tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Tsumura & Co. (JP:4540)
:4540

Tsumura & Co (4540) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
3 Followers

Top Page

JP:4540

Tsumura & Co

(4540)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
¥4,120.00
▲(14.48% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/08/26
The score is held back primarily by weak TTM cash generation (negative free cash flow) and higher leverage versus FY2025. Offsetting these risks are solid profitability, a constructive technical uptrend with positive momentum, and supportive valuation with a low P/E and a healthy dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Profitability & Revenue Growth
Sustained gross and healthy net margins alongside multi-year revenue expansion indicate durable operational profitability and pricing power in core products. This supports reinvestment in manufacturing and R&D, and cushions earnings through industry cycles, underpinning long-term cash generation potential.
Substantial Equity Base
A large equity base provides a structural financial buffer, enabling the company to absorb volatility in raw-material supply and invest in production capacity. This strengthens credit standing and preserves strategic optionality for capex or M&A without immediate dependence on short-term market financing.
Reimbursed Prescription Business
A reimbursed prescription model creates recurring demand, tight physician/distributor relationships, and regulatory barriers that limit new entrants. Reliance on Japan’s healthcare reimbursement offers structural revenue stability and predictable volume trends over multiple months to years.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
Negative trailing free cash flow signals persistent cash conversion issues despite reported profits. This raises reliance on external financing for capex, working capital and dividends, constraining strategic flexibility and increasing execution risk if cash conversion doesn't recover sustainably.
Rising Leverage
A sharp increase in debt relative to prior-year levels reduces financial headroom and raises interest and refinancing exposure. With weaker cash conversion, higher leverage heightens default and credit-cost risk and can force prioritization of debt service over growth investments or shareholder returns.
Margin & ROE Softening
Declining margins and lower ROE indicate erosion in earnings quality and returns on capital. If driven by cost pressures or pricing constraints, these trends can persist and reduce the payoff from invested capital, making it harder to rebuild cash flow and justify sustained capital deployment.

Tsumura & Co (4540) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Tsumura & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTsumura & Co. (4540) is a leading Japanese pharmaceutical company specializing in traditional herbal medicine, also known as Kampo medicine. Established in 1893, the company develops, manufactures, and sells a wide range of Kampo products, which are derived from natural herbal ingredients. Tsumura operates primarily in the healthcare sector, focusing on providing effective and safe therapeutic solutions that align with Japan's rich history of herbal medicine. In addition to Kampo formulations, the company is involved in research and development of new pharmaceuticals and operates in the field of health foods.
How the Company Makes MoneyTsumura makes money primarily by selling pharmaceutical products, with its core revenue stream coming from prescription Kampo extract granules/formulations reimbursed through Japan’s healthcare system and prescribed by physicians. Revenue is generated when these prescription products are supplied through pharmaceutical wholesalers and other distribution partners to hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies, which ultimately dispense them to patients. The company also earns revenue from non-prescription/consumer healthcare products (where applicable) sold through retail and other channels. Key earnings drivers typically include product demand/volume in the prescription channel, the breadth of its Kampo product lineup, manufacturing scale and quality control for herbal extracts, securement and processing of botanical raw materials, and the effectiveness of its sales and medical-marketing activities with healthcare professionals. Specific breakdowns of revenue by segment, named major partners, and the quantitative contribution of each stream are null.

Tsumura & Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong profitability and steady multi-year revenue growth are positives, but the TTM cash flow profile is a major risk: operating cash flow is low versus earnings and free cash flow is negative. Balance sheet leverage has also risen versus FY2025, reducing the overall financial strength score despite solid margins.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Profitability is strong, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross margin ~47.6% and net margin ~15.3%, supported by solid operating profitability. Growth has been steady to improving: revenue expanded from ¥129.5B (2022) to ¥181.1B (FY2025), and TTM revenue growth remains positive (~4.2%). The main weakness is that margins have softened versus FY2025 (net margin ~17.9% then vs ~15.3% TTM), indicating some recent pressure on earnings quality/trajectory despite higher sales.
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Equity remains substantial (TTM equity ~¥305.3B) and leverage is still moderate (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.44), but the balance sheet has clearly levered up versus FY2025 (debt-to-equity ~0.23; total debt rose sharply to ~¥135.4B TTM). Returns on shareholders’ capital are acceptable but not exceptional (ROE ~9.3% TTM, down from ~10.8% in FY2025), suggesting incremental debt has not translated into stronger shareholder returns.
Cash Flow
38
Negative
Cash generation has become the key concern. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is low (~¥15.4B) relative to earnings, and free cash flow is negative (~-¥22.0B), implying elevated investment needs and/or working-capital drag. While FY2025 showed healthier cash conversion (positive free cash flow ~¥6.2B), the swing back to negative free cash flow TTM increases financing dependence and adds volatility risk despite strong reported profitability.
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue189.50B181.09B150.84B140.04B129.55B130.88B
Gross Profit90.20B90.58B68.82B68.28B66.47B74.93B
EBITDA53.75B57.25B34.82B34.03B34.92B29.36B
Net Income29.01B32.43B16.71B16.48B18.84B15.33B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets549.68B464.38B428.25B396.81B350.98B319.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments69.48B73.23B78.08B94.75B67.55B61.31B
Total Debt135.41B70.80B80.10B80.05B50.00B53.09B
Total Liabilities211.04B134.27B132.89B124.56B92.87B85.89B
Stockholders Equity305.33B300.53B270.80B252.05B239.77B217.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-21.99B6.23B-11.21B4.23B11.14B7.15B
Operating Cash Flow15.40B33.82B5.61B16.45B21.31B16.10B
Investing Cash Flow-46.44B-24.97B-19.35B-15.49B-9.11B215.00M
Financing Cash Flow20.41B-19.87B-4.42B24.42B-8.18B-17.99B

Tsumura & Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price3599.00
Price Trends
50DMA
4036.32
Negative
100DMA
3976.51
Negative
200DMA
3752.57
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-82.84
Positive
RSI
28.43
Positive
STOCH
<0.01
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4540, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3599 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3941.65, below the 50-day MA of 4036.32, and below the 200-day MA of 3752.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -82.84 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.43 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of <0.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:4540.

Tsumura & Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
¥148.04B93.62-2.58%4.16%-5.99%-96.04%
77
Outperform
¥331.78B9.442.12%4.07%22.59%
73
Outperform
¥440.40B15.437.11%2.43%3.53%38.23%
73
Outperform
¥118.59B12.604.81%2.34%4.35%48.30%
69
Neutral
¥284.00B7.129.05%3.30%10.51%9.62%
52
Neutral
¥18.77B72.723.65%9.53%-155.76%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:4540
Tsumura & Co
3,712.00
-560.95
-13.13%
JP:4530
Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co
6,036.00
1,969.65
48.44%
JP:4521
Kaken Pharmaceutical Co
4,110.00
-279.46
-6.37%
JP:4534
Mochida Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.
3,485.00
321.82
10.17%
JP:2929
Pharma Foods International Co., Ltd.
648.00
-236.04
-26.70%
JP:4516
Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd.
4,926.00
1,079.51
28.06%

Tsumura & Co Corporate Events

Tsumura Aligns Yomeishu Share Acquisition With Long-Term Kampo Healthcare Vision
Feb 24, 2026

Tsumura & Co. has concluded a contract to acquire shares of Yomeishu Seizo Co., Ltd., aligning the deal with its long-term TSUMURA VISION “Cho-WA” 2031 strategy. The vision emphasizes contributing to a healthier society by developing evidence-based diagnostic methods for pre-symptomatic diseases and delivering Kampo and traditional Chinese medicine solutions tailored to personal health conditions.

The acquisition supports Tsumura’s ambition to expand its footprint in traditional medicine while reinforcing a corporate culture that values dialogue and employee potential. By integrating Yomeishu Seizo into its broader strategy, Tsumura aims to strengthen its unique positioning in Kampo and traditional Chinese medicine, enhancing its role in preventive healthcare and personalized well-being services.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4540) stock is a Buy with a Yen4762.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsumura & Co stock, see the JP:4540 Stock Forecast page.

Tsumura to Take Yomeishu Private in ¥6.8 Billion Multi-Stage Deal to Expand Healthcare Portfolio
Feb 24, 2026

Tsumura & Co. has agreed a four-party master deal with Yomeishu Seizo, Reno and Yuzawa under which Yomeishu will be taken private, restructured, and eventually become wholly owned by Tsumura via a staged tender offer, squeeze-out, asset separation, and share transfers. After Reno’s tender offer and squeeze-out concentrate Yomeishu’s shares in Yuzawa, non-operating assets will be carved out through dividends or splits, and Tsumura will then acquire all remaining Yomeishu shares from Yuzawa for ¥6.8 billion around July–August 2026.

The transaction is central to Tsumura’s strategy to build a multi-pillar business portfolio and reinforce its stable earnings base by expanding beyond prescription Kampo into the broader healthcare product field where Yomeishu is strong. By refocusing Yomeishu’s operations on its flagship “Yomeishu” brand and reallocating management resources to that core business before the final share transfer, Tsumura expects to enhance Yomeishu’s medium- to long-term corporate value and realize synergies and complementary strengths within the Kampo and healthcare markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4540) stock is a Buy with a Yen4762.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsumura & Co stock, see the JP:4540 Stock Forecast page.

Tsumura Updates Q3 FY2026 Results and Expands Consolidation of Chinese Herbal Subsidiary
Feb 6, 2026

Tsumura & Co. released supplementary materials for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, detailing consolidated financial statements, sales by business and product group, and quarterly performance data, with a particular focus on the sales and growth of 129 prescription Kampo formulations. The company also announced changes in its consolidation scope and reporting format, notably shifting to consolidate first the balance sheet and now, from the third quarter, the income statement of its Shanghai Hongqiao traditional Chinese drug pieces subsidiary, a move that is likely to provide a more complete view of the group’s financial position and performance and may underscore the growing strategic importance of its Chinese herbal medicine operations within the overall business.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4540) stock is a Hold with a Yen4584.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsumura & Co stock, see the JP:4540 Stock Forecast page.

Tsumura Posts Higher Sales but Lower Profits, Keeps Full-Year Forecast and Dividend Plan Intact
Feb 6, 2026

Tsumura & Co. reported consolidated net sales of ¥145.2 billion for the first nine months of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, a 6.1% year-on-year increase, but saw declines in profitability, with operating profit down 10.9%, ordinary profit down 9.2%, and profit attributable to owners of parent falling 12.9% to ¥23.2 billion; basic earnings per share dropped to ¥309.60 and the equity ratio weakened to 55.5% as total assets expanded. Despite the profit pressures, the company maintained its dividend policy with an interim payout of ¥68 per share and is forecasting a slight increase in the full-year dividend to ¥144 per share, while keeping its full-year guidance unchanged at ¥198.0 billion in net sales and a 25.1% decline in profit attributable to owners of parent, signaling a cautious stance amid rising costs or other margin challenges but continued commitment to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4540) stock is a Hold with a Yen4584.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsumura & Co stock, see the JP:4540 Stock Forecast page.

Tsumura Confirms It Is Weighing Reported Yomeishu Take-Private but Says No Decision Yet
Feb 3, 2026

Tsumura & Co. clarified that recent reports in the digital and print editions of The Nikkei about its involvement in a potential take-private transaction for Yomeishu Seizo Co., Ltd. did not originate from the company itself. The company acknowledged that it is considering the reported matters but emphasized that no decisions have been made, and it pledged to disclose any material developments in a timely and appropriate manner, signaling that discussions remain at a preliminary stage and that stakeholders should not assume a finalized deal.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4540) stock is a Hold with a Yen4584.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsumura & Co stock, see the JP:4540 Stock Forecast page.

Tsumura Secures ¥50 Billion Syndicated Loan with Financial Covenants for Growth Investment
Jan 16, 2026

Tsumura & Co. has entered into a large unsecured syndicated loan agreement with a bank group led by MUFG Bank to finance active investment in equipment and business initiatives tied to its long-term management vision, including sustaining growth in its domestic operations and expanding its presence in China. The agreement, split into two tranches totaling ¥50 billion and maturing in 2033 and 2036, includes financial covenants requiring the company to maintain at least 75% of specified consolidated net asset levels and to avoid recording operating losses for two consecutive fiscal years, underscoring both the lender’s risk controls and the company’s commitment to financial discipline, although Tsumura says the deal will have no material impact on its current earnings outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:4540) stock is a Hold with a Yen4226.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tsumura & Co stock, see the JP:4540 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 08, 2026