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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
(9988)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
HK$100.00
▼(-24.07% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/23/26
The score is primarily held back by weakened cash generation and margin pressure in the latest TTM, reinforced by currently bearish technical momentum. Offsetting these risks are an exceptionally low valuation and an earnings outlook showing strong AI/Cloud growth and clear strategic focus, albeit with near-term profitability and free-cash-flow headwinds from elevated investment.
Positive Factors
AI & Cloud Growth
Sustained high-growth in cloud and AI product revenue reflects structural demand for model services and higher‑margin SaaS offerings. Accelerating ARR and token consumption signal durable monetization of proprietary models, supporting revenue diversification and long-term margin potential as adoption widens.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
TTM free cash flow turned negative as operating cash conversion deteriorated, meaning earnings are not translating into cash. Persistent negative FCF limits organic funding for capex and margins can worsen if investments don't ramp revenue quickly, pressuring flexibility over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
AI & Cloud Growth
Sustained high-growth in cloud and AI product revenue reflects structural demand for model services and higher‑margin SaaS offerings. Accelerating ARR and token consumption signal durable monetization of proprietary models, supporting revenue diversification and long-term margin potential as adoption widens.
Read all positive factors
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (9988) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$1.81T
Dividend Yield1.34%
Average Volume (3M)137.35M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.4
Beta (1Y)1.75
Revenue Growth4.59%
EPS Growth-16.23%
CountryHK
Employees124,320
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.69
Shares Outstanding19,206,313,000
10 Day Avg. Volume127,150,115
30 Day Avg. Volume137,353,147
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.86
Price to Sales (P/S)1.93
P/FCF Ratio-38.86
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$185.47Price Target Upside40.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)6.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$1.30T
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, a leading Chinese technology conglomerate, provides crucial digital infrastructure and vast marketing reach to assist merchants, brands, retailers, and other enterprises in connecting with their consumers and users a...
How the Company Makes Money
Alibaba primarily makes money by monetizing commerce activity across its platforms and selling technology services. Its largest revenue streams historically come from (1) China commerce: merchant advertising and marketing services (e.g., performan...
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlights strong and accelerating AI + Cloud momentum (40% cloud growth, sustained triple-digit AI revenue growth, sizeable AI ARR targets and growing MaaS demand), a recovering consumption business on a like-for-like basis (CMR +8) and a healthy cash position with a dividend. Offsetting these positives are significant near-term profitability and cash-flow pressures: total adjusted EBITA declined sharply (-84%), free cash flow was negative (RMB 17.3B), large incremental compute investment needs (potentially 10x 2022 levels) and infrastructure cost inflation. Management frames the deterioration as deliberate, strategic investment to capture a historic AI opportunity and expects margin mix and profitability improvements over the medium term, but near-term financial metrics are pressured.Positive Updates
Group revenue growth
Total consolidated revenue was RMB 243.4 billion, with like-for-like revenue growth of 11% year-over-year (excluding Sun Art and Intime).
Negative Updates
Sharp adjusted EBITA decline at group level
Total adjusted EBITA decreased 84% year-over-year, primarily due to heavy strategic investments in AI/technology businesses, quick commerce and user experience initiatives.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group revenue growth
Total consolidated revenue was RMB 243.4 billion, with like-for-like revenue growth of 11% year-over-year (excluding Sun Art and Intime).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that group revenue grew 11% year‑over‑year to RMB 243.4 billion (11% like‑for‑like excluding Sun Art/Intime), with Cloud Intelligence external revenue accelerating to 40% and AI‑related product revenue—triple‑digit growth for the 11th consecutive quarter—at RMB 9 billion this quarter (annualized run‑rate ~RMB 36 billion / USD 5.3 billion), representing 30% of cloud external revenue and forecast to exceed 50% in about one year; model and application services ARR on the Model Studio/Bailian platform is expected to surpass RMB 10 billion in the June quarter and RMB 30 billion by year‑end (ARR already >RMB 8–10 billion, token consumption >10x since Nov/Dec), cloud adjusted EBITA margin was ~9.1% with management expecting accelerating cloud revenue and margin improvement in 1–2 quarters and material margin uplift over 2–3 years; on consumption, China e‑commerce revenue was RMB 122 billion (+6%) with CMR +1% reported (+8% like‑for‑like), quick commerce revenue rose 57% to RMB 20 billion with order volume 2.7x YoY (non‑food 3x) and UE expected to turn positive by end of FY27 with profitability at scale thereafter; financial posture includes continued heavy AI investment (near‑term free cash flow outflow RMB 17.3 billion vs. operating cash inflow RMB 9.4 billion), net cash of ~USD 38 billion (~USD 59 billion excluding long‑dated debt), a planned ~10x increase in compute capacity vs 2022 (CapEx outlook may exceed prior RMB 380 billion plan), and scaled T‑Head deployment with >60% of certain compute capacity already serving external customers.Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
81
Very Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.02T | 996.35B | 941.17B | 868.69B | 853.06B |
| Gross Profit | 407.53B | 398.06B | 354.85B | 318.99B | 313.61B |
| EBITDA | 186.30B | 207.51B | 164.01B | 153.11B | 128.23B |
| Net Income | 103.59B | 130.11B | 80.01B | 72.78B | 62.25B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.90T | 1.80T | 1.76T | 1.75T | 1.70T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 357.73B | 428.09B | 571.03B | 524.47B | 455.08B |
| Total Debt | 259.13B | 248.11B | 205.61B | 195.57B | 176.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 780.68B | 714.12B | 652.23B | 630.12B | 613.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.06T | 1.01T | 986.54B | 989.66B | 948.48B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -50.72B | 78.16B | 150.82B | 165.52B | 87.95B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 76.21B | 164.82B | 184.01B | 199.90B | 140.39B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -67.34B | -206.61B | -26.27B | -137.20B | -190.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -20.57B | -57.12B | -104.81B | -64.07B | -68.13B |
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
131.70
Price Trends
119.56
Negative
127.83
Negative
142.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-8.13
Positive
29.69
Positive
30.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9988, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 131.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 104.85, above the 50-day MA of 119.56, and below the 200-day MA of 142.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -8.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.69 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:9988.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Risk Analysis
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | HK$1.81T | 14.40 | 10.00% | 1.34% | 4.59% | -16.23% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | HK$285.70B | 18.08 | 6.15% | 3.48% | 12.29% | -67.34% | |
53 Neutral | HK$442.11B | -9.32 | -24.63% | ― | 7.15% | -200.57% | |
53 Neutral | HK$1.31B | -5.80 | -5.06% | ― | 9.86% | -6.00% | |
52 Neutral | HK$28.97B | 8.09 | 18.80% | 3.18% | 30.69% | -13.06% | |
41 Neutral | HK$724.18M | -0.07 | ― | ― | 13.45% | 48.65% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HK:9988
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Corporate Events
Alibaba Rejects U.S. Military Company Label, Sees No Business Impact
Jun 9, 2026
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. said it has been added by the U.S. Department of Defense to its list of Chinese Military Companies, a designation that bars the Pentagon from directly or indirectly procuring goods, services, or technology from the compa...
Alibaba Grants New Employee Share Awards Under 2024 Plan
Jun 1, 2026
Alibaba Group has granted share awards representing about 0.32% of its issued share capital, excluding treasury shares, to certain employees under its 2024 equity incentive plan. The awards, which carry no purchase price and reference a closing sh...
Alibaba files U.S. conflict minerals report and reiterates weighted voting rights structure
May 28, 2026
Alibaba Group Holding Limited has notified investors that it remains classified as a company with a weighted voting rights structure in Hong Kong, where its shares trade under dual counters, while its American depositary shares continue to be list...
Alibaba details 2026 dividend logistics and conversion suspension
May 28, 2026
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has confirmed the logistics for its previously declared annual regular cash dividend for fiscal 2026, set at US$0.13125 per ordinary share or US$1.05 per ADS, payable in U.S. dollars to shareholders and ADS holders of re...
Alibaba Files 2026 Form 20-F, Highlights WVR Structure and Board Line-up
May 20, 2026
Alibaba Group has notified investors that its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and is available on the company’s website in English, with a C...
Alibaba Files Form 13F as Investment Manager, Highlights WVR Structure
May 17, 2026
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. disclosed that it has filed a Form 13F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, in its capacity as an institutional investment manager. The filing reflects Alibaba’s in...
Alibaba Declares Final Cash Dividend for FY2026 on Hong Kong Shares
May 13, 2026
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has declared a final ordinary cash dividend of USD 0.13125 per share for the financial year ended 31 March 2026, payable in U.S. dollars to shareholders on 6 July 2026. The dividend will be distributed to investors on th...
Alibaba Doubles Net Income as AI and Cloud Push Hits Profitability and Cash Flow
May 13, 2026
Alibaba reported results for the March quarter and fiscal year 2026 that underscore its strategic pivot toward artificial intelligence and cloud computing. Management highlighted that full-stack AI investments have moved from incubation to large-s...
Alibaba Sets May Board Meeting to Approve Fiscal 2026 Results
Apr 29, 2026
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. said its board of directors will meet on May 12, 2026 to approve the company’s unaudited financial results for the three months and fiscal year ended March 31, 2026. The company plans to release these results to th...
Alibaba Wins HKEX Approval to Spin Off Infrastructure Assets via SZSE REIT
Apr 27, 2026
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has received approval from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to proceed with a proposed spin-off of certain infrastructure assets via a real estate investment trust listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The spin-off will ce...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.