Hologic (HOLX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.56B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.37M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.17
• Revenue Growth: 1.66%
• EPS Growth: 21.95%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,063
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 47
• Industry: Medical - Instruments & Supplies
• EPS (TTM): 1.03
• Shares Outstanding: 222,845,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,880,874
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,370,652
• PEG Ratio: -1.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.42
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.17
• 1Y Price Target: $66.45
• Price Target Upside: 1.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $70.00 ▲(7.20%Upside)

Hologic's solid financial performance and strategic initiatives are offset by challenges in revenue growth and external geopolitical factors. The technical indicators suggest caution due to mixed signals, while valuation appears high. Overall, the company's stable earnings guidance and strong balance sheet provide a balanced outlook.

Positive Factors

Financial stability

HOLX ended its F2Q25 with $1.6B of cash and $2.5B of debt, which positions it favorably in terms of financial stability.

Molecular diagnostics growth

Molecular diagnostics showed strong performance, driven by a leading franchise in this area, contributing positively to the company's revenue.

Valuation and growth outlook

With valuation at 14 times forward EPS (well below the 10-year average of 18.0 times), and a path to an acceleration in revenue and earnings growth over the next few quarters, an Outperform rating is reiterated.

Negative Factors

Breast Health business challenges

Breast Health continues to show pronounced weakness, creating a challenging outlook for the company despite management's efforts to address these issues.

Geopolitical and funding headwinds

The company has lowered its guidance due to tariffs, China, and USAID funding headwinds, leading to a decrease in expected organizational growth and earnings per share.

Tariffs impact

Tariffs are expected to cause a significant cost headwind of $20-25 million per quarter, affecting the company's surgical and interventional breast products.

Hologic Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hologic, Inc. develops, manufactures, and supplies diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for women's health through early detection and treatment in the United States, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health. The company provides Aptima molecular diagnostic assays to detect the infectious microorganisms; Aptima viral load tests for HIV, Hepatitis C, and Hepatitis B; Aptima SARS-CoV-2 and Panther Fusion SARS-CoV-2 assays for the detection of SARS-CoV-2; ThinPrep System for use in cytology applications; Rapid Fetal Fibronectin Test that assists physicians in assessing the risk of pre-term birth; and various diagnostic tests for the detection of Group B Streptococcus. It also offers breast imaging and analytics, such as 2D and 3D digital mammography systems and reading workstations, minimally invasive breast biopsy guidance systems and devices, breast biopsy site markers and localization, specimen radiology, and ultrasound and connectivity solutions; and breast conserving surgery products. In addition, the company provides NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System for the treatment of abnormal uterine bleeding; MyoSure Hysteroscopic Tissue Removal System for the removal of fibroids, polyps, and other pathology within the uterus; and Fluent Fluid Management System that provides liquid distention during diagnostic and operative hysteroscopic procedures. Further, it offers Horizon DXA, a dual energy X-ray system; and the Fluoroscan Insight FD mini C-arm to perform minimally invasive orthopedic surgical procedures. The company sells its products through direct sales and service forces, and independent distributors and sales representatives. Hologic, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Hologic generates revenue through the sale of its diagnostic products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products. The company's diagnostics segment includes molecular diagnostics and cytology products, which are used for early detection and treatment monitoring of various health conditions. The breast and skeletal health segment provides mammography and other imaging systems critical for the early detection of breast cancer. The gynecological surgical segment offers products for minimally invasive surgical procedures, including devices for tissue removal. In addition to product sales, Hologic earns revenue through service contracts and maintenance agreements associated with its imaging systems. Strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and institutions also play a role in expanding its market reach and enhancing its product offerings.

Hologic Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hologic demonstrates solid financial health with a strong balance sheet and effective cash flow management. The company has low leverage and maintains strong margins. However, there are concerns with revenue growth, which has shown a slight decline.

Income Statement

Hologic's income statement indicates stability with moderate profitability. The Gross Profit Margin is strong at around 51.7% for TTM, indicating efficient production. The Net Profit Margin is moderate at 13.8%, reflecting decent profitability. However, the TTM Revenue Growth Rate is slightly negative, indicating a decline in revenue compared to the previous annual period. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy at 17.8% and 20.7% respectively, showing controlled operating costs.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Hologic is robust, with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.012, indicating low leverage and strong financial health. The Return on Equity (ROE) is solid at 12.0% for TTM, signifying effective use of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio stands at 54.1%, showing a strong equity position relative to total assets, enhancing financial stability.

Cash Flow

Hologic demonstrates strong cash flow management. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.87, indicating excellent cash conversion from net income. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is high at 2.03, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative, indicating a decline compared to the previous annual period, which could be a point of concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.03B	4.03B	4.03B	4.86B	5.63B	3.78B
Gross Profit	2.08B	2.23B	2.07B	3.00B	3.80B	2.23B
EBITDA	1.02B	1.30B	1.11B	2.11B	2.86B	1.50B
Net Income	556.70M	789.50M	456.00M	1.30B	1.87B	1.12B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.55B	9.16B	9.14B	9.07B	8.92B	7.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.62B	2.33B	2.72B	2.34B	1.17B	701.00M
Total Debt	2.53B	2.66B	2.82B	2.82B	3.03B	3.04B
Total Liabilities	3.93B	4.03B	4.12B	4.20B	4.70B	4.49B
Stockholders Equity	4.62B	5.13B	5.02B	4.88B	4.22B	2.71B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.04B	1.15B	901.00M	2.00B	2.17B	740.20M
Operating Cash Flow	1.13B	1.29B	1.05B	2.13B	2.33B	896.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-984.60M	-781.00M	-152.10M	-206.30M	-1.33B	-141.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-899.30M	-1.11B	-483.20M	-756.00M	-529.80M	-659.90M

Hologic Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 65.30
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HOLX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 65.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.57, above the 50-day MA of 60.41, and below the 200-day MA of 68.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HOLX.

Hologic Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RMD	85 Outperform	$37.57B	28.77	25.81%	0.83%	9.54%	37.23%
WST	74 Outperform	$15.98B	34.93	17.42%	0.38%	-1.14%	-16.35%
HOLX	70 Outperform	$14.56B	27.57	11.77%	―	1.66%	21.95%
COO	69 Neutral	$14.53B	35.32	5.15%	―	6.88%	21.11%
BDX	68 Neutral	$50.92B	33.90	5.97%	2.34%	5.84%	15.12%
BAX	60 Neutral	$16.03B	136.07	-8.96%	2.18%	-20.17%	-138.32%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.55B	0.30	-61.90%	2.27%	17.11%	1.58%

Hologic Corporate Events

Hologic Expands Board with New Director Appointment

On April 4, 2025, Hologic, Inc. announced the election of Wayde McMillan to its Board of Directors, expanding the board from eight to nine members. Mr. McMillan, who has extensive experience in financial leadership roles within the med-tech industry, will also serve on the company’s Audit and Finance Committee. This appointment is expected to enhance the board’s financial expertise and support Hologic’s strategic focus on women’s health.