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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (HK:9988)
:9988
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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (9988) AI Stock Analysis

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HK:9988

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.

(9988)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
HK$195.00
▲(12.07% Upside)
Alibaba's strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives in cloud and AI are significant positives. However, cash flow challenges and overbought technical indicators present risks. The valuation is reasonable but not compelling, and financial pressures from aggressive investments need monitoring.
Positive Factors
Cloud Services Growth
The consistent growth in cloud services, driven by AI product demand, positions Alibaba as a leader in the expanding cloud market, ensuring long-term revenue streams.
Strategic AI Investments
Significant investments in AI and cloud infrastructure enhance Alibaba's competitive edge and innovation capacity, supporting sustained growth and market leadership.
Partnership with SAP
The partnership with SAP strengthens Alibaba's cloud capabilities and expands its reach in enterprise solutions, fostering long-term growth and strategic positioning.
Negative Factors
Decreased Adjusted EBITDA
The decline in adjusted EBITDA indicates financial strain from aggressive investments, potentially impacting profitability and financial flexibility in the near term.
Free Cash Flow Outflow
Significant free cash flow outflow due to high CapEx may limit Alibaba's ability to fund new initiatives and respond to market changes, impacting long-term financial health.
Cash Flow Challenges
Declining free cash flow growth suggests inefficiencies in cash conversion, posing risks to Alibaba's investment capacity and operational sustainability over time.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (9988) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlibaba Group Holding Ltd. (9988) is a leading multinational conglomerate specializing in e-commerce, retail, internet, and technology services. Founded in 1999, the company operates through various segments, including its core commerce platforms, cloud computing, digital media and entertainment, and innovation initiatives. Alibaba's flagship platforms, Taobao and Tmall, are among the largest online marketplaces in China, connecting millions of consumers and merchants. The company is also a significant player in cloud computing through Alibaba Cloud, offering a wide range of services to businesses globally.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlibaba Group generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is its core commerce segment, which includes online retail and wholesale marketplaces, mainly Taobao, Tmall, and Alibaba.com. These platforms charge merchants for advertising and other value-added services, as well as transaction fees. The cloud computing segment, Alibaba Cloud, contributes significantly to revenue by providing a suite of cloud services including computing, data storage, and AI-driven analytics to enterprises and government organizations. Additionally, Alibaba earns from its digital media and entertainment segment, which includes platforms like Youku and Alibaba Pictures, through subscription fees, advertising, and content distribution. Furthermore, Alibaba has strategic partnerships and investments in various sectors, enhancing its ecosystem and offering avenues for growth and diversification.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 29, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant growth in key areas such as cloud services and quick commerce, driven by strategic investments in AI and partnerships. However, the decreased adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow outflow indicate financial pressures from these aggressive investments.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Alibaba reported a 10% year-over-year growth in total revenue on a like-for-like basis, excluding revenue from Sun Art and Intime. Additionally, the China E-commerce Group saw a 10% increase in customer management revenue.
Cloud Intelligence Group Acceleration
Cloud Intelligence Group revenue grew by 26% year-over-year, driven by AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digit growth for the eighth consecutive quarter.
AI and Cloud Strategic Partnerships
Alibaba formed a strategic partnership with SAP, focusing on cloud and AI, highlighting Alibaba Cloud's capabilities in supporting SAP's global cloud computing needs.
Quick Commerce Milestones
Alibaba's quick commerce business achieved significant milestones, reaching nearly 300 million monthly active consumers in August, contributing to a 25% increase in monthly active consumers on the Taobao app.
AI Investments
Alibaba committed RMB 380 billion over the next three years to build its cloud and AI infrastructure, with a current quarter CapEx investment of RMB 38.6 billion in AI and cloud infrastructure.
Negative Updates
Decreased Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 14%, primarily due to increased investments in quick commerce, which offset margin improvements in other areas.
Free Cash Flow Outflow
Free cash flow saw an outflow of RMB 18.8 billion, attributed to increased CapEx in AI and cloud infrastructure and investments in Taobao Instant Commerce.
Company Guidance
During Alibaba Group's June Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call, significant guidance was provided regarding the company's strategic initiatives and financial performance. Excluding Sun Art and Intime, total revenue grew 10% year-over-year, with core business revenue remaining strong. Cloud Intelligence Group saw a 26% revenue increase, driven by AI product demand, marking triple-digit growth for the eighth consecutive quarter. AI-related revenue accounted for over 20% of revenue from external customers. The company announced a strategic partnership with SAP to enhance cloud and AI capabilities. Alibaba plans to invest RMB 380 billion over three years in cloud and AI infrastructure and RMB 50 billion in consumption, reflecting their commitment to these growth areas. Capital expenditures on AI and cloud infrastructure totaled RMB 38.6 billion for the quarter, with cumulative investments exceeding RMB 100 billion over the past year. The company also reported a 25% increase in monthly active consumers on the Taobao app, driven by quick commerce initiatives, and a 10% increase in customer management revenue from its China e-commerce business.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Alibaba's financial statements demonstrate strong performance across income, balance sheet, and cash flow metrics. The company maintains healthy profitability and growth, supported by a stable and well-capitalized balance sheet. Although free cash flow growth has slowed, Alibaba's ability to generate cash remains influential. The financials indicate a well-managed company with solid prospects and a strong market position within the specialty retail industry.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Alibaba's income statement reflects strong profitability and growth. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 39.95% and a net profit margin of 13.06% for the latest year, both indicating healthy core operations. Revenue growth rate stood at 5.86%, showcasing positive yet moderate top-line expansion. The EBIT margin of 14.14% and EBITDA margin of 18.33% also demonstrate solid operational efficiency. Overall, Alibaba's income statement portrays a robust financial performance with consistent growth and profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Alibaba's balance sheet is characterized by a strong equity position and manageable debt levels. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.25, indicating a conservative leverage approach. Return on Equity (ROE) is impressive at 12.89%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholders' funds. An equity ratio of 55.97% signifies a healthy capital structure with significant equity backing. The balance sheet indicates financial stability and a strong foundation for future growth.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Alibaba's cash flow statement shows solid cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.60, indicating efficient conversion of profits into free cash. However, the free cash flow growth rate decreased by 48.20%, highlighting a decline in free cash flow generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.26 implies strong cash flow relative to earnings. While cash flows remain robust, the decline in free cash flow growth warrants attention.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.00T996.35B941.17B868.69B853.06B717.29B
Gross Profit412.15B398.06B354.85B318.99B313.61B296.08B
EBITDA188.35B207.51B164.01B153.11B128.23B217.96B
Net Income146.37B130.11B80.01B72.78B62.25B150.58B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.85T1.80T1.76T1.75T1.70T1.69T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments416.42B428.09B571.03B524.47B455.08B483.44B
Total Debt232.10B248.11B205.61B195.57B176.60B181.44B
Total Liabilities753.77B714.12B652.23B630.12B613.36B606.58B
Stockholders Equity1.01T1.01T986.54B989.66B948.48B937.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow25.90B77.54B149.66B165.40B89.44B188.60B
Operating Cash Flow150.54B163.51B182.59B199.75B142.76B231.79B
Investing Cash Flow-131.26B-185.41B-21.82B-135.51B-198.59B-244.19B
Financing Cash Flow-59.36B-76.22B-108.24B-65.62B-64.45B30.08B

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price174.00
Price Trends
50DMA
128.96
Positive
100DMA
121.61
Positive
200DMA
113.38
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
11.27
Negative
RSI
81.14
Negative
STOCH
84.52
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9988, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 174 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 144.76, above the 50-day MA of 128.96, and above the 200-day MA of 113.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.14 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:9988.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Risk Analysis

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
425.49B9.3017.02%2.95%14.18%32.25%
74
Outperform
HK$3.32T18.5015.15%1.13%5.08%127.82%
64
Neutral
624.55B19.4016.01%17.67%33.64%
57
Neutral
1.93B-9.54-4.73%7.51%30.41%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HK:9988
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
174.00
77.86
80.99%
MPNGF
Meituan
13.04
-6.74
-34.07%
HK:9618
JD.com, Inc. Class A
133.00
-1.99
-1.47%
HK:9991
Baozun, Inc. Class A
11.40
4.46
64.27%

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Corporate Events

Alibaba Sets Record Date for Virtual Annual General Meeting
Jul 22, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Limited has announced the record date for determining eligibility to attend and vote at its upcoming annual general meeting, set for August 5, 2025. The meeting will be held virtually, and shareholders of ordinary shares and American Depositary Shares (ADS) will have specific instructions on how to participate. This announcement highlights the company’s commitment to engaging its shareholders and ensuring their participation in corporate governance, despite the complexities of time zone differences and the weighted voting rights structure that characterizes its shareholding.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Files Form F-4 to Enhance Note Tradability
Jul 21, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced the filing of a Form F-4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, related to an offer to exchange its outstanding senior notes for notes that will be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933. This move aims to enhance the tradability of its securities, potentially impacting the company’s financial operations and providing more flexibility for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Prices HK$12 Billion Exchangeable Bonds to Boost Healthcare Investment
Jul 3, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has announced the pricing of its HK$12.023 billion Zero Coupon Exchangeable Bonds, which are linked to Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited shares. This move is expected to strengthen Alibaba’s position in the healthcare sector, as the bonds can be exchanged for shares of Alibaba Health, a key subsidiary. The bonds are set to mature in 2032, with various redemption options available, reflecting Alibaba’s strategic focus on leveraging its healthcare investments to drive industry transformation.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Announces HK$12 Billion Bond Offering Linked to Alibaba Health
Jul 3, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Limited announced a proposed offering of approximately HK$12 billion in zero coupon exchangeable bonds, linked to its subsidiary Alibaba Health Information Technology Limited. The proceeds from this bond offering are intended for general corporate purposes, including investments in cloud infrastructure and international commerce. This strategic financial move is expected to support Alibaba’s ongoing collaboration with Alibaba Health and drive transformation in the ‘AI + Healthcare’ industry. Additionally, the bond offering may lead to hedging activities that could impact the market price of Alibaba Health shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Announces Share Repurchase Update for Q2 2025
Jul 2, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced a voluntary update on its share repurchase program, revealing that it repurchased 56 million ordinary shares, equivalent to 7 million American depositary shares (ADSs), for a total of US$805 million during the quarter ending June 30, 2025. This move is part of a broader strategy to manage its capital structure and return value to shareholders, with US$19.3 billion remaining authorized for repurchase through March 2027. The announcement reflects Alibaba’s ongoing efforts to optimize its shareholding structure amidst a weighted voting rights framework, which could impact investor perceptions and market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Grants Employee Awards Under 2024 Plan
Jun 16, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced the grant of awards involving 7,687,091 underlying shares to certain employees under its 2024 Plan. These awards, representing approximately 0.04% of the total shares in issue, are part of a weighted voting rights structure and are not subject to shareholder approval. The awards have varied vesting periods, with some vesting within 12 months, and do not include performance targets. A clawback mechanism is in place to ensure compliance with company policies. This grant reflects Alibaba’s strategy to incentivize its workforce and align employee interests with company growth, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Adjusts Conversion Rate for 2031 Senior Notes
Jun 12, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Limited announced an adjustment to the conversion rate of its convertible senior notes due 2031, following the declaration of dividends for fiscal year 2025. This adjustment increases the maximum number of ordinary shares issuable upon full conversion of the notes, potentially impacting shareholder value and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Announces Two-Part Dividend Distribution
May 29, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Limited announced a two-part dividend distribution totaling US$0.25 per ordinary share or US$2.00 per ADS, which includes a regular annual cash dividend and a one-time extraordinary cash dividend from the proceeds of business and financial asset dispositions. The record date for the dividend is June 12, 2025, with payments expected around July 3, 2025, for ordinary shares and July 10, 2025, for ADS holders. The announcement highlights the logistics for shareholders and ADS holders, including the temporary suspension of conversions between ordinary shares and ADSs, but assures that trading on stock exchanges will not be affected.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Announces 2024 Plan Awards Grant to Employees
May 26, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced the grant of awards pursuant to its 2024 Plan, involving 53,429,597 underlying shares, representing approximately 0.28% of the total shares in issue. These awards are granted to certain employees and are subject to mixed vesting schedules and performance targets, with a clawback mechanism in place for specific events. This move reflects Alibaba’s commitment to incentivizing its workforce and aligning employee performance with the company’s strategic goals, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Files Form SD for Conflict Minerals Disclosure
May 23, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Limited has announced the filing of a Form SD with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the year 2024, in compliance with the U.S. Securities Exchange Act. This filing pertains to the use and origin of conflict minerals, such as gold, tantalum, tin, and tungsten, in their products. The announcement highlights Alibaba’s commitment to regulatory compliance and transparency, potentially impacting its reputation and stakeholder trust.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Registers Additional Shares Under 2024 Equity Incentive Plan
May 19, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced the filing of a Form S-8 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to register an additional 74.4 million ordinary shares under its 2024 Equity Incentive Plan. This move is part of Alibaba’s strategy to enhance its equity incentive offerings, potentially impacting its stock market performance and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

SoftBank Reports Ownership in Alibaba via SEC Filing
May 19, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Limited announced that its shareholder, SoftBank Group Corp., has filed a Schedule 13G with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to report its beneficial ownership in Alibaba as of March 31, 2025. This filing is a regulatory requirement for entities owning more than 5% of a security listed on a U.S. national securities exchange. The announcement underscores the importance of regulatory compliance and transparency in Alibaba’s operations, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Files Form 13F with SEC, Highlights Investment Holdings
May 15, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. announced the filing of a Form 13F with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, detailing its holdings in publicly traded companies as an institutional investment manager for the quarter ending March 31, 2025. This filing, required for companies with investment discretion over $100 million in equity securities, highlights Alibaba’s significant role in investment management, despite its primary focus on e-commerce and technology, and underscores its compliance with regulatory requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Announces Special Cash Dividend for 2025
May 15, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has announced a special cash dividend of USD 0.11875 per share for the financial year ending March 31, 2025. The dividend reflects Alibaba’s strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders, with the payment date set for July 3, 2025, and the record date on June 12, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Declares Final Dividend for FY2025
May 15, 2025

Alibaba Group Holding Limited has announced a final ordinary cash dividend of USD 0.13125 per share for the financial year ended March 31, 2025. This announcement reflects Alibaba’s commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may have implications for the company’s financial strategy and stakeholder confidence. The dividend will be paid on July 3, 2025, with the record date set for June 12, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$106.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Alibaba Reports Robust Growth in Fiscal Year 2025
May 15, 2025

Alibaba Group announced its financial results for the March quarter and fiscal year 2025, highlighting significant growth driven by its ‘user first, AI-driven’ strategy. The company reported a 7% increase in quarterly revenue and a 36% rise in EBITA, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for the seventh consecutive quarter. Alibaba also repurchased $11.9 billion of shares, reducing outstanding shares by 5.1%, and declared dividends totaling $4.6 billion, reflecting a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9988) stock is a Buy with a HK$117.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9988 Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 25, 2025