Japan Tobacco (2914) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.55T
• Dividend Yield: 4.19%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.36M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 44.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 9.82%
• EPS Growth: -61.24%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 53,593
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Tobacco
• EPS (TTM): 91.50
• Shares Outstanding: 2,000,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,335,050
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,359,666
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.72
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.13
• 1Y Price Target: $4,835.87
• Price Target Upside: 1.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥5,080.00 ▲(6.75% Upside)

Japan Tobacco's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, which highlight robust growth and strategic success. Technical indicators suggest potential short-term volatility due to overbought conditions, and valuation metrics indicate the stock might be overvalued, though the high dividend yield offers some compensation.

Japan Tobacco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Japan Tobacco Inc. (JT) is a leading international tobacco company headquartered in Tokyo, Japan. It operates in the Tobacco, Pharmaceutical, and Processed Food sectors. JT is renowned for its production and sale of cigarettes and other tobacco products, with a diverse portfolio that includes globally recognized brands such as Winston, Camel, and Mevius. In addition to its core tobacco business, JT is involved in the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on the development and commercialization of prescription drugs, as well as in the processed food sector, offering a range of food products including beverages and frozen foods.

How the Company Makes Money

Japan Tobacco Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of tobacco products, which account for the majority of its earnings. The company operates in both domestic and international markets, with its Global Tobacco Business being the most significant revenue contributor. This includes the manufacture and sale of cigarettes and other tobacco-related products. JT also derives income from its Pharmaceutical Business, where it engages in the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of prescription drugs. Additionally, the Processed Food Business contributes to the company's revenue through the sale of food and beverage products. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships, particularly in expanding its international tobacco market presence, also play a crucial role in enhancing JT's revenue streams.

Japan Tobacco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Japan Tobacco demonstrates sound financial health with strong profit margins and consistent revenue growth. The balance sheet reflects financial stability with moderate leverage. Despite a decline in free cash flow, cash generation remains robust.

Income Statement

Japan Tobacco's income statement shows a strong financial performance with a consistent increase in total revenue over the years, indicating a healthy growth trajectory. The gross profit margin for TTM is 54.92%, and the net profit margin is 14.32%, both reflecting efficient cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are 21.77% and 28.38% respectively, showing solid operational efficiency. The revenue growth rate from the previous annual report to TTM is 2.75%, which is moderate but steady.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates financial stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44, suggesting moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) for TTM is 12.25%, showcasing effective management of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 47.63%, reflecting a strong equity base. While the company maintains a substantial amount of cash and equivalents, its total assets have slightly declined from the previous period, warranting monitoring.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals robust cash generation capabilities with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.21. The free cash flow has decreased compared to the previous period, with a free cash flow growth rate of -14.64%. Despite this decline, the company's free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 0.92, indicating solid cash profitability.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.15T	2.84T	2.66T	2.32T	2.09T
Gross Profit	1.74T	1.62T	1.57T	1.37T	1.19T
EBITDA	837.14B	824.78B	829.17B	687.13B	622.71B
Net Income	179.24B	482.29B	442.72B	338.49B	310.25B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.37T	7.28T	6.55T	5.77T	5.38T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.20T	1.04T	904.56B	721.73B	557.67B
Total Debt	1.78T	1.14T	958.31B	918.62B	958.88B
Total Liabilities	4.52T	3.37T	2.93T	2.89T	2.78T
Stockholders Equity	3.77T	3.83T	3.54T	2.81T	2.52T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	502.24B	445.80B	384.39B	495.99B	411.21B
Operating Cash Flow	630.01B	567.01B	483.80B	598.91B	519.83B
Investing Cash Flow	-439.77B	-126.13B	-101.82B	-97.50B	5.35B
Financing Cash Flow	-94.91B	-270.50B	-306.18B	-353.14B	-297.40B

Japan Tobacco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4759.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2914, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4759 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4474.20, above the 50-day MA of 4336.02, and above the 200-day MA of 4081.90, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 140.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.24 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.50 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2914.

Japan Tobacco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2531	74 Outperform	¥265.55B	17.48		2.26%	8.25%	-6.60%
2502	73 Outperform	$3.01T	17.14	6.47%	2.72%	0.86%	0.55%
2587	73 Outperform	$1.48T	16.85	7.45%	2.42%	1.56%	-3.00%
2914	72 Outperform	$8.55T	44.07	4.85%	4.19%	9.82%	-61.24%
2503	66 Neutral	$1.74T	32.17	4.64%	3.43%	5.26%	-60.98%
2501	59 Neutral	$553.54B	161.89	1.95%	0.73%	0.01%	-82.82%
Sector *	50 Neutral	AU$2.10B	-1.45	-9.83%	4.37%	4.08%	-50.27%

Japan Tobacco Corporate Events

Japan Tobacco Raises 2025 Dividend Forecast Amid Strong Performance

Japan Tobacco Inc. has announced an increase in its dividend forecast for the year ending December 2025, raising the year-end dividend per share by 7 yen to 104 yen, resulting in a total annual dividend of 208 yen. This decision reflects the company’s improved financial performance in the first half of 2025 and aligns with its shareholder return policy, indicating a positive outlook for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2914) stock is a Buy with a Yen4550.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Tobacco stock, see the JP:2914 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Tobacco Reports Strong First Half 2025 Financial Results

Japan Tobacco Inc. reported a 10.5% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with operating profit rising by 10.9%. The company has revised its earnings and dividend forecasts upward, reflecting confidence in its financial performance and strategic growth plans. The adjustments indicate a positive outlook for stakeholders, as the company aims for sustainable growth with a focus on mid- to long-term profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2914) stock is a Buy with a Yen4550.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Tobacco stock, see the JP:2914 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Tobacco to Receive Dividend from Subsidiary

Japan Tobacco Inc. announced that its subsidiary, JT International Holding B.V., will distribute a dividend of approximately USD 560 million, which will be recorded as non-operating income in JT’s non-consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year 2025. However, this dividend will not materially impact JT’s consolidated financial results for the same period.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2914) stock is a Buy with a Yen4550.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Japan Tobacco stock, see the JP:2914 Stock Forecast page.

Japan Tobacco Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Performance

Japan Tobacco Inc. reported its consolidated financial results for the first quarter of 2025, showing a significant increase in revenue and operating profit compared to the same period last year. The company’s revenue rose by 11.7% to 826,981 million yen, and operating profit increased by 15.3% to 248,758 million yen. Despite a slight increase in profit attributable to owners of the parent company, comprehensive income for the period saw a substantial decline. The company maintains its forecast for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, with expected revenue growth of 3.9% and a significant increase in operating profit by 107.4%. These results and forecasts indicate a strong operational performance and strategic positioning in the industry, with a focus on sustainable growth.