MINISO Group Holding Ltd. (HK:9896)
:9896
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MINISO Group Holding Ltd.
(9896)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
HK$35.00
▲(9.24% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/14/26
The score is led by strong profitability and capital efficiency, but is held back by the latest revenue decline and weaker cash conversion/FCF volatility. Technicals are mixed with only modest positive momentum, and valuation is fair (P/E ~20.4) with a supportive ~3% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Margins
High, structurally improved margins provide a durable profit buffer that supports reinvestment in product design, sourcing, and store experience. Sustained margin strength improves cash generation resilience versus peers and helps absorb cost inflation over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Revenue Trend
Revenue declined nearly 4% after prior expansion, pointing to weakening demand or lower store productivity. Persistent top-line weakness would limit operating leverage and could erode the current margin cushion if sales do not recover over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margins
High, structurally improved margins provide a durable profit buffer that supports reinvestment in product design, sourcing, and store experience. Sustained margin strength improves cash generation resilience versus peers and helps absorb cost inflation over multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. (9896) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$39.70B
Dividend Yield3.18%
Average Volume (3M)4.75M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.3
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth13.14%
EPS Growth-19.58%
CountryHK
Employees7,003
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.14
Shares Outstanding1,238,960,400
10 Day Avg. Volume6,012,731
30 Day Avg. Volume4,751,711
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.22
Price to Book (P/B)5.31
Price to Sales (P/S)3.22
P/FCF Ratio38.96
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$43.71Price Target Upside36.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$28.33B
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of lifestyle products and pop toy products in China, rest of Asia, the Americas, Europe, Indonesia, and internationally. The company offers products i...
How the Company Makes Money
MINISO primarily makes money by selling merchandise to consumers through its MINISO-branded retail network and e-commerce/online platforms. Revenue is generated from (1) direct retail sales in company-operated stores and online channels, where MIN...
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 16.99B | 15.27B | 11.47B | 10.09B | 9.07B |
| Gross Profit | 7.64B | 6.49B | 4.44B | 3.07B | 2.43B |
| EBITDA | 4.29B | 3.93B | 2.43B | 1.02B | -922.81M |
| Net Income | 2.62B | 2.50B | 1.77B | 638.17M | -1.42B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 18.12B | 15.95B | 13.45B | 11.28B | 10.71B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.70B | 7.58B | 7.28B | 5.80B | 6.87B |
| Total Debt | 3.11B | 1.38B | 892.95M | 658.01M | 825.01M |
| Total Liabilities | 7.76B | 5.83B | 4.53B | 4.25B | 4.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.31B | 10.09B | 8.90B | 7.03B | 6.66B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.41B | 1.05B | 1.49B | 172.06M | 736.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.17B | 1.34B | 1.67B | 1.41B | 916.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -533.25M | 44.82M | -293.41M | -2.13B | -518.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.72B | -1.46B | -325.96M | -733.56M | 3.54B |
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
32.04
Price Trends
35.34
Negative
37.12
Negative
38.96
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.09
Negative
43.06
Neutral
46.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9896, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.04 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.68, below the 50-day MA of 35.34, and below the 200-day MA of 38.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:9896.
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Risk Analysis
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. disclosed 103 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MINISO Group Holding Ltd. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Adverse developments affecting financial institutions or the financial services industry in general, such as actual events or concerns involving liquidity, defaults or non-performance by financial institutions or transactional counterparties, could adversely affect our current and projected business operations and our financial condition and results of operations. Q2, 2023
2.
Our business is operated globally. Global inflationary pressures could negatively affect our results of operations and cash flows. Q2, 2023
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | HK$2.18B | 6.91 | 36.38% | 4.07% | 23.59% | ― | |
68 Neutral | HK$39.70B | 28.28 | 20.24% | 3.18% | 13.14% | -19.58% | |
63 Neutral | HK$1.33B | 8.93 | 41.54% | 1.89% | 55.02% | 25.22% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | HK$2.33B | 9.74 | 8.16% | 4.75% | -3.18% | -36.46% | |
46 Neutral | HK$3.71B | -7.61 | -12.57% | 0.39% | -15.49% | -544.89% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HK:9896
MINISO Group Holding Ltd.
32.04
2.49
8.43%
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19.79%
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0.20
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1.85
0.94
103.30%
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-6.02%
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Corporate Events
MINISO Grants RSUs to Employees Under 2020 Incentive Plan
Apr 7, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. has granted 327,558 restricted share units to seven employees under its 2020 Share Incentive Plan, equivalent to about 0.03% of its issued share capital, with a nominal purchase price of US$0.00001 per RSU and a grant-dat...
MINISO Publishes Unaudited 2025 Full-Year and Quarterly Results
Mar 31, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. announced its unaudited condensed consolidated financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, prepared in accordance with U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission requirements. The disclosure, cla...
MINISO Posts Strong Revenue Growth but Sees IFRS Profit Decline in 2025
Mar 31, 2026
MINISO reported strong top-line growth for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with revenue rising to RMB 21.44 billion and gross profit improving to RMB 9.65 billion, reflecting continued expansion and solid underlying demand. However, repor...
MINISO Declares Final 2025 Cash Dividend for Hong Kong Shareholders
Mar 31, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited has declared a final ordinary cash dividend of USD 0.0941 per share for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, payable in U.S. dollars to shareholders on its Hong Kong register. The ex-dividend date is set for 17 A...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.