MINISO Group Holding Ltd. (9896) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$45.54B
• Dividend Yield: 3.18%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.75M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.13
• Revenue Growth: 13.14%
• EPS Growth: -19.58%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 7,003
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 1,237,564,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,012,731
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,751,711
• PEG Ratio: -4.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.31
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.22
• P/FCF Ratio: 38.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$52.40
• Price Target Upside: 42.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$44.00 ▲(19.57% Upside)

The score is led by strong profitability and capital efficiency, but is held back by the latest revenue decline and weaker cash conversion/FCF volatility. Technicals are mixed with only modest positive momentum, and valuation is fair (P/E ~20.4) with a supportive ~3% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Scalable Franchise Model

A franchise-heavy model materially lowers capital intensity and speeds geographic rollout. Durable recurring franchise fees and royalties provide steady margin-accretive revenue, enabling low-capex expansion and faster scaling of brand footprint over the next several quarters.

High and Improving Profitability

Sustainably high gross and operating margins reflect strong product economics, sourcing leverage and brand pricing power. Elevated ROE signals efficient capital use, supporting internal funding for growth, dividend capacity and resilience through cyclical retail pressure.

Network Expansion and Same-Store Sales Upswing

Accelerating net store adds and improving SSSG in mainland China indicate stronger store-level economics and execution. Larger store base enhances scale advantages with suppliers, marketing reach and brand momentum, supporting sustainable top-line growth over multiple quarters.

Negative Factors

Recent Revenue Contraction

A year-over-year revenue decline after multi-year expansion suggests emerging demand or productivity headwinds. Persistent top-line weakness would constrain leverage of fixed costs, slow franchise economics, and impair the company's ability to fund organic growth.

Weak Cash Conversion and Volatile FCF

Operating cash flow materially lagging net income and swings in FCF point to working-capital timing and conversion risks. This undermines self-funded expansion and cushions against shocks, potentially increasing reliance on external financing or reducing reinvestment capacity.

Rising Financial Leverage

An increase in leverage reduces balance-sheet flexibility and raises interest and refinancing sensitivity. If revenue or cash generation softens, higher debt amplifies downside risk and limits room for opportunistic investments or franchise support initiatives.

MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of lifestyle products and pop toy products in China, rest of Asia, the Americas, Europe, Indonesia, and internationally. The company offers products in various categories, including home decor products, small electronics, textiles, accessories, beauty tools, toys, cosmetics, personal care products, snacks, fragrances and perfumes, and stationeries and gifts under the MINISO brand; and blind boxes, toy bricks, model figures, model kits, collectible dolls, Ichiban Kuji, and other popular toys under the TOP TOY brand. It also engages in the brand licensing activity. The company also operates characters themed store in Vietnam. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Guangzhou, China.

How the Company Makes Money

MINISO generates revenue primarily through the sale of its products in physical stores and online platforms. The company employs a franchise model, allowing it to expand rapidly by partnering with local franchisees who operate stores under the MINISO brand. Key revenue streams include direct sales of merchandise, franchise fees, and royalties from franchise operations. Additionally, MINISO benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers, which help to maintain low costs and a diverse product range. Seasonal promotions and limited-time offers also play a role in driving sales, contributing to the company's overall earnings.

MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and structurally improved profitability (~45% gross margin, ~20% operating margin, ~15% net margin) and attractive ROE (~25%) support the score. Offsetting factors are the latest revenue contraction (-3.98%), higher leverage year over year (debt-to-equity rising to ~0.30x), and uneven cash conversion (operating cash flow well below net income, with volatile free cash flow).

Income Statement

Profitability is strong and has structurally improved versus earlier years: the latest annual period shows ~45% gross margin and ~15% net margin, with operating profitability also healthy (~20% operating margin). Earnings have scaled materially since 2022 as margins expanded. The key weakness is growth: revenue turned negative in the latest year (-3.98%) after solid multi-year expansion, suggesting a near-term demand or store productivity headwind despite resilient margins.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains moderate with debt at ~0.30x equity in the latest year, and equity has grown alongside assets over time, supporting financial flexibility. Returns on equity are attractive (~25%), indicating good capital efficiency. The main watchout is the upward shift in leverage versus the prior year (debt-to-equity rising from ~0.14x to ~0.30x), which reduces balance-sheet headroom if growth remains soft.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive with meaningful free cash flow in the latest year, and free cash flow equals roughly two-thirds of net income—generally decent conversion. However, cash conversion is not consistently strong: operating cash flow is well below net income in the latest year (coverage ~0.38), implying working-capital or timing pressures, and free cash flow has shown volatility across years (including a sharp drop in 2022 and declines in 2024).

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	18.63B	16.99B	15.27B	11.47B	10.09B	9.07B
Gross Profit	8.40B	7.64B	6.49B	4.44B	3.07B	2.43B
EBITDA	3.26B	4.29B	3.93B	2.43B	1.02B	-922.81M
Net Income	2.35B	2.62B	2.50B	1.77B	638.17M	-1.42B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	26.65B	18.12B	15.95B	13.45B	11.28B	10.71B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.46B	6.70B	7.58B	7.28B	5.80B	6.87B
Total Debt	10.36B	3.11B	1.38B	892.95M	658.01M	825.01M
Total Liabilities	15.75B	7.76B	5.83B	4.53B	4.25B	4.05B
Stockholders Equity	10.85B	10.31B	10.09B	8.90B	7.03B	6.66B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	1.41B	1.05B	1.49B	172.06M	736.04M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	2.17B	1.34B	1.67B	1.41B	916.32M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-533.25M	44.82M	-293.41M	-2.13B	-518.80M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-1.72B	-1.46B	-325.96M	-733.56M	3.54B

MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 36.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9896, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 36.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.21, below the 50-day MA of 38.17, and below the 200-day MA of 39.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:9896.

MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2420	77 Outperform	HK$1.55B	8.48	27.30%	4.07%	23.59%	―
9896	68 Neutral	HK$45.54B	19.49	20.87%	3.18%	13.14%	-19.58%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
2209	61 Neutral	HK$1.47B	8.39	41.54%	1.89%	55.02%	25.22%
0178	56 Neutral	HK$1.83B	19.34	8.44%	4.75%	-3.18%	-36.46%
2411	46 Neutral	HK$3.31B	-2.79	-29.04%	0.39%	-15.49%	-544.89%

MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Corporate Events

MINISO Announces Unaudited Financial Results for Q3 and Nine Months of 2025

MINISO Group Holding Ltd. announced its unaudited financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. The announcement, issued in compliance with relevant regulations, highlights the company’s financial performance, which may contain material inside information. Stakeholders are advised to exercise caution when dealing with the company’s securities, as the results are unaudited and forward-looking statements are included.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9896) stock is a Buy with a HK$49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9896 Stock Forecast page.

MINISO Group Schedules Board Meeting and Earnings Call for Q3 Results

MINISO Group Holding Limited has announced a board meeting scheduled for November 21, 2025, to review and approve the company’s unaudited financial results for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The company will hold an earnings conference call on the same day to discuss these financial results, providing simultaneous English interpretation and multiple access methods for stakeholders, including a Zoom link, international dial-in numbers, and access through the company’s investor relations website.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9896) stock is a Buy with a HK$49.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MINISO Group Holding Ltd. stock, see the HK:9896 Stock Forecast page.