Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. Class H (9633) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$525.88B
• Dividend Yield: 1.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.87M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 4.14%
• EPS Growth: 7.35%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
• EPS (TTM): 0.76
• Shares Outstanding: 5,034,666,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,293,182
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,874,667
• PEG Ratio: 31.65
• Price to Book (P/B): 11.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.36
• P/FCF Ratio: 77.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$54.50
• Price Target Upside: 12.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$52.00 ▲(7.71% Upside)

Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. is financially sound with strong revenue growth and profitability metrics, but increasing debt levels require attention. The stock is experiencing bearish momentum, with technical indicators suggesting a downward trend. The valuation indicates the stock is relatively expensive, which could limit upside potential.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Nongfu Spring's consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term business expansion.

Gross Profit Margin

A robust gross profit margin reflects efficient cost management, enhancing profitability and providing a buffer against market fluctuations.

Brand Loyalty

Strong brand loyalty and recognition provide a competitive edge, enabling premium pricing and customer retention, crucial for sustained revenue.

Negative Factors

Increasing Debt Levels

Rising debt levels can strain financial resources and limit strategic flexibility, posing long-term risks if not managed effectively.

Net Profit Margin Decrease

A decrease in net profit margin may indicate rising costs or pricing pressures, potentially impacting future profitability if trends continue.

Missing Cash Flow Data

Missing cash flow data for 2024 creates uncertainty in assessing cash generation ability, crucial for evaluating financial health and investment capacity.

Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. Class H Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. produces and markets packaged drinking water and beverage products primarily in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Water Products, Ready-To-Drink Tea Products, Functional Drinks Products, Juice Beverage Products, and Other Products. The company also offers tea beverage products; functional drink products; fruit juice products; and other beverage products, such as soda water beverages, sparkling flavored beverages, coffee beverages, and plant-based yogurt products, as well as agricultural products comprising fresh fruits. In addition, it provides supply chain management services. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China. Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Yangshengtang Co., Ltd.

How the Company Makes Money

Nongfu Spring generates revenue primarily through the sale of bottled water and its other beverage products. The company has a strong revenue model based on high-volume sales of its flagship spring water products, which are marketed as premium offerings due to their natural sourcing and quality. Key revenue streams include direct sales to retail partners, supermarkets, and convenience stores, as well as e-commerce platforms. Nongfu Spring has established significant partnerships with major retailers and distributors, enabling extensive market penetration across China. Additionally, the company benefits from brand loyalty and recognition, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge in pricing and product offerings. Seasonal promotions and marketing campaigns also play a crucial role in driving sales, particularly during peak consumption periods such as summer.

Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. Class H Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and robust profit margins. The balance sheet is stable, though increasing debt levels require attention. Cash flows are generally positive, but some data is missing for 2024.

Income Statement

Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth from 2019 to 2024. The gross profit margin is robust, indicating effective cost management. Although the net profit margin slightly decreased in 2024 compared to 2023, it remains healthy. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid, reflecting efficient operations and strong earnings before interest and taxes.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a healthy debt-to-equity ratio and a solid equity ratio, indicating financial stability. The return on equity (ROE) is impressive, reflecting the company's efficient use of shareholders' equity. However, the total debt has increased over the years, which could pose a risk if not managed properly.

Cash Flow

Cash flow from operations has been robust, though the operating cash flow to net income ratio for 2024 is unavailable. Free cash flow has shown growth in previous years, but specific growth rates for 2024 are not calculable due to missing current period data. The company maintains a positive free cash flow to net income ratio, which indicates good cash generation relative to net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	46.35B	42.90B	42.67B	33.24B	29.70B	22.88B
Gross Profit	27.34B	24.92B	25.41B	19.10B	17.66B	13.51B
EBITDA	18.78B	16.51B	18.42B	11.80B	10.96B	8.55B
Net Income	13.51B	12.12B	12.08B	8.50B	7.16B	5.28B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	64.39B	53.16B	49.14B	39.25B	32.90B	25.86B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.14B	12.25B	24.23B	15.29B	14.99B	9.12B
Total Debt	4.55B	3.75B	3.21B	2.52B	2.59B	2.47B
Total Liabilities	33.02B	20.87B	20.57B	15.17B	12.15B	10.37B
Stockholders Equity	31.37B	32.29B	28.57B	24.08B	20.74B	15.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.07B	4.62B	12.44B	7.69B	8.91B	6.15B
Operating Cash Flow	15.89B	11.02B	17.30B	12.04B	11.40B	8.43B
Investing Cash Flow	-7.94B	-4.50B	-14.28B	-9.43B	-5.32B	-4.66B
Financing Cash Flow	-7.91B	-8.06B	-7.02B	-5.37B	-1.89B	1.72B

Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. Class H Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 48.28
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:9633, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 48.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.04, below the 50-day MA of 49.55, and above the 200-day MA of 44.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:9633.

Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. Class H Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2097	73 Outperform	HK$160.28B	―	―	―	―	―
0220	71 Outperform	HK$34.68B	14.82	17.10%	5.64%	8.19%	23.16%
1837	68 Neutral	HK$2.39B	10.73	13.72%	3.74%	11.89%	27.80%
1475	67 Neutral	HK$7.22B	34.76	5.55%	1.41%	7.29%	-33.19%
2175	64 Neutral	HK$1.51B	16.96	4.06%	―	-0.48%	-29.65%
9633	63 Neutral	HK$525.88B	36.09	46.45%	1.73%	4.14%	7.35%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%

Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. Class H Corporate Events

Nongfu Spring Renews Key Agreements for Continued Operations

Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. has announced the renewal of its continuing connected transactions under the New Purchasing Framework Agreement and the New Basic R&D and Test Service Framework Agreement. These agreements, set to commence on January 1, 2026, and last until December 31, 2028, involve transactions with Yangshengtang, a substantial shareholder. The renewal reflects the company’s strategic planning to ensure ongoing operations and compliance with the Listing Rules, impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:9633) stock is a Hold with a HK$52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. Class H stock, see the HK:9633 Stock Forecast page.