First Baking Co., Ltd. (2215) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥4.32B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 22.40K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: 2.99%
• EPS Growth: -87.21%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 868
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 31.45
• Shares Outstanding: 6,929,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 30,720
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 22,400
• PEG Ratio: -0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.15
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥626.00 ▲(1.79% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is primarily constrained by weak and volatile cash flow (including deeply negative 2025 free cash flow) and inconsistent profitability, despite steady revenue growth. A conservative, debt-free balance sheet provides an important offset, while technical signals are neutral and valuation is moderately supportive (P/E ~13.35).

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Zero total debt in 2025 and rising equity materially reduce default and interest-rate risk, giving management financial flexibility. A conservative capital structure supports durable operations, funds selective investments internally, and better absorbs industry cyclicality over the medium term.

Steady revenue growth

Multi-year top-line growth demonstrates resilient demand for the company's packaged-food products. Sustained revenue expansion supports scale economies, predictable production planning and distributor relationships, strengthening the business model's durability if margins and cash conversion improve.

Stable gross margins

Consistent mid-20% gross margins indicate durable unit economics in core products, suggesting intrinsic pricing power or stable input cost pass-through. If operating costs and working-capital drivers are managed, this margin base can support sustainable operating profitability over time.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation

A collapse in operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow signals a persistent earnings-to-cash conversion problem. This constrains reinvestment, may force external financing or asset sales, and raises the risk that reported profits don't translate into internally available funding.

Volatile and compressed profitability

Sharp margin compression and very negative EPS growth indicate the company struggles to sustain operating leverage and convert revenue into reliable earnings. This amplifies forecast risk and undermines confidence in long-term profit generation absent structural cost or pricing fixes.

Capital-structure inconsistency

A pronounced shift from meaningful leverage to zero debt suggests a transitionary funding strategy or one-off balance-sheet moves. Such swings complicate assessment of long-term funding policy, may reflect reactive financing, and could mask underlying operational or working-capital stress.

First Baking Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Baking Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells food products in Japan. It offers bread products and other confectionery products. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Kodaira, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

First Baking Co., Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its baked goods across various channels. The company has established key revenue streams from direct sales to supermarkets, convenience stores, and foodservice establishments. Additionally, First Baking Co. has strategically partnered with local and international distributors to expand its market reach, increasing overall sales volume. The company's revenue model benefits from seasonal promotions and product launches that attract consumer interest and drive sales. Furthermore, First Baking Co. invests in brand marketing and advertising to enhance brand visibility, which contributes to customer loyalty and repeat purchases.

First Baking Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a major positive (very low leverage and zero debt in 2025), but overall financial quality is held back by volatile profitability and weak cash conversion. Operating cash flow fell sharply in 2025 and free cash flow turned deeply negative, which is a material risk despite steady revenue growth.

Income Statement

Revenue has been steadily rising (about ¥24.0bn in 2020 to ¥29.0bn in 2025), showing resilient top-line demand. However, profitability has been volatile: losses in 2020–2022 were followed by a rebound in 2023–2024, then a sharp step-down in 2025 (net margin fell to ~1.1% from ~7.6% in 2024; operating margin also compressed materially). Gross margin has been relatively stable in the mid‑20% range, but the company’s ability to translate that into consistent bottom-line profit remains a key weakness.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative with very low leverage, culminating in zero total debt in 2025 and only minimal debt in 2024. Equity has grown over time (roughly ¥8.6bn in 2025 vs. ¥6.2bn in 2023), supporting balance-sheet stability. The main watch item is the historical swing from meaningfully leveraged years (debt-to-equity >0.6 in 2021–2023) to debt-free today—positive if sustainable, but it suggests capital structure has been in transition.

Cash Flow

Cash generation quality is the biggest concern. While operating cash flow was solid in some years (e.g., 2024), it weakened sharply in 2025 (only ~¥0.05bn) and has shown inconsistency (including negative operating cash flow in 2021). Free cash flow is also volatile and turned deeply negative in 2025 (about -¥1.37bn), indicating either heavy investment or working-capital pressure; this is a notable mismatch versus reported profits and raises questions about earnings-to-cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	27.63B	28.96B	27.18B	26.44B	24.55B	23.86B
Gross Profit	7.18B	7.43B	7.46B	7.04B	5.86B	6.26B
EBITDA	812.25M	1.01B	2.37B	1.06B	-503.00M	-70.00M
Net Income	261.00M	320.00M	2.06B	474.00M	-1.15B	-738.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.95B	16.34B	15.78B	17.73B	17.08B	18.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.47B	3.00B	3.96B	3.06B	2.17B	1.45B
Total Debt	5.00M	0.00	32.00M	3.89B	3.58B	4.44B
Total Liabilities	6.82B	7.78B	7.73B	11.52B	11.23B	10.52B
Stockholders Equity	8.13B	8.55B	8.05B	6.21B	5.84B	7.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-1.37B	114.00M	178.00M	142.00M	-530.00M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	49.00M	952.00M	494.00M	473.00M	-10.00M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.91B	3.90B	-304.00M	788.00M	-646.00M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	415.00M	-3.84B	698.00M	-543.00M	88.00M

First Baking Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 615.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2215, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 615 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 619.95, below the 50-day MA of 620.92, and above the 200-day MA of 590.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2215.

First Baking Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
3392	78 Outperform	¥14.40B	9.32	―	1.43%	10.77%	131.68%
2212	73 Outperform	¥710.86B	16.97	9.18%	1.13%	3.53%	4.88%
2936	70 Outperform	¥19.49B	45.23	―	―	7.07%	―
2204	67 Neutral	¥19.79B	22.37	―	2.12%	-1.97%	7.25%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
2215	53 Neutral	¥4.32B	13.50	―	―	2.99%	-87.21%
2224	52 Neutral	¥13.90B	188.09	―	0.20%	-5.06%	-122.27%