China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $63.87B
• Dividend Yield: 24.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 21.59M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 566.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: -11.90%
• EPS Growth: -97.93%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 41,058
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.82
• Shares Outstanding: 3,912,040,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 20,250,137
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,587,410
• PEG Ratio: 1.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.08
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 37.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $21.98
• Price Target Upside: 33.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$19.00 ▲(15.15%Upside)

China Mengniu Dairy Co's stock score is driven primarily by its solid financial performance, despite profitability challenges and increased leverage. Technical indicators show bearish momentum, and the valuation suggests potential overvaluation due to an extremely high P/E ratio, though the dividend yield offers some investor appeal. The absence of recent earnings call data and notable corporate events limits further insights.

Positive Factors

Operating Margin

Operating margin rose due to lower raw milk prices and effective cost management.

Product Expansion

Mengniu is focusing on rolling out more value-for-money and targeted products to increase market penetration, especially in lower-tier markets.

Sales Growth

Shiny Meadow, Mengniu's fresh milk brand, delivered over 20% sales growth and is set to expand further.

Negative Factors

Earnings

Earnings were cut by 3% as sales forecasts were revised down.

Market Risks

Key risks include weaker-than-expected consumption, volatility in raw material prices, keen competition, and execution risks on M&As.

China Mengniu Dairy Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, produces and distributes dairy products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Liquid Milk Products, Ice Cream Products, Milk Powder Products, and Others. The Liquid Milk Products segment produces and distributes ultra-high temperature milk, milk beverages, fresh milk, and yogurt. The Ice Cream Products segment produces and distributes ice cream. The Milk Powder Products segment produces and distributes milk powder. The Others segment engages in the provision of cheese and plant-based nutrition products, as well as trading business. It also offers organic food and formula products for babies and toddlers. The company offers its dairy products under the MENGNIU brand. China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

How the Company Makes Money

China Mengniu Dairy Co. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse portfolio of dairy products. The company's key revenue streams include liquid milk, yogurt, and milk beverages, which constitute the largest portion of its income. Mengniu also earns from its ice cream products and infant formula, which have seen growing demand. The company leverages a robust distribution network and strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors to ensure widespread availability of its products. Additionally, Mengniu invests in marketing and brand-building initiatives to enhance its market presence and consumer loyalty, further driving sales. The company's earnings are also supported by its efforts in product innovation and expansion into international markets.

China Mengniu Dairy Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

China Mengniu Dairy Co demonstrates strong revenue generation and operational efficiency, but struggles with profitability and return on equity. The increased leverage on the balance sheet could pose financial risks, though cash flows are robust, indicating operational stability.

Income Statement

China Mengniu Dairy Co has shown a consistent increase in total revenue over the years, although there was a decline in 2023. The gross profit margin is healthy, indicated by a 2023 margin of approximately 37.1%. EBIT margin shows improvement over recent years, closing at 6.8% in 2023, highlighting efficient operations. However, the net profit margin is relatively low, at just 0.1% in 2023, suggesting challenges in translating revenue into profit.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased, standing at about 0.84 in 2023, reflecting a higher leverage than in previous years, which could pose financial risk. The equity ratio is stable, maintaining around 38.5% in 2023, demonstrating a solid equity base. However, the return on equity has significantly decreased, falling to around 0.2% in 2023, indicating challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains robust, slightly declining to HKD 8.3 billion in 2023. The free cash flow growth is positive, indicating effective capital spending control. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, showcasing the company's ability to generate cash relative to its net income. Nonetheless, the free cash flow to net income ratio might highlight issues due to low net income in 2023.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	88.67B	98.62B	92.59B	88.14B	76.03B
Gross Profit	35.09B	36.64B	32.69B	32.39B	28.63B
EBITDA	5.87B	11.18B	10.51B	9.01B	6.86B
Net Income	104.51M	4.81B	5.30B	5.03B	3.53B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	106.29B	115.22B	117.81B	98.10B	80.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	25.48B	13.66B	19.59B	15.88B	19.15B
Total Debt	34.64B	37.41B	39.11B	27.03B	18.94B
Total Liabilities	58.27B	64.57B	67.76B	56.10B	42.90B
Stockholders Equity	41.56B	44.32B	40.10B	36.83B	32.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.86B	4.21B	3.27B	1.32B	933.39M
Operating Cash Flow	8.33B	8.35B	8.33B	7.54B	5.35B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.50B	-285.83M	-14.86B	-15.44B	4.82B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.33B	-6.80B	4.15B	6.77B	-4.57B

China Mengniu Dairy Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 16.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2319, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.77, below the 50-day MA of 17.48, and below the 200-day MA of 16.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:2319.

China Mengniu Dairy Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	€7.68B	15.68	12.45%	2.51%	2.04%	4.27%
2319	61 Neutral	$63.87B	566.09	0.21%	24.42%	-11.90%	-97.93%
WWNTF		$8.24B	13.55	25.49%	4.80%	―	―
WHGRF		$12.34B	7.65	15.73%	21.33%	―	―
TCYMF		$8.26B	15.85	26.55%	3.19%	―	―
6186	68 Neutral	HK$51.72B	13.35	14.06%	2.84%	4.18%	3.39%
1717	66 Neutral	HK$3.65B	14.27	4.14%	2.93%	-1.56%	30.87%

China Mengniu Dairy Co Corporate Events

China Mengniu Dairy Passes Key Resolutions at AGM, Approves Final Dividend

At the Annual General Meeting held on June 12, 2025, China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited successfully passed all proposed resolutions, including the approval of the final dividend for the year ended December 31, 2024. The resolutions also included the re-election of directors and the re-appointment of KPMG as auditors, reflecting strong shareholder support. The company’s decision to distribute a final dividend underscores its commitment to returning value to shareholders, while the re-election of directors and auditors ensures continuity in governance and oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2319) stock is a Buy with a HK$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Mengniu Dairy Co stock, see the HK:2319 Stock Forecast page.

China Mengniu Dairy Updates 2024 Final Dividend Details

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited has announced an update to its final cash dividend for the year ended December 31, 2024. The dividend, declared at RMB 0.509 per share, will be paid in Hong Kong dollars at a rate of HKD 0.5564 per share, with an exchange rate of RMB 1 to HKD 1.0931. This update reflects changes in the default currency and exchange rate for the dividend payment. The ex-dividend date is set for June 16, 2025, with the payment date scheduled for June 27, 2025. This announcement may impact shareholders and stakeholders by providing clarity on the financial returns and currency considerations.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2319) stock is a Buy with a HK$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Mengniu Dairy Co stock, see the HK:2319 Stock Forecast page.

China Mengniu Dairy Announces 2025 AGM and Key Resolutions

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited has announced its upcoming annual general meeting, scheduled for June 12, 2025, in Hong Kong. Key agenda items include the review of the 2024 financial statements, approval of a final dividend of RMB 0.509 per share, re-election of directors, and re-appointment of KPMG as auditors. Additionally, the company seeks approval for a share repurchase program, allowing the repurchase of up to 10% of its share capital, which could impact its market positioning and shareholder value.