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NEXON Co Ltd (JP:3659)
:3659

NEXON Co (3659) AI Stock Analysis

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JP

NEXON Co

(OTC:3659)

77Outperform
NEXON Co's overall strong financial performance and positive technical indicators drive its favorable stock score. The solid profitability, coupled with efficient cost management and financial stability, are key strengths. Valuation metrics suggest a fair market price, while technical indicators point to an upward trend, albeit with caution advised due to potential overbought conditions.
Positive Factors
Earnings Performance
Nexon’s 1Q results surprised positively with OP of ¥41.6b (+43% YoY) well above the mid-point guide of ¥32.5b and Cons of ¥34b.
Shareholder Returns
7% capital return yield is hard to argue with, as management promises significant buybacks and dividends, making a negative view on Nexon’s shares high-risk.
Negative Factors
Management and Investor Relations
Departure of prior CEO Owen Mahoney added to the de-rating with an increased language barrier between domestic investors and top management.
Operational Challenges
Nexon finds itself caught between declines in its biggest profit centres in DNF in China, cyclical revenues from MapleStory and FC, and investments in new projects that have yet to pay off.

NEXON Co (3659) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

NEXON Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNEXON Co., Ltd. produces, develops, and services PC online and mobile games. It operates through five segments: Japan, Korea, China, North America, and Others. The company's PC online game titles include MapleStory, Dungeon & Fighter, and EA SPORTS FIFA ONLINE 4. It offers approximately 60 online games in 190 countries. The company was formerly known as NEXON Japan Co., Ltd. and changed its name to NEXON Co., Ltd. in April 2009. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyNEXON Co. generates revenue primarily through a free-to-play model with microtransactions, where games are free to download and play, but players can purchase in-game items, enhancements, and virtual currency to enhance their gaming experience. This model allows NEXON to capitalize on a broad user base by offering premium content and services. Additionally, the company earns revenue through partnerships and collaborations with other gaming companies, as well as licensing agreements that allow third parties to develop or distribute its games. NEXON also benefits from its strategic investments in other gaming-related companies, further diversifying its revenue streams.

NEXON Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NEXON Co exhibits strong financial health with significant revenue and profit growth, efficient cost management, and a solid balance sheet. The company's profitability and cash flow generation are impressive, positioning it well in the industry.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
NEXON Co has demonstrated strong revenue growth and profitability over the years. The revenue growth rate for 2024 was 5.41%, indicating a positive trend. Gross profit margin has remained robust at approximately 63% in 2024, showing efficiency in cost management. The net profit margin improved significantly to 30.21% in 2024, reflecting enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have been consistently strong, with 2024 figures at 31.19% and 30.10% respectively.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 81.09% in 2024, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.39, suggesting prudent leverage management. ROE has improved to 13.23% in 2024, indicating efficient use of equity. However, the high level of cash and short-term investments relative to liabilities suggests a conservative approach to asset utilization.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
NEXON Co's cash flow statement reveals strong free cash flow generation, with a slight decline in free cash flow from 2023 to 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio was 0.72 in 2024, indicating robust cash conversion from profits. Operating cash flow to net income ratio was 0.75, reflecting effective cash management. The free cash flow growth rate was negative, but overall cash flow remains strong.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
446.21B423.36B353.71B274.46B293.02B
Gross Profit
281.37B281.11B247.94B202.34B224.01B
EBIT
139.20B137.68B158.77B138.42B111.45B
EBITDA
134.32B141.81B115.83B102.75B130.07B
Net Income Common Stockholders
134.85B70.61B100.34B114.89B56.22B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
600.87B596.76B432.45B394.38B279.91B
Total Assets
1.26T1.10T1.04T986.63B862.16B
Total Debt
40.00B29.72B23.32B15.33B16.59B
Net Debt
-291.93B-250.79B-386.04B-349.91B-235.98B
Total Liabilities
226.25B191.53B175.30B140.74B141.72B
Stockholders Equity
1.02T896.27B858.19B836.67B709.88B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
97.33B123.00B124.24B91.79B134.37B
Operating Cash Flow
100.97B128.71B130.14B105.91B137.60B
Investing Cash Flow
7.45B-188.37B-10.92B18.08B-140.23B
Financing Cash Flow
-64.78B-78.55B-105.86B-21.05B-2.63B

NEXON Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2614.00
Price Trends
50DMA
2131.26
Positive
100DMA
2137.04
Positive
200DMA
2408.67
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
100.09
Negative
RSI
73.53
Negative
STOCH
80.90
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3659, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2614 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2254.75, above the 50-day MA of 2131.26, and above the 200-day MA of 2408.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 100.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.53 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3659.

NEXON Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$1.82T15.0012.67%0.93%10.80%138.34%
60
Neutral
$14.02B6.62-2.88%3.71%2.35%-37.08%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:3659
NEXON Co
2,614.00
-26.28
-1.00%
GB:KNM
KONAMI HOLDINGS
19,040.00
8,767.11
85.34%
RKUNF
Rakuten
6.02
0.93
18.27%
DNACF
DeNA Co
22.89
13.62
146.93%
NTDOF
Nintendo Co
78.92
24.40
44.75%
SQNXF
Square Enix Holdings Co
60.94
30.98
103.40%

NEXON Co Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: 14.77%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of strong growth in key areas such as record-breaking revenue and notable success in Western markets, particularly for The First Descendant. However, the call also highlighted challenges like the impact of FX on revenue, declines in specific franchises, and a significant net income decrease due to FX losses. The commitment to shareholder returns and strategic investments for long-term growth provide a positive outlook despite immediate challenges.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Quarterly Revenue
NEXON delivered record-breaking quarterly revenue at JPY 135.6 billion, up 13% year-over-year, and record-breaking Q3 operating income at JPY 51.5 billion, up 11% year-over-year.
Dungeon&Fighter Mobile Success
The Dungeon&Fighter franchise delivered 142% growth year-over-year due primarily to the launch of Dungeon&Fighter Mobile in China.
MapleStory Outside Korea Performance
Revenue from PC MapleStory outside of Korea improved by 23% year-over-year, led by Japan, North America, and Europe.
The First Descendant Western Market Success
Approximately 75% of the global revenue for The First Descendant came from Western markets.
Shareholder Return Policy
Board of Directors authorized a JPY 20 billion share repurchase and doubled the year-end dividend forecast from JPY 7.5 per share to JPY 15.
Negative Updates
FX Impact on Revenue
The top line was slightly below the outlook due to negative impact from FX.
MapleStory Franchise Revenue Decrease
MapleStory franchise revenues decreased year-over-year due to a tough comparison with Q3 2023.
Net Income Decline
Net income was below the outlook at JPY 27 billion, down 23% year-over-year, principally due to an FX loss of JPY 19.6 billion.
Prepaid Royalty Impairment Loss
In Q4, a prepaid royalty impairment loss of JPY 6.5 billion was related to the termination of one of our publishing projects.
The First Descendant Decline
The First Descendant missed expectations due to faster-than-anticipated decline in traffic.
Company Guidance
In the Q3 2024 earnings call, NEXON executives provided a comprehensive update on the company's financial performance and future guidance. The company reported record-breaking quarterly revenue of JPY 135.6 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, and a record Q3 operating income of JPY 51.5 billion, up 11% year-over-year. However, the net income was below expectations at JPY 27 billion, down 23% year-over-year, primarily due to an FX loss of JPY 19.6 billion. Looking forward, NEXON expects Q4 revenues to range between JPY 83.8 billion to JPY 94.7 billion and anticipates operating income to be between a loss of JPY 1.3 billion to a profit of JPY 7.2 billion, excluding a JPY 6.5 billion impairment loss. The company is targeting a 50% revenue CAGR and a 70% operating income CAGR from 2023 to 2027, with annual revenue and operating income expected to reach JPY 750 billion and JPY 250 billion, respectively. Despite challenges, NEXON remains confident in its growth strategy, highlighted by plans to repurchase JPY 20 billion in shares and a revised shareholder return policy aiming for a minimum ROE of 10% to 15%.

NEXON Co Corporate Events

NEXON Co. Exceeds Q1 2025 Financial Expectations
May 13, 2025

NEXON Co., Ltd. reported better-than-expected financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with operating profit surpassing initial forecasts. This positive outcome was attributed to strong revenue performance in Korea and lower-than-anticipated costs, including human resources and marketing expenses.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3659) stock is a Buy with a Yen4230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NEXON Co stock, see the JP:3659 Stock Forecast page.

NEXON Co. Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results with Mixed Outcomes
May 13, 2025

NEXON Co., Ltd. reported its consolidated financial results for the first quarter of 2025, showing a 5.1% increase in revenue compared to the previous year. However, the company experienced a significant decline in profit before tax and profit attributable to owners of the parent, with decreases of 28.6% and 26.9% respectively. Despite the revenue growth, the overall financial performance highlights challenges in maintaining profitability, which may impact stakeholder confidence and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3659) stock is a Buy with a Yen4230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NEXON Co stock, see the JP:3659 Stock Forecast page.

NEXON Co., Ltd. Reports Progress on Share Buyback Program
May 1, 2025

NEXON Co., Ltd. announced the status of its ongoing share buyback program, having acquired 5,705,300 shares for approximately JPY 11.8 billion in April 2025. This buyback is part of a larger plan to repurchase up to 32 million shares, with a maximum budget of JPY 50 billion, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital structure.

NEXON Announces Financial Results of Affiliated Company NXC Corporation
Apr 25, 2025

NEXON Co., Ltd. announced the financial results of its affiliated company, NXC Corporation, for the year ended December 31, 2024. NXC Corporation, which manages subsidiaries and real estate, reported a shareholding structure dominated by individual shareholders, with the Ministry of Economy and Finance holding a significant portion. This announcement highlights NEXON’s broader corporate structure and its strategic management of affiliated entities, which may impact its operational and financial strategies.

NEXON Co., Ltd. Reports Progress on Share Buyback Program
Apr 1, 2025

NEXON Co., Ltd. has announced the status of its share buyback program, acquiring 6,028,000 ordinary shares for approximately JPY 12.23 billion from March 1 to March 31, 2025. This buyback is part of a larger plan approved by the Board of Directors to acquire up to 32 million shares, with a maximum budget of JPY 50 billion, aimed at enhancing shareholder value and optimizing the capital structure.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.