Heartland Express (HTLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $735.82M
• Dividend Yield: 0.87%
• Average Volume (3M): 609.23K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: -19.56%
• EPS Growth: -54.39%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,220
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Trucking
• EPS (TTM): -0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 77,454,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 762,387
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 609,233
• PEG Ratio: -0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.87
• P/FCF Ratio: -10.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.19
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -114.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.57
• 1Y Price Target: $10.25
• Price Target Upside: 7.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.22
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $742.56M

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(5.26% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is held back primarily by deteriorated financial performance (revenue declines and net losses with pressured margins and weaker 2025 free cash flow), partly offset by a healthier, de-levered balance sheet and positive operating cash flow. Technicals are moderately supportive with a positive trend and neutral momentum, while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and only a modest dividend yield. Recent corporate events are generally positive, emphasizing dividend continuity and operational integration aimed at improvement.

Positive Factors

Improved leverage

A substantially lower debt-to-equity ratio increases financial flexibility and reduces interest burden, supporting the firm's ability to fund operations, integration costs for CFI, and dividends without needing immediate external financing. This strengthens balance-sheet resilience over months.

Consistent operating cash flow

Sustained positive operating cash flow despite accounting losses indicates the core trucking operations generate cash to cover day-to-day needs and working capital. This durable cash generation capacity helps fund operations and supports near-term execution of turnaround initiatives.

Positive underlying EBITDA

A positive EBITDA margin shows the business can earn operating cash before non-cash items and one-offs, implying structural operating economics remain intact. This provides a base for recovery if revenue stabilizes and integration synergies from CFI are realized over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Revenue decline and net losses

Material revenue rolloff and consecutive net losses undermine retained earnings and limit reinvestment capacity. Persistent top-line weakness raises risk that fixed-costs and fleet economics will continue to strain margins absent durable demand or renewed contract pricing discipline.

Volatile, negative free cash flow

Inconsistent free cash flow, including a sharp negative in 2025, signals the company may struggle to fund capital needs, integration costs or dividends from internal resources alone. Over months this raises refinancing and execution risk if cash burn persists.

Margin compression and gross margin weakness

Negative gross margin indicates pressure at the core revenue-minus-direct-cost level, reflecting pricing or cost escalation issues. Sustained margin compression reduces the firm's buffer for operating leverage, making profitability recovery dependent on structural pricing power or material cost cuts.

Heartland Express Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Heartland Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a short-to-medium haul truckload carrier in the United States and Canada. It primarily provides nationwide asset-based dry van truckload service for shippers from Washington to Florida and New England to California; and temperature-controlled truckload services. The company offers its services under the Heartland Express and Millis Transfer brand names. It primarily serves retailers and manufacturers in consumer goods, appliances, food products, and automotive industries. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa.

How the Company Makes Money

Heartland Express makes money primarily by hauling full truckload shipments for customers and charging freight rates that are typically priced per mile, per load, or under contracted arrangements (often with fuel-related pricing mechanisms). Its core revenue stream is asset-based truckload transportation, where the company earns revenue from operating its owned/leased tractor-trailer fleet and coordinating pickup-to-delivery service; profitability depends on equipment utilization, effective route planning, driver availability, maintenance and insurance costs, and the spread between freight rates and operating expenses (including fuel). The company may also generate revenue from logistics/brokerage-style services (arranging transportation with third-party carriers) where it earns a margin between what it charges the customer and what it pays the carrier, but specific product-line contribution details are null. Additional factors that influence earnings include customer mix (contract vs. spot), overall freight demand and capacity, fuel prices and the company’s ability to recover fuel costs through pricing mechanisms, and operating efficiency (empty miles, dwell time, and network balance). Information on specific major partnerships or customer concentrations is null.

Heartland Express Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating results have weakened materially since 2022 with revenue declines and sustained net losses in 2024–2025, including margin compression (gross margin slightly negative in 2025). Offsetting this, the balance sheet is relatively de-levered (debt-to-equity down to ~0.21 in 2025) and operating cash flow remains positive, but free cash flow turned sharply negative in 2025 and has been inconsistent.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated sharply from strong results in 2021–2022 to losses in 2024–2025. Revenue has also rolled over, falling in 2024 and accelerating lower in 2025, while margins compressed materially—gross margin turned slightly negative in 2025 and net margin remained negative in both 2024 and 2025. A key positive is that EBITDA margin is still positive (mid-teens in 2024 and low-teens in 2025), suggesting some underlying operating cash earnings, but it has declined meaningfully from 2022 levels.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and has improved versus prior years, with debt-to-equity stepping down from ~0.51 (2022) to ~0.21 (2025) alongside lower total debt. However, equity and total assets have trended down since 2023, and returns on equity have turned negative in 2024–2025, reflecting recent net losses. Overall, the balance sheet provides reasonable financial flexibility, but continued losses could pressure the equity base over time.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains positive across all years provided, including 2025, which is a notable support despite net losses. Free cash flow is volatile: positive in 2022 and 2024, but negative in 2020, 2021, 2023, and materially negative in 2025, indicating inconsistent cash generation after investment needs. The mix of positive operating cash flow but uneven free cash flow suggests execution and cycle sensitivity, with 2025 standing out as a weaker cash year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	805.71M	1.05B	1.21B	968.00M	607.28M
Gross Profit	-7.65M	38.88M	78.20M	149.87M	93.82M
EBITDA	102.56M	162.43M	243.08M	322.69M	210.13M
Net Income	-52.45M	-29.72M	14.78M	133.58M	79.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.19B	1.33B	1.51B	1.67B	928.54M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	18.48M	12.81M	28.12M	50.21M	157.74M
Total Debt	161.42M	208.61M	317.44M	433.96M	0.00
Total Liabilities	436.30M	511.59M	644.39M	814.01M	201.44M
Stockholders Equity	755.32M	822.60M	865.26M	855.48M	727.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-66.85M	34.81M	-43.33M	34.15M	-9.22M
Operating Cash Flow	89.31M	144.35M	165.27M	194.71M	123.42M
Investing Cash Flow	-26.00M	-46.54M	-67.87M	-663.26M	-2.65M
Financing Cash Flow	-58.15M	-112.71M	-120.69M	359.26M	-78.14M

Heartland Express Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 9.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTLD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.85, below the 50-day MA of 10.66, and above the 200-day MA of 8.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HTLD.

Heartland Express Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CVLG	60 Neutral	$617.80M	76.15	6.84%	1.23%	1.62%	-22.52%
HTLD	57 Neutral	$735.82M	-13.41	-6.71%	0.87%	-19.56%	-54.39%
ARCB	56 Neutral	$1.90B	―	4.61%	0.62%	-5.34%	-48.16%
MRTN	54 Neutral	$934.47M	53.18	2.27%	2.07%	-9.74%	-42.57%
ULH	52 Neutral	$370.75M	-2.07	-6.38%	2.76%	-7.55%	-130.67%
WERN	49 Neutral	$1.67B	-126.32	1.78%	1.84%	-3.42%	-43.86%

Heartland Express Corporate Events

Heartland Express names Joshua Helmich Chief Administrative Officer

In connection with the integration of Contract Freighters, Inc.’s U.S. operations into Heartland Express, the company appointed Joshua Helmich as Chief Administrative Officer of Heartland Express, effective January 1, 2026. Helmich, who will continue to serve as the company’s Secretary, ended his roles as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of CFI as of December 31, 2025, marking a leadership realignment that supports the operational and administrative consolidation following the CFI integration.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTLD) stock is a Buy with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heartland Express stock, see the HTLD Stock Forecast page.

Heartland Express Declares Ninetieth Consecutive Quarterly Cash Dividend

On December 16, 2025, Heartland Express, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.02 per share, to be paid on January 7, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 26, 2025, with an estimated total payout of $1.6 million on approximately 78 million common shares. This marks the company’s ninetieth consecutive quarterly cash dividend and brings total cash dividends paid since the program’s launch in the third quarter of 2003 to $561.4 million, underscoring Heartland Express’s sustained commitment to returning capital to shareholders and reinforcing its stability and reliability as a long-term dividend payer.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTLD) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heartland Express stock, see the HTLD Stock Forecast page.