Oji Holdings (3861) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥939.75B
• Dividend Yield: 3.51%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.58
• Revenue Growth: 3.91%
• EPS Growth: -22.16%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 38,322
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): 21.96
• Shares Outstanding: 1,014,381,840
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,020,360
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,220,993
• PEG Ratio: -1.71
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.33
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 53.35
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥1.86T

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥983.00 ▲(23.20% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 10/30/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 10/30/25

The overall stock score of 62 reflects moderate financial performance with consistent revenue growth but challenges in profitability and cash flow. Technical analysis indicates mixed momentum, while valuation suggests the stock may be overvalued. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data limits further insights.

Positive Factors

Vertical integration across pulp-to-logistics

Oji's integrated vertical structure lets it capture value at multiple stages (pulp, paper, converting, logistics). This reduces reliance on third-party suppliers, supports steadier supply, and creates durable margin and customer-retention advantages over the medium term.

Consistent revenue growth

Steady ~4% revenue growth indicates persistent demand for paper and packaging solutions and supports predictable top-line performance. Continued diversified sales across product and packaging segments helps revenue resilience and underpins medium-term planning and capacity utilization.

Moderate leverage and stable capital structure

A D/E around 0.82 and stable equity ratio reflect a balanced approach to financing. Manageable leverage preserves capacity to fund capital expenditures and working capital, maintaining strategic flexibility and reducing refinancing risk over a 2–6 month horizon.

Negative Factors

Declining return on equity

A drop in ROE from 9.8% to 4.2% signals weakening returns on shareholder capital and deterioration in capital efficiency. Persistently lower ROE constrains reinvestment, dividend capacity and long-term shareholder value creation unless operational margins or asset productivity improve.

Negative free cash flow

Negative free cash flow indicates capital expenditures and cash outflows outpacing operating cash generation. This limits internal funding for debt reduction, dividends or growth projects and increases reliance on external financing, impairing financial resilience over the medium term.

Earnings contraction / EPS decline

A near-50% decline in EPS and compressing net margins (reported ~2.5%) reflect material earnings pressure. Such earnings volatility reduces retained earnings for investment, weakens credit metrics over time, and raises sensitivity to input-cost or pricing shocks.

Oji Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Oji Holdings Corporation (3861) is a leading Japanese company primarily engaged in the production and sale of paper products and packaging solutions. With a diverse portfolio that spans various sectors, including paper manufacturing, pulp production, and packaging, Oji Holdings serves a wide array of industries, from consumer goods to industrial applications. The company is also involved in renewable energy initiatives, leveraging its resources to support sustainable practices within its operations and product offerings.

How the Company Makes Money

Oji Holdings generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from its core operations in paper and packaging. The company manufactures a wide range of paper products, including printing paper, tissue paper, and specialty paper, which are sold to businesses both domestically and internationally. Additionally, Oji Holdings produces packaging materials, such as corrugated containers and flexible packaging, catering to various industries including food and beverage, electronics, and pharmaceuticals. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with other firms in the supply chain, enhancing its market reach and operational efficiency. Furthermore, Oji Holdings capitalizes on the growing demand for sustainable and eco-friendly products, investing in renewable energy and recycling initiatives that not only contribute to its revenue but also align with global sustainability trends.

Oji Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Oji Holdings shows consistent revenue growth but faces challenges in profitability and cash flow stability. The balance sheet is stable, though rising debt levels could pose future risks.

Income Statement

The company exhibits moderate growth with revenue increasing from the previous year. Gross profit margin is stable at around 18% over the years, while net profit margin shows a decreasing trend, currently at 2.5%. EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect a slight decrease, indicating some pressure on operational efficiency. Despite these challenges, the company manages to maintain a positive revenue growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.82, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. However, the increase in total debt over recent years poses a potential risk. Return on equity has decreased from 9.8% to 4.2%, highlighting a reduction in profitability relative to shareholders' equity. The equity ratio remains stable, reflecting a consistent capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a significant decrease in free cash flow, turning negative in the most recent year, which could indicate challenges in sustaining capital investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains favorable, suggesting efficient cash generation from operations. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio signals potential cash constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.87T	1.85T	1.70T	1.71T	1.47T	1.36T
Gross Profit	340.97B	349.39B	324.08B	340.00B	343.95B	327.43B
EBITDA	143.76B	199.47B	166.15B	165.02B	202.64B	151.53B
Net Income	23.30B	46.17B	50.81B	56.48B	87.51B	49.63B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.59T	2.64T	2.44T	2.30T	2.05T	1.98T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.10B	65.86B	62.86B	57.07B	55.82B	136.25B
Total Debt	948.67B	903.39B	736.72B	788.34B	650.51B	647.68B
Total Liabilities	1.53T	1.50T	1.35T	1.33T	1.18T	1.12T
Stockholders Equity	1.04T	1.10T	1.07T	937.08B	851.39B	751.18B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-49.51B	87.88B	-75.85B	44.93B	32.43B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	94.42B	202.90B	18.26B	143.59B	127.11B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-154.91B	-118.00B	-123.27B	-92.57B	-91.56B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	60.97B	-84.90B	101.79B	-136.00B	19.93B

Oji Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 797.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3861, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 797.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 966.35, below the 50-day MA of 924.40, and below the 200-day MA of 801.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 15.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:3861.

Oji Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3865	66 Neutral	¥169.73B	9.24	4.52%	2.71%	-0.03%	120.35%
3861	62 Neutral	¥939.75B	9.64	2.87%	3.51%	3.91%	-22.16%
3863	62 Neutral	¥151.81B	4.80	3.57%	1.31%	1.64%	-10.74%
8032	62 Neutral	¥129.14B	6.41	―	3.19%	4.06%	-73.92%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
3864	59 Neutral	¥36.90B	-9.37	3.95%	2.31%	-10.04%	43.13%
3880	59 Neutral	¥198.91B	8.74	-1.54%	1.53%	-2.89%	-15.89%

Oji Holdings Corporate Events

Oji Holdings Advances Large-Scale Share Buyback Program in February 2026

Oji Holdings Corporation has continued its share repurchase program, buying back 6,114,400 shares of its common stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in February 2026 at a total cost of approximately JPY 5.87 billion. These purchases were executed via market transactions under a discretionary trading contract as part of a previously authorized buyback framework.

Cumulatively, the company has repurchased 20,304,600 shares for about JPY 18.38 billion under the Board-approved program that allows up to 82 million shares or JPY 50 billion in buybacks through December 16, 2026. The ongoing share repurchases indicate an active capital allocation strategy that may enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares outstanding and signaling management’s confidence in the company’s valuation.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3861) stock is a Hold with a Yen1047.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oji Holdings stock, see the JP:3861 Stock Forecast page.

Oji Holdings Reshapes Top Management With Board-Level Change

Oji Holdings has announced a change in its top management structure, with the Board of Directors resolving to alter the role of one of its senior leaders. The move reflects an internal reorganization of governance and leadership responsibilities.

Effective April 1, 2026, Masatoshi Kaku will step down as Representative Director and Chairman of the Board to serve as a Director of the Board. The adjustment signals a shift in the company’s executive lineup that may influence how strategic decisions and oversight are allocated at the board level.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3861) stock is a Hold with a Yen1037.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oji Holdings stock, see the JP:3861 Stock Forecast page.

Oji Holdings Posts Sharp Profit Decline but Keeps Full-Year Forecast and Dividend Plan

Oji Holdings reported marginally higher consolidated net sales of ¥1,392.9 billion for the first nine months of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, but profitability deteriorated sharply, with operating profit down 53.2%, ordinary profit down 63.9%, and profit attributable to owners of parent down 38.5% year on year, alongside a plunge in comprehensive income. The company’s shareholders’ equity ratio slipped from 41.8% to 39.8% and net assets per share declined, reflecting weaker earnings and an increase in treasury shares, yet Oji maintained its full-year earnings and dividend forecasts, signaling management’s view that current headwinds are manageable and that no major revision to its operational or capital return plans is warranted at this stage.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3861) stock is a Hold with a Yen994.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oji Holdings stock, see the JP:3861 Stock Forecast page.

Oji Holdings Accelerates Share Buyback Under ¥50 Billion Authorization

Oji Holdings has continued its ongoing share repurchase program authorized by its board in December 2025, buying back 7,979,600 shares of common stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange between January 1 and January 31, 2026, for a total of approximately ¥7.25 billion via market purchases under a discretionary trading contract. This latest tranche brings cumulative repurchases under the current authorization to 14,190,200 shares at a cost of about ¥12.51 billion, indicating active use of its up-to-¥50 billion, up-to-82 million-share buyback capacity, which is likely aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and optimizing capital structure within the authorized one-year period.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3861) stock is a Hold with a Yen970.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oji Holdings stock, see the JP:3861 Stock Forecast page.

Oji Holdings Reports Initial Progress on ¥50 Billion Share Buyback Program

Oji Holdings has disclosed the status of its latest share buyback, executed under a board resolution that authorizes a large-scale repurchase of its common stock. Between December 17 and 31, 2025, the company repurchased 6,210,600 shares of its common stock through the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s off-auction ToSTNeT-3 system, at a total cost of approximately ¥5.26 billion, as part of a broader program permitting the acquisition of up to 82 million shares or ¥50 billion through December 16, 2026. As of the end of December 2025, this initial tranche represents the first phase of the buyback, signaling management’s continued commitment to shareholder returns and capital efficiency through treasury share acquisition.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3861) stock is a Hold with a Yen830.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oji Holdings stock, see the JP:3861 Stock Forecast page.

Oji Holdings Launches ¥50 Billion Share Buyback with Initial ¥5.3 Billion Repurchase

Oji Holdings Corporation has completed a buyback of 6,210,600 shares of its common stock on December 23, 2025 via the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s ToSTNeT-3 off-auction trading system, spending approximately JPY 5.26 billion at an average price of JPY 847.1 per share. This transaction is the first execution under a broader board-approved share repurchase program authorized on December 16, 2025, which allows for buybacks of up to 82 million shares, or about 9% of outstanding shares excluding treasury stock, and up to JPY 50 billion through December 16, 2026, signaling ongoing capital return to shareholders and potentially supporting the company’s share price and capital efficiency over the medium term.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3861) stock is a Hold with a Yen830.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oji Holdings stock, see the JP:3861 Stock Forecast page.

Oji Holdings Sets Terms for Initial Tranche of ¥50 Billion Share Buyback

Oji Holdings has set specific terms for a previously approved share buyback, announcing it will repurchase up to 7 million shares, or about 0.8% of its outstanding stock (excluding treasury shares), via the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s off-auction ToSTNeT-3 system at the December 22 closing price of ¥847.1 per share on the morning of December 23, 2025. This tranche, capped at roughly ¥5.93 billion, forms part of a larger buyback program authorized by the board on December 16, 2025, allowing up to 82 million shares and ¥50 billion in total repurchases through December 2026; the move underscores the company’s intention to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure, though execution may be adjusted depending on market conditions and available sell orders, including those from a shareholder that has indicated an intention to sell.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3861) stock is a Hold with a Yen830.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oji Holdings stock, see the JP:3861 Stock Forecast page.

Oji Holdings Announces Strategic Share Repurchase Plan

Oji Holdings Corporation announced a resolution to repurchase treasury shares, aiming to improve capital efficiency and enhance shareholder returns as part of its Medium-Term Management Plan 2027. The company plans to acquire up to 82 million shares, with a maximum acquisition cost of JPY 50 billion, through market trades on the Tokyo Stock Exchange over the next year.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3861) stock is a Hold with a Yen830.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oji Holdings stock, see the JP:3861 Stock Forecast page.

Oji Holdings Completes Treasury Share Repurchase

Oji Holdings Corporation has completed the repurchase of 1,303,700 treasury shares, amounting to JPY 1,059,358,660, as part of a resolution by its Board of Directors. This move is part of a larger strategy to acquire up to 100 million shares, representing 10.1% of outstanding shares, with a maximum budget of JPY 50 billion, aimed at enhancing shareholder value and optimizing capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3861) stock is a Hold with a Yen830.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oji Holdings stock, see the JP:3861 Stock Forecast page.