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MINISO Group Holding Ltd.
(9896)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
HK$23.50
▼(-22.13% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/03/26
The score is held back primarily by the latest period’s sharp profitability drop, leverage spike, and negative free cash flow, which increase financial and liquidity risk. Technicals also remain weak with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD. Offsetting factors are an inexpensive P/E and a high dividend yield, which provide valuation support but do not fully counter the recent fundamental reversal.
Positive Factors
Sustained revenue growth
Strong top-line momentum across recent periods indicates persistent customer demand and successful geographic/product expansion. Durable revenue growth supports scale advantages in sourcing and merchandising, helping absorb fixed costs and enabling reinvestment in stores, product development, and partnerships over the next several months.
Negative Factors
Severe gross margin deterioration
A collapse from ~40% to 17.6% gross margin is a substantive structural issue, reducing cushion for operating costs and making profitability highly sensitive to cost, pricing, or mix shifts. Restoring margins typically requires sustained sourcing improvements or price recovery, which can take multiple quarters and constrain durable profit restoration.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained revenue growth
Strong top-line momentum across recent periods indicates persistent customer demand and successful geographic/product expansion. Durable revenue growth supports scale advantages in sourcing and merchandising, helping absorb fixed costs and enabling reinvestment in stores, product development, and partnerships over the next several months.
Read all positive factors
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. (9896) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$28.97B
Dividend Yield3.18%
Average Volume (3M)4.75M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.1
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth30.69%
EPS Growth-13.06%
CountryHK
Employees7,003
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.50
Shares Outstanding1,238,960,400
10 Day Avg. Volume6,012,731
30 Day Avg. Volume4,751,711
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.99
Price to Book (P/B)21.44
Price to Sales (P/S)1.12
P/FCF Ratio-28.99
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$40.75Price Target Upside35.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)2.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$29.12B
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MINISO Group Holding Limited operates as an investment entity, primarily focused on the global retail and wholesale distribution of lifestyle items and popular toy products. Its expansive portfolio features a broad range of categories under the MI...
How the Company Makes Money
MINISO primarily makes money by selling consumer merchandise through its retail network and related channels. Key revenue drivers generally include: (1) Product sales to customers via company-operated MINISO stores, where the company earns retail ...
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 22.65B | 35.46B | 16.99B | 14.21B | 11.47B | 10.09B |
| Gross Profit | 10.13B | 6.26B | 7.64B | 6.03B | 4.44B | 3.07B |
| EBITDA | 3.21B | -946.89M | 4.29B | 3.65B | 2.43B | 1.02B |
| Net Income | 2.03B | -2.70B | 2.62B | 2.32B | 1.77B | 638.17M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 29.65B | 30.46B | 18.12B | 14.44B | 13.45B | 11.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.03B | 4.25B | 6.70B | 6.87B | 7.28B | 5.80B |
| Total Debt | 11.52B | 14.58B | 3.11B | 1.25B | 892.95M | 658.01M |
| Total Liabilities | 18.61B | 28.82B | 7.76B | 5.28B | 4.53B | 4.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.93B | 1.86B | 10.31B | 9.14B | 8.90B | 7.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.38B | 1.41B | 950.81M | 1.49B | 172.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 73.24M | 2.17B | 1.22B | 1.67B | 1.41B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -352.18M | -533.25M | 40.59M | -293.41M | -2.13B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -1.84B | -1.72B | -1.32B | -325.96M | -733.56M |
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
30.18
Price Trends
26.48
Negative
29.98
Negative
35.15
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.14
Negative
40.98
Neutral
57.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9896, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.28, above the 50-day MA of 26.48, and below the 200-day MA of 35.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:9896.
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Risk Analysis
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. disclosed 103 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MINISO Group Holding Ltd. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Adverse developments affecting financial institutions or the financial services industry in general, such as actual events or concerns involving liquidity, defaults or non-performance by financial institutions or transactional counterparties, could adversely affect our current and projected business operations and our financial condition and results of operations. Q2, 2023
2.
Our business is operated globally. Global inflationary pressures could negatively affect our results of operations and cash flows. Q2, 2023
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | HK$991.65M | 5.37 | 41.54% | 1.89% | 44.93% | 18.38% | |
62 Neutral | HK$2.85B | 14.05 | 8.16% | 4.75% | 11.19% | 160.48% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | HK$121.14B | 31.05 | 6.39% | 1.81% | 1.12% | 5.68% | |
52 Neutral | HK$28.97B | 8.09 | 18.80% | 3.18% | 30.69% | -13.06% | |
45 Neutral | HK$43.12M | -0.15 | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
44 Neutral | HK$2.85B | -6.05 | -12.56% | 0.39% | -20.46% | 14.16% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HK:9896
MINISO Group Holding Ltd.
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MINISO Group Holding Ltd. Corporate Events
MINISO Adds Yonghui Audited Results to Amended U.S. Filing
Jun 29, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited has updated investors on its significant equity investment in Yonghui Superstores Co., Ltd., a Chinese retail chain, by filing an amended annual report in the United States. The company determined that Yonghui, account...
MINISO unveils new HK$2 billion share buyback for 2026
Jun 29, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. has authorized a new 2026 share repurchase program allowing it to buy back up to HK$2 billion worth of ordinary shares and American depositary shares over a 12‑month period starting June 30, 2026, funded from surplu...
MINISO Shareholders Approve All AGM Resolutions, Bolstering Capital Flexibility
Jun 18, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. said shareholders overwhelmingly approved all resolutions at its annual general meeting held on June 18, 2026, including adoption of the 2025 audited financial statements and the re-election of independent non-executive d...
MINISO Chairman Ye Guofu Lifts Stake, Underscoring Confidence in Growth Outlook
Jun 1, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited announced that its controlling shareholder, chairman and CEO, Ye Guofu, has increased his stake in the company through open-market purchases. Using personal funds, Ye acquired 2.1 million shares at an average price of ...
MINISO Releases Unaudited First-Quarter 2026 Results and Issues Investor Caution
May 26, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited, a Cayman Islands–incorporated lifestyle product retailer listed in Hong Kong, operates a global network offering affordable, branded variety goods to mass-market consumers. The company works with suppliers, reta...
MINISO forecasts surge in Q1 2026 profit on AI investment gains
May 13, 2026
MINISO Group Holding said it expects strong financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, forecasting revenue of about RMB5.68 billion to RMB5.73 billion, up roughly 28% to 29% year on year. The group also anticipates adjusted operating ...
MINISO Files 2025 Form 20-F With U.S. SEC
Apr 24, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. announced that it has filed its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing underscores MINISO’s ongoing compliance with dual-l...
MINISO Seeks Specific Share Mandate as Dividend Adjustments Lift Warrant Share Count
Apr 24, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited plans to seek shareholder approval for a specific mandate to issue additional shares tied to its existing equity-linked call spread structure. The move follows multiple cash dividend distributions, which have reduced t...
MINISO Sets 2026 AGM to Approve Accounts, Board Mandates and Fresh Share-Issuance Authority
Apr 24, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. has called its annual general meeting for June 18, 2026, in Hong Kong, where shareholders will review and adopt the audited financial statements for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, and receive reports from the bo...
MINISO Chair Ye Guofu to Boost Stake by at Least HK$50 Million
Apr 23, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd., a value-focused lifestyle retailer of household and consumer goods, operates through physical stores and listings in both Hong Kong and the United States via ordinary shares and American Depositary Shares. The company ta...
MINISO adjusts equity-linked securities and call spread terms after 2025 dividend
Apr 21, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. has adjusted the exercise prices and share amounts tied to its equity-linked securities and associated call spread following the board’s approval of a final cash dividend for fiscal 2025, in line with the instrument...
MINISO Grants RSUs to Employees Under 2020 Incentive Plan
Apr 7, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Ltd. has granted 327,558 restricted share units to seven employees under its 2020 Share Incentive Plan, equivalent to about 0.03% of its issued share capital, with a nominal purchase price of US$0.00001 per RSU and a grant-dat...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.