Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (9988) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$2.26T
• Dividend Yield: 0.84%
• Average Volume (3M): 80.13M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.47
• Revenue Growth: 3.92%
• EPS Growth: 27.80%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 124,320
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 68
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 1.69
• Shares Outstanding: 19,081,295,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 81,169,732
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 80,132,768
• PEG Ratio: 0.50
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$166.08
• Price Target Upside: 42.44% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: ―

Alibaba is well-positioned for long-term success with strong financial performance, driven by consistent revenue growth and low leverage. Technical analysis indicates a generally bullish trend, despite short-term volatility. The valuation is fair, reflecting moderate growth expectations. The earnings call was positive, highlighting growth in key segments like AI and cloud, although challenges remain in free cash flow and losses in certain areas. Overall, Alibaba's stock presents a solid investment opportunity with room for growth.

Positive Factors

Cloud Services

Alibaba is a leader in the China cloud services market, holding a 37% market share, which is a strong indicator of its dominance and growth potential in the cloud sector.

E-commerce Growth

The company's core e-commerce business is showing signs of recovery, with Taobao and Tmall achieving double-digit growth during the recent Double-11 promotion, suggesting a positive trend.

Revenue Growth

Customer management revenue growth has accelerated to 12% in the March quarter, driven by software fees and increased adoption of Quanzhantui, making it a key share price driver.

Negative Factors

Competition

Intense competition from other e-commerce platforms continues to pose a threat to Alibaba's market position and growth prospects.

Market Share Loss

Alibaba has experienced a significant loss in market share in China, declining from 52% in 2021 to 41% in 2024 due to competition from PDD and livestreaming platforms.

Regulatory Risks

Policy risks from regulators present significant challenges, raising concerns over potential impacts on Alibaba's operations and financial performance.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through seven segments: China Commerce, International Commerce, Local Consumer Services, Cainiao, Cloud, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. It operates Taobao Marketplace, a social commerce platform; Tmall, a third-party online and mobile commerce platform for brands and retailers; Alimama, a monetization platform; 1688.com and Alibaba.com, which are online wholesale marketplaces; AliExpress, a retail marketplace; Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz that are e-commerce platforms; Freshippo, a self-operated retail chain; and Tmall Global, an import e-commerce platform. The company also operates Taoxianda, an online-offline integration service for FMCG brands and third-party grocery retail partners; Cainiao Network logistic services platform; Ele.me, an on-demand delivery and local services platform; Koubei, a restaurant and local services guide platform; and Fliggy, an online travel platform. In addition, it offers pay-for-performance, in-feed, and display marketing services; and Taobao Ad Network and Exchange, a real-time online bidding marketing exchange. Further, the company provides elastic computing, storage, network, security, database and big data, and IoT services. Additionally, it operates Youku, an online video platform; Alibaba Pictures and other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, news feeds, literature, music, and others; Amap, a mobile digital map, navigation, and real-time traffic information app; DingTalk, a business efficiency mobile app; and Tmall Genie smart speaker. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

Alibaba Group primarily generates revenue through its diverse ecosystem of businesses. The company's largest revenue stream is its core commerce segment, which includes retail marketplaces such as Taobao and Tmall, and wholesale marketplaces like Alibaba.com. These platforms earn money through transaction fees, commissions, and advertising services provided to merchants. Beyond e-commerce, Alibaba Cloud contributes significantly to revenue by offering cloud computing services. Digital media and entertainment, including platforms like Youku Tudou, generate income through subscription fees and advertising. Alibaba also invests in strategic partnerships and acquisitions to expand its reach and capabilities, enhancing its revenue potential across sectors.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow

Breakdown
TTM	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021	Mar 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
981.77B	941.17B	868.69B	853.06B	717.29B	509.71B
	Gross Profit
381.01B	354.85B	318.99B	313.61B	296.08B	227.34B
	EBIT
127.20B	113.35B	100.35B	105.30B	170.05B	172.40B
	EBITDA
169.39B	164.01B	153.95B	144.56B	157.50B	185.79B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
120.92B	80.01B	72.78B	32.73B	150.58B	149.43B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
453.28B	571.03B	524.47B	455.08B	483.44B	363.21B
	Total Assets
1.85T	1.76T	1.75T	1.70T	1.69T	1.31T
	Total Debt
231.53B	205.61B	161.35B	141.34B	149.15B	125.43B
	Net Debt
68.74B	-42.51B	-31.73B	-48.55B	-172.11B	-205.07B
	Total Liabilities
760.17B	652.23B	630.12B	613.36B	606.58B	433.33B
	Stockholders Equity
1.00T	986.54B	989.66B	948.48B	937.47B	755.40B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
136.08B	149.66B	165.40B	89.44B	188.60B	135.22B
	Operating Cash Flow
159.33B	182.59B	199.75B	142.76B	231.79B	180.61B
	Investing Cash Flow
-125.60B	-21.82B	-135.51B	-198.59B	-244.19B	-108.07B
	Financing Cash Flow
-126.13B	-108.24B	-65.62B	-64.45B	30.08B	70.85B

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 116.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9988, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 116.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 120.05, below the 50-day MA of 118.52, and above the 200-day MA of 101.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:9988.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
9988	81 Outperform	HK$2.26T	15.90	13.02%	0.84%	3.92%	27.80%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.83B	11.28	2.95%	3.88%	2.70%	-24.56%
TCTZF		$594.71B	21.75	21.25%	0.88%	―	―
MPNGF		$110.38B	20.02	23.82%	―	―	―
9618	80 Outperform	HK$410.79B	8.18	19.79%	2.97%	7.67%	90.63%
1024	80 Outperform	HK$234.50B	15.48	25.82%	―	9.42%	33.34%
9983	65 Neutral	HK$1.49B	6.33	10.96%	8.40%	1.88%	―

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Corporate Events

Alibaba Announces Upcoming Financial Results Release

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has announced a board meeting scheduled for May 14, 2025, to approve its unaudited financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. The results will be publicly announced on May 15, 2025, which could provide insights into the company’s financial health and strategic direction, impacting stakeholders and market perception.

Alibaba Announces Employee Share Awards Under 2024 Plan

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced the grant of awards involving 7,664,079 underlying shares to certain employees under its 2024 Plan. This grant, representing approximately 0.04% of the total shares in issue, is not subject to shareholder approval and does not exceed the individual limit set by the Hong Kong Listing Rules. The awards have a mixed vesting schedule up to six years, with no performance targets attached, and include a clawback mechanism to reclaim shares or benefits under certain conditions.

Alibaba Group Reports Robust Growth in December 2024 Quarter

Alibaba Group announced its financial results for the December Quarter 2024, highlighting substantial progress in its ‘user first, AI-driven’ strategies and re-accelerated growth of its core businesses. Key performance indicators included a 9% growth in customer management revenue at Taobao and Tmall Group and a 13% increase in cloud revenue, bolstered by a significant rise in AI-related product revenue. Financial discipline was maintained with positive EBITA growth and strategic balance sheet management, including non-core asset sales and share buybacks. Overall, the company’s revenue increased by 8% year-over-year to RMB280,154 million, and net income rose by 333% to RMB46,434 million, driven by improved operating efficiency and strategic investments in e-commerce and cloud computing.

Alibaba Announces SoftBank’s Regulatory Filing on Ownership

Alibaba Group Holding Limited announced the filing of a Schedule 13G by its shareholder, SoftBank Group Corp., to report its beneficial ownership in the company as of December 31, 2024. This filing is in compliance with U.S. securities law, which mandates disclosure for entities owning more than 5% of a listed security. This development highlights the ongoing regulatory compliance and shareholder transparency efforts by Alibaba, potentially affecting its market perception and investor relations.

Alibaba Files Form 13F Reflecting Investment Management Role

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced the filing of a Form 13F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the quarter ended December 31, 2024. This filing, required for companies with investment discretion over more than US$100 million in equity securities, reflects Alibaba’s role as an institutional investment manager, despite its primary business not being investment management. The announcement underscores Alibaba’s transparency in its investment activities and may have implications for its stakeholders by providing insights into its investment strategy and holdings.