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Trip.com Group Ltd. (HK:9961)
:9961

Trip.com Group Ltd. (9961) AI Stock Analysis

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HK

Trip.com Group Ltd.

(9961)

73Outperform
Trip.com Group Ltd. has a strong financial base with significant revenue growth and robust profitability, though cash flow issues pose a risk. The technical indicators suggest a cautious stance due to bearish trends and overbought conditions. Valuation is fair, and the earnings call provides a positive outlook with strategic initiatives. These factors combined yield a moderate overall stock score.
Positive Factors
Earnings and Margins
Analysts maintain a BUY recommendation with higher target prices of HKD784/USD100, due to earnings visibility and margin upside from domestic business supported by AI-led cost savings.
Revenue Growth
The company's international business revenue is expected to achieve significant growth, supported by an expanded visa-free policy.
Valuation
The stock is trading at an attractive 17x FY25 price-to-earnings ratio, which is lower than Booking's 25x, yet it has a higher growth profile.
Negative Factors
Market Competition
Irrational market competition could lead to higher subsidies, posing a risk.
Regulatory Risks
Irrational market competition leads to higher subsidies and poses a risk alongside potential government regulatory challenges.

Trip.com Group Ltd. (9961) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Trip.com Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTrip.com Group Ltd. (9961) is a leading travel service provider that operates through a range of brands including Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar. The company offers comprehensive travel-related services including accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, package tours, and corporate travel management. With a global reach, Trip.com Group Ltd. provides its customers with access to more than 1.2 million hotels in over 200 countries and regions, and it also offers flight ticketing services with over 2 million individual flight routes.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrip.com Group Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the provision of travel-related services. Its key revenue streams include commissions from hotel reservations, transportation ticketing (including flights and train tickets), and package tours. The company also earns from service fees charged to customers and suppliers. Trip.com Group has strategic partnerships with global airlines, hotels, and other travel service providers, which enhance its service offerings and contribute to its revenue. Additionally, the company benefits from its investment in technology and data analytics, which allows it to offer personalized travel services and improve customer experience, further driving sales and profitability.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
44.51B20.04B20.02B18.32B35.67B
Gross Profit
36.39B15.53B15.43B14.29B28.29B
EBIT
11.32B2.86B-319.00M-1.07B9.31B
EBITDA
12.14B4.15B1.09B491.00M10.76B
Net Income Common Stockholders
9.92B1.95B-741.00M-1.58B7.01B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
59.34B44.03B50.76B44.23B42.98B
Total Assets
219.14B191.69B191.86B187.25B200.17B
Total Debt
45.57B46.38B51.36B57.00B50.80B
Net Debt
3.98B27.90B30.16B37.59B30.88B
Total Liabilities
96.13B78.67B81.40B85.68B94.47B
Stockholders Equity
122.18B112.28B109.68B100.35B103.44B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
21.40B2.14B1.90B-4.36B6.50B
Operating Cash Flow
22.00B2.64B2.48B-3.82B7.33B
Investing Cash Flow
5.92B1.14B-4.15B-3.82B-2.41B
Financing Cash Flow
-2.55B-6.72B3.92B6.03B-9.26B

Trip.com Group Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price478.60
Price Trends
50DMA
472.43
Positive
100DMA
503.31
Negative
200DMA
462.12
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.12
Negative
RSI
54.62
Neutral
STOCH
76.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9961, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 478.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 454.05, above the 50-day MA of 472.43, and above the 200-day MA of 462.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:9961.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Risk Analysis

Trip.com Group Ltd. disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trip.com Group Ltd. reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Trip.com Group Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
HK$2.36T17.6111.98%0.79%3.92%27.80%
77
Outperform
$4.50T21.4921.80%0.68%6.35%68.85%
76
Outperform
HK$48.08B22.3710.51%0.74%43.26%23.06%
73
Outperform
HK$310.90B17.5312.94%0.48%17.72%68.94%
70
Outperform
$846.18B21.7622.27%19.90%157.52%
66
Neutral
$69.96B36.856.14%1.54%7.63%-24.23%
61
Neutral
$6.69B11.693.01%3.94%2.60%-21.51%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HK:9961
Trip.com Group Ltd.
478.60
59.50
14.20%
HK:0780
Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited
20.35
-1.74
-7.88%
HK:9988
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
123.60
44.17
55.61%
HK:3690
Meituan
141.00
18.70
15.29%
HK:1177
Sino Biopharmaceutical
3.91
0.91
30.42%
HK:0700
Tencent Holdings
494.60
119.64
31.91%

Trip.com Group Ltd. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -8.29%|
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong growth in Trip.com's international and outbound travel segments, significant use of AI technology, and strategic initiatives to return capital to shareholders. However, there were some challenges such as quarter-over-quarter revenue decline and increased operational expenses. Overall, the positive metrics and strategic outlook outweigh the negative aspects.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Revenue Growth
Trip.com reported a net revenue of RMB 12.7 billion for Q4 2024, representing a 23% increase year-over-year. For the full year 2024, net revenue was RMB 53.3 billion, a 20% increase year-over-year.
Impressive International Business Expansion
International business grew significantly, with international bookings increasing by over 70% year-over-year in Q4, particularly in APAC markets which saw an 80% rise.
Outbound Travel Growth
Outbound travel bookings recovered to more than 120% compared to 2019, outperforming the industry by 30% to 40%.
Strong Inbound Travel Performance
Inbound travel bookings increased by over 100% year-over-year, with bookings from visa-free countries rising by over 150%.
AI Technology Advancements
Trip.com's AI tools saw significant usage increases, with TripGenie traffic surging by 200% and browsing time increasing by nearly 100%.
Strategic Capital Return Initiatives
Trip.com announced a share repurchase program of up to USD 400 million and a cash dividend totaling approximately USD 200 million for 2025.
Negative Updates
Quarter-over-Quarter Revenue Decline
Net revenue decreased by 20% from the previous quarter.
Decreased Packaged Tour Revenue Sequentially
Packaged tour revenue decreased by 44% quarter-over-quarter.
Increased Expenses
Adjusted product development expenses increased by 18% year-over-year, and adjusted G&A expenses increased by 24% year-over-year.
Company Guidance
In the Trip.com Group's 2024 Q4 earnings call, the company provided guidance highlighting robust growth metrics and future outlook. The core OTA business achieved a GMV of over RMB 1.2 trillion (USD 169 billion) in 2024. The international segment contributed 14% of Q4 revenue and 10% for the full year. Q4 net revenue increased by 23% year-over-year, with a full-year increase of 20%. Inbound travel bookings surged over 100% year-over-year, with those from visa-free countries rising by over 150%. TripGenie experienced a 200% increase in traffic, and the international OTA platform saw a 70% year-over-year growth in air ticket and hotel bookings. The company announced a share repurchase program up to USD 400 million and a cash dividend totaling approximately USD 200 million for 2025, reflecting strong financial positioning. Looking forward, Trip.com is optimistic about the evolving travel market, focusing on AI innovations and sustainable growth initiatives.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Corporate Events

Trip.com Group Ltd. to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results
May 6, 2025

Trip.com Group Ltd. has announced that its audit committee will meet on May 16, 2025, to approve the financial results for the first quarter of 2025, which will be published on May 20, 2025. The company will also host a conference call on May 19, 2025, to discuss these results, indicating a transparent approach to stakeholder communication and potentially impacting investor relations positively.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Files 2024 Annual Report with SEC
Apr 11, 2025

Trip.com Group Ltd. has filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This filing is part of their regulatory compliance as a publicly listed company on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reflecting their commitment to transparency and providing stakeholders with insights into their financial performance and strategic direction.

Trip.com Group Reports Strong 2024 Financial Results and Growth
Feb 25, 2025

Trip.com Group Limited announced its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, highlighting robust growth in its international business segments. The company reported a significant recovery in outbound hotel and air ticket bookings, surpassing pre-COVID levels, and a substantial increase in inbound travel bookings. Financially, Trip.com achieved a 23% year-over-year growth in net revenue for the fourth quarter, alongside improvements in net income and adjusted EBITDA. The company’s leadership expressed confidence in continued growth and innovation, emphasizing their commitment to enhancing travel experiences and contributing to global economic growth.

Trip.com Group Ltd. Declares USD 0.3 Per Share Dividend for 2024
Feb 25, 2025

Trip.com Group Ltd. has announced a cash dividend of USD 0.3 per share for the financial year ending December 31, 2024. The dividend, approved on February 25, 2025, will be paid on March 27, 2025, with a record date of March 17, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s financial health and commitment to returning value to its shareholders, potentially strengthening its position in the travel services industry.

Trip.com Announces Key Dates for 2024 Financial Results and Potential Dividend
Feb 11, 2025

Trip.com Group Ltd. has announced key dates pertaining to its financial results and potential dividend declaration. The audit committee will meet on February 21, 2025, to approve the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results, which will be publicly announced on February 25, 2025, before Hong Kong Stock Exchange trading hours. Additionally, the company’s board is considering a cash dividend declaration, to be resolved around the same date. The management will also host a conference call on February 24, 2025, to discuss these results, indicating a proactive approach in engaging with investors and stakeholders.

Trip.com Announces Board Changes with New Baidu Nominee
Feb 11, 2025

Trip.com Group Limited announced a change in its board composition with the resignation of Baidu-nominated director Mr. Junjie He, effective February 11, 2025. Mr. Rong Luo, Baidu’s Executive Vice President, will succeed Mr. He as a director. Mr. Luo brings a wealth of financial management experience from previous roles at Baidu, TAL Education Group, eLong Inc., Lenovo Group, and Microsoft. This change reflects an ongoing collaboration with Baidu and may influence Trip.com’s strategic direction given Mr. Luo’s extensive background in financial management and corporate strategy.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.