Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (9988) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$2.21T
• Dividend Yield: 0.01%
• Average Volume (3M): 87.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.48
• Revenue Growth: 4.74%
• EPS Growth: 73.72%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 124,320
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 68
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 1.69
• Shares Outstanding: 19,082,803,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 107,546,555
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 87,987,502
• PEG Ratio: 1.89
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 30.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$146.70
• Price Target Upside: 24.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: HK$131.00 ▲(11.11%Upside)

Alibaba's strong financial performance and impressive earnings call results, particularly in AI and Cloud growth, are the primary drivers of its high score. Despite some technical resistance and challenges in free cash flow, the company's robust profitability and reasonable valuation support a favorable outlook.

Positive Factors

Cloud Services

Alibaba leads the China cloud services market with a 37% market share, highlighting its dominance in this rapidly growing sector.

E-commerce Growth

International commerce is expected to be a key growth engine, with platforms like AliExpress, Lazada, and Trendyol contributing significantly to revenue.

Revenue Growth

Cloud revenue is expected to grow at an 11% CAGR, driven by increasing demand from public cloud.

Negative Factors

Competitive Pressure

Alibaba lost significant market share to PDD and livestreaming platforms in China, with GMV stabilising but still under pressure from competitors.

Market Share Loss

Alibaba has lost significant market share in China, declining from 52% in 2021 to 42% in 2023, due to competition from PDD and livestreaming platforms.

Regulatory Risks

Policy risks from regulators and intense competition from other ecommerce platforms present ongoing challenges.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through seven segments: China Commerce, International Commerce, Local Consumer Services, Cainiao, Cloud, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. It operates Taobao Marketplace, a social commerce platform; Tmall, a third-party online and mobile commerce platform for brands and retailers; Alimama, a monetization platform; 1688.com and Alibaba.com, which are online wholesale marketplaces; AliExpress, a retail marketplace; Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz that are e-commerce platforms; Freshippo, a self-operated retail chain; and Tmall Global, an import e-commerce platform. The company also operates Taoxianda, an online-offline integration service for FMCG brands and third-party grocery retail partners; Cainiao Network logistic services platform; Ele.me, an on-demand delivery and local services platform; Koubei, a restaurant and local services guide platform; and Fliggy, an online travel platform. In addition, it offers pay-for-performance, in-feed, and display marketing services; and Taobao Ad Network and Exchange, a real-time online bidding marketing exchange. Further, the company provides elastic computing, storage, network, security, database and big data, and IoT services. Additionally, it operates Youku, an online video platform; Alibaba Pictures and other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, news feeds, literature, music, and others; Amap, a mobile digital map, navigation, and real-time traffic information app; DingTalk, a business efficiency mobile app; and Tmall Genie smart speaker. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

Alibaba Group generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is its core commerce segment, which includes online retail and wholesale marketplaces, mainly Taobao, Tmall, and Alibaba.com. These platforms charge merchants for advertising and other value-added services, as well as transaction fees. The cloud computing segment, Alibaba Cloud, contributes significantly to revenue by providing a suite of cloud services including computing, data storage, and AI-driven analytics to enterprises and government organizations. Additionally, Alibaba earns from its digital media and entertainment segment, which includes platforms like Youku and Alibaba Pictures, through subscription fees, advertising, and content distribution. Furthermore, Alibaba has strategic partnerships and investments in various sectors, enhancing its ecosystem and offering avenues for growth and diversification.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alibaba's financial statements demonstrate strong profitability and growth. The income statement reflects a healthy gross profit margin of 39.95% and net profit margin of 13.06%. The balance sheet is robust, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25 and a strong ROE of 12.89%. Cash flow generation is solid, though there is a notable decline in free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Alibaba's income statement reflects strong profitability and growth. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 39.95% and a net profit margin of 13.06% for the latest year, both indicating healthy core operations. Revenue growth rate stood at 5.86%, showcasing positive yet moderate top-line expansion. The EBIT margin of 14.14% and EBITDA margin of 18.33% also demonstrate solid operational efficiency. Overall, Alibaba's income statement portrays a robust financial performance with consistent growth and profitability.

Balance Sheet

Alibaba's balance sheet is characterized by a strong equity position and manageable debt levels. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.25, indicating a conservative leverage approach. Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 12.89%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholders' funds. An equity ratio of 55.97% signifies a healthy capital structure with significant equity backing. The balance sheet indicates financial stability and a strong foundation for future growth.

Cash Flow

Alibaba's cash flow statement shows solid cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.60, indicating efficient conversion of profits into free cash. However, the free cash flow growth rate decreased by 48.20%, highlighting a decline in free cash flow generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.26 implies strong cash flow relative to earnings. While cash flows remain robust, the decline in free cash flow growth warrants attention.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	996.35B	941.17B	868.69B	853.06B	717.29B
Gross Profit	398.06B	354.85B	318.99B	313.61B	296.08B
EBITDA	182.67B	164.01B	153.11B	128.23B	217.96B
Net Income	130.11B	80.01B	72.78B	62.25B	150.58B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.80T	1.76T	1.75T	1.70T	1.69T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	428.09B	571.03B	524.47B	455.08B	483.44B
Total Debt	248.35B	205.61B	161.35B	141.34B	149.15B
Total Liabilities	714.12B	652.23B	630.12B	613.36B	606.58B
Stockholders Equity	1.01T	986.54B	989.66B	948.48B	937.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	77.54B	149.66B	165.40B	89.44B	188.60B
Operating Cash Flow	163.51B	182.59B	199.75B	142.76B	231.79B
Investing Cash Flow	-185.41B	-21.82B	-135.51B	-198.59B	-244.19B
Financing Cash Flow	-76.22B	-108.24B	-65.62B	-64.45B	30.08B

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 117.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9988, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 117.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.21, above the 50-day MA of 113.76, and above the 200-day MA of 105.06, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.68 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:9988.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9988	81 Outperform	HK$2.21T	15.57	13.02%	0.01%	4.74%	73.72%
Sector *	64 Neutral	£1.71B	10.40	6.12%	301.56%	0.55%	-32.84%
MPNGF	―	$99.08B	17.94	23.82%	―	―	―
9618	81 Outperform	HK$410.13B	8.03	19.79%	0.02%	7.67%	90.63%
9991	45 Neutral	HK$1.43B	―	-4.60%	―	5.61%	29.83%

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Corporate Events

Alibaba Sets Record Date for Virtual Annual General Meeting

Alibaba Group Holding Limited has announced the record date for determining eligibility to attend and vote at its upcoming annual general meeting, set for August 5, 2025. The meeting will be held virtually, and shareholders of ordinary shares and American Depositary Shares (ADS) will have specific instructions on how to participate. This announcement highlights the company’s commitment to engaging its shareholders and ensuring their participation in corporate governance, despite the complexities of time zone differences and the weighted voting rights structure that characterizes its shareholding.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Files Form F-4 to Enhance Note Tradability

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced the filing of a Form F-4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, related to an offer to exchange its outstanding senior notes for notes that will be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933. This move aims to enhance the tradability of its securities, potentially impacting the company’s financial operations and providing more flexibility for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Prices HK$12 Billion Exchangeable Bonds to Boost Healthcare Investment

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has announced the pricing of its HK$12.023 billion Zero Coupon Exchangeable Bonds, which are linked to Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited shares. This move is expected to strengthen Alibaba’s position in the healthcare sector, as the bonds can be exchanged for shares of Alibaba Health, a key subsidiary. The bonds are set to mature in 2032, with various redemption options available, reflecting Alibaba’s strategic focus on leveraging its healthcare investments to drive industry transformation.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Announces HK$12 Billion Bond Offering Linked to Alibaba Health

Alibaba Group Holding Limited announced a proposed offering of approximately HK$12 billion in zero coupon exchangeable bonds, linked to its subsidiary Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited. The proceeds from this bond offering are intended for general corporate purposes, including investments in cloud infrastructure and international commerce. This strategic financial move is expected to support Alibaba’s ongoing collaboration with Alibaba Health and drive transformation in the ‘AI + Healthcare’ industry. Additionally, the bond offering may lead to hedging activities that could impact the market price of Alibaba Health shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Announces Share Repurchase Update for Q2 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced a voluntary update on its share repurchase program, revealing that it repurchased 56 million ordinary shares, equivalent to 7 million American depositary shares (ADSs), for a total of US$805 million during the quarter ending June 30, 2025. This move is part of a broader strategy to manage its capital structure and return value to shareholders, with US$19.3 billion remaining authorized for repurchase through March 2027. The announcement reflects Alibaba’s ongoing efforts to optimize its shareholding structure amidst a weighted voting rights framework, which could impact investor perceptions and market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Grants Employee Awards Under 2024 Plan

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced the grant of awards involving 7,687,091 underlying shares to certain employees under its 2024 Plan. These awards, representing approximately 0.04% of the total shares in issue, are part of a weighted voting rights structure and are not subject to shareholder approval. The awards have varied vesting periods, with some vesting within 12 months, and do not include performance targets. A clawback mechanism is in place to ensure compliance with company policies. This grant reflects Alibaba’s strategy to incentivize its workforce and align employee interests with company growth, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Adjusts Conversion Rate for 2031 Senior Notes

Alibaba Group Holding Limited announced an adjustment to the conversion rate of its convertible senior notes due 2031, following the declaration of dividends for fiscal year 2025. This adjustment increases the maximum number of ordinary shares issuable upon full conversion of the notes, potentially impacting shareholder value and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Announces Two-Part Dividend Distribution

Alibaba Group Holding Limited announced a two-part dividend distribution totaling US$0.25 per ordinary share or US$2.00 per ADS, which includes a regular annual cash dividend and a one-time extraordinary cash dividend from the proceeds of business and financial asset dispositions. The record date for the dividend is June 12, 2025, with payments expected around July 3, 2025, for ordinary shares and July 10, 2025, for ADS holders. The announcement highlights the logistics for shareholders and ADS holders, including the temporary suspension of conversions between ordinary shares and ADSs, but assures that trading on stock exchanges will not be affected.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Announces 2024 Plan Awards Grant to Employees

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced the grant of awards pursuant to its 2024 Plan, involving 53,429,597 underlying shares, representing approximately 0.28% of the total shares in issue. These awards are granted to certain employees and are subject to mixed vesting schedules and performance targets, with a clawback mechanism in place for specific events. This move reflects Alibaba’s commitment to incentivizing its workforce and aligning employee performance with the company’s strategic goals, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Files Form SD for Conflict Minerals Disclosure

Alibaba Group Holding Limited has announced the filing of a Form SD with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the year 2024, in compliance with the U.S. Securities Exchange Act. This filing pertains to the use and origin of conflict minerals, such as gold, tantalum, tin, and tungsten, in their products. The announcement highlights Alibaba’s commitment to regulatory compliance and transparency, potentially impacting its reputation and stakeholder trust.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Registers Additional Shares Under 2024 Equity Incentive Plan

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced the filing of a Form S-8 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to register an additional 74.4 million ordinary shares under its 2024 Equity Incentive Plan. This move is part of Alibaba’s strategy to enhance its equity incentive offerings, potentially impacting its stock market performance and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

SoftBank Reports Ownership in Alibaba via SEC Filing

Alibaba Group Holding Limited announced that its shareholder, SoftBank Group Corp., has filed a Schedule 13G with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to report its beneficial ownership in Alibaba as of March 31, 2025. This filing is a regulatory requirement for entities owning more than 5% of a security listed on a U.S. national securities exchange. The announcement underscores the importance of regulatory compliance and transparency in Alibaba’s operations, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Files Form 13F with SEC, Highlights Investment Holdings

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced the filing of a Form 13F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, detailing its holdings in publicly traded companies as an institutional investment manager for the quarter ending March 31, 2025. This filing, required for companies with investment discretion over $100 million in equity securities, highlights Alibaba’s significant role in investment management, despite its primary focus on e-commerce and technology, and underscores its compliance with regulatory requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Announces Special Cash Dividend for 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has announced a special cash dividend of USD 0.11875 per share for the financial year ending March 31, 2025. The dividend reflects Alibaba’s strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders, with the payment date set for July 3, 2025, and the record date on June 12, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Declares Final Dividend for FY2025

Alibaba Group Holding Limited has announced a final ordinary cash dividend of USD 0.13125 per share for the financial year ended March 31, 2025. This announcement reflects Alibaba’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may have implications for the company’s financial strategy and stakeholder confidence. The dividend will be paid on July 3, 2025, with the record date set for June 12, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Reports Robust Growth in Fiscal Year 2025

Alibaba Group announced its financial results for the March quarter and fiscal year 2025, highlighting significant growth driven by its ‘user first, AI-driven’ strategy. The company reported a 7% increase in quarterly revenue and a 36% rise in EBITA, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for the seventh consecutive quarter. Alibaba also repurchased $11.9 billion of shares, reducing outstanding shares by 5.1%, and declared dividends totaling $4.6 billion, reflecting a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$117.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Announces Upcoming Financial Results Release

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has announced a board meeting scheduled for May 14, 2025, to approve its unaudited financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. The results will be publicly announced on May 15, 2025, which could provide insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction, impacting stakeholders and market perception.