Credito Emiliano SPA Credem (CE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €4.78B
• Dividend Yield: 6.23%
• Average Volume (3M): 135.84K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: -7.81%
• EPS Growth: 4.89%
• Country: IT
• Employees: 6,289
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 341,320,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 178,195
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 135,843
• PEG Ratio: 0.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €16.20
• Price Target Upside: 5.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.45
• Revenue Forecast (FY): €1.92B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: €15.50 ▲(0.52% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/09/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/09/26

The score is primarily held back by volatile cash flow and leverage swings despite strong profitability. Offsetting this, technicals show an established uptrend and momentum, and valuation is compelling with a low P/E and a high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

High & Stable Profitability

Sustained net and EBIT margins provide durable earnings power that supports internal capital generation, dividend capacity and reinvestment. Strong margins reduce dependence on volatile trading income and help absorb credit shocks, supporting longer-term franchise stability.

Resilient Net Income & Revenue Scale

Consistent net income and rising revenue since 2020 indicate an established retail/corporate franchise with scale. Stable earnings facilitate capital planning, support fee-based businesses and enable sustained investment in distribution and technology over multi-quarter horizons.

Sizable balance sheet and healthy ROE

A large asset base and mid-teens ROE signal efficient use of capital and scale economies in lending and deposit gathering. This structural scale supports diversified revenue streams, risk pooling across portfolios and the ability to compete in corporate and retail markets.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent cash generation

Large year-to-year swings in operating and free cash flow weaken confidence in the firm's ability to self-fund growth, cover dividends or buffer shocks. Persistent volatility may force reliance on volatile wholesale funding or reduce flexibility for mortgage and corporate loan growth.

Leverage volatility

Pronounced swings in leverage reflect changing funding or balance-sheet management and raise the risk of capital pressure under stress. Variable leverage can constrain lending during tightening, complicate regulatory planning and increase sensitivity to funding-market dislocations.

Uneven revenue growth momentum

Inconsistent top-line trends suggest reliance on volatile business lines or one-off items, reducing predictability of fee income and loan origination. This uneven momentum complicates medium-term forecasting and strategic resource allocation for durable growth initiatives.

Credito Emiliano SPA Credem Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Credito Emiliano S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking services to retail and corporate customers primarily in Italy. It operates through Commercial Banking, Asset Management, Bancassurance, Trading, ALM Treasury, and Corporate Centre and Other segments. The company's deposit products include current and savings accounts, time deposits, certificates of deposit, bonds, and subordinated debts; and loan portfolio comprises mortgages, credit cards, personal loans, and salary-backed loans. It also offers wealth management services, including management of mutual investment funds, SICAV, portfolio management, and private equity and hedge funds; and asset management, bancassurance, fiduciary, remote banking, savings management, brokerage, financial leasing, factoring, insurance, and ALM treasury services. In addition, the company provides cheese warehousing, real estate management, and trading services, as well as develops software. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through 625 branches, business centers, and financial outlets in 20 regions. The company was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Reggio Emilia, Italy. Credito Emiliano S.p.A. is a subsidiary of Credito Emiliano Holding S.p.A.

How the Company Makes Money

Credem primarily makes money through a combination of banking and fee-based financial services. A core revenue stream is net interest income: it earns interest on loans and other interest-earning assets (e.g., mortgages, consumer and business lending, and other credit exposures) and pays interest on funding sources such as customer deposits and wholesale funding; the spread between these drives profitability and is influenced by interest rates, funding mix, and credit quality. A second major stream is net fees and commissions generated from providing services rather than taking balance-sheet risk—this includes fees from payment services and accounts (cards, transfers, acquiring/merchant services where applicable), lending-related commissions, and distribution/placement fees tied to investment and savings products. The group also generates revenues linked to wealth management and asset management activities (e.g., management and performance fees where applicable) and may earn insurance-related distribution commissions through bancassurance-type offerings; specific partnership details are null. Additional contributions can come from trading/financial result and other operating income (e.g., gains/losses on financial instruments and treasury activities), though these are typically more market-dependent. Across all streams, earnings are affected by loan growth, asset quality and credit losses (impairments reduce profitability), cost discipline, and the overall Italian macroeconomic and interest-rate environment.

Credito Emiliano SPA Credem Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is consistently solid (net margins ~18%–22%, EBIT margin ~27%–30%) with resilient net income (~€562M–€621M in 2023–2025). However, leverage has been volatile (debt-to-equity improved sharply in 2024 then rose in 2025), and cash flow is highly inconsistent (strong in 2022–2023, sharply negative in 2024, modestly positive in 2025), reducing confidence in earnings quality and balance-sheet stability.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown meaningfully since 2020 (from ~€1.38B to ~€3.03B in 2025), and profitability is consistently solid with net margins around ~18%–22% and EBIT margin holding near ~27%–30% in recent years. Net income has been resilient (~€562M–€621M from 2023–2025). The main weakness is growth volatility—2024 was essentially flat on revenue and the 2025 reported revenue growth figure appears unusually high versus the absolute revenue change, suggesting uneven momentum or data noise.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is sizable (total assets ~€68B in 2023–2025) with improving leverage versus the elevated 2022–2023 period: debt-to-equity moved down from ~4.55x (2022) and ~4.02x (2023) to ~1.20x (2024). However, leverage rose again in 2025 (~1.64x) as total debt increased. Shareholder returns are healthy for a bank, with return on equity in the ~13%–14% range recently, but the swing in leverage is the key risk to monitor.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is inconsistent year to year. Operating cash flow was strong in 2022–2023 (~€3.3B and ~€3.2B) but turned sharply negative in 2024 (~-€1.79B) before recovering to a modest positive level in 2025 (~€0.30B). Free cash flow shows the same pattern (strongly positive in 2022–2023, deeply negative in 2024, then positive again in 2025). While 2025 free cash flow covers a large portion of net income (about ~83%), the volatility—especially the 2024 outflow—reduces confidence in cash-flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.91B	3.03B	3.06B	2.79B	1.76B	1.58B
Gross Profit	2.22B	2.42B	2.20B	2.06B	1.61B	1.48B
EBITDA	1.05B	906.74M	1.02B	934.53M	577.15M	563.41M
Net Income	668.05M	621.47M	620.05M	562.12M	326.12M	352.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	65.05B	68.13B	67.97B	68.02B	65.04B	67.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.05B	1.44B	4.68B	6.78B	3.36B	8.04B
Total Debt	5.34B	7.64B	5.13B	5.30B	15.39B	3.17B
Total Liabilities	60.61B	63.46B	63.68B	64.15B	61.46B	64.12B
Stockholders Equity	4.44B	4.66B	4.29B	3.87B	3.36B	3.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.30B	248.13M	-1.91B	3.14B	3.23B	-5.02M
Operating Cash Flow	-2.27B	299.13M	-1.79B	3.19B	3.34B	135.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-30.05M	-1.97B	-106.97M	-110.05M	-101.39M	-126.43M
Financing Cash Flow	-258.20M	-1.13B	-218.56M	-108.84M	-108.34M	-15.18M

Credito Emiliano SPA Credem Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IT:CE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.93, above the 50-day MA of 15.28, and above the 200-day MA of 14.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IT:CE.

Credito Emiliano SPA Credem Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CE	73 Outperform	€4.78B	8.39	13.87%	6.23%	-7.81%	4.89%
BPSO	72 Outperform	€6.80B	13.84	14.64%	4.87%	-10.80%	20.43%
IF	71 Outperform	€1.31B	4.76	16.33%	8.44%	-3.63%	-5.12%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
PRO	64 Neutral	€101.39M	11.22	7.01%	7.69%	-12.26%	31.82%
BDB	53 Neutral	€1.11B	9.76	7.87%	4.86%	-5.81%	-11.05%

Credito Emiliano SPA Credem Corporate Events

Credem Posts €621.5 Million Profit and Lifts Shareholder Payouts With New Incentive Plans

Credem reported a consolidated net profit of €621.5 million for 2025, up 0.2% year on year, supported by 8.4% growth in customer funding to €114.1 billion, a 3.6% increase in loans to €37.7 billion, and the acquisition of over 181,000 new customers. The board proposed a dividend of €0.75 per share, totaling €255.1 million and bringing payouts to nearly €950 million over five years, and also approved share-based incentive plans for top management and key staff to align remuneration with performance and regulatory requirements.

The 2026 Incentive Plan will grant a significant portion of variable bonuses in Credem shares, with multi-year deferral and performance conditions designed to retain key personnel and support prudent risk-taking. The board also confirmed activation conditions for the 2025 incentive plan covering up to 290,935 shares, underscoring the group’s focus on long-term value creation, governance of compensation, and reinforcement of its competitive positioning in the Italian banking market.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:CE) stock is a Buy with a EUR18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Credito Emiliano SPA Credem stock, see the IT:CE Stock Forecast page.

Credem Co-General Manager Discloses Sale of 10,000 Shares

Credito Emiliano’s co-general manager, Stefano Pilastri, has reported the sale of 10,000 Credem ordinary shares on the MTAA market. The transaction, executed on 9 February 2026 at a price of €15.8537 per share, is a routine disclosure under European market abuse regulations and signals insider share disposal but does not by itself indicate a strategic shift by the bank.

Such transactions by senior executives are closely watched by investors as potential indicators of management’s view on valuation or personal portfolio needs. However, with no accompanying commentary or broader corporate actions disclosed, the sale appears as standard personal trading activity within the regulatory disclosure framework for persons discharging managerial responsibilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:CE) stock is a Buy with a EUR18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Credito Emiliano SPA Credem stock, see the IT:CE Stock Forecast page.

Credem Posts Solid 2025 Profit, Boosts Lending and Funding While Advancing ESG and Digital Strategy

Credem reported preliminary 2025 results with consolidated net profit of €621.5 million, supported by strong capitalization (CET1 ratio of 16.99% at banking group level) and a low cost of risk at 13 basis points, while approving a dividend of €0.75 per share. The bank accelerated commercial growth, adding over 181,000 new customers, expanding customer loans to €37.7 billion—growing more than three times the Italian banking system—and lifting total customer funding to €114 billion on the back of rising indirect and insurance funding, as well as solid performances in leasing, factoring, consumer credit, private banking and wealth management. Credem also reinforced its sustainability and human capital strategy by approving a long-term climate transition plan to 2050, integrating ESG goals into industrial planning, allocating over €1.5 billion to support clients’ ecological transition, expanding agile work and training for employees, and enhancing digital services with heavy use of remote channels, moves that collectively strengthen its competitive positioning and long-term resilience.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:CE) stock is a Buy with a EUR17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Credito Emiliano SPA Credem stock, see the IT:CE Stock Forecast page.

Credem Reports Insider-Related Disposal of 90,000 Ordinary Shares

Credem disclosed a transaction by a person closely associated with standing auditor Giulio Morandi, involving the disposal of 90,000 ordinary Credem shares on the MTAA market at a price of €15.2662 per share on 22 December 2025. The notification, made under EU Market Abuse Regulation requirements for managers’ transactions, provides transparency on insider-related dealings but does not indicate any link to share option programmes or broader changes in the bank’s strategy or governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (IT:CE) stock is a Buy with a EUR16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Credito Emiliano SPA Credem stock, see the IT:CE Stock Forecast page.