China Hongqiao Group Ltd. (1378) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$394.36B
• Dividend Yield: 5.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 28.86M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: 15.38%
• EPS Growth: 41.07%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 51,320
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Aluminum
• EPS (TTM): 1.49
• Shares Outstanding: 9,978,706,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 28,177,102
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 28,863,340
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.67
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.95
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$41.33
• Price Target Upside: 3.22% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.57
• Revenue Forecast (FY): HK$171.13B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: HK$40.00 ▼(-0.10% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 01/29/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 01/29/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (notably faster growth and sharply improved profitability) and a supportive valuation (moderate P/E and ~4% dividend yield). Technicals are constructive but overbought signals (RSI/Stoch) raise the risk of a near-term consolidation, slightly limiting the overall score.

Positive Factors

Vertical integration across the aluminum value chain

Owning bauxite mining, alumina refining and smelting gives durable advantages: raw‑material security, capture of upstream margins, and greater control of cost and supply. Over months this reduces input risk and supports consistent production and margin management versus single‑stage peers.

Strong revenue growth with rising margins

Sustained double‑digit revenue growth alongside a large gross margin increase and improved net margin indicate structural operating improvements and pricing power. These trend improvements support long‑term cash generation and reinvestment capacity if maintained across commodity cycles.

Balanced capital structure and improving ROE

A moderate leverage ratio and nearly half of assets funded by equity signal a conservative balance relative to peers, while a high ROE shows efficient use of shareholder capital. Together these support financial flexibility for capex and growth over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Substantial total debt remains a risk

Although leverage is moderate, the company carries a sizable absolute debt stock that can strain cash flow during commodity downturns or higher interest rates. Over 2–6 months this could limit discretionary spending, raise refinancing risk, and constrain strategic flexibility.

Lack of recent operating cash flow disclosure

Missing 2024 operating cash flow data creates uncertainty about cash conversion and the sustainability of dividends, capex and debt service. Historical free cash flow improved, but absent current OCF figures, assessing near‑term liquidity and financial resilience is impaired.

High exposure to commodity and energy price cycles

Aluminum profitability and smelting costs are structurally tied to volatile commodity prices, electricity costs, and raw material access. These persistent external sensitivities can cause sizable margin swings and operational stress across multi‑month horizons, reducing forecast certainty.

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

China Hongqiao Group Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells aluminum products in the People's Republic of China and Indonesia. The company's products include molten aluminum alloys, aluminum alloy ingots, aluminum busbars, aluminum alloy processing, and alumina products. It also engages in the research, development, manufacture, trading, and sale of bauxite; production and sale of electricity; port operation; trading of carbons, iron ores, and light alloy materials; railway design and construction; and provision of financial leasing and business advisory services. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Zouping, the People's Republic of China. China Hongqiao Group Limited is a subsidiary of China Hongqiao Holdings Limited.

How the Company Makes Money

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of aluminum products. The company's key revenue streams come from its aluminum smelting operations, which produce raw aluminum that is sold to various industries, including construction, automotive, and electronics. Additionally, revenue is derived from the processing of aluminum into finished products, which are then distributed both domestically and internationally. The company has established significant partnerships with various industries to secure long-term contracts, contributing to stable revenue flow. Furthermore, its investments in energy generation provide a cost-efficient power supply for its aluminum production, enhancing profit margins. Market demand, pricing of aluminum, and operational efficiencies play crucial roles in the company's overall financial performance.

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong income statement performance (revenue +16.86% YoY and materially higher margins), supported by a solid balance sheet with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity 0.67) and improved ROE (20.75%). The score is tempered by limited latest-period cash flow visibility due to missing 2024 operating cash flow data.

Income Statement

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. displayed robust revenue growth of 16.86% from 2023 to 2024, with an impressive increase in gross profit margin from 15.68% in 2023 to 26.83% in 2024. The net profit margin also improved significantly, reaching 14.32% in 2024, indicating strong profitability. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown positive trends, reflecting efficient operations. The company has demonstrated solid revenue growth and improving profitability metrics.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.67, showing a moderate level of leverage. The equity ratio stands at 47.03%, indicating a balanced capital structure with a healthy level of equity relative to assets. Return on equity improved to 20.75% in 2024, underscoring efficient use of shareholder funds. Despite the strong equity position, the substantial level of total debt remains a potential risk.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow was not reported for 2024, making cash flow analysis challenging for the year. However, free cash flow in 2023 was positive, following a significant increase from prior years. The free cash flow to net income ratio improved over recent years, but the absence of recent data limits comprehensive analysis. Historical trends indicate improving cash flow health.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	163.62B	156.17B	133.62B	131.70B	114.49B	86.14B
Gross Profit	44.83B	42.16B	20.95B	18.24B	30.45B	19.36B
EBITDA	46.45B	43.21B	26.34B	22.58B	32.89B	24.11B
Net Income	25.58B	22.37B	11.46B	8.70B	16.07B	10.50B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	228.46B	229.17B	200.32B	185.74B	188.42B	181.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	48.74B	44.77B	31.72B	27.38B	49.23B	45.47B
Total Debt	76.52B	71.84B	63.86B	59.74B	60.41B	74.92B
Total Liabilities	112.14B	110.55B	94.06B	89.44B	95.98B	104.73B
Stockholders Equity	110.68B	107.80B	92.24B	84.50B	81.31B	71.20B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	25.08B	21.15B	15.13B	-2.66B	21.99B	11.65B
Operating Cash Flow	42.02B	33.98B	22.40B	7.62B	28.65B	17.78B
Investing Cash Flow	-15.51B	-12.56B	-17.89B	-16.77B	-5.46B	-6.97B
Financing Cash Flow	-15.34B	-8.43B	-199.58M	-12.79B	-19.40B	-7.15B

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 40.04
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1378, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.29, above the 50-day MA of 36.16, and above the 200-day MA of 27.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1378.

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
2600	77 Outperform	HK$264.61B	5.82	19.96%	3.32%	20.06%	20.03%
1378	76 Outperform	HK$394.36B	3.12	24.18%	5.10%	15.38%	41.07%
0098	75 Outperform	HK$3.24B	2.87	12.16%	8.68%	10.71%	-22.12%
2899	74 Outperform	HK$1.06T	13.56	30.60%	1.55%	9.69%	54.43%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
2078	48 Neutral	HK$160.72M	-2.77	-0.58%	―	-26.79%	-112.82%
1812	46 Neutral	HK$6.36B	-0.27	―	―	-76.55%	-966.54%

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. Corporate Events

China Hongqiao Subsidiary Forecasts 2025 Profit Boost Driven by Asset Restructuring

China Hongqiao Group Limited announced that its Shenzhen-listed indirect subsidiary, Hongqiao Holdings, has issued a 2025 annual results forecast indicating a sharp turnaround to profitability, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected at RMB 17 billion to RMB 20 billion and basic earnings per share projected between RMB 1.3046 and RMB 1.5348, compared with a small loss before retrospective adjustments a year earlier. The improvement is largely driven by a major asset restructuring completed on 31 December 2025, in which Hongqiao Holdings acquired 100% of Shandong Hongtuo Industrial through a share issue, a business combination under common control that adds substantial non-recurring profit of roughly RMB 18 billion to RMB 21 billion; however, net profit after deducting non-recurring items is still forecast to be a loss of RMB 300 million to RMB 410 million, and the company has cautioned investors that the figures are preliminary, unaudited estimates and that they should exercise care when trading its shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1378) stock is a Buy with a HK$44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Hongqiao Group Ltd. stock, see the HK:1378 Stock Forecast page.

China Hongqiao Confirms Completion Date for Hontron Share Issuance and Shenzhen Listing

China Hongqiao Group Limited, a major aluminium producer incorporated in the Cayman Islands and operating primarily through subsidiaries in Shandong, China, is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and participates in the broader aluminium and power value chain. The company announced that 11,894,744,449 new shares to be issued by Hontron Holding will be listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on 13 January 2026, marking completion of a previously announced share issuance transaction to acquire target shares in Hongtuo Industrial (including those held by Weiqiao Aluminum & Power), a move that finalises a significant restructuring step and may influence its capital structure and positioning in mainland China’s capital markets, while investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing in its securities.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1378) stock is a Buy with a HK$37.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Hongqiao Group Ltd. stock, see the HK:1378 Stock Forecast page.

China Hongqiao Completes Asset Injection as Hontron Holding Secures CSRC Approval

China Hongqiao Group Limited announced that Shandong Hontron Aluminum Industry Holding Company Limited (Hontron Holding) has received regulatory approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to acquire assets by issuing new shares to nine counterparties, including Weiqiao Aluminum & Power, as part of a previously disclosed transaction. Following the approval, 100% equity interest in Hongtuo Industrial has been transferred to Hontron Holding, making Hongtuo Industrial its wholly owned subsidiary, and Hontron Holding will now complete remaining procedures such as registration and listing of the new shares within the prescribed period, a move that consolidates relevant aluminium assets under Hontron and may streamline group structure and operations for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1378) stock is a Buy with a HK$37.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Hongqiao Group Ltd. stock, see the HK:1378 Stock Forecast page.

China Hongqiao Group’s Share Issuance Transaction Approved by Shenzhen Stock Exchange

China Hongqiao Group Limited announced that the Mergers, Acquisitions and Reorganization Review Committee of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has approved a transaction involving the issuance of new shares by Hontron Holding to existing shareholders of Hongtuo Industrial. This transaction, subject to certain conditions, aims to acquire target shares, potentially impacting the company’s market operations and stakeholder interests. Shareholders and investors are advised to exercise caution as the transaction’s completion is contingent on further regulatory approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1378) stock is a Buy with a HK$37.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Hongqiao Group Ltd. stock, see the HK:1378 Stock Forecast page.

China Hongqiao Completes Share Placement and Subscription, Raising HK$11.49 Billion

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. has completed the placing of 400 million existing shares and a top-up subscription of 400 million new shares, raising approximately HK$11,490.1 million. The proceeds will be used for developing domestic and overseas projects, including new energy and the Simandou iron ore project, optimizing the capital structure through debt repayment, and general corporate purposes. This strategic move is expected to enhance the company’s project portfolio and financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1378) stock is a Buy with a HK$34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Hongqiao Group Ltd. stock, see the HK:1378 Stock Forecast page.

China Hongqiao Holdings Increases Stake in China Hongqiao Group

China Hongqiao Group Limited announced that its controlling shareholder, China Hongqiao Holdings Limited, has increased its stake in the company by purchasing 7,500,000 shares, raising its ownership to approximately 64.02%. This move, reflecting confidence in the company’s future prospects, ensures compliance with public float requirements and suggests potential further investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1378) stock is a Buy with a HK$39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Hongqiao Group Ltd. stock, see the HK:1378 Stock Forecast page.

China Hongqiao Group Announces Share Placement and Subscription to Raise HK$11.49 Billion

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. announced a placing and top-up subscription agreement involving the placement of existing shares and the issuance of new shares to Hongqiao Holdings. The transaction is expected to raise approximately HK$11,490.1 million, which will be used for project development, debt repayment, and general corporate purposes. This strategic move is aimed at optimizing the company’s capital structure and supporting its growth initiatives both domestically and overseas.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1378) stock is a Buy with a HK$39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on China Hongqiao Group Ltd. stock, see the HK:1378 Stock Forecast page.