China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $64.63B
• Dividend Yield: 3.33%
• Average Volume (3M): 21.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 574.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: -11.90%
• EPS Growth: -97.93%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 41,058
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.82
• Shares Outstanding: 3,903,768,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,397,327
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 21,732,024
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.32
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.56
• 1Y Price Target: $21.72
• Price Target Upside: 32.06% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$17.00 ▲(3.34% Upside)

The overall stock score is primarily influenced by the company's solid financial performance, despite challenges in profitability and increased leverage. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, though the dividend yield offers some compensation. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events did not impact the score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Operating margin rose due to lower raw milk prices and effective cost management.

Product Expansion

Shiny Meadow, Mengniu's fresh milk brand, delivered over 20% sales growth and is set to expand further.

Strategic Partnerships

Mengniu is strengthening B2B partnerships with bakeries, coffee, and tea chains, supporting topline growth.

Negative Factors

Earnings Revision

Earnings were cut by 3% as sales forecasts were revised down.

Market Risks

Key risks include weaker-than-expected consumption, volatility in raw material prices, keen competition, and execution risks on M&As.

China Mengniu Dairy Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, produces and distributes dairy products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Liquid Milk Products, Ice Cream Products, Milk Powder Products, and Others. The Liquid Milk Products segment produces and distributes ultra-high temperature milk, milk beverages, fresh milk, and yogurt. The Ice Cream Products segment produces and distributes ice cream. The Milk Powder Products segment produces and distributes milk powder. The Others segment engages in the provision of cheese and plant-based nutrition products, as well as trading business. It also offers organic food and formula products for babies and toddlers. The company offers its dairy products under the MENGNIU brand. China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

How the Company Makes Money

China Mengniu Dairy Co. makes money primarily through the production and sale of dairy products. The company's revenue model is centered around its diverse portfolio of dairy offerings, with key revenue streams coming from liquid milk, milk formula, yogurt, and ice cream sales. Mengniu leverages both traditional retail channels and e-commerce platforms to reach a broad consumer base. Additionally, strategic partnerships, such as joint ventures with international dairy giants and collaborations with local suppliers, play a significant role in its market expansion and product development efforts. These factors, combined with the company's focus on brand building and marketing, contribute significantly to its earnings.

China Mengniu Dairy Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

China Mengniu Dairy Co exhibits solid revenue generation and operational efficiency. However, challenges in profitability and return on equity, along with increased leverage, present financial risks. Despite this, strong cash flows support operational stability.

Income Statement

China Mengniu Dairy Co has shown a consistent increase in total revenue over the years, although there was a decline in 2023. The gross profit margin is healthy, indicated by a 2023 margin of approximately 37.1%. EBIT margin shows improvement over recent years, closing at 6.8% in 2023, highlighting efficient operations. However, the net profit margin is relatively low, at just 0.1% in 2023, suggesting challenges in translating revenue into profit.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased, standing at about 0.84 in 2023, reflecting a higher leverage than in previous years, which could pose financial risk. The equity ratio is stable, maintaining around 38.5% in 2023, demonstrating a solid equity base. However, the return on equity has significantly decreased, falling to around 0.2% in 2023, indicating challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains robust, slightly declining to HKD 8.3 billion in 2023. The free cash flow growth is positive, indicating effective capital spending control. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, showcasing the company's ability to generate cash relative to its net income. Nonetheless, the free cash flow to net income ratio might highlight issues due to low net income in 2023.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	88.67B	98.62B	92.59B	88.14B	76.03B
Gross Profit	35.09B	36.64B	32.69B	32.39B	28.63B
EBITDA	5.87B	11.18B	10.51B	9.01B	6.86B
Net Income	104.51M	4.81B	5.30B	5.03B	3.53B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	106.29B	115.22B	117.81B	98.10B	80.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	25.48B	13.66B	19.59B	15.88B	19.15B
Total Debt	34.64B	37.41B	39.11B	27.03B	18.94B
Total Liabilities	58.27B	64.57B	67.76B	56.10B	42.90B
Stockholders Equity	41.56B	44.32B	40.10B	36.83B	32.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.86B	4.21B	3.27B	1.32B	933.39M
Operating Cash Flow	8.33B	8.35B	8.33B	7.54B	5.35B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.50B	-285.83M	-14.86B	-15.44B	4.82B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.33B	-6.80B	4.15B	6.77B	-4.57B

China Mengniu Dairy Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 16.45
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2319, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.73, below the 50-day MA of 16.63, and below the 200-day MA of 16.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:2319.

China Mengniu Dairy Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2319	56 Neutral	$64.63B	574.05	0.21%	3.33%	-11.90%	-97.93%
Sector *	53 Neutral	C$5.40B	6.74	11.95%	3.32%	4.99%	-1.01%
WWNTF	―	$8.76B	14.36	25.49%	4.62%	―	―
WHGRF	―	$13.45B	7.81	15.40%	8.61%	―	―
TCYMF	―	$8.24B	14.41	32.58%	3.26%	―	―
1717	62 Neutral	HK$4.46B	17.47	4.14%	2.39%	-1.56%	30.87%
6186	55 Neutral	HK$41.30B	10.66	14.06%	6.65%	4.18%	3.39%

China Mengniu Dairy Co Corporate Events

China Mengniu Dairy Schedules Board Meeting for Interim Results

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited has announced a board meeting scheduled for August 27, 2025, to approve the interim results for the first half of the year and consider the payment of an interim dividend. This meeting is significant as it will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and potential shareholder returns, impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2319) stock is a Buy with a HK$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Mengniu Dairy Co stock, see the HK:2319 Stock Forecast page.

China Mengniu Dairy Issues CNY3.5 Billion in Sustainability Bonds

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited has announced the issuance of CNY3.5 billion in sustainability bonds, aimed at refinancing existing debt and supporting eligible green and social projects. The bonds, which are due in 2030 and 2035, will be listed on the Stock Exchange for professional investors, though their issuance is contingent on market conditions and investor interest.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2319) stock is a Buy with a HK$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Mengniu Dairy Co stock, see the HK:2319 Stock Forecast page.

China Mengniu Dairy Announces Proposed Sustainability Bonds Issuance

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited has announced a proposed issuance of sustainability bonds aimed at professional investors. The proceeds from this bond issuance will be used to refinance existing debt and fund projects within eligible green and social categories as part of the company’s sustainable finance framework. The issuance is contingent upon market conditions and investor interest, and the bonds will be listed on the Stock Exchange, although this does not indicate their merits.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2319) stock is a Buy with a HK$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Mengniu Dairy Co stock, see the HK:2319 Stock Forecast page.

China Mengniu Dairy Passes Key Resolutions at AGM, Approves Final Dividend

At the Annual General Meeting held on June 12, 2025, China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited successfully passed all proposed resolutions, including the approval of the final dividend for the year ended December 31, 2024. The resolutions also included the re-election of directors and the re-appointment of KPMG as auditors, reflecting strong shareholder support. The company’s decision to distribute a final dividend underscores its commitment to returning value to shareholders, while the re-election of directors and auditors ensures continuity in governance and oversight.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2319) stock is a Buy with a HK$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Mengniu Dairy Co stock, see the HK:2319 Stock Forecast page.

China Mengniu Dairy Updates 2024 Final Dividend Details

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited has announced an update to its final cash dividend for the year ended December 31, 2024. The dividend, declared at RMB 0.509 per share, will be paid in Hong Kong dollars at a rate of HKD 0.5564 per share, with an exchange rate of RMB 1 to HKD 1.0931. This update reflects changes in the default currency and exchange rate for the dividend payment. The ex-dividend date is set for June 16, 2025, with the payment date scheduled for June 27, 2025. This announcement may impact shareholders and stakeholders by providing clarity on the financial returns and currency considerations.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2319) stock is a Buy with a HK$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Mengniu Dairy Co stock, see the HK:2319 Stock Forecast page.