Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $787.99M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 348.70K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 5.92%
• EPS Growth: 93.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 540
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 2.15
• Shares Outstanding: 30,720,919
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 351,884
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 348,703
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.07
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.19
• 1Y Price Target: $36.50
• Price Target Upside: 42.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.33
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $906.05M

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $32.00 ▲(24.76% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

Overall score is driven by the strong financial turnaround (profitability, cash flow, and improved capital position) and supportive earnings-call guidance, with additional lift from a very low P/E. The main constraint is the insurer’s historical earnings/cash-flow volatility and catastrophe/competitive exposure, while technicals remain constructive.

Positive Factors

Material profitability rebound and margin improvement

A pronounced multi-year profitability recovery—large net income, very strong ROE, and a 62% combined ratio—indicates sustained underwriting discipline and expense control. These durable margin gains improve capital generation capacity and resilience across future underwriting cycles.

Strengthened capital base and lower leverage

A materially stronger balance sheet—lower net leverage and a bigger equity and surplus cushion—provides durable capacity to absorb catastrophe shocks, support underwriting growth, and finance strategic initiatives without immediate external capital dependence.

Marked improvement in cash generation

Sustained operating and free cash flow growth improves financial flexibility for reinsurance purchases, reserve strengthening, share repurchases, and incremental tech/data investment, reducing reliance on capital markets during adverse underwriting periods.

Negative Factors

Historic earnings and cash-flow volatility tied to CAT cycles

Past large underwriting losses and swings in cash flow demonstrate the franchise’s sensitivity to catastrophe frequency and severity. Even with recent improvement, periodic CAT events and reserve uncertainty can materially erode earnings, capital, and cash for extended periods.

Stagnant in-force premiums and competitive pressure

Very modest top-line growth and pockets of intense competition constrain scalable premium growth. If management continues to eschew underpriced opportunities, growth will rely on selective markets and new product entries, limiting durable expansion unless competitive dynamics improve.

Reinsurance/program changes may raise acquisition and volatility

Reducing quota share protection and ceded premium can boost net exposure to losses and remove ceding commissions that offset acquisition costs. Over the medium term this can increase underwriting earnings volatility and raise the cost of growing adjusted retained premiums.

Heritage Insurance Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial residential insurance products. The company offers personal residential property insurance for single-family homeowners and condominium owners, and rental property insurance in the states of Alabama, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Virginia; commercial residential insurance for properties in Florida, New Jersey, and New York; and licensed in the state of Pennsylvania, as well as personal residential and wind-only property insurance. It also provides restoration, and emergency and recovery services; and property management, and reinsurance services. The company writes personal line policies through a network of retail independent agents, wholesale agents, and a partnership with a direct agency, as well as indirectly to approximately 1,500 retail locations through eight wholesale agency relationships; and personal and commercial insurance policies through a network of approximately 70 independent agencies. Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Heritage Insurance Holdings primarily makes money through its insurance underwriting operations and investment income. (1) Premiums earned: The company writes property and casualty insurance policies and collects premiums from policyholders. Premium revenue is recognized as premiums earned over the policy term, net of items such as cancellations and return premiums. (2) Underwriting profit/loss: From earned premiums, the company pays claims and claim adjustment expenses (losses) and incurs underwriting expenses (e.g., commissions, policy acquisition costs, servicing, and general operating costs). If earned premiums exceed losses and underwriting expenses, the company generates underwriting profit; if not, it records an underwriting loss. (3) Reinsurance impact: Heritage purchases reinsurance to limit exposure to large catastrophes and adverse loss development. Reinsurance reduces net premiums retained (ceded premiums) and can add recoverables when losses occur; overall earnings are influenced by the cost and structure of reinsurance, retention levels, and catastrophe experience. (4) Investment income: Like most insurers, Heritage invests the float (premiums collected before claims are paid) in an investment portfolio and earns interest and other investment returns. Investment results can materially affect profitability, particularly in periods of high catastrophe losses. (5) Other revenue: null

Heritage Insurance Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong turnaround with accelerating revenue and sharply improved profitability, plus meaningfully higher operating/free cash flow in 2025 and improved leverage/capital base. Score is tempered by historical volatility (losses and negative cash flow in 2021–2022), highlighting sensitivity to underwriting/catastrophe cycles.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly over the period, with 2025 accelerating materially versus prior years. Profitability also improved sharply: after sizable losses in 2021–2022, the company returned to solid profitability in 2023–2024 and delivered a step-up in 2025, with net margin rising to ~23% (vs. ~8% in 2024). The key weakness is volatility—earnings and margins have swung meaningfully across the cycle (notably the 2021–2022 loss years), which is a risk factor for a property & casualty insurer.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved meaningfully: total debt declined from 2022–2024 levels to ~$100M in 2025, while equity expanded sharply to ~$505M, strengthening the capital base. Returns on equity are very strong in 2024–2025, reflecting the earnings rebound and larger profitability. The main drawback is historical balance-sheet stress (high leverage and deeply negative returns in 2022), highlighting that capital strength can fluctuate with underwriting results and loss experience.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved substantially: operating cash flow increased from ~$87M (2024) to ~$182M (2025), and free cash flow also rose to ~$182M. Earlier years show more variability, including negative operating and free cash flow in 2022, which underscores sensitivity to adverse periods. Overall, recent cash flow momentum is strong, but the historical swings keep the score below top-tier.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	847.33M	816.99M	735.50M	662.46M	631.56M
Gross Profit	534.08M	178.75M	141.76M	4.99M	58.22M
EBITDA	279.85M	103.16M	71.90M	-149.00M	-59.62M
Net Income	195.59M	61.54M	45.31M	-154.36M	-74.73M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.20B	2.47B	2.12B	2.39B	1.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	559.27M	544.00M	553.17M	394.56M	1.03B
Total Debt	99.81M	141.34M	148.19M	160.19M	151.93M
Total Liabilities	1.69B	2.18B	1.90B	2.26B	1.64B
Stockholders Equity	505.25M	290.80M	220.28M	131.04M	343.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	174.16M	78.86M	60.52M	-46.64M	59.12M
Operating Cash Flow	182.24M	87.09M	70.42M	-34.26M	60.13M
Investing Cash Flow	-32.67M	-91.60M	100.81M	-37.86M	-124.48M
Financing Cash Flow	-40.63M	-5.19M	14.55M	-5.06M	-17.28M

Heritage Insurance Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 25.65
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HRTG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.30, below the 50-day MA of 26.36, and above the 200-day MA of 25.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HRTG.

Heritage Insurance Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UVE	82 Outperform	$927.91M	5.15	37.99%	2.18%	4.61%	73.40%
UFCS	80 Outperform	$929.00M	6.27	13.50%	1.73%	12.22%	120.73%
HRTG	79 Outperform	$787.99M	4.62	47.28%	―	5.92%	93.02%
SAFT	76 Outperform	$1.05B	11.55	11.29%	4.59%	13.35%	16.56%
ACIC	70 Outperform	$538.14M	5.73	35.67%	―	16.34%	-1.26%
DGICA	69 Neutral	$629.82M	7.74	12.91%	3.51%	0.93%	224.95%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Heritage Insurance Holdings Corporate Events

Heritage Insurance Signals Strong Preliminary 2025 Profit Surge

Heritage Insurance Holdings said on February 23, 2026 that it expects to post fourth-quarter 2025 after-tax net income above $60 million, or more than $2.00 per share, and a full-year 2025 return on equity exceeding 45%, driven by higher revenue and lower losses and expenses versus the prior-year quarter. The company plans to release its full fourth-quarter and 2025 results before the market opens on March 9, 2026, host an earnings call the same day, and discuss these matters at the Association of Insurance and Financial Analysts 2026 Annual Conference on March 3, 2026, signaling a potentially stronger financial footing in a challenging catastrophe-focused insurance market.

Heritage’s upbeat preliminary profit estimates suggest a sharp improvement in performance and capital generation, which may bolster its standing with investors and policyholders in catastrophe-prone regions while the market awaits audited numbers. The company’s planned participation at the analyst conference and its detailed investor communications strategy indicate an effort to highlight operational momentum and strengthen engagement with the financial community ahead of the formal earnings release.

The most recent analyst rating on (HRTG) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heritage Insurance Holdings stock, see the HRTG Stock Forecast page.