Nippon Paper (JP:3863)
:3863
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Nippon Paper
(3863)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,453.00
▲(24.29% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:10/30/25
Nippon Paper's overall stock score reflects stable financial performance with some risks due to high leverage and declining free cash flow. Technical indicators suggest a lack of momentum, and valuation metrics indicate moderate pricing. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events limits further insights.
Positive Factors
Vertical integration into pulp and forestry
Owning upstream pulp production and forestry accessibly secures raw-material supply and limits procurement cost volatility. Over months this reduces input-cost pass-through risk, supports consistent production, and strengthens competitive position versus peers lacking integrated sourcing.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Substantial reliance on debt financing reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate risks. Over a 2-6 month horizon adverse demand or cash-flow slips could force tighter liquidity management or higher financing costs, constraining strategic investment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vertical integration into pulp and forestry
Owning upstream pulp production and forestry accessibly secures raw-material supply and limits procurement cost volatility. Over months this reduces input-cost pass-through risk, supports consistent production, and strengthens competitive position versus peers lacking integrated sourcing.
Read all positive factors
Nippon Paper (3863) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥158.40B
Dividend Yield1.31%
Average Volume (3M)406.22K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.8
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth0.56%
EPS Growth-60.69%
CountryJP
Employees15,557
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)65.24
Shares Outstanding116,254,900
10 Day Avg. Volume354,730
30 Day Avg. Volume406,223
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.32
Price to Book (P/B)0.24
Price to Sales (P/S)0.10
P/FCF Ratio5.36
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)137.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥1.21T
Nippon Paper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd. engages in paper manufacturing and related businesses in Japan and internationally. It offers newsprint, printing and writing, and business communication papers; household paper products, including facial and bath...
How the Company Makes Money
Nippon Paper makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling paper and paper-based products to business and consumer markets. Key revenue streams include (1) printing and communication papers sold to publishers, printers, and corporate customer...
Nippon Paper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.19T | 1.18T | 1.17T | 1.15T | 1.05T | 1.01T |
| Gross Profit | 194.06B | 186.73B | 177.27B | 140.42B | 169.22B | 200.19B |
| EBITDA | 87.84B | 87.50B | 82.53B | 40.47B | 79.66B | 84.93B |
| Net Income | 7.53B | 4.54B | 22.75B | -50.41B | 1.99B | 3.20B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.67T | 1.70T | 1.73T | 1.67T | 1.64T | 1.55T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 153.08B | 185.94B | 164.86B | 144.35B | 136.84B | 69.73B |
| Total Debt | 845.26B | 881.02B | 889.12B | 925.31B | 898.12B | 828.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.18T | 1.19T | 1.24T | 1.25T | 1.20T | 1.12T |
| Stockholders Equity | 468.73B | 482.03B | 468.79B | 394.65B | 426.93B | 412.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 21.72B | 28.62B | -23.53B | 12.70B | 20.43B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 72.79B | 90.28B | 65.82B | 72.38B | 84.20B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -33.44B | -22.03B | -66.17B | -61.25B | -182.94B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -18.27B | -46.57B | 5.12B | 54.31B | 113.70B |
Nippon Paper Technical Analysis
Positive
1169.00
Price Trends
1255.49
Positive
1193.19
Positive
1165.96
Positive
Market Momentum
38.64
Negative
77.10
Negative
93.30
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3863, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1169 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1289.85, below the 50-day MA of 1255.49, and above the 200-day MA of 1165.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 38.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.10 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.30 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3863.
Nippon Paper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | ¥142.25B | 9.24 | 3.97% | 2.71% | -4.09% | -16.62% | |
62 Neutral | ¥158.40B | 4.80 | 3.57% | 1.31% | 0.56% | -60.69% | |
62 Neutral | ¥816.92B | 9.64 | 2.55% | 3.51% | 3.97% | -49.92% | |
62 Neutral | ¥125.92B | 6.41 | ― | 3.19% | 12.06% | -36.55% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | ¥41.25B | -9.37 | -0.13% | 2.31% | -11.24% | -101.49% | |
59 Neutral | ¥156.90B | 8.74 | 1.66% | 1.53% | -1.57% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
JP:3863
Nippon Paper
1,371.00
314.57
29.78%
JP:3864
Mitsubishi Paper Mills
928.00
193.68
26.38%
JP:3861
Oji Holdings
824.70
191.59
30.26%
JP:3865
Hokuetsu Corporation
899.00
-171.31
-16.01%
JP:3880
Daio Paper Corporation
945.00
51.89
5.81%
JP:8032
Japan Pulp and Paper Co. Ltd.
1,096.00
506.22
85.83%
Nippon Paper Corporate Events
Nippon Paper Adds ¥280 Million to Board Stock Compensation Trust
Feb 6, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries has approved an additional contribution of 280 million yen to its existing Board Benefit Trust stock compensation plan to secure enough company shares for future grants to directors. Under this additional trust, the company...
Nippon Paper Lifts Profits on Recovery at Overseas Units Despite Flat Sales
Feb 6, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries reported consolidated net sales of ¥889.5 billion for the first three quarters of FY2026/3, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4% as growth in the Daily-Life Products Business offset weaker sales in the Paper and Pape...
Nippon Paper Posts Strong Profit Recovery and Confirms Full-Year Outlook
Feb 6, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries reported consolidated net sales of ¥889.5 billion for the nine months to 31 December 2025, essentially flat year on year, but achieved a 35.5% rise in operating profit to ¥15.0 billion and a sharp recovery in prof...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.