Space Market, Inc. (4487) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥3.67B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 14.77K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.39
• Revenue Growth: 27.19%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: JP
• Employees: 64
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Services
• EPS (TTM): 8.04
• Shares Outstanding: 12,103,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,680
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 14,770
• PEG Ratio: 0.96
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.37
• P/FCF Ratio: -120.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥310.00 ▲(9.93% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by financial performance: solid revenue growth and strong margins are offset by 2025’s sharp weakening in operating/free cash flow and a meaningful increase in leverage. Technicals are neutral-to-soft with the price below longer-term averages, while valuation (P/E ~17) is reasonable but not a major positive catalyst.

Positive Factors

Strong revenue growth and high gross margins

Sustained top-line expansion combined with very high gross margins and a return to profitability indicate durable unit economics and pricing power. This supports ongoing reinvestment capacity and resilience versus competitors, underpinning stable earnings generation over the medium term.

High returns on equity and equity growth

ROE above ~21% and rising equity imply efficient capital deployment and attractive returns on invested capital. That suggests management can generate shareholder value internally, reducing reliance on external financing and supporting sustainable growth and strategic investment over multiple quarters.

Diversified, multi-stream revenue model

Multiple revenue streams—satellite launch fees, subscription space-data analytics, and partnership projects—provide structural diversification of cash flows. This lowers single-market exposure, enables cross-selling, and supports steadier revenues and long-term client relationships across commercial and government segments.

Negative Factors

Sharp deterioration in cash generation (2025)

A material swing to negligible operating cash flow and negative free cash flow in 2025 signals weaker cash conversion and possible working-capital or capex strain. This reduces internal funding for growth or debt service and increases dependence on external financing, raising medium-term execution risk.

Meaningful increase in leverage

A sharp rise in debt-to-equity to ~0.81 materially reduces financial flexibility and heightens sensitivity to cash-flow fluctuations. Higher leverage increases interest and covenant risk, potentially constraining strategic investments or forcing dilutive financing if cash generation does not improve.

Earnings volatility and margin moderation

Prior losses and recent margin compression indicate earnings are sensitive to operational or market swings. That history reduces predictability of profits and complicates planning, making it harder to rely on stable cash flow for investments or debt service across the coming quarters.

Space Market, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

SpaceMarket operates an online platform for space sharing in Japan. It provides a marketplace of unused or idle venues for on-demand rental use. The company offers spacemarket app, which allows customers to search and reserve rental space. Its platform allows searching of rental space for party, business, shooting and recording, hobbies/play, sports/fitness, study group, lessons/courses, music, beauty, office, pop-up store, baggage, and other events. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Space Market, Inc. generates revenue primarily through transaction fees collected from bookings made on its platform. The company charges a percentage fee to space owners for each successful rental transaction facilitated through its system. Additionally, Space Market may offer premium listing services or advertising opportunities to space owners, providing them with increased visibility in exchange for a fee. Partnerships with corporate clients or event organizers could also contribute to its earnings by providing tailored space solutions for larger-scale needs. Overall, the company capitalizes on the growing demand for flexible space rental options in the sharing economy.

Space Market, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement trends are improving (strong recent revenue growth, very high gross margins, and profitability returning in 2024–2025), but overall financial quality is held back by a sharp 2025 deterioration in cash conversion (negative free cash flow despite positive earnings) and a meaningful jump in leverage (debt-to-equity rising to ~0.81).

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been strong and improving in the last two years (2024: ~26%, 2025: ~16%), while gross margins remain very high (~76–79%), indicating solid pricing power/unit economics. Profitability has also stabilized after earlier losses (2022–2023 net losses, then positive net income in 2024–2025). Offsetting this, profit margins appear to be moderating (net margin down from ~9.2% in 2024 to ~8.3% in 2025), and the company has a history of earnings volatility (losses as recently as 2023).

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows rising financial risk: total debt jumped meaningfully in 2025, pushing debt relative to equity up to ~0.81 (from ~0.30 in 2024). Equity has grown and recent returns on equity are strong (2024–2025 both above ~21%), but the sharp leverage increase in 2025 reduces flexibility and increases sensitivity to downturns or cash flow pressure.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened significantly in 2025: operating cash flow was very small (~¥15m) versus positive net income (~¥214m), and free cash flow turned negative (~-¥29m). This is a notable deterioration from 2024, when operating cash flow (~¥382m) and free cash flow (~¥359m) were robust. The swing suggests working-capital/investment strain or lower cash conversion, and it raises questions about how comfortably the company can support higher debt with internally generated cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.21B	2.57B	1.97B	1.56B	1.23B	1.23B
Gross Profit	1.70B	1.96B	1.53B	1.24B	907.64M	887.11M
EBITDA	326.28M	356.03M	248.28M	-133.42M	-56.81M	97.63M
Net Income	237.01M	214.02M	181.64M	-168.41M	-114.93M	38.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.15B	3.74B	2.53B	2.05B	1.70B	1.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.24B	1.16B	911.33M	558.14M	445.00M	571.51M
Total Debt	797.59M	813.22M	231.75M	178.85M	191.90M	79.49M
Total Liabilities	2.29B	2.73B	1.77B	1.49B	998.77M	898.38M
Stockholders Equity	861.08M	1.01B	762.70M	551.93M	698.35M	800.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-29.39M	359.00M	174.55M	-202.44M	-33.13M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	15.31M	381.55M	215.12M	-159.19M	85.87M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-256.08M	-84.57M	-89.48M	-82.88M	-224.97M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	485.88M	56.21M	-12.50M	115.57M	-65.73M

Space Market, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 282.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:4487, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 282 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 304.75, below the 50-day MA of 302.32, and below the 200-day MA of 341.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:4487.

Space Market, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3484	75 Outperform	¥23.86B	16.42	―	2.47%	15.04%	68.39%
3479	67 Neutral	¥86.17B	22.36	―	―	127.32%	-22.79%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
3482	65 Neutral	¥62.09B	7.89	―	2.38%	33.64%	-0.28%
5532	61 Neutral	¥19.06B	18.67	―	―	23.19%	44.46%
5527	59 Neutral	¥9.45B	8.70	―	3.45%	28.82%	672.17%
4487	55 Neutral	¥3.67B	17.11	―	―	27.19%	―