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SUMCO Corporation (JP:3436)
:3436

SUMCO Corporation (3436) AI Stock Analysis

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JP:3436

SUMCO Corporation

(3436)

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Neutral 50 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
¥1,828.00
▲(0.03% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened fundamentals (net losses, margin pressure, and persistently negative free cash flow) and cautious near-term guidance for continued losses. Technicals are mixed with recent softness but a still-better longer-term trend. Valuation remains pressured by loss-making earnings, while the dividend provides only modest support.
Positive Factors
Operating cash flow strength
Consistently strong operating cash flow (JPY 100bn) provides durable internal funding for working capital and modernization. This cash generation cushions liquidity, supports dividends and strategic capex reductions, and lowers short-term refinancing risk across semiconductor cycles.
300‑mm recovery & AI demand tailwind
A structural recovery in 300‑mm driven by AI-related DRAM/NAND demand expands the addressable market for SUMCO’s higher-value wafers. Sustained secular growth in leading-edge wafers supports durable volume growth and a pathway to improved product mix and higher-margin sales over the medium term.
Manageable balance sheet and equity base
A sizable equity base and moderate leverage provide a structural cushion during downturns, preserving financial flexibility to fund modernization and capacity conversion. This supports the firm’s ability to endure cyclical losses while executing strategic shifts to leading-edge production.
Negative Factors
Shift to net losses
The move from profit to net loss signals durable pressure on headline earnings and retained earnings, weakening internal capital for long-term investments. Persistent losses increase reliance on cash reserves or external funding and heighten risk if wafer demand softens or pricing remains depressed.
High depreciation burden
Large, sustained depreciation from prior heavy capex materially depresses reported operating profits for multiple years. Even with strong cash flow, elevated non-cash charges hurt reported ROIC and earnings metrics, constraining perceived profitability and potentially limiting discretionary spending until asset lives amortize.
Structural 200‑mm decline & inventory overhang
A persistent decline in 200‑mm demand and soft spot pricing erode volumes and margins in legacy product lines. High legacy inventory and customer normalization will prolong weaker demand for commodity wafers, forcing costly capacity repurposing and pressuring near- to medium-term mix and profitability.

SUMCO Corporation (3436) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

SUMCO Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSumco Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry primarily in Japan, the United States, China, Taiwan, Korea, and internationally. It provides monocrystalline ingots, as well as polished, annealed, epitaxial, junction isolated, silicon-on-insulator, and reclaimed polished wafers. The company was formerly known as Sumitomo Mitsubishi Silicon Corp. and changed its name to Sumco Corporation in August 2005. Sumco Corporation was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneySUMCO Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of silicon wafers to semiconductor manufacturers. The company operates on a business-to-business model, where its key revenue streams include the supply of various sizes and types of silicon wafers tailored to specific client requirements. Additionally, SUMCO benefits from long-term contracts with major semiconductor firms, which provide a stable revenue base. The company also invests in research and development to innovate its product offerings, enhance wafer quality, and reduce manufacturing costs, thereby improving profit margins. Strategic partnerships with technology leaders in the semiconductor space further bolster SUMCO's market position and contribute to its earnings.

SUMCO Corporation Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Balanced/Neutral — The company showed clear strengths (positive operating cash flow of JPY 100.0 billion, reduced CapEx, Q4 sales beat and a full‑year operating profit of JPY 1.3 billion) and constructive medium‑term demand signals from AI driving DRAM and NAND requirements and 300‑mm recovery. However, near‑term challenges are material: Q4 and Q1 operating losses, a full‑year net loss (JPY 11.7 billion), a substantial depreciation burden (JPY 115.6 billion), structural decline in 200‑mm, elevated legacy inventory and pricing pressure on commodity wafers. Management expects demand recovery for leading edge later in the year, but immediate headwinds and inventory normalization keep the outlook cautious.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year Revenue and Operating Profit (In the Black on OP)
Full-year sales of JPY 409.6 billion and operating profit of JPY 1.3 billion (company stayed in the black on an operating-profit basis for fiscal 2025). EBITDA was JPY 112.4 billion, largely unchanged year-on-year.
Strong Operating Cash Flow and H2 Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow was a positive JPY 100.0 billion for the year and second-half free cash flow was positive (full-year free cash flow was negative JPY 11.4 billion after heavy investing earlier, but H2 cash generation was positive).
Significant CapEx Reduction Year-on-Year
Total CapEx for fiscal 2025 was JPY 79.9 billion, down JPY 135.0 billion versus JPY 214.9 billion in 2024 (a ~63% reduction YoY), reflecting a sharp pullback after prior large investments.
Q4 Sales Beat and Operating Profit Overshoot vs Forecast
Q4 sales were JPY 105.2 billion, up JPY 6.1 billion Q-on-Q and beating the company forecast by roughly JPY 5.0 billion. Management cited an operating profit overshoot of JPY 5.5 billion driven by JPY 2.1 billion cost reductions, JPY 1.7 billion favorable ForEx and JPY 1.2 billion delayed depreciation.
300‑millimeter Recovery and AI‑Driven Demand Outlook
300‑mm wafer market recovered from -11% in 2023 to +2% in 2024 and +9% in 2025; management expects continued recovery driven by AI-related demand (notably for DRAM and growing NAND requirements) and forecasts DRAM wafer demand rising from ~500–600k wafers/month today to ~1.5 million wafers/month over 3–4 years (an increase of ~1.0 million wafers/month).
Maintained Dividend Despite Losses
Company set a fiscal year-end dividend of JPY 10 per share, citing positive cash flow generation and significant retained earnings despite net losses.
Planned Capacity and Modernization to Capture Leading‑Edge Demand
Management expects new plant capacity (leading edge) to come online and fill quickly; older plants will be modernized to address demand shifts to leading-edge wafers, supporting anticipated logic growth from H2.
Corporate and Cultural Progress — Leadership Transition
Chairman announced a planned management handover after 14 years, highlighted strengthened R&D and technology standing (12 consecutive years of recognition from TSMC), improved workforce diversity and low turnover — all presented as structural improvements in organizational health.
Negative Updates
Q4 and Quarterly Profitability Pressure
Q4 operating profit was negative (operating loss reported at JPY 4.5 billion; operating loss widened Q-on-Q). Q4 ordinary loss was JPY 5.9 billion and profit attributable to owners was a net loss of JPY 10.8 billion.
Full-Year Net Loss and Decline in Retained Earnings
While operating profit was positive for the year, the company reported a full-year net loss attributable to owners of JPY 11.7 billion. Retained earnings declined by JPY 17.4 billion.
Depreciation Drag on Profitability
Depreciation rose JPY 36.7 billion year-on-year to JPY 115.6 billion for the full year, substantially reducing reported profits and contributing the majority of the year-on-year operating-profit deterioration (OP fell JPY 35.6 billion YoY).
Free Cash Flow and Cash Decline
Full-year free cash flow was negative JPY 11.4 billion (despite strong operating cash flow of JPY 100.0 billion) and cash and deposits fell JPY 20.4 billion year-on-year.
Structural Decline in 200‑millimeter Business
200‑mm wafers showed a structural decline: -21% in 2023, -13% in 2024 and -4% in 2025. Management does not expect a rebound and notes commodity 200‑mm spot prices are under pressure.
High Legacy Inventory and Customer Normalization Risk
Significant accumulated inventory at legacy nodes (logic), with purchase volumes outpacing wafer inputs. Management expects a material inventory normalization this year, which will pressure wafer demand for legacy nodes and depress near-term volumes/margins.
Short‑Term Guidance and Q1 Weakness
Q1 FY2026 guidance: sales JPY 100.0 billion and an operating loss of JPY 6.0 billion (ordinary loss JPY 10.0 billion; net loss attributable JPY 10.0 billion). Management expects Q1 deterioration driven by periodic maintenance, fewer operating days and one-off maintenance expenses.
Product Mix and Pricing Pressure
Shift toward polished wafers (PW) versus epitaxial (epi) reduced margins as epi has slightly higher marginal profitability. Additionally, spot prices for commodity 200‑mm wafers softened and competition (including lower-cost Chinese producers) limits pricing power.
Company Guidance
Guidance for Q1 FY2026: sales JPY100.0bn, operating loss JPY6.0bn, ordinary loss JPY10.0bn and net loss attributable JPY10.0bn, with a forex assumption of JPY155/USD; management expects the operating loss to widen by JPY1.5bn Q‑on‑Q due mainly to periodic plant maintenance and one‑off maintenance expenses, partly offset by a Q‑on‑Q decline in depreciation of JPY4.3bn. For context, FY2025 results were: sales JPY409.6bn, operating profit JPY1.3bn, ordinary loss JPY3.8bn and net loss JPY11.7bn; Q4 sales JPY105.2bn (up JPY6.1bn Q‑on‑Q and ~JPY5.0bn above guidance), Q4 operating loss JPY4.5bn, ordinary loss JPY5.9bn and net loss JPY10.8bn. Other key metrics: full‑year CapEx JPY79.9bn (vs JPY214.9bn in 2024), depreciation JPY115.6bn (up JPY36.7bn YoY; Q4 depreciation JPY35.6bn), EBITDA JPY112.4bn, operating cash flow +JPY100.0bn, investing cash flow −JPY111.4bn, free cash flow −JPY11.4bn, cash and deposits down JPY20.4bn, total assets JPY1,127.9bn, liabilities JPY480.2bn, retained earnings down JPY17.4bn, equity‑to‑asset ratio 51.3% and gross D/E 0.61x.

SUMCO Corporation Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Revenue recovered in FY2025, but profitability deteriorated sharply with a shift to net loss and negative operating profit trends versus prior periods. Balance sheet leverage remains manageable (moderate debt vs equity) but has drifted higher, reducing cushion in a downcycle. Operating cash flow is strong, yet free cash flow has been negative for several years and remained slightly negative in FY2025, indicating pressured cash quality despite investment pullbacks.
Income Statement
48
Neutral
Revenue rebounded in 2025 (annual) after declines in 2023–2024, but profitability deteriorated sharply: gross margin compressed materially and the company moved from a profit in 2024 to a net loss in 2025, with operating profit also turning negative. EBITDA margin remains relatively resilient, suggesting significant non-operating or non-cash impacts, but the headline earnings trend is clearly weaker and more volatile than prior years.
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
The balance sheet remains reasonably supported by a sizable equity base, with debt at a moderate level relative to equity in 2024–2025. However, leverage has risen versus 2021–2023 levels, and the shift to losses in 2025 reduces the margin of safety if the downcycle persists.
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
Operating cash flow stayed positive across periods and improved in 2025, but free cash flow swung deeply negative in 2023–2024 and remained slightly negative in 2025—pointing to heavy investment and/or elevated cash needs. Cash generation also did not consistently translate into surplus cash, and cash flow coverage of earnings looks mixed given the recent earnings decline.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue403.72B409.67B396.62B425.94B441.08B335.67B
Gross Profit71.86B49.91B72.73B108.25B143.35B80.12B
EBITDA108.27B112.44B114.09B165.43B172.00B104.33B
Net Income10.34B-11.75B19.88B63.88B70.20B41.12B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.16T1.13T1.17T1.07T892.55B764.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments80.91B75.30B95.67B156.35B259.31B224.67B
Total Debt364.52B353.86B353.95B224.45B141.38B141.07B
Total Liabilities505.89B480.18B515.45B437.56B301.07B241.98B
Stockholders Equity589.54B578.38B592.11B572.16B533.55B476.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00-10.99B-177.62B-160.57B54.01B36.92B
Operating Cash Flow0.00100.04B69.63B96.34B179.46B104.71B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-111.45B-247.88B-247.68B-126.35B-67.34B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-8.73B112.29B43.46B-23.15B99.10B

SUMCO Corporation Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1827.50
Price Trends
50DMA
1564.15
Positive
100DMA
1498.82
Positive
200DMA
1337.38
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
41.70
Negative
RSI
67.38
Neutral
STOCH
87.99
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:3436, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1827.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1638.48, above the 50-day MA of 1564.15, and above the 200-day MA of 1337.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 41.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:3436.

SUMCO Corporation Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
¥2.09T25.7621.73%2.29%11.29%11.38%
77
Outperform
¥710.21B32.3712.66%2.28%9.53%-11.17%
76
Outperform
$298.60B22.485.41%3.28%11.15%-19.39%
75
Outperform
¥8.19T62.3525.78%0.79%13.45%20.37%
73
Outperform
¥20.16T40.0927.73%1.79%16.74%16.03%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
50
Neutral
¥639.93B-54.391.14%0.66%-87.63%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:3436
SUMCO Corporation
1,827.50
725.72
65.87%
JP:7735
SCREEN Holdings Co
22,925.00
12,550.34
120.97%
JP:6146
Disco
75,500.00
37,520.74
98.79%
JP:6890
Ferrotec Holdings
6,350.00
4,108.06
183.24%
JP:8035
Tokyo Electron
44,010.00
22,177.63
101.58%
JP:7729
Tokyo Seimitsu Co., Ltd
17,300.00
9,488.00
121.45%

SUMCO Corporation Corporate Events

SUMCO Sets FY2025 Year-End Dividend at ¥10, Balancing Payout and Investment Needs
Feb 19, 2026

SUMCO Corporation has set its year-end dividend for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, at ¥10 per share, matching its earlier forecast and bringing the total annual dividend to ¥20 per share including the interim payout. The decision, approved by the board and funded from retained earnings, raises the year-end distribution from the previous year’s ¥6 while resulting in a marginally lower full-year dividend than fiscal 2024, reflecting a balance between rewarding shareholders and preserving resources for capital investment and future growth.

Management said the payout level was determined after assessing profit for the year, the business outlook, funding needs, free cash flow, and EBITDA, signaling a disciplined capital allocation policy amid ongoing semiconductor industry investment requirements. The move suggests SUMCO aims to maintain stable shareholder returns while retaining financial flexibility to support capacity and technology investments critical to its competitive position in the global wafer market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3436) stock is a Hold with a Yen1517.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUMCO Corporation stock, see the JP:3436 Stock Forecast page.

SUMCO to Cut Stake in Taiwan Unit, Reclassify It as Equity-Method Affiliate
Feb 19, 2026

SUMCO Corporation will reclassify its Taiwanese unit Formosa SUMCO Technology Corporation from a consolidated subsidiary to an equity-method affiliate by selling a 5.2% stake via the Taiwan securities market. The move will reduce the group’s voting rights from 43.2% to 38.0%, while maintaining a strong cooperative relationship and FST’s role as a major production and sales base for 300 mm and 200 mm wafers in Taiwan.

The change reflects SUMCO’s review of its capital relationship with joint venture partner Formosa Plastics Group and aligns FST’s status with its listed-company profile. The timing of completion and the resulting impact on SUMCO’s consolidated earnings for the year ending December 31, 2026 remain undetermined, leaving investors watching for subsequent disclosures on financial effects and governance implications.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3436) stock is a Hold with a Yen1517.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUMCO Corporation stock, see the JP:3436 Stock Forecast page.

SUMCO Promotes Veteran Executive Naruya Hirota to Representative Director
Feb 10, 2026

SUMCO Corporation has announced a leadership change aimed at reinforcing its management structure, elevating Executive Vice President Naruya Hirota to the role of Representative Director and Executive Vice President. The move, subject to approval at the March 27, 2026 shareholders’ meeting, places a long-serving technology and planning executive with deep internal experience into a top management position.

Hirota’s career spans from his early days at Mitsubishi Metal Corporation to progressively senior roles at SUMCO, including leadership of epitaxial engineering, AI promotion, and planning and construction divisions. His promotion signals a continuity-focused strategy that leverages his operational and technological background to support SUMCO’s long-term execution in the semiconductor materials market and potentially bolster confidence among customers and investors in its governance framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3436) stock is a Hold with a Yen1550.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUMCO Corporation stock, see the JP:3436 Stock Forecast page.

SUMCO Beats 2025 Forecasts as Cost Controls and Weak Yen Lift Results
Feb 10, 2026

SUMCO reported that its consolidated results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 exceeded previous forecasts, driven by higher net sales and a swing to positive operating profit. The company posted net sales of ¥409.7 billion versus a forecast of ¥404.4 billion, while operating profit improved from an expected loss of ¥4.2 billion to a profit of ¥1.3 billion.

Ordinary loss and loss attributable to owners of parent were also smaller than projected, helped by a weaker yen and cost improvements, although both metrics remained in negative territory year on year. The performance indicates that efficiency gains and favorable foreign exchange partly offset a downturn from the stronger 2024 earnings base, offering some relief to investors concerned about margin pressure in the semiconductor cycle.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3436) stock is a Hold with a Yen1550.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUMCO Corporation stock, see the JP:3436 Stock Forecast page.

SUMCO Posts FY2025 Results and Issues Cautious Outlook Amid Semiconductor Cycles
Feb 10, 2026

SUMCO Corporation released its financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, along with fourth-quarter figures and an outlook for the first quarter of 2026. The disclosure, aimed at shareholders and investors, outlines consolidated business results, operating profit analysis, balance sheet and cash-flow trends, and a near-term earnings forecast in the context of current semiconductor market conditions.

Management highlights that the projections are based on information and assumptions as of the announcement date, and stresses that actual performance may differ due to economic conditions, semiconductor market trends, and foreign exchange movements. The release underscores SUMCO’s sensitivity to global demand and pricing in the wafer market, signaling that stakeholders should closely watch macroeconomic developments and chip industry cycles when assessing the company’s future performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3436) stock is a Hold with a Yen1550.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUMCO Corporation stock, see the JP:3436 Stock Forecast page.

SUMCO Slides to FY2025 Loss Despite Higher Sales, Cuts Dividend and Flags Weak Start to 2026
Feb 10, 2026

SUMCO Corporation reported a modest 3.3% rise in net sales to ¥409.7 billion for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, but saw operating profit plunge 96.4% to ¥1.3 billion and swung to a net loss of ¥11.8 billion, reflecting a sharp squeeze on margins despite slightly higher revenues. Total assets and equity declined slightly, cash flow from operations improved to ¥100.0 billion with continued heavy investment outflows, the annual dividend was cut to ¥20 per share, and the company forecast a loss-making first quarter of 2026, underscoring ongoing pressure in the semiconductor cycle and signaling a cautious stance for shareholders and creditors.

Net assets slipped to ¥647.8 billion and the equity ratio edged up to 51.3%, indicating a still-solid balance sheet even as profitability deteriorated significantly year on year. With quarterly guidance pointing to further operating and ordinary losses, and dividend levels reduced despite the move into the red, SUMCO is prioritizing financial resilience and investment through the downturn, which may weigh on short-term returns but aims to preserve its competitive position when demand recovers.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3436) stock is a Hold with a Yen1550.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUMCO Corporation stock, see the JP:3436 Stock Forecast page.

SUMCO Reshapes Top Management, Appoints Jiro Ryuta as New President
Jan 5, 2026

SUMCO Corporation announced board-approved senior management changes aimed at reinforcing its management structure, effective March 27, 2026. Current Representative Director, Chairman & CEO Mayuki Hashimoto will become Director and Executive Advisor, while Representative Director and President Toshihiro Awa will retire from his role. Jiro Ryuta, presently Representative Director, Executive Vice President and General Manager of the Production and Technology Division and Kyushu Factory, will be promoted to Representative Director and President, bringing extensive international sales, factory management and group company leadership experience to the company’s top executive post.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:3436) stock is a Hold with a Yen1205.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SUMCO Corporation stock, see the JP:3436 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026