Asahi Group Holdings (2502) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.87T
• Dividend Yield: 2.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.39M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: 0.86%
• EPS Growth: 0.55%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 28,173
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Beverages - Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 24.75
• Shares Outstanding: 1,521,010,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,233,890
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,394,756
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.10
• 1Y Price Target: $2,028.30
• Price Target Upside: 6.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥2,029.00 ▲(6.99% Upside)

Asahi Group Holdings has a solid financial foundation with strong profitability and a healthy balance sheet. However, the negative revenue growth and declining free cash flow are concerns. The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and while the valuation is reasonable, it does not indicate significant undervaluation. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events limits additional insights.

Positive Factors

Growth Strategy

Asahi aims to drive growth through premiumisation and operational efficiencies, focusing on sustaining price increases through a better product mix and expanding its global brands.

Revenue Growth

The company expects revenue growth driven by price mix improvements and premium category expansion, with Japan and Europe being key drivers of core operating profit growth.

Shareholder Returns

Focus on shareholder returns from a combination of progressive dividend growth and share buybacks, with a projected 6% increase in dividends for FY25.

Negative Factors

Currency Risk

A stronger-than-expected JPY is a key risk that could impact Asahi's performance.

Financial Performance

The company's profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline, excluding one-off gains and higher finance costs.

Market Conditions

Continued market softness in Oceania presents a risk to Asahi's business.

Asahi Group Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. is a leading Japanese beverage and food company with a diversified portfolio that spans across alcoholic beverages, soft drinks, and food products. The company's core products include beer, whiskey, spirits, and non-alcoholic beverages such as tea, coffee, and water. Asahi's flagship beer brand, Asahi Super Dry, is renowned globally. The company operates in various regions, including Japan, Europe, Oceania, and Southeast Asia, with a strong focus on innovation and quality to drive growth in domestic and international markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Asahi Group Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of its alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. The company's key revenue streams include its beer segment, which is led by the popular Asahi Super Dry brand, contributing significantly to its earnings. Additionally, Asahi's acquisition of various international beverage brands and breweries has expanded its market presence and revenue base globally. The company also earns income through its non-alcoholic beverage division, which includes a range of soft drinks and bottled water. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions, such as the purchase of Carlton & United Breweries in Australia, have bolstered Asahi's market position and revenue streams. The company continues to invest in marketing, brand development, and distribution networks to maintain and grow its market share in the competitive beverage industry.

Asahi Group Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Asahi Group Holdings demonstrates solid profitability and a stable financial position, with strong margins and a healthy balance sheet. However, the recent decline in revenue growth and free cash flow indicates potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum.

Income Statement

Asahi Group Holdings shows stable profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 37% and a net profit margin of approximately 6.4% in the TTM period. However, the revenue growth rate has turned negative at -1.13% in the TTM, indicating a potential concern in revenue generation. EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, reflecting efficient cost management.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.59 in the TTM, indicating a reduction in leverage compared to previous years. Return on equity is stable at around 7.15%, suggesting consistent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has decreased by 3.42% in the TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.20, indicating moderate cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.63, reflecting a decent conversion of net income into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.92T	2.94T	2.77T	2.51T	2.24T	2.03T
Gross Profit	1.09T	1.10T	998.93B	921.84B	852.88B	744.61B
EBITDA	424.98B	445.71B	404.54B	363.63B	350.38B	259.84B
Net Income	174.44B	192.08B	164.07B	151.56B	153.50B	92.83B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.43T	5.40T	5.29T	4.83T	4.55T	4.44T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	57.59B	101.04B	59.95B	37.44B	52.74B	48.46B
Total Debt	1.45T	1.28T	1.41T	1.50T	1.60T	1.82T
Total Liabilities	2.76T	2.73T	2.82T	2.77T	2.79T	2.92T
Stockholders Equity	2.67T	2.67T	2.46T	2.06T	1.76T	1.52T
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	190.46B	295.40B	237.72B	166.15B	245.18B	185.12B
Operating Cash Flow	301.72B	403.72B	347.55B	265.99B	337.81B	275.86B
Investing Cash Flow	-154.15B	-118.67B	-117.71B	-69.19B	-14.35B	-1.24T
Financing Cash Flow	-138.31B	-272.78B	-226.75B	-219.56B	-320.32B	956.76B

Asahi Group Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1896.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2502, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1896.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1909.30, below the 50-day MA of 1906.22, and above the 200-day MA of 1806.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for JP:2502.

Asahi Group Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2502	65 Neutral	$2.87T	16.34	6.47%	2.79%	0.86%	0.55%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.52B	14.79	-2.72%	3.09%	1.95%	-4.74%
KNBWF	―	$12.35B	33.87	4.64%	4.58%	―	―
MEJHF	―	$5.93B	18.39	6.40%	3.41%	―	―
SOOBF	―	$3.95B	155.47	1.95%	0.82%	―	―
STBFF	―	$9.89B	16.84	7.45%	3.98%	―	―
2531	74 Outperform	¥338.48B	22.28		1.77%	8.25%	-6.60%

Asahi Group Holdings Corporate Events

Asahi Group Announces Early Redemption of Hybrid Bonds

Asahi Group Holdings has announced the early redemption of its publicly offered hybrid bonds, initially issued in October 2020 to finance the acquisition of Anheuser-Busch InBev’s Australian business. The decision to redeem the bonds ahead of schedule is due to the company’s sufficient equity capital, eliminating the need for capital replenishment. This move reflects Asahi’s strategic approach to maintaining financial soundness while balancing growth investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2502) stock is a Buy with a Yen2500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asahi Group Holdings stock, see the JP:2502 Stock Forecast page.

Asahi Group Holdings Announces Share Buyback to Enhance Shareholder Value

Asahi Group Holdings has announced its decision to acquire up to 45 million of its own common shares, representing 3% of its outstanding shares, with a maximum acquisition cost of JPY 70 billion. This move aims to enhance shareholder returns and improve capital efficiency, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on optimizing its financial structure and providing value to its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2502) stock is a Buy with a Yen2500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asahi Group Holdings stock, see the JP:2502 Stock Forecast page.

Asahi Group Holdings Reports Decline in Semi-Annual Financial Results

Asahi Group Holdings reported a decline in its semi-annual financial results for 2025, with sales, operating profit, and profit attributable to owners of the parent all experiencing decreases compared to the previous year. This downturn in financial performance may impact the company’s market positioning and could have implications for its stakeholders, as it reflects challenges in maintaining growth amid changing market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2502) stock is a Buy with a Yen2500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Asahi Group Holdings stock, see the JP:2502 Stock Forecast page.