Trip.com Group Ltd. (HK:9961)
:9961
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Trip.com Group Ltd.
(9961)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
HK$504.00
▲(29.03% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/16/26
The score is driven by strong fundamental performance (profitability and revenue growth) and a constructive earnings outlook, tempered by recent cash flow weakness and a notably weak technical trend with the stock trading below major moving averages.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
Consistent 16% YoY revenue growth signals durable demand recovery across Trip.com’s platforms and validates the end-to-end booking model. Over 2–6 months, steady top-line growth supports scale advantages, margin leverage, and reinvestment capacity for product and geographic expansion.
Negative Factors
Operating Cash Flow Weakness
A recent operating cash flow of zero indicates weakened cash generation despite profit growth, which can constrain funding for growth initiatives, require external financing, or force tighter working-capital management. This reduces strategic flexibility over the coming months if not rectified.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
Consistent 16% YoY revenue growth signals durable demand recovery across Trip.com’s platforms and validates the end-to-end booking model. Over 2–6 months, steady top-line growth supports scale advantages, margin leverage, and reinvestment capacity for product and geographic expansion.
Read all positive factors
Trip.com Group Ltd. (9961) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$257.50B
Dividend Yield0.41%
Average Volume (3M)1.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.1
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth17.13%
EPS Growth91.48%
CountryHK
Employees41,073
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.68
Shares Outstanding689,450,260
10 Day Avg. Volume2,046,221
30 Day Avg. Volume1,902,875
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)2.33
Price to Sales (P/S)6.22
P/FCF Ratio17.43
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$585.93Price Target Upside50.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)31.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$80.72B
Trip.com Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trip.com Group Limited operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours and in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. T...
How the Company Makes Money
Trip.com Group generates revenue primarily through a commission-based model, earning fees for each booking made through its platform. The key revenue streams include commissions from hotel and flight bookings, advertising fees from travel-related ...
Trip.com Group Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a clearly positive operational and financial picture: solid top-line growth (net revenue +17% YoY, Q4 +21%), strong international and inbound momentum (international gross bookings +~60% YoY; ~20 million inbound travelers), healthy cash balance and continued shareholder returns. At the same time, management flagged material risks — an active SAMR investigation and meaningful step-up in marketing and operating investments (S&M +30% YoY in Q4; combined PD+G&A +14% YoY) that weigh on near-term operating leverage (adjusted EBITDA +11% vs. revenue +17%). The narrative is growth- and investment-driven with clear strategies around AI, inbound tourism and ecosystem building, but it includes tangible regulatory and expense headwinds that require monitoring.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Gross Bookings and Revenue Growth
Full-year 2025 gross bookings for the core OTA business were ~RMB 1.1 trillion. Group net revenue was RMB 62.4 billion, up 17% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Investigation
Received a notice from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) regarding the initiation of an investigation. Management is cooperating; potential impact and timeline remain uncertain and create regulatory risk for 2026 and beyond.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Gross Bookings and Revenue Growth
Full-year 2025 gross bookings for the core OTA business were ~RMB 1.1 trillion. Group net revenue was RMB 62.4 billion, up 17% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided a three‑pronged investment focus — inbound tourism, social responsibility and AI innovation — and characterized inbound as a multi‑year growth engine: Trip.com served ~20 million inbound travelers in 2025 (nearly 100% YoY growth), connects inbound demand to ~150,000 hotels (63,000 of which began serving inbound guests this year), benefitted >6,000 attractions (>40% newly opened to inbound visitors), supports multilingual services at 241 attractions across 16 languages, and enhanced tax‑refund access at >3,400 merchants; they aim to double the number of cities with high inbound contribution in 2026 and see 5–10x long‑run upside for China inbound. Management will keep scaling AI (proprietary vertical models) and ecosystem programs (launched a USD 100 million Tourism Innovation Fund), continue targeted spend (over RMB 1 billion for inbound, ~RMB 2.9 billion on user experience in 2025), expand international OTA presence (gross bookings +~60% YoY; international now ~40% of revenue/bookings, up from ~35% in 2024) with improved APAC profitability, and maintain disciplined capital allocation supported by a cash and equivalents balance of RMB 105.8 billion (USD 15.1 billion) and an active share‑repurchase program.Trip.com Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
87
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 59.76B | 53.29B | 44.51B | 20.04B | 20.02B | 18.32B |
| Gross Profit | 48.23B | 43.30B | 36.39B | 15.53B | 15.43B | 14.29B |
| EBITDA | 35.70B | 14.99B | 12.14B | 960.00M | -393.00M | -209.00M |
| Net Income | 31.17B | 17.07B | 9.92B | 1.40B | -550.00M | -3.25B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 270.58B | 242.58B | 219.14B | 191.69B | 191.86B | 187.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 80.45B | 76.91B | 59.34B | 42.55B | 49.38B | 42.92B |
| Total Debt | 31.93B | 40.32B | 45.57B | 46.66B | 51.72B | 57.41B |
| Total Liabilities | 100.60B | 99.10B | 96.13B | 78.67B | 81.40B | 85.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | 168.23B | 142.55B | 122.18B | 112.28B | 109.68B | 100.35B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 19.03B | 21.40B | 2.14B | 1.90B | -4.36B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 19.63B | 22.00B | 2.64B | 2.48B | -3.82B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -6.05B | 5.92B | 1.14B | -4.15B | -3.82B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -6.71B | -2.55B | -6.72B | 3.92B | 6.03B |
Trip.com Group Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
390.60
Price Trends
428.26
Negative
492.27
Negative
508.01
Negative
Market Momentum
-11.80
Negative
41.38
Neutral
39.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9961, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 390.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 402.18, below the 50-day MA of 428.26, and below the 200-day MA of 508.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -11.80 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:9961.
Trip.com Group Ltd. Risk Analysis
Trip.com Group Ltd. disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trip.com Group Ltd. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We have limited business insurance coverage. Q4, 2023
Trip.com Group Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | HK$44.00B | 20.14 | 10.95% | 0.79% | 15.33% | 34.85% | |
69 Neutral | HK$257.50B | 10.09 | 20.98% | 0.41% | 17.13% | 91.48% | |
64 Neutral | HK$86.00M | 1.37 | 16.42% | ― | 80.68% | 131.62% | |
63 Neutral | HK$413.51M | 20.99 | 12.44% | ― | 2.10% | 1.68% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | HK$17.97M | -1.73 | -9.14% | ― | -17.40% | 51.54% | |
46 Neutral | HK$344.45M | 4.75 | -33.32% | ― | 68.29% | 41.90% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HK:9961
Trip.com Group Ltd.
390.60
-42.80
-9.88%
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Trip.com Group Ltd. Corporate Events
Trip.com Under Chinese Antitrust Investigation, Operations Said to Remain Normal
Jan 14, 2026
Trip.com Group Limited has disclosed that China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an investigation into the company under the country’s Anti-Monopoly Law. The online travel giant said it will fully cooperate wit...
Trip.com Group Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results
Nov 17, 2025
Trip.com Group Limited announced its unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a robust performance in its international business segments. The company reported a significant increase in overall bookings on its intern...
Trip.com Group Schedules Q3 2025 Financial Results Announcement
Nov 5, 2025
Trip.com Group Ltd. announced that its audit committee will meet on November 17, 2025, to approve the company’s financial results for the third quarter of 2025, which will be published the following day. The announcement highlights the compa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.