Trip.com Group Ltd. (9961) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$277.28B
• Dividend Yield: 0.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.90M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.19
• Revenue Growth: 17.13%
• EPS Growth: 91.48%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 41,073
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Travel Services
• EPS (TTM): 5.68
• Shares Outstanding: 689,450,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,046,221
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,902,875
• PEG Ratio: 0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.22
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$585.93
• Price Target Upside: 39.31% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 31.97
• Revenue Forecast (FY): HK$80.74B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$504.00 ▲(19.83% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/16/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/16/26

The score is driven by strong fundamental performance (profitability and revenue growth) and a constructive earnings outlook, tempered by recent cash flow weakness and a notably weak technical trend with the stock trading below major moving averages.

Positive Factors

Sustained Revenue Growth

Consistent 16% YoY revenue growth signals durable demand recovery across Trip.com’s platforms and validates the end-to-end booking model. Over 2–6 months, steady top-line growth supports scale advantages, margin leverage, and reinvestment capacity for product and geographic expansion.

International Expansion

A ~60% surge in international bookings shows structural diversification beyond domestic travel. Sustained international traction reduces reliance on a single market, broadens the addressable market, and leverages brands like Skyscanner to capture cross-border travel flows and long-term revenue mix improvement.

Healthy Balance Sheet Capitalization

A strong equity ratio and manageable leverage provide financial resilience. Over the medium term this supports continued investment in marketing, technology (AI initiatives), and international expansion while retaining flexibility to withstand demand volatility or regulatory uncertainty without immediate liquidity stress.

Negative Factors

Operating Cash Flow Weakness

A recent operating cash flow of zero indicates weakened cash generation despite profit growth, which can constrain funding for growth initiatives, require external financing, or force tighter working-capital management. This reduces strategic flexibility over the coming months if not rectified.

Rising Marketing Costs and Pricing Pressure

Material increases in sales & marketing spend alongside low-single-digit price declines create margin pressure. If elevated acquisition costs persist while product pricing is constrained, margin recovery may be delayed and ROIC on international expansion could compress over multiple quarters.

Regulatory/Antitrust Investigation Risk

A SAMR anti-monopoly probe is a structural regulatory risk that can lead to fines, mandated changes to commercial practices, or restrictions on partnerships. Such outcomes could materially alter commission structures, partner relationships, or competitive positioning over the medium term.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Trip.com Group Limited operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours and in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. The company acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. It also provides independent leisure travelers bundled packaged-tour products comprising group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, such as air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, the company offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; destination transportation and ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, it provides its corporate clients with business visit, incentive trip, meeting and conference, travel data collection and analysis, industry benchmark, cost saving analysis, and travel management solutions; and Corporate Travel Management System, an online platform that integrates information management, online booking and authorization, online enquiry, and travel reporting systems. Additionally, the company offers online advertising and financial services. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner brands. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

Trip.com Group generates revenue primarily through a commission-based model, earning fees for each booking made through its platform. The key revenue streams include commissions from hotel and flight bookings, advertising fees from travel-related businesses, and service fees for various travel products. Additionally, the company has significant partnerships with airlines, hotels, and other travel service providers, which enhance its offerings and drive customer traffic to its platform. The company also benefits from ancillary services, such as travel insurance and car rentals, which further diversify its revenue sources.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (high margins, improved profitability, strong revenue growth) is partially offset by cash flow concerns, notably operating cash flow at zero in the most recent period. The balance sheet remains solid with a healthy equity base and manageable leverage.

Income Statement

Trip.com Group Ltd. has demonstrated robust growth in its income statement. The gross profit margin is high, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin and EBIT margin have improved significantly from previous years, showcasing enhanced profitability. The revenue growth rate is impressive, reflecting strong business momentum.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a healthy equity ratio, indicating strong capitalization. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, suggesting a balanced leverage position. However, there has been a noticeable increase in stockholders' equity, which strengthens the financial stability of the company.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with operating cash flow at zero in the most recent period, indicating potential cash management issues. Historical free cash flow has grown, but the recent absence of free cash flow highlights potential concerns in liquidity and cash generation capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	59.76B	53.29B	44.51B	20.04B	20.02B	18.32B
Gross Profit	48.23B	43.30B	36.39B	15.53B	15.43B	14.29B
EBITDA	35.70B	14.99B	12.14B	960.00M	-393.00M	-209.00M
Net Income	31.17B	17.07B	9.92B	1.40B	-550.00M	-3.25B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	270.58B	242.58B	219.14B	191.69B	191.86B	187.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	80.45B	76.91B	59.34B	42.55B	49.38B	42.92B
Total Debt	31.93B	40.32B	45.57B	46.66B	51.72B	57.41B
Total Liabilities	100.60B	99.10B	96.13B	78.67B	81.40B	85.68B
Stockholders Equity	168.23B	142.55B	122.18B	112.28B	109.68B	100.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	19.03B	21.40B	2.14B	1.90B	-4.36B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	19.63B	22.00B	2.64B	2.48B	-3.82B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-6.05B	5.92B	1.14B	-4.15B	-3.82B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-6.71B	-2.55B	-6.72B	3.92B	6.03B

Trip.com Group Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 420.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9961, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 420.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 418.57, below the 50-day MA of 483.54, and below the 200-day MA of 515.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -20.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HK:9961.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
0780	74 Outperform	HK$46.80B	12.51	12.39%	0.79%	15.33%	34.85%
9961	69 Neutral	HK$277.28B	10.09	20.98%	0.41%	17.13%	91.48%
1701	64 Neutral	HK$100.00M	1.37	16.79%	―	80.68%	131.62%
0265	63 Neutral	HK$413.51M	3.97	12.44%	―	2.10%	1.68%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
8069	47 Neutral	HK$27.77M	-1.73	-9.14%	―	-17.40%	51.54%
1901	46 Neutral	HK$389.38M	4.75	-29.79%	―	68.29%	41.90%

Trip.com Group Ltd. Corporate Events

Trip.com Under Chinese Antitrust Investigation, Operations Said to Remain Normal

Trip.com Group Limited has disclosed that China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an investigation into the company under the country’s Anti-Monopoly Law. The online travel giant said it will fully cooperate with regulators and emphasized that its business operations remain normal, signaling that day-to-day services and customer offerings are not currently affected even as regulatory scrutiny intensifies around market competition in China’s internet and platform economy.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9961) stock is a Buy with a HK$684.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trip.com Group Ltd. stock, see the HK:9961 Stock Forecast page.

Trip.com Group Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

Trip.com Group Limited announced its unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a robust performance in its international business segments. The company reported a significant increase in overall bookings on its international OTA platform, with inbound travel bookings more than doubling year-over-year and outbound flight and hotel bookings surpassing pre-pandemic levels. The company’s focus on integrating AI and innovative programs like ‘Taste of China’ is aimed at redefining travel experiences and shaping a smarter, more sustainable future for the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9961) stock is a Buy with a HK$619.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trip.com Group Ltd. stock, see the HK:9961 Stock Forecast page.

Trip.com Group Schedules Q3 2025 Financial Results Announcement

Trip.com Group Ltd. announced that its audit committee will meet on November 17, 2025, to approve the company’s financial results for the third quarter of 2025, which will be published the following day. The announcement highlights the company’s commitment to transparency and timely communication with stakeholders, as it will also host a conference call to discuss the results, reflecting its proactive approach in engaging with investors and analysts.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9961) stock is a Buy with a HK$619.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trip.com Group Ltd. stock, see the HK:9961 Stock Forecast page.