HCI Group (HCI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.97B
• Dividend Yield: 0.82%
• Average Volume (3M): 114.98K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.61
• Revenue Growth: 8.71%
• EPS Growth: 17.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 552
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
• EPS (TTM): 7.25
• Shares Outstanding: 12,991,955
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 117,577
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 114,985
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.43
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.92
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.84
• 1Y Price Target: $235.00
• Price Target Upside: 55.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 16.58
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $975.23M

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $174.00 ▲(14.81% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by strengthened financial performance (rapid revenue growth, large profitability rebound, robust cash generation, and sharply reduced leverage). Valuation also supports the rating with a low P/E (~10). Offsetting factors are a mixed technical picture (negative MACD and price below key medium-term averages) and some durability/transparency risk due to historical volatility and limited 2025 operating-line detail.

Positive Factors

Revenue and profitability rebound

HCI scaled revenue materially from 2020–2025 with a marked profitability rebound to a 35.6% net margin in 2025. A larger, profitable premium base strengthens underwriting scale, funds reserve builds, and enhances capacity to invest in growth or withstand adverse loss years over the medium term.

De-risked balance sheet

Leverage fell sharply to near-zero by 2025 and equity doubled, giving HCI durable financial flexibility. A conservative capital structure reduces refinancing risk, supports reinsurance buys and catastrophe absorption, and enables strategic actions (M&A, share support, or dividends) across a multi-month horizon.

Robust cash generation

Operating and free cash flow converged near $444M in 2025 with strong cash conversion versus net income, signaling durable internal funding for reserve needs, reinsurance, and capex. Consistent cash generation supports solvency and strategic flexibility over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Prior-cycle volatility

HCI exhibited marked performance swings with a weak 2022 (loss and near-zero cash flow), underscoring sensitivity to underwriting cycles and catastrophe events. This history implies earnings and capital can deteriorate quickly in adverse years, complicating medium-term forecasting and risk planning.

Limited operating-line transparency

Key 2025 operating-line fields are reported as zero, restricting visibility into underlying underwriting and operating margins. Without clearer segmentation of underwriting vs investment results, assessing sustainable core profitability and forecasting multi-month earnings reliability is materially harder.

Concentration and catastrophe exposure

HCI concentrates in homeowners P&C, making results sensitive to hurricane and regional catastrophe risk. Policy assumptions (e.g., from Citizens) and Florida exposure can amplify reserve and reinsurance needs, creating structural earnings and capital volatility over the 2–6 month horizon around active storm seasons.

HCI Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HCI Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, real estate, and information technology businesses in Florida. It provides residential insurance products, such as homeowners, fire, flood, and wind-only insurance to homeowners, condominium owners, and tenants for properties, as well as offers reinsurance programs. The company also owns and operates waterfront properties and retail shopping centers, and an office building, as well as commercial properties for investment purposes. In addition, it designs and develops web-based applications and products for mobile devices, including SAMS, an online policy administration platform; Harmony, a policy administration platform; ClaimColony, an end-to-end claims management platform; and AtlasViewer, a mapping and data visualization platform. The company was formerly known as Homeowners Choice, Inc. and changed its name to HCI Group, Inc. in May 2013. HCI Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

HCI primarily makes money through (1) insurance underwriting and (2) investment income on its invested assets. Underwriting revenue is generated from premiums collected on property insurance policies (notably homeowners coverage). From these premiums, HCI pays policyholder claims and loss adjustment expenses, incurs policy acquisition costs (such as commissions and marketing), and covers operating expenses; the difference between earned premiums and these costs results in underwriting profit (or loss). HCI also uses reinsurance to manage catastrophe and concentration risk; this affects earnings through ceded premiums paid to reinsurers and recoveries received on covered losses, as well as the structure of retentions and limits that can materially influence profitability in active catastrophe years. In addition to underwriting results, HCI earns investment income by investing premium float and capital in a portfolio of invested assets; returns from interest, dividends, and realized/unrealized gains (where applicable under accounting treatment) contribute to total earnings. Separately, HCI earns service and fee income through its third-party administrator operations by providing insurance administration and claims-related services; this revenue is typically fee-based and tied to the volume of policies/claims administered. Key factors affecting HCI’s earnings include catastrophe frequency/severity (e.g., hurricanes), rate adequacy and regulatory approvals in its operating states, reinsurance pricing/availability, policy growth/retention, claims trends and litigation environment, and investment market conditions that impact portfolio yields and valuations.

HCI Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year improvement: revenue scaled sharply to $900.9M (2025) and profitability rebounded materially with net income reaching $320.4M (~35.6% margin). Balance sheet de-risked significantly (debt-to-equity ~0.03x in 2025) with strong ROE in 2023–2025, and operating/free cash flow rose to $444.4M (2025). Key offsets are prior-cycle volatility (notably 2022 weakness) and limited 2025 operating-line detail (gross profit/EBIT/EBITDA reported as zero), reducing transparency into earnings durability.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled meaningfully over time, accelerating from $275.7M (2020) to $900.9M (2025), with strong growth in 2023–2025 and a particularly sharp step-up in 2024–2025. Profitability also improved materially: after a loss in 2022, net income rebounded to $79.0M (2023), $110.0M (2024), and $320.4M (2025), with net margin expanding to ~35.6% in 2025. Key weakness: several 2025 operating profit fields are reported as zero (gross profit/EBIT/EBITDA), limiting visibility into underlying underwriting/operating margin quality and making the 2025 margin picture harder to validate.

Balance Sheet

Leverage trends improved substantially: debt-to-equity declined from elevated levels in 2022 (~1.31x) to ~0.65x (2023), ~0.41x (2024), and a very conservative ~0.03x (2025), reflecting a much stronger capital position. Equity increased sharply to ~$1.04B in 2025 (from ~$453M in 2024), supporting a larger asset base ($2.53B in 2025). Return on equity is strong in 2023–2025 (~24% to ~31%), but the historical volatility (notably negative ROE in 2022) highlights that results can swing meaningfully in weaker years.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong and improving: operating cash flow rose from $230.7M (2023) to $331.8M (2024) and $444.4M (2025), and free cash flow closely tracks operating cash flow (and reached $444.4M in 2025). Cash conversion appears solid in profitable years, with free cash flow roughly in line with net income in 2023–2025 (~97% to 100%). Main risk: cash flow was severely weak in 2022 (near-zero operating cash flow and negative free cash flow), underscoring potential volatility through the cycle.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	900.95M	749.45M	550.01M	491.99M	402.55M
Gross Profit	659.12M	275.34M	204.61M	15.55M	81.29M
EBITDA	449.70M	191.01M	136.87M	-52.77M	23.08M
Net Income	299.00M	109.95M	79.03M	-58.51M	1.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.53B	2.23B	1.81B	1.80B	1.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.81B	1.05B	770.50M	500.22M	671.53M
Total Debt	67.32M	186.44M	209.90M	212.41M	62.71M
Total Liabilities	1.41B	1.76B	1.39B	1.55B	762.40M
Stockholders Equity	1.04B	453.33M	324.84M	162.60M	323.37M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	444.45M	327.76M	224.16M	-10.15M	93.19M
Operating Cash Flow	446.74M	331.82M	230.66M	-12.00K	96.50M
Investing Cash Flow	240.12M	-260.11M	4.27M	-434.54M	36.85M
Financing Cash Flow	-8.94M	-75.17M	67.12M	41.07M	64.30M

HCI Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 151.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 151.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 164.52, below the 50-day MA of 163.72, and below the 200-day MA of 168.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HCI.

HCI Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HCI	79 Outperform	$1.97B	5.59	38.04%	0.82%	8.71%	17.26%
SKWD	77 Outperform	$1.83B	12.16	18.27%	―	22.51%	2.19%
STC	69 Neutral	$1.75B	17.66	7.08%	2.88%	16.22%	69.80%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
HMN	67 Neutral	$1.68B	11.84	11.52%	3.01%	5.44%	58.05%
ROOT	58 Neutral	$708.85M	27.78	10.96%	―	38.50%	―
PRA	56 Neutral	$1.26B	24.36	3.94%	―	-3.35%	-21.82%

HCI Group Corporate Events

HCI Group CEO Extends Leadership Role and Equity Commitment

On December 9, 2025, Exzeo Group, Inc., a majority-owned subsidiary of HCI Group, executed an executive employment agreement, effective January 1, 2026, to retain Paresh Patel as chief executive officer, aligning his leadership across both Exzeo and HCI Group. The agreement sets Patel’s annual base salary at $950,000 with eligibility for discretionary bonuses, provides 12 months of base-salary severance in certain termination, good reason, or change-of-control scenarios, and includes standard confidentiality, non-solicitation and a two-year U.S. non-compete clause, underscoring the company’s intention to secure long-term executive stability. On December 18, 2025, Patel also adopted a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan to purchase up to 100,000 Exzeo shares or $2 million of stock by December 18, 2026, contingent on price thresholds, signaling a structured commitment to increase his equity stake and potentially aligning his incentives more closely with other shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCI) stock is a Hold with a $190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCI Group stock, see the HCI Stock Forecast page.