Hologic (HOLX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.73B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.21M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.1
• Beta (1Y): -0.01
• Revenue Growth: 1.74%
• EPS Growth: -25.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,063
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Instruments & Supplies
• EPS (TTM): 1.04
• Shares Outstanding: 223,244,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,324,629
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,205,948
• PEG Ratio: -1.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.16
• 1Y Price Target: $77.00
• Price Target Upside: 2.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $80.00 ▲(6.77% Upside)

The score is supported primarily by strong free cash flow generation and a stable balance sheet, but is held back by the sharp TTM revenue decline and margin compression. Valuation appears less attractive at ~30x earnings given the recent fundamental pressure, while technicals are broadly neutral. Corporate-event risks (merger-related litigation and product recall impact) further weigh on the outlook.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Generation

Sustained, high free cash flow provides durable financial flexibility: funds R&D, capital expenditure, service support and potential buybacks or debt paydown. Strong cash conversion (FCF ~88% of net income) also signals earnings quality and resilience through operating cycles.

Balance Sheet Strength

A moderate leverage profile supports strategic optionality over the medium term: the company can fund M&A, absorb cyclical revenue shocks, and maintain investment in product development or service infrastructure without immediate refinancing stress.

Diversified Women's-Health Franchise

Multiple revenue streams across diagnostics, breast health imaging and surgical products, plus recurring service contracts, create a structurally diversified business. This mix smooths cyclicality, supports stable installed-base service revenue, and underpins long-term competitive positioning in women's health.

Negative Factors

Sharp Revenue Decline

A near-25% TTM revenue decline is a durable headwind that reduces scale economics and constrains reinvestment. Prolonged top-line weakness pressures margins, undermines future R&D and commercialization budgets, and can erode competitive positioning if market share loss persists.

Merger & Product-Recall Overhang

Ongoing stockholder litigation plus a stop-ship/recall on a product representing ~4.7% of Breast Health revenue create structural execution risk. These issues can delay strategic transactions, reduce contingent consideration, and cause sustained sales disruption and customer confidence erosion.

Compensation & Governance Change

Material changes to executive equity award terms can alter incentive alignment and retention dynamics. If new grants increase short-term focus or raise compensation expense, they can affect long-term shareholder alignment and operating discipline, introducing governance uncertainty.

Hologic Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hologic, Inc. develops, manufactures, and supplies diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for women's health through early detection and treatment in the United States, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health. The company provides Aptima molecular diagnostic assays to detect the infectious microorganisms; Aptima viral load tests for HIV, Hepatitis C, and Hepatitis B; Aptima SARS-CoV-2 and Panther Fusion SARS-CoV-2 assays for the detection of SARS-CoV-2; ThinPrep System for use in cytology applications; Rapid Fetal Fibronectin Test that assists physicians in assessing the risk of pre-term birth; and various diagnostic tests for the detection of Group B Streptococcus. It also offers breast imaging and analytics, such as 2D and 3D digital mammography systems and reading workstations, minimally invasive breast biopsy guidance systems and devices, breast biopsy site markers and localization, specimen radiology, and ultrasound and connectivity solutions; and breast conserving surgery products. In addition, the company provides NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System for the treatment of abnormal uterine bleeding; MyoSure Hysteroscopic Tissue Removal System for the removal of fibroids, polyps, and other pathology within the uterus; and Fluent Fluid Management System that provides liquid distention during diagnostic and operative hysteroscopic procedures. Further, it offers Horizon DXA, a dual energy X-ray system; and the Fluoroscan Insight FD mini C-arm to perform minimally invasive orthopedic surgical procedures. The company sells its products through direct sales and service forces, and independent distributors and sales representatives. Hologic, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Hologic generates revenue through multiple key streams, primarily from the sale of medical devices, diagnostic products, and surgical products. The company earns a significant portion of its income from its Diagnostics segment, which includes molecular diagnostics and cytology and histology products. Additionally, the Breast Health segment contributes heavily to revenue through the sale of imaging systems and related services. Hologic also benefits from recurring revenue through its service and maintenance contracts. Strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and research institutions further enhance its earnings potential, alongside the growing demand for women's health services and advancements in medical technology.

Hologic Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong cash generation (TTM OCF ~$1.10B; FCF ~$1.00B; FCF ~88% of net income) and a stable balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.52) support a solid base. The key offset is weaker recent operating momentum: TTM revenue down ~24.9% with margin compression versus prior peak years.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is down sharply (-24.92%), signaling meaningful top-line pressure versus the most recent annual period. Profitability remains solid but has compressed from prior years: TTM gross margin is ~53% and net margin ~13.8%, well below the 2021–2022 peak levels (when margins were materially higher). The business still produces healthy operating profit (TTM operating margin ~19%), but the trajectory shows weaker growth and lower profitability versus the historical run-rate.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable with debt-to-equity around ~0.52 in recent periods and equity at roughly $5.2B supporting a ~$9.2B asset base (TTM). Returns on equity are positive and decent (TTM ~11.7%), though down from the very strong 2021–2022 levels, reflecting lower earnings power. Overall, the balance sheet appears stable, with no obvious signs of strain in the provided leverage and equity metrics.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: TTM operating cash flow is about $1.10B and free cash flow about $1.00B, with positive TTM free cash flow growth (~7.9%). Cash conversion is solid—free cash flow is ~88% of net income TTM—and operating cash flow exceeds net income (about 1.09x), indicating good earnings quality. While annual free cash flow growth has been volatile (including declines in some years), current TTM cash flow performance is strong and supportive.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.10B	4.03B	4.03B	4.86B	5.63B
Gross Profit	2.50B	2.23B	2.07B	3.00B	3.80B
EBITDA	1.02B	1.30B	1.11B	2.11B	2.86B
Net Income	565.70M	789.50M	456.00M	1.30B	1.87B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.01B	9.16B	9.14B	9.07B	8.92B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.20B	2.33B	2.72B	2.34B	1.17B
Total Debt	2.63B	2.66B	2.90B	2.92B	3.14B
Total Liabilities	3.97B	4.03B	4.12B	4.20B	4.70B
Stockholders Equity	5.05B	5.13B	5.02B	4.88B	4.22B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	920.10M	1.15B	901.00M	2.00B	2.15B
Operating Cash Flow	1.06B	1.29B	1.05B	2.13B	2.33B
Investing Cash Flow	-482.70M	-781.00M	-152.10M	-206.30M	-1.33B
Financing Cash Flow	-777.20M	-1.11B	-483.20M	-756.00M	-529.80M

Hologic Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 74.93
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOLX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 74.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.98, above the 50-day MA of 74.84, and above the 200-day MA of 67.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HOLX.

Hologic Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ISRG	78 Outperform	$178.74B	63.98	16.62%	―	22.18%	21.37%
RMD	78 Outperform	$37.70B	25.53	25.68%	0.92%	9.36%	29.56%
BDX	68 Neutral	$57.97B	34.99	6.54%	2.13%	8.23%	-2.04%
WST	68 Neutral	$16.63B	34.23	16.94%	0.32%	4.90%	-0.26%
HOLX	63 Neutral	$16.73B	31.09	10.86%	―	1.74%	-25.29%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
BAX	47 Neutral	$10.32B	-38.49	-4.70%	2.75%	-21.20%	-325.40%

Hologic Corporate Events

Hologic Faces Merger-Related Stockholder Suits, Issues Disclosures

Hologic, Inc. has disclosed that stockholder litigation and demand letters have been filed in January 2026 challenging disclosures in its proxy materials for the planned merger with Hopper Parent Inc., alleging material omissions and seeking to block the shareholder vote, prompting the company—while disputing the claims—to issue supplemental disclosures to reduce the risk of delay or disruption to the transaction. The company also reported that, following a stop-ship order initiated in November 2025 and a subsequent voluntary recall conducted in consultation with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, sales of its Brevera 9 Gauge Needles, which represented about 4.7% of Breast Health revenue in fiscal 2025, are expected to be adversely affected for an extended period, making it harder to meet 2026 revenue milestones tied to contingent value rights and reducing the estimated present value of those instruments, while a separate BioZorb product liability litigation involving roughly 200 plaintiffs reached an insurance-covered settlement in principle in November 2025, formalized on January 7, 2026, that is expected—if contingencies are met—to resolve the substantial majority of those cases without financial liability for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOLX) stock is a Hold with a $78.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hologic stock, see the HOLX Stock Forecast page.

Hologic Updates Restricted Stock Unit Award Agreement

On November 4, 2025, Hologic, Inc.’s Compensation Committee approved a revised form of Restricted Stock Unit Award Agreement, indicating a strategic update in the company’s compensatory arrangements for certain officers. This revision may impact the company’s operational dynamics and could have implications for its stakeholders, reflecting a potential shift in how the company incentivizes its leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (HOLX) stock is a Hold with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hologic stock, see the HOLX Stock Forecast page.