China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$58.53B
• Dividend Yield: 3.62%
• Average Volume (3M): 17.89M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.17
• Revenue Growth: -7.36%
• EPS Growth: -107.25%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 41,058
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 3,878,902,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 19,300,298
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 17,887,854
• PEG Ratio: -6.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.33
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$27.61
• Price Target Upside: 88.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.49
• Revenue Forecast (FY): HK$95.31B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: HK$14.50 ▼(-0.89% Downside)

The overall stock score is primarily influenced by solid financial performance, despite challenges in profitability and increased leverage. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with potential for a rebound. Valuation concerns arise from a negative P/E ratio, though the dividend yield offers some compensation. The lack of earnings call and corporate events data limits additional insights.

China Mengniu Dairy Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, produces and distributes dairy products in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Liquid Milk Products, Ice Cream Products, Milk Powder Products, and Others. The Liquid Milk Products segment produces and distributes ultra-high temperature milk, milk beverages, fresh milk, and yogurt. The Ice Cream Products segment produces and distributes ice cream. The Milk Powder Products segment produces and distributes milk powder. The Others segment engages in the provision of cheese and plant-based nutrition products, as well as trading business. It also offers organic food and formula products for babies and toddlers. The company offers its dairy products under the MENGNIU brand. China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

How the Company Makes Money

Mengniu generates revenue through multiple key streams primarily driven by the sale of its dairy products. The company earns substantial income from its liquid milk segment, which includes fresh milk and flavored milk products. Additionally, yogurt products contribute significantly to its revenue, capitalizing on the growing consumer demand for health-oriented dairy options. The ice cream and cheese segments, while smaller, also provide essential revenue streams. Mengniu has established partnerships with various retailers and distributors, enhancing its market reach. Moreover, the company invests in marketing and brand development to strengthen its market position, focusing on expanding its product lines and enhancing consumer engagement, which in turn drives sales growth.

China Mengniu Dairy Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

China Mengniu Dairy Co shows solid revenue generation and operational efficiency, but faces challenges in profitability and return on equity. The balance sheet indicates increased leverage, which may pose financial risks if not managed. Cash flows are generally strong, supporting operational stability. Despite some challenges, the company maintains a stable financial standing with room for improvement in profitability metrics.

Income Statement

China Mengniu Dairy Co has shown a consistent increase in total revenue over the years, although there was a decline in 2023. The gross profit margin is healthy, indicated by a 2023 margin of approximately 37.1%. EBIT margin shows improvement over recent years, closing at 6.8% in 2023, highlighting efficient operations. However, the net profit margin is relatively low, at just 0.1% in 2023, suggesting challenges in translating revenue into profit.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased, standing at about 0.84 in 2023, reflecting a higher leverage than in previous years, which could pose financial risk. The equity ratio is stable, maintaining around 38.5% in 2023, demonstrating a solid equity base. However, the return on equity has significantly decreased, falling to around 0.2% in 2023, indicating challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains robust, slightly declining to HKD 8.3 billion in 2023. The free cash flow growth is positive, indicating effective capital spending control. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, showcasing the company's ability to generate cash relative to its net income. Nonetheless, the free cash flow to net income ratio might highlight issues due to low net income in 2023.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	85.57B	88.67B	98.62B	92.59B	88.14B	76.03B
Gross Profit	34.58B	35.09B	36.64B	32.69B	32.39B	28.63B
EBITDA	6.44B	5.87B	11.18B	10.51B	9.01B	6.86B
Net Income	-295.78M	104.51M	4.81B	5.30B	5.03B	3.53B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	99.79B	106.29B	115.22B	117.81B	98.10B	80.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	24.52B	25.48B	20.98B	19.59B	15.88B	19.15B
Total Debt	29.70B	34.64B	37.41B	40.04B	27.03B	18.94B
Total Liabilities	51.77B	58.27B	64.57B	67.76B	56.10B	42.90B
Stockholders Equity	41.35B	41.56B	44.32B	40.10B	36.83B	32.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.32B	4.86B	4.21B	3.27B	1.32B	933.39M
Operating Cash Flow	9.22B	8.33B	8.35B	8.33B	7.54B	5.35B
Investing Cash Flow	-950.91M	-3.50B	-285.83M	-14.86B	-15.44B	4.82B
Financing Cash Flow	-15.01B	-6.33B	-6.80B	4.15B	6.77B	-4.57B

China Mengniu Dairy Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.63
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2319, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.15, below the 50-day MA of 14.88, and below the 200-day MA of 16.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:2319.

China Mengniu Dairy Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
0288	75 Outperform	HK$109.70B	8.71	15.40%	6.66%	5.98%	62.13%
0151	67 Neutral	HK$55.24B	12.21	24.70%	3.26%	2.03%	1.43%
0322	67 Neutral	HK$68.03B	15.30	32.58%	5.46%	-1.68%	22.06%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
1717	59 Neutral	HK$3.63B	12.42	4.53%	2.90%	0.52%	99.51%
2319	56 Neutral	HK$58.53B	-181.56	-0.74%	3.62%	-7.36%	-107.25%
6186	55 Neutral	HK$36.05B	12.38	10.48%	6.70%	-0.64%	-24.62%

China Mengniu Dairy Co Corporate Events

China Mengniu Dairy Sets Out New Terms of Reference for Nomination Committee

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited has formalised detailed terms of reference for its Nomination Committee, setting out its constitution, membership structure, authority and key responsibilities. The committee must comprise at least three members, with a majority being independent non-executive directors, and is empowered to obtain information from employees and seek independent professional advice at the company’s expense. Its core duties include regularly reviewing the size, structure, composition and diversity of the board, maintaining a board skills matrix, identifying and recommending suitably qualified candidates for directorships, assessing the performance and independence of independent non-executive directors, and overseeing succession planning for the chairman and chief executive. The move underscores Mengniu’s emphasis on board diversity, governance rigor and structured succession planning, which is likely to support stronger corporate oversight and align the board’s capabilities with the company’s strategic objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2319) stock is a Hold with a HK$14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Mengniu Dairy Co stock, see the HK:2319 Stock Forecast page.