Morpho, Inc. (3653) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥4.86B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 24.81K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 1.91%
• EPS Growth: -122.15%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 162
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): -3.39
• Shares Outstanding: 5,508,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,970
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 24,810
• PEG Ratio: -0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.31
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 127.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥1,138.00 ▲(29.76% Upside)

Morpho, Inc. shows strong financial performance with a significant turnaround to profitability and a robust balance sheet. However, technical indicators are bearish, and the valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield. The financial recovery is the most significant positive factor, but technical and valuation concerns weigh down the overall score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The substantial revenue growth indicates strong market demand and successful business strategies, positioning Morpho for sustained expansion in the biometric solutions market.

Balance Sheet Health

A strong balance sheet with no debt and high equity ratio provides financial stability and flexibility, allowing Morpho to invest in growth opportunities without leverage risk.

Cash Flow Management

Improved cash flow management enhances Morpho's ability to fund operations and investments internally, supporting long-term growth and financial resilience.

Negative Factors

Earnings Volatility

Negative earnings per share suggest potential volatility in financial performance, which could impact investor confidence and long-term valuation stability.

Profitability Challenges

While profitability has improved, the recent transition from negative margins indicates ongoing challenges in maintaining consistent profit levels, which could affect future financial performance.

Earnings Growth Uncertainty

The significant negative EPS growth highlights uncertainty in earnings expansion, which may hinder Morpho's ability to deliver consistent shareholder returns over time.

Morpho, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Morpho, Inc. (3653) is a leading provider of advanced biometric solutions and identification systems. The company operates primarily in the technology and security sectors, offering a diverse range of products and services including fingerprint recognition systems, facial recognition technology, and identity management solutions. Morpho serves various markets including government, law enforcement, and commercial enterprises, focusing on enhancing security and efficiency through innovative identification technologies.

How the Company Makes Money

Morpho, Inc. generates revenue through multiple streams primarily centered around the sale of biometric hardware and software solutions. Key revenue streams include direct sales of biometric devices, subscription fees for software services, and maintenance contracts for installed systems. Additionally, the company engages in partnerships with government agencies and large corporations, enabling it to secure long-term contracts that provide steady income. The growing demand for security solutions in various sectors, coupled with the expanding use of biometric technology globally, contributes significantly to Morpho's earnings.

Morpho, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Morpho, Inc. has achieved a remarkable financial recovery, shifting from losses to profitability over the last year. The company exhibits strong revenue growth, improved profit margins, and a solid balance sheet with no debt. Cash flow management has also improved significantly, positioning the company for sustainable future growth.

Income Statement

Morpho, Inc. has demonstrated a remarkable turnaround with a significant increase in revenue from ¥2,383 million to ¥3,301 million, representing a 38.3% growth rate. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 57.6%, and the net profit margin has improved from a negative position to 9.13%. The company has successfully transitioned from negative EBIT and EBITDA margins to positive 7.79% and 9.90%, respectively, highlighting improved operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Morpho, Inc. is robust, with no debt and a strong equity position. The equity ratio stands at an impressive 85.43%, indicating financial stability and low leverage risk. The company's return on equity is solid at 8.28%, reflecting effective utilization of equity.

Cash Flow

Morpho, Inc. has shown a positive shift in cash flow management with free cash flow growing from a negative position to ¥65.72 million. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.69, demonstrating efficient cash generation from operations relative to net income. This improvement indicates better cash handling and operational performance.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.28B	3.30B	2.38B	2.00B	1.73B	2.07B
Gross Profit	1.79B	1.90B	1.36B	952.07M	866.53M	1.44B
EBITDA	40.62M	326.88M	-226.63M	-473.41M	-734.07M	-214.81M
Net Income	-68.92M	301.48M	-300.18M	-668.39M	-793.42M	-652.16M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.97B	4.26B	3.71B	3.86B	4.55B	5.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.37B	2.94B	2.71B	3.06B	3.39B	4.44B
Total Debt	2.73M	23.29M	36.25M	12.84M	21.95M	1.06M
Total Liabilities	500.00M	621.77M	558.59M	460.63M	400.45M	282.33M
Stockholders Equity	3.47B	3.64B	3.15B	3.40B	4.15B	5.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	65.73M	-365.22M	-477.78M	-694.79M	-176.87M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	207.18M	-267.62M	-415.53M	-653.58M	-62.55M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-140.72M	-92.50M	161.38M	-175.87M	-275.11M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	131.83M	-16.21M	-176.43M	-257.00M	767.00K

Morpho, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 877.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3653, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 877 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 898.20, below the 50-day MA of 971.04, and below the 200-day MA of 1152.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -27.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.90 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JP:3653.

Morpho, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
4372	81 Outperform	¥5.42B	12.00	―	1.28%	13.05%	3.18%
3933	75 Outperform	¥4.86B	12.14	―	1.86%	86.36%	116.52%
4446	66 Neutral	¥14.90B	100.66	―	―	32.04%	-35.59%
4379	65 Neutral	¥5.28B	21.70	―	―	11.35%	160.35%
4447	62 Neutral	¥3.09B	34.27	―	4.17%	-15.23%	-65.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
3653	58 Neutral	¥4.86B	-70.61	―	―	1.91%	-122.15%