Nippon Paper (JP:3863)
:3863
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Nippon Paper
(3863)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,272.00
▲(8.81% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/30/26
The score is mainly driven by moderate financial performance: improving revenues and profitability with consistently positive operating cash flow, offset by elevated leverage and uneven earnings/free-cash-flow stability. Technicals are a headwind with price below key moving averages and weak momentum, while valuation is supportive due to a reasonable P/E despite a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Vertical integration and resource control
Nippon Paper’s vertical integration into pulp production and forestry procurement provides durable supply security and cost control. Over months this reduces raw-material exposure, supports manufacturing continuity, and helps sustain margins versus peers reliant on spot pulp markets.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
High debt levels relative to equity leave the company exposed to interest rate and refinancing risk. Elevated leverage constrains strategic flexibility, limits capacity to invest organically or pursue M&A, and raises the sensitivity of earnings to cyclical downturns over months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vertical integration and resource control
Nippon Paper’s vertical integration into pulp production and forestry procurement provides durable supply security and cost control. Over months this reduces raw-material exposure, supports manufacturing continuity, and helps sustain margins versus peers reliant on spot pulp markets.
Read all positive factors
Nippon Paper (3863) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
Market Cap
¥140.72B
Dividend Yield1.31%
Average Volume (3M)406.22K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.0
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth0.86%
EPS Growth158.75%
CountryJP
Employees15,557
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)65.24
Shares Outstanding116,254,900
10 Day Avg. Volume354,730
30 Day Avg. Volume406,223
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.29
Price to Sales (P/S)0.12
P/FCF Ratio7.08
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)122.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)¥1.21T
Nippon Paper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Established in 1949 and headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd. operates as a global enterprise with a primary focus on paper manufacturing and a wide array of related businesses. The company's extensive product portfolio ...
How the Company Makes Money
Nippon Paper makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling paper and paper-based products to business and consumer markets. Key revenue streams include (1) printing and communication papers sold to publishers, printers, and corporate customer...
Nippon Paper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.19T | 1.19T | 1.18T | 1.17T | 1.15T | 1.05T |
| Gross Profit | 194.06B | 199.01B | 186.73B | 177.27B | 140.42B | 169.22B |
| EBITDA | 87.84B | 88.42B | 87.50B | 82.53B | 40.47B | 79.66B |
| Net Income | 7.53B | 11.74B | 4.54B | 22.75B | -50.41B | 1.99B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.67T | 1.74T | 1.70T | 1.73T | 1.67T | 1.64T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 153.08B | 207.41B | 185.94B | 164.86B | 144.35B | 136.84B |
| Total Debt | 845.26B | 876.86B | 881.02B | 889.12B | 925.31B | 898.12B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.18T | 1.20T | 1.19T | 1.24T | 1.25T | 1.20T |
| Stockholders Equity | 468.73B | 508.47B | 482.03B | 468.79B | 394.65B | 426.93B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 20.70B | 21.72B | 28.62B | -23.53B | 12.70B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 74.99B | 72.79B | 90.28B | 65.82B | 72.38B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -43.58B | -33.44B | -22.03B | -66.17B | -61.25B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -7.86B | -18.27B | -46.57B | 5.12B | 54.31B |
Nippon Paper Technical Analysis
Negative
1169.00
Price Trends
1342.28
Negative
1277.84
Negative
1215.41
Positive
Market Momentum
-44.53
Positive
37.89
Neutral
47.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3863, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1169 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1295.65, below the 50-day MA of 1342.28, and below the 200-day MA of 1215.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -44.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3863.
Nippon Paper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | ¥125.81B | 35.61 | ― | 3.19% | 9.42% | -35.70% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | ¥671.74B | 12.82 | 2.55% | 3.51% | 0.67% | 31.73% | |
57 Neutral | ¥147.00B | 20.60 | 3.97% | 2.71% | -5.88% | -52.79% | |
55 Neutral | ¥47.17B | 24.48 | -0.13% | 2.31% | -10.51% | -56.26% | |
52 Neutral | ¥140.72B | 11.97 | 3.57% | 1.31% | 0.86% | 158.75% | |
49 Neutral | ¥154.41B | 17.31 | 1.66% | 1.53% | -0.32% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
JP:3863
Nippon Paper
1,218.00
209.01
20.71%
JP:3864
Mitsubishi Paper Mills
1,061.00
468.05
78.94%
JP:3861
Oji Holdings
791.00
131.72
19.98%
JP:3865
Hokuetsu Corporation
929.00
-42.06
-4.33%
JP:3880
Daio Paper Corporation
930.00
144.34
18.37%
JP:8032
Japan Pulp and Paper Co. Ltd.
1,095.00
511.96
87.81%
Nippon Paper Corporate Events
Nippon Paper Reports Fatal Tank Collapse at U.S. Subsidiary
May 29, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries reported a serious industrial accident at its U.S. subsidiary Nippon Dynawave Packaging in Washington State, where a chemical tank collapsed on May 26. The company is coordinating with local police and fire authorities unde...
Nippon Paper unveils Medium-Term Plan 2030 with focus on debt cuts, profit gains and decarbonisation
May 28, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries has approved a new five-year Medium-Term Business Plan 2030, setting three core strategies of balance sheet optimization, structural reforms, and profitability improvement. The company will focus on cutting interest-bearing...
Nippon Paper Reports Fatal Tank Collapse at U.S. Subsidiary
May 27, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries has reported a serious industrial accident at its U.S. subsidiary, Nippon Dynawave Packaging, where a chemical tank collapsed at a Washington State facility on May 26 local time. The company confirmed multiple fatalities an...
Nippon Paper Corrects Financial Target in 2030 Medium-Term Plan
May 18, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries has issued a partial correction to its previously announced summary of the Medium-Term Business Plan 2030, clarifying a key financial target. The change affects the company’s projected net debt-to-equity ratio for fis...
Nippon Paper Sets Out Summary of New Medium-Term Business Plan 2030
May 15, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries has approved a new Medium-Term Business Plan 2030, set to begin in April 2026 and run through 2030, aiming to boost corporate value and support a more sustainable society. The plan builds on the achievements and challenges ...
Nippon Paper Sets Bigger Cross-Shareholding Cut After Beating Target Early
May 15, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries has accelerated the unwinding of its cross-shareholdings, having reached its earlier goal of selling ¥15 billion in listed cross-held shares two years ahead of schedule by the end of fiscal 2025. Building on this faste...
Nippon Paper Lifts Profit on Overseas Strength, Sets Ambitious 2030 Capital Targets
May 15, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries reported a modest 0.9% year-on-year increase in net sales to ¥1.19 trillion for FY2026/3, driven mainly by higher volumes in its Daily-Life Products Business as recent investments began to bear fruit. Operating income ...
Nippon Paper lifts profit and dividend but flags weaker earnings outlook
May 15, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries reported fiscal 2025 net sales of ¥1.19 trillion, up 0.9% year on year, with operating profit rising 27.9% to ¥25.2 billion and profit attributable to owners of parent surging 158.7% to ¥11.7 billion. Improve...
Nippon Paper reshapes leadership with director and executive changes
May 15, 2026
Nippon Paper Industries has announced upcoming changes to its board and executive lineup, centered on leadership shifts within key group subsidiaries and domestic mills. Director Atsumi Yasunaga will retire in June alongside stepping down as presi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.