Hologic (HOLX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.58B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.72M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.10
• Revenue Growth: 1.66%
• EPS Growth: 21.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,063
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 44
• Industry: Medical - Instruments & Supplies
• EPS (TTM): 1.03
• Shares Outstanding: 222,845,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,019,398
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,715,002
• PEG Ratio: -0.91
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.85
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.60
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.82
• 1Y Price Target: $67.36
• Price Target Upside: 22.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Hologic's overall score of 66 reflects a stable but cautious outlook. The company has strong financial health and effective cash flow management, but faces challenges in revenue growth and geopolitical risks, particularly in China. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, though the valuation remains fair. The recent board appointment is a positive strategic move.

Positive Factors

Molecular Diagnostics

Molecular diagnostics showed strong performance, driven by a leading franchise in this area, contributing positively to the company's revenue.

Revenue Performance

F2Q revenue was at the high end of guidance driven by an accelerated recovery of product supply in Skeletal Health.

Negative Factors

Breast Health Challenges

Breast Health continues to show pronounced weakness, creating a challenging outlook for the company despite management's efforts to address these issues.

Guidance and Forecasting

The company has lowered its guidance due to tariffs, China, and USAID funding headwinds, leading to a decrease in expected organizational growth and earnings per share.

Tariff Impact

Tariffs are expected to cause a significant cost headwind of $20-25 million per quarter, affecting the company's surgical and interventional breast products.

Hologic Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hologic, Inc. develops, manufactures, and supplies diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for women's health through early detection and treatment in the United States, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health. The company provides Aptima molecular diagnostic assays to detect the infectious microorganisms; Aptima viral load tests for HIV, Hepatitis C, and Hepatitis B; Aptima SARS-CoV-2 and Panther Fusion SARS-CoV-2 assays for the detection of SARS-CoV-2; ThinPrep System for use in cytology applications; Rapid Fetal Fibronectin Test that assists physicians in assessing the risk of pre-term birth; and various diagnostic tests for the detection of Group B Streptococcus. It also offers breast imaging and analytics, such as 2D and 3D digital mammography systems and reading workstations, minimally invasive breast biopsy guidance systems and devices, breast biopsy site markers and localization, specimen radiology, and ultrasound and connectivity solutions; and breast conserving surgery products. In addition, the company provides NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System for the treatment of abnormal uterine bleeding; MyoSure Hysteroscopic Tissue Removal System for the removal of fibroids, polyps, and other pathology within the uterus; and Fluent Fluid Management System that provides liquid distention during diagnostic and operative hysteroscopic procedures. Further, it offers Horizon DXA, a dual energy X-ray system; and the Fluoroscan Insight FD mini C-arm to perform minimally invasive orthopedic surgical procedures. The company sells its products through direct sales and service forces, and independent distributors and sales representatives. Hologic, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Hologic makes money primarily through the sale of its medical devices and diagnostic products. Key revenue streams include sales from its diagnostics division, which offers a range of testing and detection products for various health conditions, and its breast and skeletal health division, which sells mammography and biopsy systems. The company's gynecological surgical products division also contributes to revenue through the sale of minimally invasive surgical devices. Hologic's earnings are supported by strong partnerships with healthcare providers and institutions, which facilitate the widespread adoption and integration of its technologies into health systems around the world.

Hologic Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hologic shows a solid financial position with strengths in profitability and low leverage. While revenue growth is a concern, the company maintains strong margins and cash flow metrics. Its balance sheet is particularly strong with low debt levels and a high equity ratio, indicating financial stability.

Income Statement

Hologic's income statement indicates stability with moderate profitability. The Gross Profit Margin is strong at around 51.7% for TTM, indicating efficient production. The Net Profit Margin is moderate at 13.8%, reflecting decent profitability. However, the TTM Revenue Growth Rate is slightly negative, indicating a decline in revenue compared to the previous annual period. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 17.8% and 20.7% respectively, showing controlled operating costs.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Hologic is robust, with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.012, indicating low leverage and strong financial health. The Return on Equity (ROE) is solid at 12.0% for TTM, signifying effective use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio stands at 54.1%, showing a strong equity position relative to total assets, enhancing financial stability.

Cash Flow

Hologic demonstrates strong cash flow management. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.87, indicating excellent cash conversion from net income. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is high at 2.03, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative, indicating a decline compared to the previous annual period, which could be a point of concern.

Breakdown
TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.97B	4.03B	4.03B	4.86B	5.63B	3.78B
	Gross Profit
2.02B	2.23B	2.07B	3.00B	3.80B	2.23B
	EBIT
604.20M	970.20M	668.40M	1.64B	2.48B	1.10B
	EBITDA
1.06B	1.30B	1.11B	2.11B	2.86B	1.50B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
515.10M	789.50M	456.00M	1.30B	1.87B	1.12B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.62B	2.33B	2.72B	2.34B	1.17B	701.00M
	Total Assets
8.55B	9.16B	9.14B	9.07B	8.92B	7.20B
	Total Debt
2.53B	2.66B	2.82B	2.82B	3.03B	3.04B
	Net Debt
1.10B	497.80M	95.70M	483.90M	1.85B	2.34B
	Total Liabilities
3.93B	4.03B	4.12B	4.20B	4.70B	4.49B
	Stockholders Equity
4.62B	5.13B	5.02B	4.88B	4.22B	2.71B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
858.70M	1.15B	901.00M	2.00B	2.17B	740.20M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.02B	1.29B	1.05B	2.13B	2.33B	896.60M
	Investing Cash Flow
-215.30M	-781.00M	-152.10M	-206.30M	-1.33B	-141.60M
	Financing Cash Flow
-1.31B	-1.11B	-483.20M	-756.00M	-529.80M	-659.90M

Hologic Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 54.82
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOLX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 54.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.41, below the 50-day MA of 58.61, and below the 200-day MA of 71.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HOLX.

Hologic Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RMD	85 Outperform	$37.15B	28.45	25.81%	0.83%	9.54%	37.23%
COO	68 Neutral	$16.38B	39.41	5.25%	―	7.15%	41.96%
WST	68 Neutral	$15.48B	33.83	17.42%	0.39%	-1.14%	-16.35%
BDX	68 Neutral	$50.63B	33.71	5.97%	2.25%	5.84%	15.12%
HOLX	66 Neutral	$12.58B	23.15	11.77%	―	1.66%	21.95%
BAX	57 Neutral	$16.15B	136.07	-8.96%	2.92%	-20.17%	-138.32%
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.24B	3.07	-43.58%	2.80%	16.87%	-0.11%

Hologic Corporate Events

Hologic Expands Board with New Director Appointment

On April 4, 2025, Hologic, Inc. announced the election of Wayde McMillan to its Board of Directors, expanding the board from eight to nine members. Mr. McMillan, who has extensive experience in financial leadership roles within the med-tech industry, will also serve on the company’s Audit and Finance Committee. This appointment is expected to enhance the board’s financial expertise and support Hologic’s strategic focus on women’s health.

Hologic Announces Leadership Transition with New General Counsel

On February 26, 2025, Hologic announced the retirement of John Griffin, its General Counsel, who will transition to the role of Special Advisor to the Chairman, President, and CEO effective May 1, 2025. Anne Liddy, currently Vice President and Assistant General Counsel, will succeed him as General Counsel. This transition is part of a structured plan to ensure continuity in leadership and operations.