Morpho, Inc. (3653) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥4.20B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 24.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.13
• Revenue Growth: 1.78%
• EPS Growth: -125.35%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 162
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 25.34
• Shares Outstanding: 5,508,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,970
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 24,810
• PEG Ratio: 0.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.46
• P/FCF Ratio: -132.87
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥857.00 ▲(1.18% Upside)

The score is primarily driven by solid financial stability from a near debt-free balance sheet, but it is held back by the return to losses and negative free cash flow in 2025. Technically, the stock shows mixed momentum with longer-term trend weakness, and valuation is pressured by a negative P/E and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Near-zero net debt / strong balance sheet

A near-zero debt profile provides durable financial flexibility and low solvency risk. Over the next 2–6 months this supports continued R&D or strategic investment, cushions operating volatility, and reduces refinancing pressure if cash flows remain uneven.

Healthy gross margin (~55% in 2025)

Sustained gross margins near 55% indicate structural pricing power and a scalable software cost base. This margin level affords the company room to fund sales and product investment while preserving operating leverage as revenue growth normalizes over the medium term.

Strong revenue rebound in 2025

A 239% revenue uptick signals meaningful demand recovery or successful commercialization of offerings. If sustainable, this can expand market share and validate product-market fit, enabling higher operating leverage and long-term scale benefits beyond short-term volatility.

Negative Factors

Return to net loss and negative free cash flow in 2025

Reverting to losses with negative free cash flow depletes internally available funding and raises the likelihood of external financing or cutbacks. Over months this constrains investment, heightens execution risk, and limits the firm’s ability to convert revenue growth into durable profitability.

Material cash-generation volatility

Repeated periods of negative operating and free cash flow demonstrate persistent cash-conversion weakness. This variability complicates multi-quarter planning, increases sensitivity to revenue swings, and can force defensive measures that hinder long-term growth initiatives.

Inconsistent profitability and margin compression

Shifting from ~9% net margin to a negative margin within a year signals unstable cost structure or execution issues. This inconsistency undermines confidence in sustainable earnings power and suggests management must address structural cost levers to restore durable profitability.

Morpho, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Morpho, Inc. engages in the research, development, and licensing of artificial intelligence (AI) and image processing technologies in Japan, the United States, China, South Korea, Europe, and internationally. It offers image processing products, such as image stabilization and noise reduction; video stabilization; video generation; video processing software package; noise reduction in video; HDR image generation; DR-corrected image generation; panorama image generation for selfie photography; motion vector detection; photo effect filters library; image super resolution; frame interpolation; cinemagraph; and smooth camera switching for zooming. The company also provides AI products, that includes fast AI inference engine, image enhancement by AI Based segmentation and pixel filtering, pose estimation, bokeh image generation using dual cameras, image classification, object detection, single camera background blur, image segmentation, object tracking, automatic mask generation, automatic wipe generation, and training data for AI development. Its solutions are used in smart devices, automotives, semiconductors, medical products, digital media, and smart city. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Morpho, Inc. generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around the sale of biometric hardware and software solutions. Key revenue streams include direct sales of biometric devices, subscription fees for software services, and maintenance contracts for installed systems. Additionally, the company engages in partnerships with government agencies and large corporations, enabling it to secure long-term contracts that provide steady income. The growing demand for security solutions in various sectors, coupled with the expanding use of biometric technology globally, contributes significantly to Morpho's earnings.

Morpho, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong balance sheet with effectively no debt supports financial resilience, but operating results are volatile: despite sharp 2025 revenue growth, the company swung back to a net loss and free cash flow turned negative, raising execution and cash-conversion risk.

Income Statement

Revenue growth accelerated sharply in 2025 (about +239% year over year), showing a meaningful rebound in demand. Profitability, however, weakened versus 2024: the company moved from a solid profit in 2024 (about 9% net margin) back to a small loss in 2025 (about -2% net margin), and operating profitability also compressed. Gross margin remains healthy (~55% in 2025), but the recent swing back to losses highlights execution risk and earnings volatility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a key strength: debt is effectively minimal (debt-to-equity near zero across periods, and zero in 2025), indicating low financial risk and strong flexibility. Equity remains substantial relative to assets, providing a solid cushion. The main weakness is returns to shareholders: return on equity turned negative again in 2025 after a strong 2024, reflecting inconsistent profitability rather than balance-sheet stress.

Cash Flow

Cash generation deteriorated materially in 2025: operating cash flow was only slightly positive and free cash flow turned negative, reversing 2024’s positive free cash flow. Earlier years also show sizeable cash burn (negative operating and free cash flow in 2021–2023), pointing to volatility in cash conversion and reinvestment needs. While the low-debt profile reduces liquidity pressure, the recent negative free cash flow is a clear near-term concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.28B	3.36B	3.30B	2.38B	2.00B	1.73B
Gross Profit	1.79B	1.84B	1.90B	1.36B	952.07M	866.53M
EBITDA	40.62M	159.15M	326.88M	-226.63M	-473.41M	-734.07M
Net Income	-68.92M	-77.57M	301.48M	-300.18M	-668.39M	-793.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.97B	4.15B	4.26B	3.71B	3.86B	4.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.37B	2.53B	2.94B	2.71B	3.06B	3.39B
Total Debt	2.73M	0.00	23.29M	36.25M	12.84M	21.95M
Total Liabilities	500.00M	526.38M	621.77M	558.59M	460.63M	400.45M
Stockholders Equity	3.47B	3.62B	3.64B	3.15B	3.40B	4.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-37.01M	65.73M	-365.22M	-477.78M	-694.79M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	14.06M	207.18M	-267.62M	-415.53M	-653.58M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-413.32M	-140.72M	-92.50M	161.38M	-175.87M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-9.22M	131.83M	-16.21M	-176.43M	-257.00M

Morpho, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 847.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3653, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 847 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 828.40, above the 50-day MA of 831.86, and below the 200-day MA of 1055.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -10.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3653.

Morpho, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4372	79 Outperform	¥5.42B	11.99	―	1.28%	13.05%	3.18%
3933	75 Outperform	¥5.10B	9.85	―	1.84%	86.36%	116.52%
4446	69 Neutral	¥16.53B	181.59	―	―	14.10%	-53.62%
4379	64 Neutral	¥6.38B	25.74	―	―	11.35%	160.35%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
4447	61 Neutral	¥3.19B	35.33	―	4.17%	-15.23%	-65.39%
3653	54 Neutral	¥4.20B	-52.61	―	―	1.78%	-125.35%