings that are used in a range of products, including construction and farming machinery, exterior building materials, office equipment, and household electrical appliances. It also provides marine coatings, such as antifouling paints for fuel-saving; and paints for automobiles refinish, DIY, and road surface markings. In addition, the company offers surface treatment products comprising hydrophilic surface treatment and eco-friendly surface treatment agents; and fine products that include functional interlayer coatings, as well as coatings for display films. It has operations in Japan, Asia, the Americas, Oceania, and internationally. The company was formerly known as Nippon Paint Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. in October 2014. Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyNippon Paint generates revenue primarily through the sale of paints and coatings across its various segments. The architectural coatings segment, which includes decorative paints for residential and commercial use, is a significant revenue driver, benefiting from the ongoing demand in construction and renovation projects. The automotive coatings segment also contributes substantially, providing coatings for vehicle manufacturers and repair shops. Additionally, Nippon Paint engages in strategic partnerships with construction firms and automotive manufacturers to secure long-term contracts, enhancing its market presence and revenue stability. The company's commitment to research and development enables it to introduce innovative products that meet evolving customer preferences, further driving sales growth.

Nippon Paint Holdings Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 14, 2024
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed performance with record revenue but a decline in operating profit. While there were positive signs in some regions like the Pacific and Indonesia, challenges in China and Europe highlighted difficulties in certain markets. The company remains optimistic about future quarters with strategic cost management and market expansion.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Q3 Revenue
Achieved a record Q3 revenue of JPY 405.6 billion, up 3.2% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in a challenging market environment.
Positive Growth in NIPSEA China
NIPSEA China's decorative business saw TUC grow by 1% and total revenue increased by 2% on a non-GAAP basis despite a tough market environment.
Pacific Segment Growth
Sales in the Pacific region grew by 3.1% with margins improving by 1 percentage point due to small acquisitions in the adjacencies business.
Approval for Indian Business
Received approval from authorities for the Indian business, expected to contribute positively from Q4 onwards.
Indonesia Recovery
Indonesia showed signs of recovery with a 7.9% growth in Q3.
Negative Updates
Decline in Operating Profit
Operating profit decreased by 1.3% year-on-year on a Tanshin basis and by 13.1% on a non-GAAP basis.
Challenges in China
NIPSEA China's operating profit fell by 32% on a non-GAAP basis, with a noted decline in TUB by 16%.
Difficult Market in Europe
DGL faced challenging market conditions in Europe, particularly in France, resulting in a sales decline.
Weak Margin in China
China's margin was reported at 8.8%, which was considered low and impacted by pricing and promotional expenses.
No Significant Demand Recovery in China
The expectation for a significant demand recovery in China remains low despite economic stimulus measures.
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2024 earnings call for Nippon Paint Holdings, Yuichiro Wakatsuki, the company's President, provided guidance on future performance expectations. For Q4, the company anticipates a 15% increase in revenue and operating profit on a Tanshin basis, driven by improvements in operational efficiency and personnel optimization in China. Despite a weakening yen and challenging conditions in some regions like China, Turkey, and Europe, the company expects to exceed its initial full-year forecast by approximately 2 percentage points in revenue and 0.5 to 1 percentage point in operating profit. The company also highlighted strategic moves such as cost reviews in China, with expected margin improvements, and the contribution of its Indian business to consolidated earnings from Q4. Additionally, they discussed the acquisition of AOC and its expected positive impact on EPS, while also acknowledging the challenges and potential in different regional markets.

Nippon Paint Holdings Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong multi-year revenue and margin expansion through 2025 supports a solid fundamentals score. Offsetting factors are the sharp increase in leverage in 2025 (debt vs. equity rising to ~0.79x) and weaker cash conversion (operating cash flow well below net income), which reduce financial flexibility.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Revenue has expanded steadily from 2020 to 2025 (about ¥0.77T to ¥1.77T), with 2025 showing continued growth. Profitability has improved meaningfully: net margin rose from ~5.7% (2020) to ~10.1% (2025), and operating profitability also strengthened versus 2021–2022 levels. A watch-out is that growth rates have moderated versus the earlier post-2020 surge, so future upside likely depends more on maintaining margin gains than on rapid top-line acceleration.
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
The company has grown its asset base and equity over time, supporting a larger operating footprint. However, leverage increased sharply in 2025: total debt jumped to ~¥1.42T from ~¥0.76T in 2024, pushing debt vs. equity higher (about 0.79x in 2025 vs. ~0.48x in 2024). That higher leverage reduces balance-sheet flexibility and raises sensitivity to earnings or funding-market changes.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash generation is generally solid, with free cash flow positive each year and improving in 2025 (free cash flow up ~8.6%). Free cash flow is a healthy share of earnings (about 0.77x of net income in 2025), indicating decent earnings quality. The main weakness is that operating cash flow is consistently well below net income (roughly 0.18x–0.43x over the period, ~0.32x in 2025), suggesting working-capital or other cash timing headwinds that can create volatility quarter-to-quarter.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.77T1.64T1.44T1.31T998.28B
Gross Profit750.24B657.45B576.13B487.53B378.32B
EBITDA317.74B251.34B227.97B163.42B123.92B
Net Income179.80B127.34B118.48B79.42B67.57B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.02T3.07T2.71T2.44T1.96T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments424.34B288.30B289.65B242.60B138.81B
Total Debt1.42T760.01B739.77B722.06B523.03B
Total Liabilities2.19T1.46T1.35T1.29T986.39B
Stockholders Equity1.80T1.59T1.36T1.15T959.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow145.01B118.40B151.65B71.33B28.05B
Operating Cash Flow187.53B167.40B189.75B112.35B67.43B
Investing Cash Flow-321.99B-148.11B-115.97B-165.11B-102.36B
Financing Cash Flow254.73B-37.38B-38.66B145.77B-62.31B

Nippon Paint Holdings Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1058.00
Price Trends
50DMA
1068.82
Positive
100DMA
1034.03
Positive
200DMA
1072.47
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
32.83
Positive
RSI
61.06
Neutral
STOCH
25.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4612, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1058 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1115.25, below the 50-day MA of 1068.82, and below the 200-day MA of 1072.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 32.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:4612.

Nippon Paint Holdings Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
¥55.28B9.575.04%-3.21%27.18%
74
Outperform
¥174.29B14.966.87%1.11%2.88%16.60%
74
Outperform
¥42.32B5.503.70%14.83%51.42%
69
Neutral
¥2.72T15.0910.44%1.52%9.81%32.64%
68
Neutral
¥466.36B13.7713.71%3.38%0.29%27.84%
65
Neutral
¥419.23B12.968.14%2.61%-1.45%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:4612
Nippon Paint Holdings Co
1,157.00
66.51
6.10%
JP:4613
Kansai Paint Co
2,764.00
728.90
35.82%
JP:4631
DIC
4,429.00
1,384.79
45.49%
JP:4628
SK Kaken Co
11,440.00
2,521.34
28.27%
JP:4611
Dai Nippon Toryo Company, Limited
1,494.00
305.30
25.68%
JP:4619
Nihon Tokushu Toryo Co., Ltd.
2,545.00
1,256.45
97.51%

Nippon Paint Holdings Co Corporate Events

Nippon Paint Extends JPY 670 Billion Loan for AOC Acquisition via Long-Term Refinancing
Feb 13, 2026

Nippon Paint Holdings has refinanced a bank loan used to acquire an equity interest in AOC, a global specialty formulator that has become its subsidiary, by replacing the original borrowing with a new long-term facility. The new loan totals JPY 670 billion, is provided by a syndicate of major Japanese banks, carries variable or fixed interest based on a base rate plus spread, and has an average term of 7.2 years with lump-sum repayment at maturity and no collateral or guarantees required.

By extending the maturity profile of this acquisition financing, Nippon Paint is lengthening its debt duration while maintaining liquidity following the AOC transaction. The company expects the impact of this refinancing on its business performance and financial position to be immaterial, suggesting that leverage and cash flow metrics should remain broadly stable for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4612) stock is a Buy with a Yen1144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nippon Paint Holdings Co stock, see the JP:4612 Stock Forecast page.

Nippon Paint Posts Strong 2025 Earnings and Lifts Dividend Outlook for 2026
Feb 13, 2026

Nippon Paint Holdings reported strong results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with revenue rising 8.3% to ¥1.77 trillion and operating profit surging 38.1%, driven by improved profitability and higher margins that lifted earnings per share to ¥76.66. The company strengthened its financial base with higher total assets and equity, robust operating cash flow, and raised its annual dividend from ¥15 to ¥16 per share, while guiding for further growth in 2026 with forecast revenue of ¥1.92 trillion and a 10.1% increase in profit attributable to owners of the parent, signaling continued confidence in its business momentum and shareholder returns.

Nippon Paint’s improved profitability metrics, including a higher operating margin and return on equity, underscore operational efficiency gains and a stronger earnings profile. Expanded cash and cash equivalents alongside increased financing activities suggest active capital deployment, while the planned dividend increase for 2026 to ¥17 per share highlights management’s commitment to delivering rising payouts in step with earnings growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4612) stock is a Buy with a Yen1144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nippon Paint Holdings Co stock, see the JP:4612 Stock Forecast page.

Nippon Paint Extends Maturity of ¥670 Billion Loan for AOC Acquisition
Feb 13, 2026

Nippon Paint Holdings has refinanced the bank loan it originally used to acquire an equity stake in AOC, a global specialty formulator that became its subsidiary, converting that borrowing into a long-term facility. The new loan totals JPY 670 billion, is provided by a syndicate of major Japanese banks, carries variable or fixed interest based on a base rate plus spread, and has a 5–10 year term with lump-sum repayment at maturity, a move the company expects will have only an immaterial impact on its business performance and financial position.

By extending the loan’s maturity to an average of 7.2 years and securing unsecured funding from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, MUFG Bank, Mizuho Bank, and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Nippon Paint strengthens the financing structure behind its AOC acquisition. This refinancing supports the company’s long-term capital management and balance sheet stability while signaling confidence in the strategic value of AOC within its portfolio, with limited anticipated disruption for shareholders and creditors.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4612) stock is a Buy with a Yen1144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nippon Paint Holdings Co stock, see the JP:4612 Stock Forecast page.

Nippon Paint Holdings Lifts Earnings and Dividend, Signals Further Growth in 2026
Feb 13, 2026

Nippon Paint Holdings reported solid growth for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with revenue rising 8.3% to ¥1.77 trillion and operating profit jumping 38.1%, driving a 42.8% increase in profit attributable to owners of the parent. Profitability metrics improved notably, as operating margin and return on equity strengthened, while cash flows from operations increased and a higher annual dividend of ¥16 per share was declared.

The balance sheet expanded to just over ¥4.0 trillion in total assets, reflecting active investment and financing activities, while equity attributable to owners of the parent also increased. For 2026, the company forecasts a further 8.2% rise in revenue and a 10.1% increase in profit attributable to owners of the parent, signaling continued earnings momentum and a modestly higher dividend outlook that suggests confidence in sustained growth and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4612) stock is a Buy with a Yen1144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nippon Paint Holdings Co stock, see the JP:4612 Stock Forecast page.

Nippon Paint Advances Large-Scale Share Buyback Program
Feb 12, 2026

Nippon Paint Holdings has reported progress on its ongoing share buyback program, acquiring 4,643,700 common shares for about 4.8 billion yen via market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between January 1 and January 31, 2026. These purchases form part of a Board-approved plan, authorized in October 2025, to buy back up to 35 million shares or 30 billion yen of stock by February 28, 2026.

As of January 31, 2026, the company has cumulatively repurchased 25,541,400 shares for approximately 25.7 billion yen under this resolution. The scale and pace of the buyback underline Nippon Paint’s commitment to capital efficiency and shareholder returns, potentially supporting its share price and signaling confidence in its financial position and long-term strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4612) stock is a Buy with a Yen1144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nippon Paint Holdings Co stock, see the JP:4612 Stock Forecast page.

Nippon Paint Holdings Updates Progress on Multi-Billion Yen Share Buyback
Jan 14, 2026

Nippon Paint Holdings has disclosed the latest progress in its ongoing share buyback program, reporting the acquisition of 4,015,700 common shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between December 1 and December 31, 2025, for a total of approximately 4.11 billion yen through market purchases under a discretionary trading agreement. This activity forms part of a broader board-approved buyback framework, authorized in October 2025 for up to 35 million shares or 30 billion yen through February 28, 2026, under which the company has cumulatively repurchased 20,897,700 shares for about 20.91 billion yen as of December 31, 2025, signaling an ongoing capital allocation effort that may support shareholder returns and earnings per share by reducing the free float.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4612) stock is a Buy with a Yen1144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nippon Paint Holdings Co stock, see the JP:4612 Stock Forecast page.

Nippon Paint Holdings Acquires Treasury Stock to Optimize Capital Structure
Dec 12, 2025

Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. has announced the acquisition of 9,539,900 shares of its own common stock, amounting to approximately 9.38 billion yen, during November 2025. This move is part of a larger plan approved by the Board of Directors to acquire up to 35 million shares, or 1.5% of total issued shares, by February 2026, with a total acquisition budget of up to 30 billion yen. The acquisition is conducted through market purchases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, indicating a strategic effort to manage capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4612) stock is a Buy with a Yen1149.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nippon Paint Holdings Co stock, see the JP:4612 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026