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Trip.com Group Ltd.
(9961)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
HK$350.00
▼(-11.97% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, rapid revenue growth, and improving leverage) and attractive valuation (very low P/E). These positives are meaningfully offset by weak technicals (price below all major moving averages with bearish momentum) and a more cautious near-term outlook from the latest earnings call (moderated Q2 guidance and macro/regulatory headwinds).
Positive Factors
Revenue growth & high gross margins
Sustained multi-year revenue recovery and very high gross margins indicate durable platform economics: scalable take-rates, strong supplier relationships, and pricing power that support long-term operating leverage and reinvestment capacity even through cyclical travel demand.
Negative Factors
Declining free cash flow
Falling free cash flow and uncertain cash-to-earnings conversion weaken earnings quality and constrain capital allocation flexibility. If cash conversion remains volatile, it can limit dividends, buybacks, or growth investments and increase sensitivity to margin normalization.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth & high gross margins
Sustained multi-year revenue recovery and very high gross margins indicate durable platform economics: scalable take-rates, strong supplier relationships, and pricing power that support long-term operating leverage and reinvestment capacity even through cyclical travel demand.
Read all positive factors
Trip.com Group Ltd. (9961) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$213.73B
Dividend Yield0.41%
Average Volume (3M)1.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.7
Beta (1Y)1.30
Revenue Growth19.46%
EPS Growth87.43%
CountryHK
Employees41,073
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)48.05
Shares Outstanding689,450,260
10 Day Avg. Volume2,046,221
30 Day Avg. Volume1,902,875
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)2.03
Price to Sales (P/S)5.57
P/FCF Ratio25.59
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$485.10Price Target Upside22.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)27.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$78.17B
Trip.com Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trip.com Group Limited, a leading global travel service provider established in 1999 and based in Shanghai, China, offers an extensive range of travel and related solutions to customers worldwide. The company serves as a booking agent for accommod...
How the Company Makes Money
Trip.com Group primarily generates revenue by facilitating travel bookings and charging for its role in helping customers search, compare, reserve, and purchase travel products and services. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Accommodation...
Trip.com Group Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 24, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong top-line growth, robust inbound and international demand, margin expansion (adjusted EBITDA +~14% YoY), a healthy cash position (RMB 104 billion), record mobile engagement, and rapid growth in high-potential categories (entertainment-driven travel, senior travel, small-group tours). These positives are tempered by nearer-term headwinds: moderated Q2 guidance (3%–8% YoY), higher airfares and capacity constraints impacting long-haul demand, ongoing regulatory reviews and train-ticketing adjustments, and increased marketing/investment spend. Overall the company demonstrates solid underlying momentum and constructive strategic investments (notably in AI and inbound travel), while acknowledging macro and regulatory factors that may moderate short-term growth.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Group net revenue of RMB 16.2 billion in Q1 2026, a 17% year-over-year increase; core OTA gross bookings of ~RMB 300 billion for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Moderated Q2 Revenue Guidance
Q2 2026 net revenue growth expected to be ~3%–8% YoY, a material moderation versus Q1's strong growth, reflecting softer near-term demand and operational adjustments.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Group net revenue of RMB 16.2 billion in Q1 2026, a 17% year-over-year increase; core OTA gross bookings of ~RMB 300 billion for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Trip.com guided Q2 net revenue growth of approximately 3%–8% year‑over‑year, a moderation from Q1’s 17% YoY increase when Group net revenue was RMB 16.2 billion (core OTA gross bookings ~RMB 300 billion); management said the outlook reflects higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions driving up airfares and tightening airline capacity—especially on long‑haul routes—and the near‑term impact of operational/compliance upgrades (partially reflected in the Q2 range). For context, Q1 highlights cited on the call include inbound gross bookings +90% YoY (≈7 million inbound travelers in Q1 vs ~20 million in FY2025 and a five‑year target of 200 million), international OTA gross bookings +65% YoY, accommodation revenue RMB 6.5bn (+17% YoY), transportation ticketing revenue RMB 6.1bn (+12%), package tour revenue RMB 1.1bn (+19%), corporate travel RMB 690m (+20%), adjusted EBITDA RMB 4.8bn (vs RMB 4.2bn a year ago), diluted EPS RMB 3.67 ($0.53) and non‑GAAP diluted EPS RMB 5.73 ($0.83), cash and short‑term liquidity RMB 104.0bn ($15.1bn), plus product/supply metrics (≈450k hotels, 180k attraction products; >110k suppliers engaged; ~14k first‑time inbound suppliers); management emphasized limited visibility into H2 and prudent, ROI‑driven investment while balancing near‑term discipline.Trip.com Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 64.64B | 62.41B | 53.29B | 44.51B | 20.04B | 20.02B |
| Gross Profit | 51.92B | 50.29B | 43.30B | 36.39B | 15.53B | 15.43B |
| EBITDA | 36.25B | 16.61B | 14.99B | 12.14B | 960.00M | -393.00M |
| Net Income | 31.49B | 33.29B | 17.07B | 9.92B | 1.40B | -550.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 262.33B | 267.50B | 242.58B | 219.14B | 191.69B | 191.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 80.75B | 78.49B | 76.91B | 59.34B | 42.55B | 49.38B |
| Total Debt | 31.27B | 31.95B | 40.32B | 45.57B | 46.66B | 51.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 96.17B | 94.83B | 99.10B | 96.13B | 78.67B | 81.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 164.58B | 171.02B | 142.55B | 122.18B | 112.28B | 109.68B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 13.58B | 13.58B | 19.03B | 21.40B | 2.14B | 1.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.38B | 14.38B | 19.63B | 22.00B | 2.64B | 2.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.18B | -4.18B | -6.05B | 5.92B | 1.14B | -4.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -14.66B | -14.66B | -6.71B | -2.55B | -6.72B | 3.92B |
Trip.com Group Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
397.60
Price Trends
378.52
Negative
396.56
Negative
475.98
Negative
Market Momentum
-17.66
Positive
37.42
Neutral
27.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9961, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 397.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 350.64, above the 50-day MA of 378.52, and below the 200-day MA of 475.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -17.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:9961.
Trip.com Group Ltd. Risk Analysis
Trip.com Group Ltd. disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trip.com Group Ltd. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We have limited business insurance coverage. Q4, 2023
Trip.com Group Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | HK$213.73B | 5.72 | 21.02% | 0.41% | 19.46% | 87.43% | |
69 Neutral | HK$101.23M | 1.01 | 5.15% | ― | 16.98% | -30.25% | |
69 Neutral | HK$28.37B | 9.80 | 11.12% | 0.79% | 14.21% | 10.38% | |
66 Neutral | HK$105.03M | 187.27 | 0.78% | 4.55% | 40.65% | 78.79% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | HK$79.00M | 8.04 | 16.42% | ― | 48.36% | -16.82% | |
55 Neutral | HK$398.00M | 21.45 | 12.44% | ― | -1.97% | -57.63% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HK:9961
Trip.com Group Ltd.
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Trip.com Group Ltd. Corporate Events
Trip.com Group Q1 2026 Revenue Jumps 17% on Surging International and Inbound Travel
Jun 24, 2026
Trip.com Group reported unaudited first-quarter 2026 net revenues of RMB16.2 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase driven by resilient travel demand and strong performance across its core services. The company’s international business was a...
Trip.com Group Sets June 25 Release for Q1 2026 Results
Jun 11, 2026
Trip.com Group Limited has scheduled an audit committee meeting for June 24, 2026, to review and approve its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, with the results set to be released before trading on the Hong Kong Stock Ex...
Trip.com Group Sets 2026 AGM to Vote on Board Re-elections
May 27, 2026
Trip.com Group Limited has called its annual general meeting for June 30, 2026 in Singapore, where shareholders of record as of May 29, 2026 will be eligible to attend and vote. The agenda is narrowly focused on the proposed re-election of indepen...
Trip.com Sets Record Date for 2026 AGM and Outlines Voting Rules for ADS Holders
May 14, 2026
Trip.com Group Limited has set May 29, 2026, as the record date for determining which holders of its ordinary shares are eligible to attend and vote at its upcoming annual general meeting, with share transfer documents due by 4:30 p.m. that day in...
Trip.com Group Files 2025 Form 20-F With U.S. SEC
Apr 28, 2026
Trip.com Group Limited has announced that it has filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing, made pursuant to Hong Kong listing rules, is available ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.