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China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (HK:1866)
:1866
Hong Kong Market
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China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (1866) AI Stock Analysis

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HK:1866

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd.

(1866)

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Outperform 77 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
HK$9.00
▲(24.14% Upside)
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. receives a strong overall score driven by robust technical analysis and attractive valuation. The stock's bullish momentum and undervaluation are significant positives. However, financial performance is hindered by high leverage and negative free cash flow, which slightly dampens the overall score.

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (1866) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionChina XLX Fertiliser Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the development, manufacture, sale, and trade of urea primarily in Mainland China and internationally. It also offers compound fertilizers, methanol, liquid ammonia, dimethyl ether, melamine, furfuryl alcohol, furfural, humic acid, 2-methylfuran, vehicles urea solutions, and related differentiated products, as well as pharmaceutical intermediates. In addition, it mines and sells coal; and distributes and sells electricity. Further, the company is involved in the manufacture and trading of gas, testing equipment, and intelligent equipment; and agricultural production, international business and trading, technological development, and consulting activities. China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Xinxiang, the People's Republic of China.
How the Company Makes MoneyChina XLX Fertiliser Ltd. makes money through the production and sale of various fertilizers and chemical products. The company's primary revenue streams include the sale of urea, a nitrogen-based fertilizer widely used in agriculture, and compound fertilizers, which are blended to provide multiple nutrients. Additionally, the company may engage in partnerships or agreements with agricultural distributors and suppliers to expand its market reach and distribution networks. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the demand for agricultural products, the company's production capacity, and its ability to maintain competitive pricing in the market.

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. demonstrates stable revenue growth and operational efficiency, but faces challenges with high leverage and negative free cash flow. The company should focus on improving cash flow management and reducing debt levels to enhance financial stability.
Income Statement
75
Positive
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. shows a stable revenue growth trajectory with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.29%. The gross profit margin remains consistent at around 17%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 6.31% in the TTM, reflecting some pressure on profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting strong operational performance.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.46, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. However, the return on equity is robust at 14.82%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is not explicitly provided, but the balance sheet shows a solid equity base relative to assets.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Operating cash flow remains positive, but free cash flow is negative, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.18, suggesting moderate cash generation efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.09, highlighting the need for improved cash management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue23.73B23.13B23.48B23.07B16.98B10.44B
Gross Profit3.62B3.93B4.17B4.35B4.39B2.21B
EBITDA3.24B3.38B3.75B4.27B3.83B1.82B
Net Income1.37B1.46B1.19B1.33B1.30B347.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets36.04B32.52B29.13B27.87B25.51B20.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.37B895.06M1.17B1.48B906.19M698.13M
Total Debt15.75B13.07B11.76B12.71B11.93B9.94B
Total Liabilities22.90B20.00B18.62B18.30B17.55B14.53B
Stockholders Equity9.55B8.96B7.69B6.89B5.69B4.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-2.99B-1.52B1.86B612.63M-1.11B-2.23B
Operating Cash Flow2.52B3.35B5.33B4.38B2.75B1.70B
Investing Cash Flow-5.12B-4.29B-3.47B-3.72B-3.73B-3.90B
Financing Cash Flow2.94B665.77M-2.16B-82.18M1.19B2.00B

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price7.25
Price Trends
50DMA
7.50
Negative
100DMA
6.69
Positive
200DMA
5.33
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Positive
RSI
44.88
Neutral
STOCH
15.79
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1866, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.64, below the 50-day MA of 7.50, and above the 200-day MA of 5.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HK:1866.

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
HK$9.34B5.9715.41%3.74%0.82%2.99%
HK$10.47B8.7410.34%3.76%-0.34%64.10%
HK$11.02B9.975.60%5.44%-8.24%-24.53%
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
HK$1.17B16.283.61%1.85%-8.51%-68.34%
HK$2.93B3.8913.87%9.20%213.87%
HK$1.26B19.482.46%3.57%-5.29%-32.47%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HK:1866
China XLX Fertiliser Ltd.
7.28
3.58
96.76%
HK:3983
China BlueChemical
2.41
0.51
26.98%
HK:0297
Sinofert Holdings
1.49
0.39
35.58%
HK:0609
Tiande Chemical Holdings Limited
1.40
0.27
23.89%
HK:1702
Dongguang Chemical Ltd.
1.95
0.07
3.72%
HK:2198
China Sanjiang Fine Chemicals Co., Ltd.
2.53
0.82
47.95%

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Corporate Events

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Reports Temporary Output Decline Amid Strategic Maintenance
Oct 24, 2025

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced a temporary decline in product output due to planned maintenance at its production bases, which impacted its sales volume and reduced total profit by approximately RMB226 million in the third quarter of 2025. Despite these challenges, the maintenance improved the operating efficiency of core production equipment, laying a foundation for future stable production and performance recovery. The company also reported a decrease in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 due to low urea prices and increased production costs, but managed to reduce its SG&A expense-to-revenue ratio and financial expenses, enhancing its long-term market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1866) stock is a Buy with a HK$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. stock, see the HK:1866 Stock Forecast page.

China XLX Fertiliser Schedules Board Meeting for Q3 Results
Oct 14, 2025

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced that its Board of Directors will meet on October 24, 2025, to review and approve the unaudited third quarterly results for the period ending September 30, 2025. This meeting is significant for stakeholders as it will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction for the upcoming quarters.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1866) stock is a Buy with a HK$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. stock, see the HK:1866 Stock Forecast page.

China XLX Fertiliser Reports Decreased Profits Amid Strategic Maintenance
Oct 10, 2025

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced a significant decrease in its financial results for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, primarily due to planned maintenance activities at its three major production bases. Despite the short-term impact on production and profits, the maintenance has improved operational efficiency and capacity, setting the stage for stable future production and enhanced market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1866) stock is a Buy with a HK$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. stock, see the HK:1866 Stock Forecast page.

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Launches Phase I of Industrial Chain Extension Project
Sep 23, 2025

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced the successful commissioning of Phase I of its Industrial Chain Extension Project at its Jiangxi Base, with a production capacity of 600,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 1,200,000 tons of slow and controlled-release fertilizer annually. This development is expected to enhance capacity utilization, consolidate cost leadership, and contribute to high-quality, sustainable growth, thereby strengthening the company’s market share and overall competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1866) stock is a Buy with a HK$7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. stock, see the HK:1866 Stock Forecast page.

China XLX Fertiliser Reports Revenue Growth Amid Profit Decline in 1H2025
Aug 8, 2025

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. announced its unaudited interim results for the first half of 2025, reporting a revenue increase to RMB 12.67 billion compared to the previous year. Despite the revenue growth, the company experienced a decline in profit before tax and net profit, attributed to increased costs and expenses, impacting its earnings per share.

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. Schedules Board Meeting for Interim Results
Jul 29, 2025

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. has announced that its board of directors will meet on 8 August 2025 to consider and approve the company’s consolidated interim results for the first half of 2025. This meeting is significant for stakeholders as it will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction for the remainder of the year.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 04, 2025