Nakamuraya Co., Ltd. (2204) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ¥19.73B
• Dividend Yield: 2.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.78K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.32
• Revenue Growth: -1.97%
• EPS Growth: 7.25%
• Country: JP
• Employees: 822
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 248.56
• Shares Outstanding: 5,976,205
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,480
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,780
• PEG Ratio: 0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.49
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: ¥3,364.00 ▲(9.40% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/09/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/09/26

The score is primarily driven by strong financial stability (very low leverage) and solid cash generation, offset by thin profitability and subdued sales growth. Technical indicators and valuation are both broadly neutral, providing neither a strong tailwind nor a major red flag.

Positive Factors

Very low leverage / strong balance sheet

Extremely low leverage and a sizable equity base give the company durable financial flexibility. Over the next 2-6 months this reduces refinancing and solvency risk, supports investment or working-capital needs, and allows management to pursue opportunistic actions without urgent financing pressure.

Solid operating and free cash flow

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provide a reliable internal funding source for capex, dividends, and debt servicing. This cash-generation capacity supports reinvestment into products and outlets and cushions earnings volatility, strengthening the firm's structural resilience.

Diversified packaged-food + food-service model

A dual model—branded packaged foods plus company-operated food service—creates multiple demand channels and cross-selling opportunities. Structurally, this mix reduces dependency on a single sales channel and stabilizes revenue sources across retail and out-of-home markets.

Negative Factors

Thin net margin

A low net margin limits the firm's ability to absorb raw-material or logistics cost shocks and constrains investment return. Over several months this reduces scope for margin expansion, caps retained earnings for growth initiatives, and makes profitability sensitive to small top-line or cost swings.

Minimal / negative revenue growth

Subdued or slightly negative revenue growth indicates weak top-line momentum and limited scale expansion. Persisting low sales growth hampers margin leverage, restricts pricing power, and makes it harder to improve absolute profits or justify incremental capacity over the medium term.

Volatile FCF growth and moderate cash conversion

Although free cash flow is positive, sharply negative FCF growth and moderate conversion versus accounting earnings suggest underlying volatility. This raises concerns about funding predictability for reinvestment or dividends and implies working-capital or capex swings can pressure liquidity.

Nakamuraya Co., Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nakamuraya Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells various Japanese and Western confectionery, bread, and groceries in Japan. It also offers baked confectionery, rice cracker, yokan, Chinese steamed bun, curry, canned food, Chinese and western food, and frozen products. In addition, the company operates restaurants; and engages in the real estate leasing business. It sells its products through stores and mass retailers, as well as through its Website. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

How the Company Makes Money

Nakamuraya Co., Ltd. generates revenue through the production and sale of a wide range of food products. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of confectionery items, such as sweet buns and pastries, as well as ready-to-eat curry products, which have gained popularity for their convenience and authentic taste. Additionally, Nakamuraya operates retail outlets and cafes, further contributing to its income. Strategic partnerships with local and international distributors help to expand the company's market reach, while continual innovation in product offerings ensures sustained consumer interest and revenue growth.

Nakamuraya Co., Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are supported by a very strong balance sheet (very low leverage) and solid recent operating/free cash flow. However, revenue growth is minimal and profitability remains thin (modest net margin and ROE), tempering the score despite the recovery from prior weaker periods.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results show stable sales with low growth (about +0.3%) and healthy gross profitability (~37%). Profitability has improved materially versus prior loss-making periods, with positive operating profit and a modest net margin (~2.3%). However, bottom-line profitability remains thin for the sector and revenue momentum has been choppy across recent annual periods, limiting the overall score despite the recovery.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a clear strength: leverage is very low in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with debt at only ~0.03x equity, improving substantially from higher leverage levels a few years ago. Equity is sizable relative to the asset base, providing financial flexibility and resilience. The main drawback is that returns on equity are still modest (~3% in TTM), indicating the company is not yet generating strong profitability from its capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with positive operating cash flow and positive free cash flow. Free cash flow is meaningfully above recent loss/low-cash years, supporting liquidity and reinvestment capacity. Offsetting this, free cash flow growth is sharply negative in TTM and cash conversion versus accounting earnings is only moderate (free cash flow is well below net income), suggesting some volatility and working-capital/capex demands.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	37.03B	37.25B	37.77B	35.55B	33.06B	30.82B
Gross Profit	13.77B	13.52B	13.55B	12.15B	11.72B	10.18B
EBITDA	2.82B	2.58B	2.33B	1.37B	1.38B	253.07M
Net Income	860.44M	884.95M	405.11M	-28.17M	232.60M	-273.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	49.47B	45.50B	45.74B	44.82B	44.46B	44.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.78B	2.62B	1.14B	1.22B	1.19B	1.15B
Total Debt	782.00M	495.05M	2.98B	6.84B	6.56B	6.35B
Total Liabilities	21.37B	18.47B	19.13B	19.08B	18.38B	18.65B
Stockholders Equity	28.09B	27.04B	26.61B	25.74B	26.08B	26.02B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	3.45B	4.48B	3.89B	-90.58M	-29.75M	-520.69M
Operating Cash Flow	5.60B	5.17B	4.71B	658.08M	503.97M	-172.53M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.23B	-653.75M	-109.96M	-605.15M	-250.12M	596.21M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.90B	-3.03B	-4.68B	-17.36M	-212.76M	-1.09B

Nakamuraya Co., Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3075.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JP:2204, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3075 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3291.75, below the 50-day MA of 3197.50, and below the 200-day MA of 3119.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 39.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JP:2204.

Nakamuraya Co., Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2220	74 Outperform	¥90.56B	7.83	―	1.47%	20.44%	1199.18%
2810	74 Outperform	¥293.53B	10.81	4.15%	1.66%	0.74%	5.88%
2212	73 Outperform	¥650.29B	15.92	9.18%	1.13%	3.53%	4.88%
2805	73 Outperform	¥118.39B	6.86	―	1.08%	0.48%	-4.27%
2002	70 Outperform	¥580.30B	11.01	―	3.15%	-0.88%	-25.64%
2204	67 Neutral	¥19.73B	3.09	―	2.12%	-1.97%	7.25%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%