China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (HK:1866)
:1866
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China XLX Fertiliser Ltd.
(1866)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
HK$13.50
â–²(59.20% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/05/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening financial performance—margin and earnings deterioration, higher leverage, and deeply negative free cash flow in the last two years. This is partly offset by strong technical uptrend signals and a relatively low P/E with a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Stable core business: nitrogen fertiliser manufacturing
The company’s core revenue is generated from manufacturing and selling nitrogen-based fertilisers to distributors, wholesalers and farms. This product-focused, recurring end-market exposure ties revenue to structural agricultural demand and supports predictable volume-driven sales over the intermediate term.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and debt reliance
Debt-to-equity rising to ~1.81 signals heavier reliance on debt funding. Increased leverage constrains financial flexibility, elevates interest expense sensitivity and refinancing risk, and limits the company’s ability to invest or weather further margin pressure without additional external funding.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable core business: nitrogen fertiliser manufacturing
The company’s core revenue is generated from manufacturing and selling nitrogen-based fertilisers to distributors, wholesalers and farms. This product-focused, recurring end-market exposure ties revenue to structural agricultural demand and supports predictable volume-driven sales over the intermediate term.
Read all positive factors
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (1866) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$16.18B
Dividend Yield3.23%
Average Volume (3M)2.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth9.64%
EPS Growth-37.53%
CountryHK
Employees11,787
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.75
Shares Outstanding1,283,241,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,461,100
30 Day Avg. Volume2,602,280
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.29
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.40
P/FCF Ratio-3.77
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$15.01Price Target Upside77.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$30.21B
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (1866) is a leading manufacturer and supplier of chemical fertilizers, primarily operating within the agricultural sector. The company specializes in the production of urea, ammonium nitrate, and other nitrogen-based fert...
How the Company Makes Money
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling fertiliser products. Its core revenue stream is sales of nitrogen-based fertilisers (such as urea and related nitrogen fertiliser products), sold to downstream customers ...
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 24.70B | 23.13B | 23.48B | 23.07B | 16.98B |
| Gross Profit | 3.71B | 3.93B | 4.17B | 4.35B | 4.39B |
| EBITDA | 3.49B | 3.38B | 3.75B | 4.13B | 3.83B |
| Net Income | 907.90M | 1.46B | 1.19B | 1.33B | 1.30B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 38.78B | 32.52B | 29.13B | 27.87B | 25.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.55B | 895.06M | 1.17B | 1.48B | 906.19M |
| Total Debt | 17.61B | 13.07B | 11.76B | 12.71B | 11.93B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.30B | 20.00B | 18.62B | 18.30B | 17.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.75B | 8.96B | 7.69B | 6.89B | 5.69B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.64B | -1.52B | 1.86B | 612.63M | -1.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.38B | 3.35B | 5.33B | 4.38B | 2.75B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.41B | -4.29B | -3.47B | -3.72B | -3.73B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.35B | 665.77M | -2.16B | -82.18M | 1.19B |
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Technical Analysis
Positive
8.48
Price Trends
11.15
Positive
10.09
Positive
8.53
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Negative
57.69
Neutral
70.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1866, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.04, below the 50-day MA of 11.15, and below the 200-day MA of 8.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1866.
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | HK$11.52B | 15.60 | 11.27% | 3.66% | 9.16% | 17.90% | |
68 Neutral | HK$7.74B | 14.09 | 11.69% | 1.98% | 11.37% | 17.71% | |
63 Neutral | HK$13.05B | 7.63 | 5.19% | 5.44% | 0.79% | -9.29% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | HK$16.18B | 7.93 | 9.60% | 3.23% | 9.64% | -37.53% | |
42 Neutral | HK$13.67B | 75.33 | 0.46% | 1.16% | -17.38% | 224.44% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HK:1866
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd.
12.73
8.67
213.55%
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China BlueChemical
2.83
1.06
60.16%
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1.61
0.54
50.33%
HK:0509
Century Sunshine Group Holdings Limited
0.17
0.00
0.00%
HK:1907
China Risun Group Ltd.
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0.61
24.80%
HK:9879
Migao Group Holdings Limited
8.21
3.00
57.58%
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Corporate Events
China XLX Fertiliser Sets May Board Meeting to Approve Q1 2026 Results
May 5, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has scheduled a board meeting for 15 May 2026 to review and approve the unaudited first-quarter results for the period ended 31 March 2026. The company plans to publish these quarterly figures on the Hong Kong Stock Excha...
China XLX Fertiliser Updates Timetable for 2025 Final Dividend
Apr 28, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has updated details of its proposed final dividend for the financial year ended 31 December 2025, declaring a payout of RMB 0.32 per share, equivalent to HKD 0.37 based on a set exchange rate. The update primarily revises...
China XLX Fertiliser Updates Final Dividend Details for 2025
Apr 27, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd., a fertiliser producer listed in Hong Kong, manufactures and sells chemical fertilisers serving the broader agricultural sector. The company operates through its equity listing under stock code 01866 and maintains its Hon...
China XLX Fertiliser Sets 2026 AGM With Dividend and Share Buyback Mandate
Apr 27, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has called its 2026 annual general meeting for 23 June 2026 in Henan Province, where shareholders will review and adopt the audited financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, approve a final dividend of RMB...
China XLX Fertiliser Forecasts Up to 52% Profit Jump on Higher Prices and New Capacity
Apr 13, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser expects revenue from its principal operations for the quarter ended 31 March 2026 to reach RMB6.7 billion to RMB7.0 billion, up 15% to 20% year on year, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising 41% to 52% to between...
China XLX Fertiliser’s Controlling Shareholder Completes Family Trust Share Transfer
Apr 2, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has announced a completed family trust arrangement by its controlling shareholder, Mr. Liu, involving the transfer of 23 million shares from major shareholder Pioneer Top to Kellaan, a company wholly owned by the trustee ...
China XLX Fertiliser Posts Higher Revenue but Lower 2025 Profit as One-Off Gains Fade
Mar 27, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser reported revenue of RMB25.35 billion for 2025, up from RMB23.13 billion a year earlier, driven by its core fertiliser operations despite higher costs. Gross profit edged down to RMB3.81 billion, while finance costs and operati...
China XLX Fertiliser Proposes Final Dividend of RMB 0.32 Per Share for 2025
Mar 27, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd., a Hong Kong-listed fertiliser producer serving agricultural markets, has detailed the board and independent non-executive directors overseeing its governance. The company maintains its Hong Kong share register through Tr...
China XLX Fertiliser Sets March 2026 Board Meeting to Approve 2025 Results
Mar 17, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has scheduled a board meeting for 27 March 2026 to review and approve the consolidated annual results for the financial year ended 31 December 2025. The board will also consider whether to recommend a final dividend, a de...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.