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Ichigo (JP:2337)
:2337

Ichigo (2337) AI Stock Analysis

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JP

Ichigo

(OTC:2337)

Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
Ichigo demonstrates commendable growth in revenue and net income, supported by effective cost management. However, concerns remain due to high leverage and negative cash flow. The technical indicators show positive momentum, and the stock's valuation appears attractive. The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with notable sector achievements and some operational challenges.

Ichigo (2337) vs. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)

Ichigo Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionIchigo Inc. is a Japanese sustainable infrastructure company primarily focused on real estate and clean energy. The company operates in sectors including real estate asset management, real estate value-add, and renewable energy. Ichigo is dedicated to promoting sustainability and environmental responsibility through its various projects, which include acquiring and revitalizing properties to enhance their long-term value, as well as developing and managing solar power plants across Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyIchigo Inc. generates revenue through a diversified model primarily consisting of real estate and renewable energy operations. In the real estate sector, Ichigo earns income by acquiring undervalued or underutilized properties, enhancing their value through strategic renovations, and either leasing them for rental income or selling them at a profit. The asset management division further contributes by managing real estate investment trusts (REITs) and private funds, earning management fees and performance incentives. In the renewable energy sector, Ichigo develops and operates solar power plants, selling the generated electricity to utility companies under long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs), thus securing a stable revenue stream. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions, real estate developers, and energy companies enhance Ichigo's operational capabilities and market reach.

Ichigo Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 09, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: 11.45%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 10, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with both significant achievements, particularly in the hotel and environmental sectors, and challenges in operating profit and security token sales. The company's effective hedging against interest rate increases and its commitment to sustainable operations were notable positives. However, declines in operating profit and challenges in the security token segment were concerns.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
REIT Expansion and Strong Hotel Performance
The company is expanding its REIT pipeline, particularly in hotels, which are performing very well. Sustainable real estate is up 16% year-on-year, driven by a powerful hotel market. Asset Management is up 12% year-on-year, and Clean Energy is up 5%.
Successful Hedging Against Interest Rate Increases
The company effectively hedged against interest rate increases, with half of its JPY 200 billion portfolio hedged. The increase in funding costs is not materially impacting the company due to these hedges.
Strong Hotel Economics and Growth
Hotel business has grown 90% year-on-year, driven by significant inbound activity from Asia, the U.S., and Europe. The hotel operator, OneFive Hotels, has seen a substantial increase in operating income.
Environmental Commitment and Achievements
The company achieved 100% renewable energy in its operations and reduced CO2 emissions significantly. It is climate positive with a CO2 reduction result of 4.4 times its CO2 emissions.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Operating Profit and Cash EPS
All-in operating profit is down 7% year-on-year, and cash EPS is down 9% due to stock buybacks.
Flow Earnings and Clean Energy Challenges
Flow earnings are down, impacting overall earnings despite forecasted increases. Clean Energy is down on an operating profit basis but up on a cash earnings basis.
Challenges in Security Token Sales
The company had to push out some residence token activity, resulting in expected lower-than-forecasted owner performance for the year.
Office REIT Valuation Challenges
The office REIT's share price remains weak despite being an active acquirer and seller of assets. The public markets have not recognized the increase in office rental values due to rising replacement costs.
Company Guidance
In the Q3 2025 earnings call for Ichigo (2337.T), Scott Callon reported a 7% year-on-year decline in all-in operating profit, with cash and net income down 12% and cash EPS down 9%, attributed partially to stock buybacks. Despite these declines, stock earnings increased by 13% year-on-year, and it is anticipated that there will be a strong Q4 recovery. The company highlighted a robust performance in its hotel and office REIT pipeline, with hotels accounting for 25% of assets and showing significant growth driven by a 32% year-on-year increase. Asset Management and Clean Energy segments were up 12% and 5% respectively. Ichigo is actively engaged in a share buyback, having executed about half of a 3.9% share buyback program by the end of December. The company anticipates record cash earnings on stock earnings growth, forecasting a range of JPY 450 billion to JPY 500 billion in assets under management for next year, driven by real estate token sales and private REIT activities. The call also touched on the impact of rising replacement costs, which are expected to increase asset values and allow for rental growth, a factor not currently reflected in the public REIT market.

Ichigo Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ichigo shows strong revenue and net income growth, with improved profit margins. However, high leverage and negative cash flow pose financial stability challenges.
Income Statement
80
Positive
The income statement reflects strong growth with a revenue increase of 1.71% from the previous year and a significant rise in net income by 25.40%. The gross profit margin improved from 25.22% to 31.02%, indicating better cost management. Net profit margin increased from 14.63% to 18.05%, suggesting enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins show room for improvement.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet presents a stable equity base with an equity ratio of 27.47%. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is high at 2.35, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. Return on equity has improved to 13.60%, reflecting better utilization of equity. Nonetheless, the high leverage remains a concern.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow statement highlights challenges with negative free cash flow and negative operating cash flow, indicating potential liquidity issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, and operating cash flow has not been sufficient to cover net income, suggesting operational inefficiencies.
Breakdown
Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
84.16B82.75B68.09B56.93B61.37B
Gross Profit
26.11B20.87B19.42B16.18B15.59B
EBIT
17.63B12.96B12.49B10.02B9.67B
EBITDA
22.58B17.92B18.01B15.81B14.59B
Net Income Common Stockholders
15.19B12.11B9.41B6.47B5.03B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
42.69B46.92B40.58B49.01B51.42B
Total Assets
406.71B367.01B338.62B337.89B347.08B
Total Debt
262.11B232.79B209.96B209.40B220.00B
Net Debt
219.42B185.88B169.42B162.94B169.17B
Total Liabilities
284.00B250.74B224.23B225.70B236.82B
Stockholders Equity
111.71B105.51B103.84B101.78B100.06B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-33.50B-16.89B-10.29B1.95B-2.45B
Operating Cash Flow
-28.45B-8.58B254.00M7.94B15.46B
Investing Cash Flow
5.36B-2.52B2.63B6.50B-15.63B
Financing Cash Flow
19.57B17.79B-6.58B-15.36B10.17B

Ichigo Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price400.00
Price Trends
50DMA
379.68
Positive
100DMA
370.78
Positive
200DMA
368.27
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.95
Negative
RSI
67.82
Neutral
STOCH
81.06
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2337, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 400 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 382.65, above the 50-day MA of 379.68, and above the 200-day MA of 368.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.06 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2337.

Ichigo Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
¥184.19B11.67
2.41%8.04%167.85%
76
Outperform
¥67.89B7.28
4.32%18.03%24.11%
74
Outperform
¥181.46B19.2521.92%2.38%2.22%11.89%
73
Outperform
¥175.06B11.4813.76%2.50%1.60%29.82%
67
Neutral
¥72.83B17.32
2.76%1.42%15.98%
67
Neutral
€193.16B10.8124.21%1.64%2.17%-57.25%
61
Neutral
$2.83B10.890.41%9.34%5.96%-21.31%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JP:2337
Ichigo
405.00
31.52
8.44%
JP:1766
Token Corporation
13,960.00
1,941.38
16.15%
JP:8818
Keihanshin Building Co., Ltd.
1,580.00
-88.03
-5.28%
JP:8877
ESLEAD CORPORATION
4,500.00
227.48
5.32%
JP:8848
Leopalace21
597.00
109.15
22.37%
JP:8919
KATITAS CO
2,382.00
767.66
47.55%

Ichigo Corporate Events

Ichigo Inc. Faces Renewable Energy Production Challenges in May 2025
Jun 4, 2025

Ichigo Inc. reported a 9% shortfall in its May 2025 solar and wind power generation compared to forecasts, primarily due to adverse weather conditions and increased suspension of renewable energy purchases in certain regions. This operational challenge highlights the volatility in renewable energy production and its potential impact on Ichigo’s market performance and stakeholder interests.

Ichigo Inc. Maintains Independence and Protects Minority Shareholders
May 28, 2025

Ichigo Inc. announced that its controlling shareholder, Ichigo Trust Pte. Ltd., holds 52.84% of its voting rights, yet maintains an independent decision-making process. The company ensures the protection of minority shareholders by implementing rigorous compliance and audit procedures in any transactions involving Ichigo Trust Pte. Ltd.

Ichigo Inc. Strengthens Board Governance with Annual Evaluation
May 20, 2025

Ichigo Inc. has conducted its annual evaluation of the Board of Directors to ensure effective governance and alignment with Japan’s Corporate Governance Code. The evaluation confirmed the Board’s effective decision-making and oversight capabilities, and Ichigo plans to continue these evaluations to improve corporate governance and shareholder communication.

Ichigo Inc. Reports Growth in Renewable Energy Generation for April 2025
May 7, 2025

Ichigo Inc. reported a significant increase in its solar and wind power generation for April 2025, reaching 23,565,014 kWh, which aligns with their forecast. This growth in power generation also led to a substantial CO2 reduction, reflecting the company’s commitment to sustainability and enhancing its position in the renewable energy market.

Ichigo Inc. Strengthens Board with Independent Directors
Apr 18, 2025

Ichigo Inc. has announced its director candidates for the upcoming shareholder meeting, emphasizing strong independent board oversight. The majority of the board will consist of independent directors, aligning with Japan’s Corporate Governance Code, which is expected to enhance corporate governance and stakeholder confidence.

Ichigo Inc. Announces Dividend Increase Amid Record Earnings
Apr 14, 2025

Ichigo Inc. has announced an increase in its dividend to JPY 10.5 per share, reflecting a 16.7% rise from the previous fiscal year, subject to shareholder approval. This decision aligns with Ichigo’s commitment to a progressive dividend policy and its updated KPI under the Ichigo 2030 vision, which emphasizes dividend stability and growth. The company achieved a record high in stock earnings, with a significant increase in net income, reinforcing its strategy to enhance shareholder value. Ichigo’s governance structure, which includes a majority of independent directors, supports its shareholder-oriented approach, and the company seeks shareholder input on key decisions to strengthen its governance.

Ichigo Reports 12% Shortfall in March Power Generation
Apr 3, 2025

Ichigo Inc. reported a 12% shortfall in solar and wind power generation for March 2025, attributed to adverse weather conditions and a suspension of renewable energy purchases. This decrease in power generation impacts the company’s operational efficiency and may affect its market positioning in the renewable energy sector.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.