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Trip.com Group Ltd. (HK:9961)
:9961

Trip.com Group Ltd. (9961) AI Stock Analysis

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HK

Trip.com Group Ltd.

(9961)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
HK$537.00
▲(15.04%Upside)
Trip.com Group Ltd. is performing well, driven by strong earnings call optimism and solid financial performance. However, challenges in cash flow management and moderate technical indicators temper the overall score.
Positive Factors
Market Position
The stock is trading at an attractive price compared to competitors with a slower growth profile.
Profit Margin
Call centre automation and stabilising hotel ADR trends are expected to support a stable net profit margin.
Revenue Growth
The international Trip.com platform maintained robust growth, with bookings up 60% y/y, supported by favourable policies.
Negative Factors
Earnings Margin
Overall marketing expense ratio is expected to rise on international business expansion, leading to a 3ppt drag in overall non-GAAP earnings margin in FY25F.
Market Competition
Irrational market competition could lead to higher subsidies, posing a risk.

Trip.com Group Ltd. (9961) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

Trip.com Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrip.com Group Limited operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours and in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. The company acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. It also provides independent leisure travelers bundled packaged-tour products comprising group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, such as air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, the company offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; destination transportation and ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, it provides its corporate clients with business visit, incentive trip, meeting and conference, travel data collection and analysis, industry benchmark, cost saving analysis, and travel management solutions; and Corporate Travel Management System, an online platform that integrates information management, online booking and authorization, online enquiry, and travel reporting systems. Additionally, the company offers online advertising and financial services. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner brands. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrip.com Group Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the provision of travel-related services. Its key revenue streams include commissions from hotel reservations, transportation ticketing (including flights and train tickets), and package tours. The company also earns from service fees charged to customers and suppliers. Trip.com Group has strategic partnerships with global airlines, hotels, and other travel service providers, which enhance its service offerings and contribute to its revenue. Additionally, the company benefits from its investment in technology and data analytics, which allows it to offer personalized travel services and improve customer experience, further driving sales and profitability.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 19, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -9.71%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 18, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment overall, with strong growth in inbound travel, revenue, and AI integration. Despite some challenges like a decline in corporate travel revenue and muted hotel ADR performance, Trip.com has shown resilience and strategic growth, especially in international markets and AI-driven customer service.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Inbound Travel Surge
Inbound travel bookings surged by approximately 100% year-over-year, with South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia emerging as some of the fastest-growing source markets.
Strong Revenue Growth
Net revenue increased by 16% year-over-year, reflecting solid momentum across Trip.com's business.
AI Integration Success
The AI agent, TripGenie, saw a 50% increase in average user session duration, and AI tools handled over 80% of inquiries, improving response times and customer satisfaction.
International OTA Platform Growth
Overall travel bookings on the international OTA platform grew by over 60% year-over-year, with APAC as a major growth engine.
Domestic Travel Demand
Domestic hotel bookings in China continued to see double-digit growth year-over-year, demonstrating robust local travel demand.
Financial Stability
As of March 31, 2025, the balance of cash and cash equivalents was RMB92.9 billion or $12.8 billion.
Share Repurchase Program
The company repurchased approximately $84 million of its shares, showing a commitment to delivering value to shareholders.
Negative Updates
Corporate Travel Revenue Decline
Corporate travel revenue for the first quarter decreased by 18% quarter-over-quarter, in line with normal seasonality.
Muted Hotel ADR Performance
Hotel ADR decreased by high single digits in the first quarter compared to last year.
Inbound Travel Contribution
Inbound travel remains a low single-digit group revenue despite over 100% year-over-year growth.
Company Guidance
During the Trip.com Group's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the management provided optimistic guidance for the second quarter, emphasizing the company's strategic advantages and growth momentum. Key metrics highlighted include a 16% year-over-year increase in net revenue and a 7% year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA for Q1. Inbound travel bookings surged by approximately 100% year-over-year, with strong contributions from visa-free regions like South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The mobile platform accounted for 70% of international bookings, underlining the shift to app-based travel planning. Trip.com also reported a robust 60% year-over-year increase in overall travel bookings on its international platform. The company emphasized its strategic focus on AI, with AI tools like TripGenie enhancing user engagement and handling over 80% of inquiries. For the full year, the company remains confident in capturing long-term growth opportunities, despite the dynamic economic environment and geopolitical tensions.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Trip.com Group Ltd. demonstrates robust profitability and revenue growth, with a solid balance sheet indicating strong financial stability. However, recent cash flow challenges highlight potential liquidity risks.
Income Statement
87
Very Positive
Trip.com Group Ltd. has demonstrated robust growth in its income statement. The gross profit margin is high, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin and EBIT margin have improved significantly from previous years, showcasing enhanced profitability. The revenue growth rate is impressive, reflecting strong business momentum.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet shows a healthy equity ratio, indicating strong capitalization. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, suggesting a balanced leverage position. However, there has been a noticeable increase in stockholders' equity, which strengthens the financial stability of the company.
Cash Flow
62
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with operating cash flow at zero in the most recent period, indicating potential cash management issues. Historical free cash flow has grown, but the recent absence of free cash flow highlights potential concerns in liquidity and cash generation capabilities.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
53.29B44.51B20.04B20.02B18.32B
Gross Profit
43.30B36.39B15.53B15.43B14.29B
EBIT
14.18B11.32B2.86B-319.00M-1.07B
EBITDA
14.99B12.14B4.15B1.09B491.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
17.07B9.92B1.95B-741.00M-1.58B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
79.57B59.34B44.03B50.76B44.23B
Total Assets
242.58B219.14B191.69B191.86B187.25B
Total Debt
40.32B45.57B46.38B51.36B57.00B
Net Debt
-10.96B3.98B27.90B30.16B37.59B
Total Liabilities
99.10B96.13B78.67B81.40B85.68B
Stockholders Equity
142.55B122.18B112.28B109.68B100.35B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
19.03B21.40B2.14B1.90B-4.36B
Operating Cash Flow
19.63B22.00B2.64B2.48B-3.82B
Investing Cash Flow
-6.05B5.92B1.14B-4.15B-3.82B
Financing Cash Flow
-6.71B-2.55B-6.72B3.92B6.03B

Trip.com Group Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price466.80
Price Trends
50DMA
478.34
Negative
100DMA
493.10
Negative
200DMA
478.02
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
1.04
Positive
RSI
41.58
Neutral
STOCH
11.39
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9961, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 466.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 497.50, below the 50-day MA of 478.34, and below the 200-day MA of 478.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 1.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:9961.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Risk Analysis

Trip.com Group Ltd. disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trip.com Group Ltd. reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We have limited business insurance coverage. Q4, 2023

Trip.com Group Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
HK$307.74B17.5012.48%0.50%15.77%55.52%
62
Neutral
$6.88B11.322.90%3.87%2.70%-24.57%
$594.64B21.8421.25%0.88%
$10.37B42.636.14%1.32%
$110.38B20.0223.82%
81
Outperform
HK$2.22T15.6713.02%0.84%3.92%27.80%
76
Outperform
HK$49.66B19.9211.72%0.70%34.16%40.10%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HK:9961
Trip.com Group Ltd.
466.80
65.61
16.35%
TCTZF
Tencent Holdings
65.71
18.38
38.83%
SBMFF
Sino Biopharmaceutical
0.58
0.21
56.76%
MPNGF
Meituan
18.48
4.42
31.44%
HK:9988
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
116.60
41.77
55.82%
HK:0780
Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited
21.25
3.93
22.69%

Trip.com Group Ltd. Corporate Events

Trip.com Group Reports Strong Q1 2025 Growth
May 19, 2025

Trip.com Group Limited reported robust growth in its international businesses for the first quarter of 2025, with overall reservations on its international OTA platform increasing by over 60% year-over-year. The company saw a significant surge in inbound travel bookings and outbound hotel and air ticket bookings surpassing pre-COVID levels. The company’s net revenue for the quarter reached RMB13.8 billion, marking a 16% increase from the same period in 2024, driven by strong travel demand and favorable travel policies. The company remains committed to delivering innovative and customer-centric solutions to sustain growth and provide value to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9961) stock is a Buy with a HK$550.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trip.com Group Ltd. stock, see the HK:9961 Stock Forecast page.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Announces Key Resolutions for Upcoming AGM
May 19, 2025

Trip.com Group Ltd. has announced its upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM) scheduled for June 30, 2025, in Shanghai. Key resolutions to be considered include the re-election of Mr. Rong Luo as a director and the authorization for the Board to repurchase up to 10% of the company’s shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This move could potentially impact the company’s stock value and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9961) stock is a Buy with a HK$550.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trip.com Group Ltd. stock, see the HK:9961 Stock Forecast page.

Trip.com Group Announces Record Date for Shareholders’ Meeting
May 15, 2025

Trip.com Group Ltd. has announced the record date for determining the eligibility of shareholders to attend and vote at its upcoming annual general meeting. The record date is set for May 30, 2025, with specific instructions for holders of ordinary shares and American depositary shares (ADSs) on how to participate. This announcement is crucial for shareholders as it outlines the procedural details necessary for their involvement in the company’s governance, potentially impacting their investment decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9961) stock is a Buy with a HK$600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trip.com Group Ltd. stock, see the HK:9961 Stock Forecast page.

Trip.com Group Ltd. to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results
May 6, 2025

Trip.com Group Ltd. has announced that its audit committee will meet on May 16, 2025, to approve the financial results for the first quarter of 2025, which will be published on May 20, 2025. The company will also host a conference call on May 19, 2025, to discuss these results, indicating a transparent approach to stakeholder communication and potentially impacting investor relations positively.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Files 2024 Annual Report with SEC
Apr 11, 2025

Trip.com Group Ltd. has filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This filing is part of their regulatory compliance as a publicly listed company on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reflecting their commitment to transparency and providing stakeholders with insights into their financial performance and strategic direction.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.