Japan Tobacco (2914) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥10.24T
• Dividend Yield: 3.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: 10.18%
• EPS Growth: -48.50%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 53,593
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Tobacco
• EPS (TTM): 108.05
• Shares Outstanding: 2,000,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,011,180
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,977,306
• PEG Ratio: -0.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥6,399.75
• Price Target Upside: 27.49% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 300.22
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥3.43T

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥6,075.00 ▲(21.02% Upside)

Japan Tobacco's strong earnings call performance and bullish technical indicators are the most significant factors driving the stock score. Despite a high P/E ratio, the company's robust financial health and positive momentum from recent acquisitions and product launches support a favorable outlook. However, attention is needed on reversing the negative cash flow trend and managing valuation risks.

Japan Tobacco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Japan Tobacco Inc., a tobacco company, manufactures and sells tobacco products, prescription drugs, and processed foods in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Domestic Tobacco, International Tobacco, Pharmaceutical, and Processed Food. It offers tobacco products, such as cigarettes, cigars, pipe tobacco, oral tobacco, waterpipe tobacco, kretek, and fine cut products under the Winston, Camel, MEVIUS, and LD brands. The company also provides reduced-risk products, including tobacco-infused vapor and heated tobacco products, E-Vapor products, etc. under the Ploom, Logic, Ploom TECH, Ploom TECH+, and Ploom S brands. In addition, it researches and develops, manufactures, and sells prescription drugs for the therapeutic areas, such as cardiovascular, renal and metabolism, immunology, and neuroscience. Further, the company provides staple food products, such as frozen noodles and okonomiyaki, and frozen and packed cooked rice; ambient processed foods; bakery products; and seasonings, including yeast extracts and oyster sauce. Japan Tobacco Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Japan Tobacco generates revenue primarily through the sale of its tobacco products, which include cigarettes and other nicotine products. The domestic tobacco segment contributes significantly to its earnings, driven by strong brand loyalty and market share in Japan. Internationally, JT benefits from its acquisitions and partnerships, expanding its footprint in various markets worldwide. The company also earns revenue from its reduced-risk products, capitalizing on the growing demand for alternatives to traditional smoking. Furthermore, JT has invested in research and development for innovative products, which helps to sustain its market position and attract consumers. Strategic partnerships and alliances with distributors and retailers also play a crucial role in enhancing its sales and distribution capabilities.

Japan Tobacco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Japan Tobacco demonstrates strong financial health with robust profitability and a solid balance sheet. While revenue and profit margins are favorable, the declining free cash flow growth poses a potential risk. Overall, the company maintains a stable financial position with effective leverage management, but should focus on reversing the negative cash flow trend to sustain long-term growth.

Income Statement

Japan Tobacco's income statement shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 55% and a net profit margin improving to 14.32% in TTM. Revenue growth is positive at 2.41% in TTM, indicating steady expansion. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting efficient operations. However, the slight decline in gross profit margin over the years suggests potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44 in TTM, indicating prudent leverage. Return on equity is healthy at 11.47%, showcasing effective use of equity. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a strong capital structure. However, the increase in total debt over time warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decrease in free cash flow growth at -3.67% in TTM, which could impact future investments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, suggesting decent cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating good cash conversion, but the negative growth trend is a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.31T	3.15T	2.84T	2.66T	2.32T	2.09T
Gross Profit	1.86T	1.64T	1.51T	1.45T	1.26T	1.09T
EBITDA	621.74B	454.17B	832.83B	829.17B	687.13B	622.71B
Net Income	193.97B	179.24B	482.29B	442.72B	338.49B	310.25B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.26T	8.37T	7.28T	6.55T	5.77T	5.38T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	865.18B	1.08T	1.04T	866.88B	721.73B	538.84B
Total Debt	1.63T	1.79T	1.20T	1.02T	979.16B	1.03T
Total Liabilities	4.12T	4.52T	3.37T	2.93T	2.89T	2.78T
Stockholders Equity	4.06T	3.77T	3.83T	3.54T	2.81T	2.52T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	412.88B	502.24B	472.15B	402.39B	512.56B	434.51B
Operating Cash Flow	537.26B	630.01B	567.01B	483.80B	598.91B	519.83B
Investing Cash Flow	-543.01B	-439.74B	-125.72B	-101.80B	-97.46B	2.34B
Financing Cash Flow	-58.31B	-94.94B	-270.91B	-306.20B	-353.18B	-294.39B

Japan Tobacco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5020.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2914, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5020 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5428.90, below the 50-day MA of 5086.76, and above the 200-day MA of 4431.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 208.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.50 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2914.

Japan Tobacco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2914	80 Outperform	¥10.24T	41.21	6.23%	3.48%	10.18%	-48.50%
2587	68 Neutral	$1.44T	16.37	6.97%	2.34%	1.26%	-13.39%
2501	65 Neutral	¥631.13B	88.98	3.63%	0.64%	0.25%	-58.68%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
2531	61 Neutral	¥282.15B	21.97	―	2.15%	5.66%	-25.08%
2502	60 Neutral	$2.57T	14.62	6.47%	3.03%	0.86%	0.55%
2503	60 Neutral	$1.76T	32.69	6.93%	2.96%	4.75%	-24.33%

Japan Tobacco Corporate Events

Japan Tobacco Reports Strong Nine-Month Financial Performance

Japan Tobacco Inc., a leading player in the global tobacco industry, is engaged in the manufacture and sale of tobacco products and processed foods. The company recently released its financial results for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, showcasing a robust performance.

Japan Tobacco Revises Year-End Dividend Guidance Upward

Japan Tobacco Inc. has announced an upward revision of its year-end dividend guidance for the fiscal year ending December 2025, increasing the dividend per share by 26 yen to 130 yen. This revision reflects the company’s improved financial performance and is expected to result in a total annual dividend per share of 234 yen, highlighting JT’s commitment to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2914) stock is a Buy with a Yen5700.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Tobacco stock, see the JP:2914 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Tobacco’s Q3 Results Highlight Challenges and Expansion Efforts

Japan Tobacco’s third-quarter results presentation highlights various challenges and risks, including health concerns, regulatory changes, and global competition, which could impact its operations and industry positioning. The company is focused on diversifying its business and expanding internationally, but faces uncertainties such as economic changes and foreign exchange fluctuations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2914) stock is a Buy with a Yen5700.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Tobacco stock, see the JP:2914 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Tobacco Reports Strong Financial Growth and Strategic Focus Shift

Japan Tobacco Inc. reported a substantial increase in its consolidated financial results for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, with a 13.2% rise in revenue and a 20.8% increase in operating profit compared to the previous year. The company has reclassified its Pharmaceutical Business as discontinued operations, focusing on its core tobacco business, which has shown strong performance and growth. The company has also revised its earnings forecasts and dividend payouts, reflecting its confidence in sustained growth and profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2914) stock is a Buy with a Yen5700.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Tobacco stock, see the JP:2914 Stock Forecast page.

JT Subsidiary to Issue Euro-Denominated Bonds for Refinancing

JT’s foreign subsidiary, JT International Financial Services B.V. (JTIFS), plans to issue new Euro-denominated subordinated bonds to refinance existing bonds. This move aims to strengthen JT’s financial foundation by offering bonds that blend characteristics of both equity and debt, potentially enhancing credit ratings. The issuance is targeted at international markets, excluding the U.S., and proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including the tender offer for existing bonds.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2914) stock is a Buy with a Yen5322.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Tobacco stock, see the JP:2914 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Tobacco to Receive USD 1 Billion Dividend from Subsidiary

Japan Tobacco Inc. announced that its subsidiary, JT International Holding B.V., will distribute a dividend of USD 1,000 million to JT. This dividend will be recorded as non-operating income in JT’s non-consolidated financial statements for 2025 but will not materially impact the company’s consolidated financial results.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2914) stock is a Buy with a Yen5322.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Tobacco stock, see the JP:2914 Stock Forecast page.