China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (HK:1866)
:1866
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China XLX Fertiliser Ltd.
(1866)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
HK$11.50
▲(35.61% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/03/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance in operations but constrained by high leverage and negative free cash flow. Technicals add support with an established uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is a key positive with a low P/E and a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Stable revenue and gross margin
Consistent TTM revenue growth (1.29%) and a steady ~17% gross margin indicate durable demand for core fertilizer products. Stable gross margins reflect cost discipline and pricing power in an essential-input industry, supporting predictable earnings over months.
Negative Factors
High financial leverage
A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.46 is a material leverage burden that can amplify earnings volatility and limit strategic flexibility. Elevated leverage raises refinancing and interest coverage risk, particularly if fertilizer prices or margins deteriorate over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Stable revenue and gross margin
Consistent TTM revenue growth (1.29%) and a steady ~17% gross margin indicate durable demand for core fertilizer products. Stable gross margins reflect cost discipline and pricing power in an essential-input industry, supporting predictable earnings over months.
Read all positive factors
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (1866) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$14.09B
Dividend Yield3.23%
Average Volume (3M)2.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.0
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth0.82%
EPS Growth2.99%
CountryHK
Employees11,787
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.28
Shares Outstanding1,283,241,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,461,100
30 Day Avg. Volume2,602,280
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)0.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.20
P/FCF Ratio-3.07
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$15.01Price Target Upside77.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$30.21B
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (1866) is a leading manufacturer and supplier of chemical fertilizers, primarily operating within the agricultural sector. The company specializes in the production of urea, ammonium nitrate, and other nitrogen-based fert...
How the Company Makes Money
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its chemical fertilizers, which are marketed to agricultural producers and distributors across China and potentially in other regions. The company benefits from economies of...
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 23.73B | 23.13B | 23.48B | 23.07B | 16.98B | 10.44B |
| Gross Profit | 3.62B | 3.93B | 4.17B | 4.35B | 4.39B | 2.21B |
| EBITDA | 3.24B | 3.38B | 3.75B | 4.13B | 3.83B | 1.82B |
| Net Income | 1.37B | 1.46B | 1.19B | 1.33B | 1.30B | 347.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 36.04B | 32.52B | 29.13B | 27.87B | 25.51B | 20.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.37B | 895.06M | 1.17B | 1.48B | 906.19M | 698.13M |
| Total Debt | 15.75B | 13.07B | 11.76B | 12.71B | 11.93B | 9.94B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.90B | 20.00B | 18.62B | 18.30B | 17.55B | 14.53B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.55B | 8.96B | 7.69B | 6.89B | 5.69B | 4.53B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.99B | -1.52B | 1.86B | 612.63M | -1.11B | -2.23B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.52B | 3.35B | 5.33B | 4.38B | 2.75B | 1.70B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.12B | -4.29B | -3.47B | -3.72B | -3.73B | -3.90B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.94B | 665.77M | -2.16B | -82.18M | 1.19B | 2.00B |
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Technical Analysis
Positive
8.48
Price Trends
11.07
Positive
9.79
Positive
8.30
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
51.61
Neutral
74.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1866, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.17, below the 50-day MA of 11.07, and above the 200-day MA of 8.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1866.
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | HK$14.09B | 10.97 | 9.60% | 3.23% | 0.82% | 2.99% | |
71 Outperform | HK$11.24B | 7.77 | 11.27% | 3.66% | -0.34% | 64.10% | |
70 Outperform | HK$13.37B | 10.56 | 5.19% | 5.44% | -8.24% | -24.53% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | HK$1.20B | 18.52 | 2.55% | 3.52% | -5.29% | -32.47% | |
59 Neutral | HK$1.24B | 7.69 | 7.36% | 2.20% | -8.51% | -68.34% | |
52 Neutral | HK$5.78B | 8.07 | 7.70% | ― | 9.20% | 213.87% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HK:1866
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd.
10.98
7.17
188.19%
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China BlueChemical
2.90
1.21
71.39%
HK:0297
Sinofert Holdings
1.60
0.51
46.79%
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Tiande Chemical Holdings Limited
1.37
0.39
39.80%
HK:1702
Dongguang Chemical Ltd.
1.99
0.50
33.56%
HK:2198
China Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Co., Ltd.
4.93
3.48
240.00%
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Corporate Events
China XLX Fertiliser Launches HK$200 Million Share Buy-Back Plan
Jan 12, 2026
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has approved a new share repurchase scheme that authorises market buy-backs of up to 10% of its issued share capital (excluding treasury shares), capped at HK$200 million, for the period from 13 January 2026 to 31 Decembe...
China XLX Fertiliser Granted Waiver for Joint Company Secretary Compliance
Nov 19, 2025
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd., listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, has been granted a new waiver from strict compliance with certain listing rules due to a change in joint company secretary. This waiver, effective until June 2028, allows Ms. Cheok...
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Announces Key Corporate Secretarial Changes
Nov 13, 2025
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced a change in its corporate secretarial team, with Mr. Man Yun Wah resigning and Ms. Kam Mei Ha Wendy taking over as Joint Company Secretary, Authorised Representative, and Process Agent. The company also received...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.