HCW Biologics (HCWB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.67M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.06M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: -78.77%
• EPS Growth: 61.32%
• Country: US
• Employees: 36
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 48
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -6.79
• Shares Outstanding: 2,151,607
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,941,146
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,055,869
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.10
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 38.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.57
• 1Y Price Target: $35.00
• Price Target Upside: 481.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 40 Underperform
• Price Target: $5.50 ▼(-8.64% Downside)

HCW Biologics is facing significant financial and operational challenges, reflected in its poor financial performance and valuation scores. The technical analysis suggests a bearish trend, further impacting the stock's outlook. Despite some positive corporate events, the overall risk remains high.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet and Pipeline Progress

HCW Biologics has made considerable progress in shoring up its balance sheet and advancing its pipeline following a challenging legal issue and arbitration.

Clinical Trials

HCW Biologics announced the clearance of HCW9302 to enter a Phase 1 clinical trial in patients with moderate to severe alopecia areata.

Strategic Partnerships

The agreement with WY Biotech provides important validation for HCW Biologics' new discovery platform and favorable economics.

Negative Factors

Legal and Financial Challenges

Despite recent capital influx, HCW Biologics has remaining legal expenses of $14.4M and may require further capital.

Stock Dilution

Dilution has led to a lower 12-month price target, reduced from $120 to $35 (split-adjusted).

HCW Biologics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HCW Biologics Inc., a preclinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering and developing novel immunotherapies for chronic, low-grade inflammation, and age-related diseases. The company's lead products include HCW9218, which is an injectable immunotherapeutic for patients with pancreatic, ovarian, breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers, as well as pulmonary fibrosis; and HCW9302 for auto-immune diseases, such as alopecia areata and metabolic diseases. It also develops HCW9201, a cell-based therapy that is in Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of patients with relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia; and HCW9206 for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Miramar, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

HCW Biologics generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its proprietary biologic products. The company aims to advance its pipeline candidates through clinical trials and eventually bring them to market, either independently or through strategic partnerships and licensing agreements with larger pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, HCW Biologics may receive revenue from research grants, collaborations, and milestone payments related to its technology platform. The company's earnings are heavily dependent on the successful development and commercialization of its therapeutic candidates, regulatory approvals, and its ability to secure partnerships with key industry players.

HCW Biologics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

HCW Biologics is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenues, high operational losses, and substantial leverage. Negative cash flows and a high debt-to-equity ratio indicate financial distress and instability.

Income Statement

HCW Biologics has experienced declining revenue over the past year, with a negative revenue growth rate. The gross profit margin is positive but very low, indicating challenges in managing costs or pricing. The net profit margin is deeply negative, reflecting significant losses in operations, compounded by negative EBIT and EBITDA margins, which highlight inefficiencies in core business operations.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative equity, indicating potential financial distress. The return on equity is also negative, reflecting losses. The equity ratio is negative, a sign of financial instability and potential risk for creditors. Overall, the balance sheet suggests significant leverage and financial challenges.

Cash Flow

HCW Biologics has negative operating cash flow, indicating cash burn from core operations. The free cash flow is also negative, showing cash outflows exceeding inflows. However, financing activities have provided a cash influx, slightly offsetting cash burn. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting challenges in converting revenue into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.45M	2.57M	2.84M	6.72M	0.00	4.10M
Gross Profit	345.67K	959.40K	560.36K	2.59M	-543.60K	4.10M
EBITDA	-22.95M	-27.68M	-23.58M	-14.18M	-12.82M	-5.25M
Net Income	-24.75M	-30.02M	-24.99M	-14.72M	-12.36M	-5.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	26.29M	30.24M	28.51M	46.81M	53.51M	15.40M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.11M	4.67M	3.60M	32.06M	36.71M	8.46M
Total Debt	6.23M	13.69M	6.30M	6.41M	0.00	567.31K
Total Liabilities	34.85M	37.01M	15.05M	9.38M	2.32M	1.00M
Stockholders Equity	-8.56M	-6.77M	13.46M	37.43M	51.19M	14.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-14.27M	-14.49M	-28.72M	-20.66M	-11.02M	-10.62M
Operating Cash Flow	-14.14M	-14.23M	-22.51M	-10.39M	-10.98M	-10.43M
Investing Cash Flow	-131.91K	-261.62K	3.80M	14.71M	-35.02M	-186.68K
Financing Cash Flow	11.29M	15.57M	-14.53K	6.27M	49.27M	11.72M

HCW Biologics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCWB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.47, above the 50-day MA of 4.40, and below the 200-day MA of 11.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HCWB.

HCW Biologics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.83B	-0.18	-40.10%	2.29%	21.46%	-2.03%
DWTX	49 Neutral	$9.54M	―	-494.11%	―	―	-219.97%
CARM	42 Neutral	$9.95M	―	-362.79%	―	-48.01%	33.60%
HCWB	40 Underperform	$12.67M	―	-9999.00%	―	-78.77%	61.32%
PMCB	―	$6.87M	0.38	67.08%	―	―	―
APRE	40 Underperform	$9.20M	―	-67.54%	―	-34.07%	23.79%
TSBX	34 Underperform		―		―	―	37.25%

HCW Biologics Corporate Events

HCW Biologics Faces Nasdaq Non-Compliance Notice

On June 26, 2025, HCW Biologics Inc. announced that it had received formal notice from Nasdaq confirming its compliance with the Equity Rule for continued listing on the Nasdaq Capital Market. However, the company remains under a Panel Monitor until June 23, 2026, and must request a hearing to address any future non-compliance. On August 19, 2025, HCW Biologics was notified of non-compliance as of June 30, 2025, risking suspension of its securities from trading on Nasdaq unless a hearing is requested by August 26, 2025. The company plans to request a hearing to stay the suspension and is exploring options to regain compliance, though there is no assurance of success.

HCW Biologics Amends Equity Purchase Agreement

On August 14, 2025, HCW Biologics Inc. and Square Gate Capital Master Fund, LLC- Series 4 amended their Equity Purchase Agreement to allow multiple purchases and sales of shares on the same trading day. This amendment could enhance the company’s financial flexibility by enabling more dynamic trading of its shares, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

HCW Biologics Secures $7M License Fee Agreement

On May 29, 2025, WY Biotech Co., Ltd. completed its due diligence on HCW Biologics‘ technical report and chose to proceed with their exclusive license agreement, obligating WY Biotech to pay a $7.0 million upfront license fee. To accommodate WY Biotech’s arrangements with its CDMO and investors, the payment deadline was extended to September 30, 2025, potentially impacting HCW Biologics’ financial operations and stakeholder interests.

HCW Biologics Completes Warrant Exercise with Armistice

On May 13, 2025, HCW Biologics Inc. entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement with Armistice Capital Master Fund Ltd., which included pre-funded warrants for shares of the company’s common stock. By June 18, 2025, Armistice had fully exercised these warrants, purchasing a total of 513,140 shares, indicating a completed transaction with no remaining warrants outstanding.

HCW Biologics Regains Nasdaq Compliance as of June 2025

On June 26, 2025, HCW Biologics Inc. announced it regained compliance with all Nasdaq Capital Market listing requirements, following a formal notice from Nasdaq confirming compliance with the Equity Rule. The company had previously addressed compliance issues related to bid price, public float, and market value of publicly held shares by May 13, 2025. HCW Biologics will remain under a Panel Monitor for a year, ensuring continued adherence to Nasdaq’s standards.

HCW Biologics Board Member Resignation and Director Elections

On June 17, 2025, HCW Biologics Inc. accepted the resignation of Gary M. Winer from its Board of Directors, with no immediate plans to fill his position. The resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company. During the same Annual Meeting, stockholders elected new Class I directors and ratified Crowe LLP as the independent accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. Despite technical difficulties during the virtual meeting, a quorum was achieved, and the meeting was validly held. Broadridge Financial Solutions, the service provider, will send a letter to stockholders with a replay link and a platform for submitting questions.

HCW Biologics Sees Strong Investor Interest in June

On May 13, 2025, HCW Biologics Inc. entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement with Armistice Capital Master Fund Ltd., granting pre-funded warrants for up to 513,140 shares of common stock. Armistice exercised these warrants on several occasions in May and June 2025, purchasing a total of 459,140 shares, with the potential to purchase an additional 54,000 shares, indicating strong investor interest and potential capital infusion for HCW Biologics.

HCW Biologics Meets Nasdaq Listing Requirements in May 2025

In May 2025, HCW Biologics Inc. successfully met Nasdaq’s continued listing requirements by evidencing compliance with the Bid Price Rule and MVPHS Rule, following a series of financial maneuvers including a $6.6 million Senior Note Conversion and a $5.0 million equity financing. Additionally, the company completed its obligations under the WY Agreement, securing a $7.0 million upfront license fee, and suspended the Wugen License Agreement for 12 months, enhancing its financial standing and operational flexibility.

HCW Biologics Secures Licensing Agreement with WY Biotech

On June 4, 2025, HCW Biologics announced that WY Biotech completed its due diligence on the technology transfer report for HCW11-006, confirming its commitment to develop and commercialize the molecule under an amended license agreement. This agreement, which includes a $7.0 million upfront licensing fee, positions HCW Biologics to receive additional milestone payments and royalties, while allowing them to opt-in for commercialization rights in certain territories after Phase 1 trials, impacting their financial and strategic positioning in the biopharmaceutical industry.

HCW Biologics Engages Armistice in Securities Purchase

HCW Biologics Inc. entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement with Armistice Capital Master Fund Ltd. on May 13, 2025, which included pre-funded warrants for purchasing up to 513,140 shares of common stock. By May 29, 2025, Armistice had exercised warrants to acquire a total of 374,140 shares, leaving 139,000 shares still available for purchase, indicating a significant engagement with Armistice that could impact the company’s financial operations and market positioning.