Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. (MRPL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: ₹335.27B
• Dividend Yield: 2.04%
• Average Volume (3M): 323.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.44
• Revenue Growth: -11.96%
• EPS Growth: 14.31%
• Country: IN
• Employees: 2,548
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 8.25
• Shares Outstanding: 1,752,598,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 549,586
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 323,759
• PEG Ratio: -4.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.82
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 12.5
• Revenue Forecast (FY): ₹865.31B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: ₹229.00 ▲(51.30% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

The score is driven primarily by improving profitability but constrained by weakened cash generation and modest growth. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages, while valuation is a clear positive due to a very low P/E and a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Improving profit margins

Sustained improvement in gross and EBIT margins signals stronger operational performance and better feedstock-to-product economics. Over 2–6 months this can translate into higher retained earnings and buffers against cyclical crude swings, supporting reinvestment and debt servicing capacity.

Core refining business resilience

A vertically focused refinery model centered on transportation fuels and diverse refined product streams provides durable demand exposure. Stable domestic fuel demand and ability to sell by-products (naphtha, LPG, sulfur) support steady revenue base and operational scale across cycles.

Moderate leverage with equity buffer

A roughly 1:1 debt-to-equity profile with a ~38% equity ratio indicates balanced financing: enough leverage to enhance returns while retaining an equity cushion. This structural balance supports capital spending and credit flexibility if operating cash flow stabilizes.

Negative Factors

Sharp free cash flow decline

An ~84% drop in free cash flow materially weakens liquidity and limits capacity for capex, maintenance, dividend support and debt reduction. Over months this raises refinancing and investment risk, reducing resilience to prolonged weak margins or higher working capital needs.

Weak/negative revenue trend

Negative revenue growth suggests demand or market-share pressures and reduces the ability to absorb fixed refinery costs. Persistently weak top-line growth over several quarters constrains margin expansion, cash generation and the company’s capacity to scale or fund upgrades.

Low return on equity

ROE near zero signals limited profitability relative to shareholder capital and suggests inefficient capital use. Even with margin improvements, such low returns imply structural issues in translating operating gains into equity value, hindering long-term shareholder return prospects.

Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited manufactures and sells refined petroleum products in India. The company produces and sells bitumen, furnace oil, high speed diesel, xylol, naphtha pet coke, sulphur, and motor gasoline, as well as polypropylene and other products. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is based in Mangalore, India. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited is a subsidiary of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited.

How the Company Makes Money

MRPL primarily makes money by buying crude oil and refining it into higher-value petroleum products, then selling those products into domestic and export markets. The main revenue stream is the sale of refined products (commonly including transportation fuels such as petrol/gasoline, diesel and aviation turbine fuel, as well as other refinery products such as LPG, naphtha, furnace/fuel oil, bitumen, petcoke, sulfur and other by-products); the exact product mix sold in a given period depends on operating mode and market conditions. Its core profitability driver is the refining margin (often discussed as gross refining margin, GRM): the spread between the realized prices of the refined product basket and the cost of crude oil and other processing inputs, net of operating costs. MRPL’s earnings are therefore heavily influenced by (a) global crude price levels and differentials across crude grades, (b) product crack spreads and demand for each product category, (c) refinery utilization rates, yields and complexity (ability to convert heavier fractions into lighter, higher-value products), (d) foreign exchange movements to the extent crude purchases and product sales are linked to international pricing, and (e) domestic taxes, duties and regulatory conditions that affect net realizations. In addition to product sales, MRPL can generate ancillary income from sale of by-products (e.g., sulfur/petcoke) and from logistics or other services tied to its refining operations where applicable; if any such income exists, it is typically small compared with fuel/product sales. Information on specific long-term offtake agreements, named partnerships, or the exact split between domestic marketing versus export sales is null.

Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability has improved with positive net margins and better gross/EBIT margins, but revenue growth is modest. Balance sheet leverage is moderate (Debt-to-Equity ~1.01) with low ROE, and cash flow quality is a key concern due to a sharp free cash flow decline (-83.83% YoY).

Income Statement

Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. shows significant improvement in profitability, with a positive net profit margin in the latest year compared to previous losses. Gross profit margin improved to 5.76%, and the EBIT margin reached 5.02%. However, the revenue growth rate from 2024 to 2025 was modest at 4.77%, indicating slower growth compared to prior years. The company's ability to sustain margins amidst fluctuating revenues is commendable.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a relatively stable financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 1.01, indicating balanced leverage. The Return on Equity (ROE) is low at 0.43%, reflecting limited profitability on equity capital. The Equity Ratio of 37.67% demonstrates a reasonable proportion of equity financing, providing a buffer against liabilities. However, high debt levels could pose risks if not managed effectively.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains positive, but there is a sharp decline from previous periods. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 33.42 indicates reliance on operations for cash generation. Free cash flow decreased significantly, with a growth rate of -83.83% from 2024 to 2025, which raises concerns about future liquidity and investment capacity. Maintaining positive free cash flow is crucial for future growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	866.78B	948.89B	903.34B	1.09T	697.58B	319.59B
Gross Profit	62.23B	48.50B	100.57B	98.42B	69.92B	24.66B
EBITDA	40.57B	24.68B	79.54B	78.22B	51.69B	5.62B
Net Income	10.35B	562.05M	35.97B	26.55B	29.58B	-7.65B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	355.61B	344.35B	354.30B	351.45B	400.71B	347.29B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.74B	313.90M	97.28M	389.20M	55.24M	258.25M
Total Debt	108.24B	131.43B	126.87B	169.39B	213.10B	240.62B
Total Liabilities	222.43B	214.65B	221.48B	252.81B	328.62B	304.81B
Stockholders Equity	133.18B	129.70B	132.83B	98.65B	72.09B	42.48B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	35.75B	8.88B	54.89B	56.62B	40.82B	-37.16B
Operating Cash Flow	43.28B	18.78B	70.45B	63.64B	46.93B	-28.02B
Investing Cash Flow	-7.34B	-9.40B	-15.18B	-6.73B	-5.95B	-20.99B
Financing Cash Flow	-27.97B	-9.38B	-55.24B	-56.90B	-41.19B	49.25B

Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 151.35
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IN:MRPL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 151.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 191.17, below the 50-day MA of 175.81, and above the 200-day MA of 149.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.62 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IN:MRPL.

Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BPCL	76 Outperform	₹1.25T	5.71	―	4.73%	-1.35%	61.80%
PETRONET	75 Outperform	₹386.40B	12.25	―	3.58%	-13.73%	-7.20%
MRPL	71 Outperform	₹335.27B	4.59	―	2.04%	-11.96%	14.31%
GUJGASLTD	69 Neutral	₹244.10B	26.58	―	1.47%	-2.39%	-12.17%
IOC	68 Neutral	₹2.04T	4.41	―	4.90%	-0.93%	42.85%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
HINDPETRO	58 Neutral	₹715.48B	6.62	―	3.26%	-1.81%	231.75%

Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. Corporate Events

MRPL Refutes Social Media Rumours of Refinery Shutdown, Says Operations Normal

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. has denied social media reports claiming it has begun shutting down parts of its 300,000 barrels-per-day Mangalore refinery due to crude feedstock shortages linked to Middle Eastern supply disruptions. The refiner said operations are normal and that it has secured adequate crude oil volumes to sustain refining activities, aiming to reassure investors, customers, and lenders about business continuity and supply reliability.

The company’s clarification, issued to both the BSE and NSE under market disclosure rules, challenges the credibility of the widely circulated tweet and underscores its intent to counter misinformation that could unsettle markets. By emphasizing sufficient crude availability and normal plant operations, MRPL seeks to protect its market reputation and signal operational resilience amid concerns over Gulf-region oil flows.

MRPL Swings to Strong Profit, Cuts Debt and Diversifies Crude in Q3 FY26

MRPL’s board has approved the standalone and consolidated unaudited financial results for the third quarter and nine months ended 31 December 2025, reporting a sharp improvement in profitability and balance sheet metrics. For Q3 FY 2025-26, revenue from operations rose to ₹29,720 crore from ₹25,601 crore a year earlier, while profit before tax jumped to ₹2,214 crore from ₹469 crore and profit after tax increased to ₹1,445 crore from ₹304 crore, accompanied by an improvement in the debt-equity ratio to 0.63 from 0.79 at end-September 2025. Over the first nine months of FY 2025-26, MRPL posted revenue of ₹76,661 crore versus ₹81,676 crore in the prior-year period but swung from a loss to a profit, with profit before tax of ₹2,786 crore against a loss of ₹471 crore and profit after tax of ₹1,812 crore versus a loss of ₹313 crore, while total borrowings were cut from ₹12,867 crore to ₹9,290 crore and the debt-equity ratio improved from 0.99 to 0.63. Operationally, refinery throughput reached 4.70 MMT in Q3 and 12.65 MMT for the nine months, the company began using leased cavern storage from ISPRL in Mangalore for crude and commenced processing from this facility, and processed Libya’s Sarir Mesla crude for the first time, underscoring efforts to diversify crude sourcing and enhance infrastructure utilization.

MRPL Says Surge in Share Trading Volumes Is Market-Driven, Denies Undisclosed Developments

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited has clarified to stock exchanges that the recent sharp increase in trading volumes of its shares is not backed by any undisclosed price-sensitive information. Responding to a query from the National Stock Exchange’s surveillance team, the company stated that there is no pending event requiring disclosure under securities regulations and attributed the spike in volumes to market-driven factors, signaling to investors and regulators that no internal corporate development is behind the recent activity in the stock.