Hobonichi Co., Ltd. (3560) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥8.31B
• Dividend Yield: 2.66%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.44K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.05
• Revenue Growth: 15.17%
• EPS Growth: 12.30%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 142
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 329.55
• Shares Outstanding: 2,321,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,740
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,440
• PEG Ratio: 1.32
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.83
• P/FCF Ratio: -32.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥3,920.00 ▲(14.12% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/04/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (especially the very clean balance sheet and solid profitability), partially tempered by inconsistent cash generation and negative free cash flow in 2025. Technicals add support due to a clear uptrend, while valuation is fair with a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term business expansion and stability.

Financial Stability

Low leverage and high equity provide financial stability, reducing risk and enhancing the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Cash Flow Improvement

Improved cash flow enhances financial flexibility, allowing the company to fund operations, invest in new projects, and return value to shareholders.

Negative Factors

Operational Efficiency

Limited operational cash efficiency could constrain the company's ability to optimize cash usage, potentially impacting long-term profitability.

Profit Margin Pressure

Decreasing EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest potential challenges in cost management, which could pressure future profitability if not addressed.

Earnings Call Data Absence

Lack of recent earnings call data limits insights into management's strategic direction and operational focus, potentially impacting investor confidence.

Hobonichi Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hobonichi Co., Ltd. engages in the operation and content creation of Hobonichi Itoi Shimbun website and the Hobonichi web store in Japan. The company plans, develops, and sells of Hobonichi Techo, Hobonichi Earthball, and other products. It also operates Hobonichi School; and Dokonoko, a photo posting app that connects dogs, cats, and humans. In addition, the company offers other books, stationery, miscellaneous goods, clothing, food, and products. Further, it is involved in the planning and operation of stores and events under the TOBICHI, Hobo Sunday, The Fun of Life Exhibition, and other brands. Hobonichi Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Hobonichi Co., Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its popular Hobonichi Techo planners and related stationery products. These products are marketed both domestically in Japan and internationally, capitalizing on the global appeal of Japanese stationery. The company's revenue model is largely based on direct sales through its online store and partnerships with retailers. Additionally, Hobonichi engages in collaborations with artists and designers to create limited edition products, which further drives sales and brand loyalty. The company's strategic focus on high-quality materials and unique design elements allows it to maintain premium pricing, contributing to its profitability.

Hobonichi Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals supported by steady revenue growth, solid margins, and an exceptionally conservative balance sheet (minimal debt, improving ROE). The key offset is weak and volatile cash-flow quality, including meaningfully negative free cash flow in 2025 despite positive earnings.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded steadily across the last several years (from 2020 through 2025), with 2025 showing continued growth. Profitability is solid for specialty retail, supported by consistently strong gross margin (~51% to ~57%) and improved operating profitability versus earlier years. The main drawback is that bottom-line margin has come off its peak (net margin ~6.0% in 2023 to ~5.2% in 2024–2025) and operating margin also eased versus 2023, indicating some incremental cost pressure.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is exceptionally conservative: debt is minimal and debt relative to equity is near zero in every year shown, which meaningfully reduces financial risk. Equity has risen over time, and returns on equity have been consistently healthy (roughly mid-single digits earlier, improving to ~9–10% in 2023–2025). The primary limitation is that, with so little leverage, future return improvement must come mainly from operating execution rather than balance-sheet optimization.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weakest area due to volatility. Operating cash flow is positive in most years but has been uneven, and it covered only a small portion of earnings in 2025. Free cash flow has swung between positive and negative, with 2025 turning meaningfully negative despite positive net income, suggesting working-capital swings and/or elevated investment levels. 2024 was strong (positive free cash flow close to earnings), but the inconsistency lowers overall quality and predictability.

Breakdown	Aug 2025	Aug 2024	Aug 2023	Aug 2022	Aug 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.68B	7.53B	6.82B	5.91B	5.64B
Gross Profit	4.95B	4.27B	3.88B	3.28B	3.09B
EBITDA	912.56M	747.05M	760.68M	428.35M	325.55M
Net Income	448.35M	399.20M	411.91M	205.71M	196.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.92B	6.49B	5.85B	5.32B	5.12B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	755.18M	1.19B	1.37B	1.62B	1.77B
Total Debt	8.96M	2.87M	7.22M	7.89M	9.03M
Total Liabilities	2.02B	1.97B	1.65B	1.45B	1.33B
Stockholders Equity	4.89B	4.52B	4.20B	3.86B	3.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-218.86M	372.36M	-37.70M	50.19M	-82.78M
Operating Cash Flow	158.47M	401.59M	162.66M	201.61M	466.59M
Investing Cash Flow	-485.58M	-467.33M	-292.33M	-255.08M	-291.42M
Financing Cash Flow	-105.05M	-106.45M	-106.93M	-106.84M	-106.35M

Hobonichi Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3435.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3560, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3435 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3617.50, below the 50-day MA of 3540.50, and above the 200-day MA of 3237.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 16.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3560.

Hobonichi Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3560	78 Outperform	¥8.31B	13.89	―	2.66%	15.17%	12.30%
3134	74 Outperform	¥8.27B	9.07	―	2.05%	13.52%	-42.59%
3159	69 Neutral	¥31.93B	7.63	―	0.90%	12.50%	11.02%
3138	63 Neutral	¥3.34B	44.02	―	1.63%	2.88%	-69.65%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
3396	60 Neutral	¥5.71B	10.64	―	1.76%	2.24%	―
2769	45 Neutral	¥7.62B	-2.21	―	―	-4.54%	-261.55%