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Hologic (HOLX)
NASDAQ:HOLX
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Hologic (HOLX) AI Stock Analysis

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HOLX

Hologic

(NASDAQ:HOLX)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$72.00
▲(8.93%Upside)
Hologic's overall stock score of 70 reflects its strong financial health and strategic growth in its diagnostics segment. The primary concerns are related to revenue declines and geopolitical challenges in China, impacting short-term performance. The valuation is relatively high, which may limit upside potential in the near term. However, the company's low leverage and robust cash flow position provide a buffer against these challenges.
Positive Factors
Financial Stability
HOLX ended its F2Q25 with $1.6B of cash and $2.5B of debt, which positions it favorably in terms of financial stability.
Revenue Growth
Molecular diagnostics showed strong performance, driven by a leading franchise in this area, contributing positively to the company's revenue.
Valuation
With valuation at 14 times forward EPS (well below the 10-year average of 18.0 times), and a path to an acceleration in revenue and earnings growth over the next few quarters, an Outperform rating is reiterated.
Negative Factors
Breast Health Business
Breast Health continues to show pronounced weakness, creating a challenging outlook for the company despite management's efforts to address these issues.
Earnings Guidance
The company has lowered its guidance due to tariffs, China, and USAID funding headwinds, leading to a decrease in expected organizational growth and earnings per share.
Tariff Impact
Tariffs are expected to cause a significant cost headwind of $20-25 million per quarter, affecting the company's surgical and interventional breast products.

Hologic (HOLX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Hologic Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHologic, Inc. (HOLX) is a leading global medical technology company that specializes in women's health. The company develops, manufactures, and supplies diagnostic products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products. Operating primarily in the segments of diagnostics, breast and skeletal health, and gynecological surgical products, Hologic is committed to improving women's health and well-being through innovative medical solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyHologic generates revenue through the sale of its diagnostic products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products. The company's diagnostics segment includes molecular diagnostics and cytology products, which are used for early detection and treatment monitoring of various health conditions. The breast and skeletal health segment provides mammography and other imaging systems critical for the early detection of breast cancer. The gynecological surgical segment offers products for minimally invasive surgical procedures, including devices for tissue removal. In addition to product sales, Hologic earns revenue through service contracts and maintenance agreements associated with its imaging systems. Strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and institutions also play a role in expanding its market reach and enhancing its product offerings.

Hologic Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 15.40%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call reflected a balanced view of Hologic's performance, with strong non-product revenue growth and diagnostics performance offset by challenges such as revenue declines, geopolitical issues in China, and the impact of tariffs.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Non-Product Revenue Growth
Non-product revenue grew by 12%, driven by strong growth in breast health service, which accounted for $212.6 million of overall revenue and represented 21% of total revenue.
Diagnostics Business Performance
Diagnostics revenue grew by 5.2% excluding COVID-related sales, led by molecular diagnostics growth of 7.8%, driven by the BV/CV/TV assay and respiratory assays.
Operating Cash Flow and Financial Flexibility
Generated $169.5 million in operating cash flow and maintained a strong balance sheet with $1.43 billion in cash and equivalents, and an adjusted net leverage ratio of 0.8 times.
Employee Engagement
High employee engagement with scores in the 98th percentile compared to similar companies, and 99% of employees agree that Hologic's mission makes their jobs important.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Total revenue for the quarter was $1.005 billion, a decrease of 0.5% in constant currency, largely impacted by geopolitical tensions and funding cuts in Africa.
Challenges in China
Lowered sales expectations for China due to geopolitical turbulence, with a forecasted $20 million reduction in revenue for the year.
Breast Health Revenue Decline
Breast health revenue declined by 6.9% or 9.2% organically, driven by lower gantry sales following two years of elevated shipments.
Impact of Tariffs
Tariffs increased inventory acquisition costs by $20 million to $25 million per quarter, impacting the income statement and financial forecasts.
Company Guidance
During Hologic's second quarter fiscal 2025 earnings call, several key financial metrics and guidance updates were provided. The company reported total revenue of $1.005 billion, a decrease of 0.5% in constant currency, yet toward the upper end of their guidance range. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.03, aligning with the high end of their guidance and remaining flat year-over-year. The Diagnostics segment saw revenue of $453.6 million, with a 5.2% growth excluding COVID-related sales. Breast Health revenue was $356.2 million, while Surgical revenue increased to $162.5 million. The company highlighted challenges in China, leading to a reduction in sales expectations, and also noted a $20 million to $25 million quarterly impact from tariffs. Despite these headwinds, Hologic maintained its full-year revenue guidance of $4.05 billion to $4.10 billion, adjusting non-GAAP EPS guidance to $4.15 to $4.25. The call emphasized strong growth in non-product revenue, which represented 21% of total revenue, and highlighted strategic initiatives to drive future growth amid macroeconomic challenges.

Hologic Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Hologic demonstrates a solid financial position with strong profitability, low leverage, and robust cash flow metrics. The balance sheet is particularly strong with low debt levels and a high equity ratio. However, revenue growth remains a concern due to slight declines.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Hologic's income statement indicates stability with moderate profitability. The Gross Profit Margin is strong at around 51.7% for TTM, indicating efficient production. The Net Profit Margin is moderate at 13.8%, reflecting decent profitability. However, the TTM Revenue Growth Rate is slightly negative, indicating a decline in revenue compared to the previous annual period. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 17.8% and 20.7% respectively, showing controlled operating costs.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet of Hologic is robust, with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.012, indicating low leverage and strong financial health. The Return on Equity (ROE) is solid at 12.0% for TTM, signifying effective use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio stands at 54.1%, showing a strong equity position relative to total assets, enhancing financial stability.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Hologic demonstrates strong cash flow management. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.87, indicating excellent cash conversion from net income. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is high at 2.03, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative, indicating a decline compared to the previous annual period, which could be a point of concern.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.03B4.03B4.86B5.63B3.78B
Gross Profit2.23B2.07B3.00B3.80B2.23B
EBITDA1.30B1.11B2.11B2.86B1.50B
Net Income789.50M456.00M1.30B1.87B1.12B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.16B9.14B9.07B8.92B7.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.33B2.72B2.34B1.17B701.00M
Total Debt2.66B2.82B2.82B3.03B3.04B
Total Liabilities4.03B4.12B4.20B4.70B4.49B
Stockholders Equity5.13B5.02B4.88B4.22B2.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.15B901.00M2.00B2.17B740.20M
Operating Cash Flow1.29B1.05B2.13B2.33B896.60M
Investing Cash Flow-781.00M-152.10M-206.30M-1.33B-141.60M
Financing Cash Flow-1.11B-483.20M-756.00M-529.80M-659.90M

Hologic Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price66.10
Price Trends
50DMA
62.85
Positive
100DMA
61.23
Positive
200DMA
67.78
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.51
Positive
RSI
60.09
Neutral
STOCH
72.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOLX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 66.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.96, above the 50-day MA of 62.85, and below the 200-day MA of 67.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HOLX.

Hologic Risk Analysis

Hologic disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hologic reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Hologic Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
$40.08B30.6925.81%0.78%9.54%37.23%
73
Outperform
$14.64B35.595.15%6.88%21.11%
72
Outperform
$16.33B35.7017.72%0.30%-1.14%-16.35%
70
Outperform
$14.70B27.8511.77%1.66%21.95%
70
Outperform
$52.33B34.845.97%2.22%5.84%15.12%
60
Neutral
HK$16.84B5.17-7.44%2.89%11.55%-28.15%
56
Neutral
$14.66B136.07-8.96%2.78%-20.17%-138.32%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HOLX
Hologic
66.10
-11.78
-15.13%
BAX
Baxter International
28.77
-5.52
-16.10%
BDX
Becton Dickinson
183.63
-44.68
-19.57%
COO
Cooper Co
73.80
-18.88
-20.37%
RMD
Resmed
273.50
67.02
32.46%
WST
West Pharmaceutical Services
279.10
2.75
1.00%

Hologic Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Hologic Refinances Loan to Enhance Financial Flexibility
Neutral
Jul 18, 2025

On July 15, 2025, Hologic, Inc. and its subsidiaries refinanced their term loan and revolving credit facility by entering into a Refinancing Amendment to their existing Credit and Guaranty Agreement. This amendment extends the maturity date to July 15, 2030, and provides additional financial flexibility under certain covenants, impacting the company’s operational capabilities and financial strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOLX) stock is a Buy with a $90.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hologic stock, see the HOLX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 23, 2025