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Erg SPA
(ERG)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
€22.00
▼(-1.87% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is primarily constrained by weakening 2025 profitability and softer free-cash-flow momentum, while improving leverage and still-positive cash generation provide partial support. Technical indicators also point to weak near-term momentum, and the high P/E offsets the benefit of the dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Positive cash generation
Sustained positive operating cash flow and FCF provide durable funding for maintenance capex, project reinvestment and distributions. Even after a recent decline, consistent cash generation from operating assets supports financial flexibility, refinancing capacity and long-term project development.
Negative Factors
Sharp margin deterioration
A large, persistent drop in net and EBIT margins signals weaker underlying profitability or structural cost/price pressures. Lower margins reduce retained earnings for reinvestment, constrain dividend sustainability and increase sensitivity of returns to commodity and operating-cost swings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Positive cash generation
Sustained positive operating cash flow and FCF provide durable funding for maintenance capex, project reinvestment and distributions. Even after a recent decline, consistent cash generation from operating assets supports financial flexibility, refinancing capacity and long-term project development.
Read all positive factors
Erg SPA (ERG) vs. iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI)
Market Cap
€3.30B
Dividend Yield4.52%
Average Volume (3M)257.07K
Price to Earnings (P/E)62.7
Beta (1Y)0.21
Revenue Growth4.89%
EPS Growth-62.28%
CountryIT
Employees676
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.35
Shares Outstanding150,320,000
10 Day Avg. Volume300,009
30 Day Avg. Volume257,071
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.75
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)4.29
P/FCF Ratio15.29
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
€21.00Price Target Upside-6.33% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)€824.21M
Erg SPA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating through its numerous subsidiaries, ERG S.p.A. is an energy company primarily dedicated to generating power from renewable resources. Its geographical footprint extends across Italy, France, Germany, Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania. The fir...
How the Company Makes Money
ERG makes money primarily by producing electricity from its renewable generation fleet and monetizing that output through a mix of market sales and contracted revenue mechanisms (where available). The core revenue stream is the sale of electricity...
Erg SPA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 770.54M | 744.00M | 738.06M | 740.94M | 713.84M | 601.41M |
| Gross Profit | 419.43M | 395.87M | 550.06M | 575.81M | 408.41M | 433.41M |
| EBITDA | 491.81M | 475.00M | 534.00M | 563.02M | 462.82M | 375.92M |
| Net Income | 78.28M | 65.00M | 175.00M | 178.67M | 378.94M | 172.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.63B | 5.75B | 6.32B | 5.20B | 5.33B | 6.00B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 471.86M | 509.10M | 1.05B | 709.26M | 633.70M | 1.28B |
| Total Debt | 2.67B | 2.63B | 3.09B | 2.34B | 2.28B | 3.54B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.68B | 3.71B | 4.09B | 3.06B | 3.28B | 4.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.89B | 1.98B | 2.15B | 2.13B | 2.05B | 1.56B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 311.88M | 209.01M | 250.24M | 576.75M | 82.30M | -242.15M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 494.40M | 375.39M | 484.17M | 882.52M | 429.78M | 30.59M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -230.15M | 169.27M | -707.13M | -316.54M | 758.84M | -727.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -282.84M | -715.79M | 356.35M | -491.22M | -1.67B | 831.59M |
Erg SPA Technical Analysis
Negative
22.42
Price Trends
22.74
Negative
22.49
Negative
21.97
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.10
Negative
45.41
Neutral
56.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:ERG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.01, below the 50-day MA of 22.74, and above the 200-day MA of 21.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IT:ERG.
Erg SPA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | €3.21B | 10.74 | 8.86% | 5.36% | -8.15% | -2.68% | |
64 Neutral | €1.04B | 10.94 | 24.26% | 2.94% | 12.56% | 12.53% | |
60 Neutral | €96.48B | 23.76 | 12.65% | 3.71% | -0.14% | -26.76% | |
56 Neutral | €7.18B | 10.48 | 12.19% | 4.42% | 13.73% | -15.80% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
54 Neutral | €3.30B | 62.67 | 4.59% | 4.46% | 4.89% | -62.28% |
* General Sector Average
IT:ERG
Erg SPA
22.14
2.80
14.50%
IT:A2A
A2A SpA
2.27
0.18
8.54%
IT:ARN
Alerion CleanPower
19.14
0.07
0.39%
IT:EDNR
Edison Spa
1.91
-0.24
-11.35%
IT:ENEL
Enel S.p.A.
9.50
1.79
23.24%
IT:IRE
Iren S.p.A.
2.48
<0.01
0.36%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.