CALBEE (2229) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥398.86B
• Dividend Yield: 1.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 400.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.33
• Revenue Growth: 5.82%
• EPS Growth: -13.40%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 4,939
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 133,929,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 399,620
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 400,303
• PEG Ratio: 3.38
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.08
• P/FCF Ratio: 31.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥2,819.25
• Price Target Upside: -4.88% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 140.75
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥338.38B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥3,241.00 ▲(9.35% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial strength (steady profitability and low leverage), partially offset by recent margin compression and uneven cash-flow conversion. Technical signals are mixed with weaker near-term price action despite longer-term support, and valuation looks fair-to-full with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet and low leverage

Calbee's low debt-to-equity and stable equity base provide durable financial flexibility. Low leverage supports resilience to demand shocks, funds targeted reinvestment or marketing, and preserves capacity for dividends or opportunistic M&A without jeopardizing core operations.

Healthy gross margins and steady profitability

Sustained gross margins near the low-30s reflect structural product economics and brand pricing power in packaged snacks. Consistent profitability supports cash generation and competitive reinvestment in distribution and marketing, underpinning medium-term earnings stability.

Improving cash-generation trend (TTM FCF growth)

Recent improvement in TTM free cash flow signals better conversion of profits to cash, enhancing capacity to fund capex, working-capital needs, and shareholder returns. An improving cash trend reduces refinancing risk and supports execution of strategic plans over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Recent margin compression in TTM

The meaningful drop in net and operating margins erodes earnings power and indicates pressure from costs or weaker pricing. If persistent, margin compression will reduce internally generated funds for reinvestment and dividends, making multi-quarter recovery necessary to restore prior profitability.

Inconsistent free cash flow conversion history

Volatile FCF and past negative free cash flow years highlight inconsistent conversion of earnings to cash. This constrains reliable funding for dividends, buybacks or M&A, and signals working-capital sensitivity that can impair operational flexibility across business cycles.

Increase in total debt reduces prior flexibility

Rising absolute debt, even from low leverage, shrinks the conservative buffer and could raise interest costs or restrict strategic moves if the trend persists. Continued debt increases would weaken a key structural strength that previously supported resilience and optionality.

CALBEE Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Calbee, Inc. engages in the production and sale of snacks and other food products in Japan, North America, Greater China, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, and internationally. It offers potato-based, flour-based, corn-and bean-based, and other snacks, as well as wheat, cereals, and granola. The company markets its products under the Potato Chips, Jagarico, Jaga Pokkuru, Kappa Ebisen, Seabrook, Thin Potato, Sapporo Potato, Sayaendo, Jagabee, and the Frugra brands. It sells its products through e-commerce and retail stores. Calbee, Inc. was incorporated in 1949 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Calbee makes money primarily through the production and sale of its snack food products, with a significant portion of revenue derived from its popular potato chips and other snack varieties. The company operates on a revenue model that includes both direct sales to retailers and distributors and indirect sales through partnerships with various global retailers. Key revenue streams include domestic sales in Japan, which remain a substantial part of its business, and international sales, which contribute to its global expansion strategy. Calbee's strategic partnerships with major retail chains, as well as its continuous innovation in product offerings, play a crucial role in driving its earnings. Additionally, Calbee invests in marketing and brand positioning to maintain a strong presence in the competitive snack food market, further enhancing its revenue-generating capabilities.

CALBEE Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid overall: steady profitability and healthy gross margins, plus a conservatively positioned balance sheet with low leverage. Offsetting this is meaningful recent margin compression in the TTM period and a mixed free-cash-flow consistency history despite recent improvement.

Income Statement

CALBEE shows solid, steady profitability with healthy gross margins (~32–34%) and positive operating margins, consistent with a defensive packaged-food profile. Revenue has generally grown over the past several years, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up versus the prior annual period; however, TTM profitability has softened meaningfully versus FY2025, with net margin dropping to ~4.8% from ~6.5% and operating margin also lower. Overall: good business quality and resilience, but recent margin compression is the key watch item.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with moderate leverage: debt-to-equity remains low (about 0.18 in FY2025 and ~0.25 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)). Equity has been stable-to-growing over time, and returns on equity are respectable for the sector (roughly 8–10% range recently). A notable caution is the increase in total debt in the most recent period versus prior years, which reduces some of the prior balance-sheet flexibility, though leverage is still not high.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, with operating cash flow remaining solid in both FY2025 and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and TTM free cash flow improving versus prior periods with strong growth. The main weakness is conversion: free cash flow is a modest share of net income in the most recent periods (about 28–35%), and the company had negative free cash flow in FY2024 and FY2023, indicating higher reinvestment needs or working-capital volatility. Overall: improving trend recently, but cash flow consistency is not yet best-in-class.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	335.53B	322.56B	303.03B	279.31B	245.42B	266.75B
Gross Profit	108.36B	109.81B	101.96B	90.20B	83.95B	117.81B
EBITDA	40.90B	44.05B	43.18B	34.83B	37.85B	37.29B
Net Income	16.14B	20.87B	19.89B	14.77B	18.05B	17.68B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	328.17B	319.17B	292.16B	239.09B	236.60B	238.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	34.90B	56.76B	44.30B	32.17B	59.00B	73.47B
Total Debt	52.09B	36.55B	27.04B	1.85B	1.98B	6.56B
Total Liabilities	111.59B	104.10B	91.07B	56.41B	53.14B	56.24B
Stockholders Equity	205.34B	205.18B	191.75B	174.11B	175.38B	175.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.87B	10.99B	-6.84B	-7.41B	8.81B	19.11B
Operating Cash Flow	30.89B	39.10B	24.35B	19.31B	22.33B	30.45B
Investing Cash Flow	-18.70B	-28.60B	-35.31B	-20.33B	3.64B	-32.07B
Financing Cash Flow	-10.53B	2.54B	16.85B	-20.00B	-25.17B	-7.63B

CALBEE Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2964.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2229, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2964 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3050.03, below the 50-day MA of 3029.31, and above the 200-day MA of 2875.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 10.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2229.

CALBEE Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2220	74 Outperform	¥91.61B	3.42	―	1.47%	20.44%	1199.18%
2212	73 Outperform	¥710.86B	16.97	9.18%	1.13%	3.53%	4.88%
2229	66 Neutral	¥398.86B	23.84	8.27%	1.95%	5.82%	-13.40%
2206	65 Neutral	¥393.51B	76.68	2.66%	1.64%	8.40%	-23.50%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
2269	62 Neutral	¥1.11T	23.73	5.97%	2.96%	2.79%	-6.46%
2226	61 Neutral	¥49.93B	21.24	―	1.19%	3.71%	-4.44%