China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (HK:2319)
:2319
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China Mengniu Dairy Co
(2319)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
HK$18.00
▲(8.89% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/01/26
The score is driven primarily by weakened financial performance (recent revenue declines and materially lower margins/ROE), partly offset by strong operating/free cash generation and improving leverage. Technicals are supportive with price trading above major moving averages and positive MACD, but valuation is a headwind due to a high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Resilient gross margin
Sustained gross margins near 40% indicate strong underlying product economics and pricing power in core dairy lines. Durable gross profitability provides a buffer against input volatility, supports margin recovery initiatives and funds marketing or premiumization over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline trend
Consecutive top-line declines signal weakening demand or market share pressure, constraining scale benefits and pricing leverage. Lower revenues make it harder to absorb fixed costs and invest in growth, posing a medium-term headwind to sustained margin recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Resilient gross margin
Sustained gross margins near 40% indicate strong underlying product economics and pricing power in core dairy lines. Durable gross profitability provides a buffer against input volatility, supports margin recovery initiatives and funds marketing or premiumization over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$67.12B
Dividend Yield3.62%
Average Volume (3M)24.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth-7.24%
EPS Growth1390.75%
CountryHK
Employees41,058
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.39
Shares Outstanding3,878,902,600
10 Day Avg. Volume12,844,630
30 Day Avg. Volume24,120,683
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.29
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio8.32
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$22.24Price Target Upside34.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)1.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$86.23B
China Mengniu Dairy Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, produces and distributes dairy products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Liquid Milk Products, Ice Cream Products...
How the Company Makes Money
Mengniu makes money primarily by producing and selling branded dairy products to distributors, retailers, and direct-to-consumer channels, earning revenue on the volume of products sold and the pricing/mix of its portfolio.
Key revenue streams in...
China Mengniu Dairy Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 82.24B | 88.67B | 98.62B | 92.59B | 88.14B |
| Gross Profit | 32.34B | 35.09B | 36.64B | 32.69B | 32.39B |
| EBITDA | 7.59B | 5.87B | 11.18B | 10.51B | 9.01B |
| Net Income | 1.55B | 104.51M | 4.81B | 5.30B | 5.03B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 96.62B | 106.29B | 115.22B | 117.81B | 98.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.93B | 25.48B | 20.98B | 19.59B | 15.88B |
| Total Debt | 25.40B | 34.64B | 37.41B | 40.04B | 27.03B |
| Total Liabilities | 49.42B | 58.27B | 64.57B | 67.76B | 56.10B |
| Stockholders Equity | 40.54B | 41.56B | 44.32B | 40.10B | 36.83B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.30B | 4.86B | 4.21B | 3.27B | 1.32B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.75B | 8.33B | 8.35B | 8.33B | 7.54B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.34B | -3.50B | -285.83M | -14.86B | -15.44B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.71B | -6.33B | -6.80B | 4.15B | 6.77B |
China Mengniu Dairy Co Technical Analysis
Positive
16.53
Price Trends
16.80
Positive
16.35
Positive
15.76
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
55.78
Neutral
46.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2319, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.14, below the 50-day MA of 16.80, and above the 200-day MA of 15.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:2319.
China Mengniu Dairy Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | HK$68.66B | ― | 24.09% | 5.46% | -1.95% | 20.50% | |
62 Neutral | HK$29.25B | 8.88 | 7.69% | 6.70% | -12.70% | -45.69% | |
59 Neutral | HK$67.12B | -26.78 | 3.79% | 3.62% | -7.24% | 1390.75% | |
58 Neutral | HK$6.54B | 13.00 | 7.63% | 2.21% | -3.39% | 91.63% | |
49 Neutral | HK$8.23B | 15.37 | 3.27% | 1.77% | 10.02% | ― | |
48 Neutral | HK$2.51B | 9.61 | 2.84% | 2.90% | 1.14% | -25.47% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
HK:2319
China Mengniu Dairy Co
17.43
-0.13
-0.76%
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China Mengniu Dairy Co Corporate Events
China Mengniu Dairy Sets 2026 AGM, Dividend and Share Buyback Mandate
Apr 27, 2026
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited has called its annual general meeting for 5 June 2026 in Hong Kong, where shareholders will review the audited financial statements and directors’ and auditors’ reports for the year ended 31 December...
China Mengniu Dairy Grants New Tranche of Restricted Shares Under Incentive Scheme
Mar 31, 2026
China Mengniu Dairy has approved a new grant of 6,584,692 restricted shares under its long-standing restricted share award scheme, representing about 0.185% of its issued share capital at the scheme’s adoption date. The awards are directed t...
Mengniu Profit Surges Despite Revenue Drop as Cash Flow Hits Record and Payouts Rise
Mar 25, 2026
China Mengniu Dairy reported 2025 revenue of RMB82.24 billion, down 7.3% amid shifting consumer demand and channel dynamics, but improved its gross margin to 39.9% and kept operating margin at 8.0%, slightly below 2024 yet above pre-2024 levels. N...
China Mengniu Dairy Proposes Final 2025 Dividend of RMB 0.52 Per Share
Mar 25, 2026
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited has proposed a final ordinary cash dividend of RMB 0.52 per share for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, subject to shareholder approval at a meeting scheduled for 5 June 2026. The move underscores the c...
China Mengniu Sets March 2026 Board Meeting to Approve 2025 Results and Consider Dividend
Mar 9, 2026
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited has scheduled a board meeting for 25 March 2026 to review and approve the annual results of the company and its subsidiaries for the year ended 31 December 2025. The board will also consider the payment of a fin...
Mengniu flags 2025 revenue drop but sees profit rebound despite impairments
Mar 6, 2026
China Mengniu Dairy has warned that revenue for 2025 is expected to fall by about 7% to 8% year-on-year as consumer demand, sales channels and competitive conditions continue to shift, eroding economies of scale and slightly narrowing operating ma...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.