Yamazaki Baking Co (2212) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥710.86B
• Dividend Yield: 1.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 407.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: 3.53%
• EPS Growth: 4.88%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 33,393
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 56.52
• Shares Outstanding: 220,282,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 443,070
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 407,503
• PEG Ratio: 1.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: ¥3,700.00
• Price Target Upside: 7.62% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 219.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ¥1.35T

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: ¥3,833.00 ▲(11.49% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (higher revenue/earnings and manageable leverage), tempered by thin margins and inconsistent free cash flow conversion. Technicals add support due to a positive moving-average trend, while valuation is neutral-to-slightly positive with a mid-range P/E and modest yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue & Profit Scale

Yamazaki shows multi-year expansion in top-line and net income, indicating stronger market penetration and scale benefits. Larger revenue and profit base supports investments in distribution, product development, and cost absorption, improving structural resilience versus smaller competitors.

Healthy Balance Sheet

Moderate leverage and a growing equity base give Yamazaki financial flexibility to fund capex, acquisitions, or buffer cycles. Manageable debt levels relative to assets reduce refinancing risk and support consistent operations in a capital-intensive consumer foods distribution environment.

Operating Cash Generation

Rising operating cash flow provides dependable internal funding for working capital, reinvestment, and debt servicing. Strong OCF underpins sustainable operations and strategic investment capacity, even if free cash flow timing varies by year.

Negative Factors

Thin Profit Margins

Margins remain narrow, leaving earnings sensitive to raw-material inflation, wage pressure, or pricing competition. Limited margin buffer constrains ability to absorb cost shocks, restricts discretionary spend, and weakens leverage of revenue growth into higher returns.

Volatile Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow conversion is inconsistent year-to-year, complicating capital allocation and dividend or buyback predictability. Variable FCF raises reliance on careful working-capital and capex planning and can limit the pace of shareholder-friendly actions despite solid operating cash.

Modest Return on Equity

ROE remains modest relative to many peers, indicating limited capital efficiency despite scale gains. Combined with thin margins, this constrains the firm's ability to generate high long-term shareholder returns unless profitability or asset turnover materially improves.

Yamazaki Baking Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells baked goods in Japan. Its products include loaf bread, sweet buns, donuts, hard rolls, and Danish pastries; Japanese, Western style, and rice-derived and based confectionery; processed bread and noodles, prepared rice, and side dishes; and chocolates, candies, stevia-based and other sweeteners, snack foods, and soup and soup stocks, as well as jams, marmalades, jelly and yokan products, and ready-to-eat curries in retort pouches. The company also manufactures biscuits, cookies, crackers, and frozen bread dough; provides coffee and juice under the Yamazaki brand; creams, curry fillings, stuffing for Chinese filled buns, croquettes, meat patties, and mayonnaise products; and prepared mixes for bread, tempura, and fried chicken, as well as sells products procured from other companies. In addition, it is involved in the manufacture and sale of cleaning and disinfecting agents for food production equipment; operation of bread and pastry shops, restaurants, convenience stores, and supermarkets; provision of retail bakery and cafe management, in-store bakery management, general truck transport and freight forwarding, and insurance services; and design of equipment for manufacturing bread and confectionery, installation of production facilities, and other services. Further, the company offers logistics management services; and manufactures and sells stevia-based and other sweeteners. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,389 stores. Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1948 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Yamazaki Baking Co. generates revenue through multiple avenues, primarily by selling its bakery products to retailers, wholesalers, and food service providers. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales of its branded products in convenience stores, supermarkets, and restaurants. Additionally, Yamazaki engages in partnerships with various food service companies, which helps expand its market reach and enhance its distribution networks. The company also benefits from economies of scale due to its large production capacity and efficient logistics operations, contributing to its profitability. Seasonal promotions and the introduction of new products further boost sales and attract a broader customer base.

Yamazaki Baking Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year improvement in scale and profitability (revenue 1.01T to 1.31T; net income 7.0B to 40.9B; EBIT 17.4B to 61.1B) with moderate leverage (debt/equity ~0.25). Main risks are thin margins (2024 net margin ~2.9%, EBIT margin ~4.5%) and uneven free cash flow conversion/volatility.

Income Statement

Profitability and scale improved meaningfully over the period: revenue rose from 1.01T (2020) to 1.31T (2025), and net income climbed from 7.0B to 40.9B. Operating performance also strengthened, with EBIT increasing from 17.4B (2020) to 61.1B (2025). The key weakness is that margins remain relatively thin for the business (e.g., 2024 net margin ~2.9% and EBIT margin ~4.5%), leaving results somewhat sensitive to cost inflation and execution.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks reasonably sound with moderate leverage: debt to equity was ~0.25 in 2024 and equity expanded from 330.5B (2020) to 459.9B (2025). Total debt increased to 103.7B (2025) from 71.7B (2020), but it remains manageable relative to the growing equity base and asset base (assets 931.9B in 2025). Return on equity improved to ~8.7% in 2024 from low-single-digits earlier in the period, though it is still not high, reflecting modest profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and generally improving: operating cash flow rose from 47.2B (2020) to 78.9B (2025), supporting ongoing reinvestment and debt capacity. However, free cash flow is more volatile (e.g., down ~7% in 2024) and conversion of earnings into free cash flow is not consistently strong (free cash flow was ~42% of net income in 2024 and ~45% in 2023). Overall, the company produces dependable operating cash, but free cash flow variability is the main watch item.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.28T	1.31T	1.24T	1.18T	1.08T	1.05T
Gross Profit	414.46B	428.40B	405.25B	379.05B	343.61B	367.86B
EBITDA	101.84B	106.44B	99.99B	88.53B	65.05B	61.36B
Net Income	37.43B	40.89B	36.02B	30.17B	12.37B	10.38B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	864.33B	931.88B	865.11B	802.03B	758.03B	757.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	172.52B	163.82B	152.44B	134.94B	125.18B	138.14B
Total Debt	105.65B	103.66B	101.05B	80.13B	86.21B	97.86B
Total Liabilities	394.52B	421.05B	404.62B	355.90B	350.14B	375.14B
Stockholders Equity	421.54B	459.88B	412.15B	400.14B	363.74B	342.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	28.08B	30.89B	33.23B	12.21B	18.37B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	78.87B	73.97B	73.69B	52.77B	57.07B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-55.86B	-43.49B	-45.66B	-41.98B	-37.79B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-14.13B	-15.04B	-18.83B	-26.70B	2.07B

Yamazaki Baking Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3438.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2212, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3438 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3445.80, above the 50-day MA of 3389.07, and above the 200-day MA of 3249.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 19.55 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2212.

Yamazaki Baking Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2212	73 Outperform	¥710.86B	16.97	9.18%	1.13%	3.53%	4.88%
2001	70 Outperform	¥236.93B	11.24	7.71%	2.77%	1.83%	-39.02%
2002	70 Outperform	¥619.59B	23.34	―	3.15%	-0.88%	-25.64%
2206	65 Neutral	¥393.51B	76.68	2.66%	1.64%	8.40%	-23.50%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
2269	62 Neutral	¥1.11T	23.73	5.97%	2.96%	2.79%	-6.46%
2215	53 Neutral	¥4.32B	13.50	―	―	2.99%	-87.21%

Yamazaki Baking Co Corporate Events

Yamazaki Baking Lifts Sales and Profits on Broad-Based Food Segment Growth

Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. reported consolidated net sales of ¥1,311.4 billion for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, up 5.4% from the previous year, driven primarily by its food business, which accounted for 92.7% of total sales. Profitability improved across the board, with operating profit rising 17.9% to ¥61.1 billion, ordinary profit up 14.2% to ¥64.3 billion, and profit attributable to owners of parent increasing 13.5% to ¥40.9 billion.

Growth was broad-based across key categories, including bread, sweet buns, Japanese- and Western-style confectionery, processed bread and prepared rice dishes, and biscuits and crackers, while the retail and other businesses also posted modest sales and profit gains. The strong performance in the core food segment and improved operating margins underscore a solid expansion in Yamazaki Baking’s earnings power, reinforcing its competitive position in Japan’s bakery and confectionery market and signaling a positive trend for stakeholders relying on its stable growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2212) stock is a Buy with a Yen4200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamazaki Baking Co stock, see the JP:2212 Stock Forecast page.

Yamazaki Baking Lifts Profits and Dividend on Strong 2025 Results

Yamazaki Baking Co. reported solid results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with net sales rising 5.4% to ¥1.31 trillion and operating profit climbing 17.9% to ¥61.1 billion, while profit attributable to owners of parent increased 13.5% to ¥40.9 billion. Profitability and financial strength improved, as return on equity edged up, the equity ratio rose to 49.3%, cash and cash equivalents expanded to ¥155.4 billion, and the company boosted its annual dividend from ¥45 to ¥60 per share, signaling confidence in its earnings base.

The company’s 2026 forecast calls for more moderate growth, with full‑year net sales projected to increase 2.0% and operating profit 4.7%, alongside a further rise in profit attributable to owners of parent to ¥42.5 billion. This guidance, coupled with a maintained ¥60 year‑end dividend forecast, suggests management expects continued stable demand and margin resilience, offering shareholders a steadier, income‑oriented return profile within a maturing domestic market.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2212) stock is a Buy with a Yen4200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamazaki Baking Co stock, see the JP:2212 Stock Forecast page.

Yamazaki Baking Lifts Year-End Dividend Forecast to 60 Yen per Share

Yamazaki Baking Co., Ltd. has revised its dividend forecast for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, raising the planned year-end dividend from 50 yen to 60 yen per share. The decision, approved by the board on January 30, 2026, reflects consideration of the company’s performance trends and financial conditions, as well as an intent to reward ongoing shareholder support, resulting in a higher payout than both the previous forecast and the 45 yen dividend paid for the prior fiscal year; the revised year-end dividend will be formally proposed at the annual general meeting of shareholders scheduled for March 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (JP:2212) stock is a Buy with a Yen4200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Yamazaki Baking Co stock, see the JP:2212 Stock Forecast page.