Trip.com Group Ltd. (HK:9961)
:9961
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Trip.com Group Ltd.
(9961)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
HK$472.00
▲(18.71% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:05/01/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, rapid revenue growth, and improving leverage) and a relatively attractive P/E valuation. These positives are tempered by mixed technicals (price well below longer-term moving averages) and risks highlighted on the earnings call, notably the SAMR investigation and rising investment/marketing spend that can weigh on near-term margins.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth & high gross margins
Sustained double-digit revenue growth from 2022–2025 combined with persistently very high gross margins indicates durable platform scale and pricing power across accommodation and transportation. This structural profitability supports reinvestment, product development and consistent operating cash generation over a multi-year horizon.
Negative Factors
SAMR regulatory investigation
An active SAMR probe represents a persistent regulatory overhang that can trigger fines, mandated business practice changes, or restrictions on platform agreements. Such outcomes would raise compliance costs, alter supplier relationships and could structurally limit pricing, commission models or product bundling over multiple years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth & high gross margins
Sustained double-digit revenue growth from 2022–2025 combined with persistently very high gross margins indicates durable platform scale and pricing power across accommodation and transportation. This structural profitability supports reinvestment, product development and consistent operating cash generation over a multi-year horizon.
Read all positive factors
Trip.com Group Ltd. (9961) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$275.44B
Dividend Yield0.41%
Average Volume (3M)1.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.1
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth17.19%
EPS Growth94.71%
CountryHK
Employees41,073
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)50.61
Shares Outstanding689,450,260
10 Day Avg. Volume2,046,221
30 Day Avg. Volume1,902,875
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.11
Price to Book (P/B)1.91
Price to Sales (P/S)5.38
P/FCF Ratio24.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$577.78Price Target Upside45.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)31.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$80.78B
Trip.com Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trip.com Group Limited operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours and in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. T...
How the Company Makes Money
Trip.com Group primarily generates revenue by facilitating travel bookings and charging for its role in helping customers search, compare, reserve, and purchase travel products and services. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Accommodation...
Trip.com Group Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a clearly positive operational and financial picture: solid top-line growth (net revenue +17% YoY, Q4 +21%), strong international and inbound momentum (international gross bookings +~60% YoY; ~20 million inbound travelers), healthy cash balance and continued shareholder returns. At the same time, management flagged material risks — an active SAMR investigation and meaningful step-up in marketing and operating investments (S&M +30% YoY in Q4; combined PD+G&A +14% YoY) that weigh on near-term operating leverage (adjusted EBITDA +11% vs. revenue +17%). The narrative is growth- and investment-driven with clear strategies around AI, inbound tourism and ecosystem building, but it includes tangible regulatory and expense headwinds that require monitoring.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Gross Bookings and Revenue Growth
Full-year 2025 gross bookings for the core OTA business were ~RMB 1.1 trillion. Group net revenue was RMB 62.4 billion, up 17% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Investigation
Received a notice from the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) regarding the initiation of an investigation. Management is cooperating; potential impact and timeline remain uncertain and create regulatory risk for 2026 and beyond.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Gross Bookings and Revenue Growth
Full-year 2025 gross bookings for the core OTA business were ~RMB 1.1 trillion. Group net revenue was RMB 62.4 billion, up 17% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided a three‑pronged investment focus — inbound tourism, social responsibility and AI innovation — and characterized inbound as a multi‑year growth engine: Trip.com served ~20 million inbound travelers in 2025 (nearly 100% YoY growth), connects inbound demand to ~150,000 hotels (63,000 of which began serving inbound guests this year), benefitted >6,000 attractions (>40% newly opened to inbound visitors), supports multilingual services at 241 attractions across 16 languages, and enhanced tax‑refund access at >3,400 merchants; they aim to double the number of cities with high inbound contribution in 2026 and see 5–10x long‑run upside for China inbound. Management will keep scaling AI (proprietary vertical models) and ecosystem programs (launched a USD 100 million Tourism Innovation Fund), continue targeted spend (over RMB 1 billion for inbound, ~RMB 2.9 billion on user experience in 2025), expand international OTA presence (gross bookings +~60% YoY; international now ~40% of revenue/bookings, up from ~35% in 2024) with improved APAC profitability, and maintain disciplined capital allocation supported by a cash and equivalents balance of RMB 105.8 billion (USD 15.1 billion) and an active share‑repurchase program.Trip.com Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 60.79B | 53.29B | 44.51B | 20.04B | 20.02B |
| Gross Profit | 48.99B | 43.30B | 36.39B | 15.53B | 15.43B |
| EBITDA | 16.19B | 14.99B | 12.14B | 960.00M | -393.00M |
| Net Income | 32.43B | 17.07B | 9.92B | 1.40B | -550.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 267.50B | 242.58B | 219.14B | 191.69B | 191.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 78.49B | 76.91B | 59.34B | 42.55B | 49.38B |
| Total Debt | 31.95B | 40.32B | 45.57B | 46.66B | 51.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 94.83B | 99.10B | 96.13B | 78.67B | 81.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 171.02B | 142.55B | 122.18B | 112.28B | 109.68B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 13.58B | 19.03B | 21.40B | 2.14B | 1.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.38B | 19.63B | 22.00B | 2.64B | 2.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.18B | -6.05B | 5.92B | 1.14B | -4.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -14.66B | -6.71B | -2.55B | -6.72B | 3.92B |
Trip.com Group Ltd. Technical Analysis
Neutral
397.60
Price Trends
415.77
Positive
479.87
Negative
506.00
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.37
Negative
59.26
Neutral
85.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9961, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 397.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 400.90, below the 50-day MA of 415.77, and below the 200-day MA of 506.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HK:9961.
Trip.com Group Ltd. Risk Analysis
Trip.com Group Ltd. disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trip.com Group Ltd. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We have limited business insurance coverage. Q4, 2023
Trip.com Group Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | HK$275.44B | 10.09 | 20.98% | 0.41% | 17.19% | 94.71% | |
67 Neutral | HK$41.79B | 20.14 | 10.95% | 0.79% | 11.93% | 19.19% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | HK$426.43M | 20.99 | 12.44% | ― | -1.97% | -57.63% | |
55 Neutral | HK$19.60M | -1.73 | -9.14% | ― | -17.40% | 51.54% | |
54 Neutral | HK$87.00M | -2.46 | 16.42% | ― | 48.36% | -16.82% | |
46 Neutral | HK$294.53M | -1.89 | -70.20% | ― | 9.11% | 5.66% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HK:9961
Trip.com Group Ltd.
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Trip.com Group Ltd. Corporate Events
Trip.com Group Files 2025 Form 20-F With U.S. SEC
Apr 28, 2026
Trip.com Group Limited has announced that it has filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing, made pursuant to Hong Kong listing rules, is available ...
Trip.com Group Posts Strong 2025 on Surging International and Inbound Travel
Feb 25, 2026
Trip.com Group reported its unaudited fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting strong performance in its international business across all segments. Overall bookings on its international online travel agency platform rose about 60% ...
Trip.com Sets Date to Approve and Release 2025 Full-Year Results
Feb 9, 2026
Trip.com Group’s audit committee will meet on February 25, 2026, to approve the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, which will be released in Hong Kong before trading on February 26, 2026. The timing signals ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.