Prada SpA (HK:1913)
:1913
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Prada SpA
(1913)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
HK$43.00
▲(9.58% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying profitability and generally solid cash generation, tempered by higher leverage and signs of slowing top-line momentum. Technical indicators are the main drag (price below key moving averages and negative MACD), while valuation (reasonable P/E and a ~3.65% yield) and a broadly positive earnings-call outlook partially offset near-term risks (FX headwinds and Versace transition losses).
Positive Factors
High Profitability & Margins
Prada’s consistently high gross margins and rising EBIT margin reflect durable product-level pricing power, favorable channel mix and operating leverage inherent in luxury leather goods. These structural margins support cash generation and reinvestment capacity over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
The marked increase in leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk if demand weakens. Higher debt levels constrain room for opportunistic spending and increase sensitivity to interest-rate and cyclical retail shocks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability & Margins
Prada’s consistently high gross margins and rising EBIT margin reflect durable product-level pricing power, favorable channel mix and operating leverage inherent in luxury leather goods. These structural margins support cash generation and reinvestment capacity over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Prada SpA (1913) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$100.41B
Dividend Yield3.17%
Average Volume (3M)1.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.4
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth11.70%
EPS Growth12.44%
CountryHK
Employees15,216
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLuxury Goods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.45
Shares Outstanding2,558,824,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,611,685
30 Day Avg. Volume1,655,542
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-5.07
Price to Book (P/B)2.71
Price to Sales (P/S)2.29
P/FCF Ratio12.54
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$58.25Price Target Upside48.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$6.50B
Prada SpA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Prada S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, and distributes leather goods, handbags, footwear, apparel, and accessories in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Japan, the Middle East, and Africa. It offers its products unde...
How the Company Makes Money
Prada S.p.A. makes money primarily by selling luxury products across its brand portfolio. Its core revenue stream is retail sales through directly operated stores (DOS) in key luxury markets, where the company captures the full retail margin on pr...
Prada SpA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: solid group revenue and retail growth, strong outperformance from Miu Miu, steady adjusted profitability and improved working capital, accompanied by strategic investments in digital, stores and sustainability. Key near‑term challenges include FX headwinds, Prada's modest decline (now improving), selective wholesale disruption, and the expected dilutive, transitional impact from the newly acquired Versace business as it is repositioned. Management emphasized discipline, margin protection (ex‑Versace), and a patient, phased plan for Versace and store/channel optimization.Positive Updates
Group Revenue Growth
Net revenues of EUR 5.7 billion, up 9% versus FY24 at constant FX and +8% organic year‑on‑year (reported growth +5% after a c.380 bps FX headwind). This marks the fifth consecutive year of group growth.
Negative Updates
Prada Brand Softness
Prada retail finished the year down 1% (full year); although Q4 turned positive, Prada faced tough mid‑year periods and remains on a recovery/normalization path.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue Growth
Net revenues of EUR 5.7 billion, up 9% versus FY24 at constant FX and +8% organic year‑on‑year (reported growth +5% after a c.380 bps FX headwind). This marks the fifth consecutive year of group growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said the group is targeting continued solid, sustainable organic growth for Prada, Miu Miu and the Group in 2026 despite meaningful FX headwinds similar to 2025 (FY25 FX drag ~380bps), and that—excluding Versace—they expect ongoing organic margin progression and the ability to deliver a steady EBIT margin provided reported top‑line growth stays in the mid‑single‑digit range; Versace (full‑year pro‑forma revenues ~€680m, one month consolidated in 2025) will be a transition year with a mid‑single‑digit revenue contraction at constant FX (likely high‑single‑digit at reported FX), gross margin expected to be relatively stable (duties caveat), and an EBIT loss in 2026 targeted to be a limited “two‑digit” figure while initial synergies and selective reinvestment support a progressive improvement from 2027; management also flagged CapEx should start to decline as a percentage of sales (FY25 CapEx €617m, €535m ex‑real estate), marketing will rise slightly as a percent of sales, and efficiency gains in labor, rent and G&A are expected to help offset pressures.Prada SpA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.50B | 5.43B | 4.73B | 4.20B | 3.37B |
| Gross Profit | 4.42B | 4.34B | 3.80B | 3.31B | 2.55B |
| EBITDA | 2.06B | 2.01B | 1.73B | 1.42B | 1.09B |
| Net Income | 819.73M | 838.91M | 671.03M | 465.19M | 294.25M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.01B | 8.55B | 7.62B | 7.38B | 6.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.26B | 1.01B | 689.52M | 1.09B | 981.79M |
| Total Debt | 4.82B | 2.79B | 2.60B | 2.67B | 2.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.35B | 4.13B | 3.74B | 3.88B | 3.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.64B | 4.40B | 3.85B | 3.48B | 3.11B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.00B | 1.19B | 395.61M | 882.20M | 923.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.59B | 1.65B | 1.16B | 1.12B | 1.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.75B | -462.45M | -759.19M | -250.21M | -137.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 432.67M | -875.47M | -775.73M | -787.38M | -494.73M |
Prada SpA Technical Analysis
Negative
39.24
Price Trends
41.03
Negative
43.32
Negative
44.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.07
Positive
45.95
Neutral
48.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1913, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.24, below the 50-day MA of 41.03, and below the 200-day MA of 44.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1913.
Prada SpA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | HK$2.43B | 4.06 | 5.10% | 4.05% | 6.60% | -14.32% | |
73 Outperform | HK$14.23B | 5.90 | 9.54% | 4.43% | 10.89% | 2.02% | |
69 Neutral | HK$114.35B | 20.10 | 51.43% | 2.51% | 226.65% | 278.96% | |
68 Neutral | HK$100.41B | 15.36 | 19.16% | 3.17% | 11.70% | 12.44% | |
64 Neutral | HK$110.79B | 15.23 | 23.74% | 4.21% | -9.49% | 32.56% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | HK$8.58B | 1.57 | 9.13% | 4.60% | -10.41% | 67.25% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HK:1913
Prada SpA
38.70
-15.15
-28.13%
HK:0116
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12.29
5.51
81.16%
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10.69
2.02
23.33%
HK:0887
Emperor Watch & Jewellery
0.32
0.11
55.17%
HK:0590
Luk Fook Holdings (International)
23.04
8.71
60.80%
HK:6181
Laopu Gold Co. Ltd. Class H
618.50
-85.85
-12.19%
Prada SpA Corporate Events
Prada Sets Virtual AGM for April 30, 2026 to Approve 2025 Results
Mar 18, 2026
Prada S.p.A. has convened its annual shareholders’ general meeting for April 30, 2026, to be held via an online audio/video platform in line with Italian emergency regulations that allow virtual-only assemblies. Shareholders as of April 28, ...
Prada declares final 2025 dividend with 26% Italian withholding for Hong Kong shareholders
Mar 5, 2026
Prada S.p.A., a leading Italian luxury fashion house listed in Hong Kong, continues to serve an international investor base holding its shares through the Hong Kong share register. The group’s structure and use of the CCASS system mean many ...
Prada Lifts 2025 Revenues as Miu Miu and Versace Bolster Global Luxury Push
Mar 5, 2026
Prada reported consolidated net revenues of €5.72 billion for 2025, up 9.1% at constant exchange rates, driven by 9.3% retail sales growth and strong momentum at Miu Miu, which surged 34.8%. Sales rose across all major regions, with particul...
Prada Sets March 2026 Board Meeting to Approve 2025 Results and Final Dividend
Feb 19, 2026
Prada S.p.A. has scheduled a meeting of its Board of Directors for March 5, 2026, to approve the annual results for the year ended December 31, 2025, and to consider a recommendation on the payment of a final dividend. The upcoming board meeting w...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.