HCW Biologics (HCWB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.64M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 66.41K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.27
• Revenue Growth: -87.93%
• EPS Growth: 65.26%
• Country: US
• Employees: 36
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -4.13
• Shares Outstanding: 3,279,812
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 70,145
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 66,408
• PEG Ratio: -2.31
• Price to Book (P/B): -102.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 269.62
• P/FCF Ratio: -47.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.41
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 20.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -98.23
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.01
• 1Y Price Target: $8.00
• Price Target Upside: 100.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-74.94% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (sharp revenue decline, negative gross profit in TTM, persistent cash burn, and negative equity). Technicals also remain unfavorable with price below key longer-term moving averages and negative MACD. Offsetting factors are limited to positive corporate developments (financing/liability settlement to bolster equity and a Phase 1 trial start), which improve near-term positioning but do not yet change the fundamental risk profile.

Positive Factors

Phase 1 Trial Initiation

Dosing the first patient in a Phase 1 trial is a durable R&D milestone that meaningfully de-risks the lead program. Establishing safety/dose enables later efficacy studies, increases partnership/licensing optionality, and can unlock milestone-driven non‑dilutive funding sources.

Strategic License Amendment with Trimmune

Assigning regional rights and shifting development costs to Trimmune provides upfront cash and transfers material R&D expense off HCW’s balance sheet. This preserves HCW’s capital for core programs, reduces funding burden, and retains upside via an option to recapture Americas rights after Phase 1.

Capital Actions Bolstering Equity and Runway

Net proceeds from warrant exercises and a large legal-fee settlement materially improve stockholders’ equity and runway. Strengthening the capital base reduces short-term listing and solvency pressure, giving management time to advance trials and pursue strategic partnerships without immediate emergency financing.

Negative Factors

Negative Shareholders' Equity

Negative shareholders’ equity reflects accumulated losses that have eroded the capital base, increasing refinancing and solvency risk. This structural weakness limits access to debt, raises the likelihood of dilutive capital raises, and can impair long-term strategic flexibility absent recapitalization or sustained profitability.

Persistent Cash Burn

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow means ongoing dependence on external funding to sustain R&D and operations. Over a multi‑month horizon this drives dilution risk, constrains strategic choices, and forces management to prioritize short-term financing over longer-term value-creating investments.

Sharp Revenue Decline & Negative Gross Profit

A steep revenue contraction with negative TTM gross profit signals deteriorating operating leverage and reduced ability to cover fixed costs. For a clinical-stage firm reliant on milestone/licensing cash, declining revenue and margin deterioration weaken bargaining power with partners and heighten execution risk on development programs.

HCW Biologics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HCW Biologics Inc., a preclinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering and developing novel immunotherapies for chronic, low-grade inflammation, and age-related diseases. The company's lead products include HCW9218, which is an injectable immunotherapeutic for patients with pancreatic, ovarian, breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers, as well as pulmonary fibrosis; and HCW9302 for auto-immune diseases, such as alopecia areata and metabolic diseases. It also develops HCW9201, a cell-based therapy that is in Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of patients with relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia; and HCW9206 for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Miramar, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

HCW Biologics generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its proprietary therapeutic products. The company earns money by licensing its technology and products to pharmaceutical companies, receiving milestone payments, and royalties based on sales of these therapies. Additionally, HCWB may engage in collaborative partnerships with other biotech firms or research institutions to co-develop products, which can provide funding and shared resources. Grants and government funding for research initiatives may also contribute to its revenue stream, particularly in early-stage development phases.

HCW Biologics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Very weak fundamentals: revenue is down sharply (TTM ~-49% vs prior period), gross profit turned negative in TTM, and losses remain extremely large relative to sales. The balance sheet is a major risk with negative shareholders’ equity in 2024 and TTM, and cash flow shows persistent operating and free-cash-flow burn, implying continued dependence on external funding.

Income Statement

Revenue has contracted sharply, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue down ~49% versus the prior period and annual revenue also drifting lower from 2022–2024. Profitability is very weak: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit turned negative and operating losses remain extremely large relative to sales, driving deeply negative net margins. The main positive is that gross margin was positive in prior annual periods (e.g., 2022–2024), but the latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) deterioration signals worsening operating leverage and elevated execution risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet has weakened materially as equity moved from positive (2020–2023) to negative in 2024 and remains negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating accumulated losses have eroded the capital base. Debt has increased versus earlier years while equity is negative, which heightens refinancing and solvency risk and reduces financial flexibility. Total assets remain sizable, but the negative equity position is a key overhang until profitability improves or the company is recapitalized.

Cash Flow

Cash burn is persistent: operating cash flow and free cash flow are negative across all periods, including TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). While free cash flow burn improved versus 2023 (less negative in 2024 and slightly better again in TTM), the company still consumes substantial cash, implying ongoing dependence on external funding. A modest positive is that free cash flow roughly tracks net loss (not wildly worse), but the absolute level of cash outflow remains the dominant concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	422.02K	2.57M	2.84M	6.72M	0.00	4.10M
Gross Profit	-89.50K	959.40K	560.36K	2.59M	-543.60K	4.10M
EBITDA	-8.72M	-27.68M	-23.58M	-14.06M	-12.32M	-5.25M
Net Income	-12.05M	-30.02M	-24.99M	-14.90M	-12.86M	-5.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	25.45M	30.24M	28.51M	46.81M	53.51M	15.40M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.10M	4.67M	3.60M	32.06M	36.71M	8.46M
Total Debt	7.50M	13.69M	6.30M	6.41M	0.00	567.31K
Total Liabilities	27.55M	37.01M	15.05M	9.38M	2.32M	1.00M
Stockholders Equity	-2.11M	-6.77M	13.46M	37.43M	51.19M	14.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-12.98M	-14.49M	-28.72M	-20.66M	-11.02M	-10.62M
Operating Cash Flow	-12.87M	-14.23M	-22.51M	-10.39M	-10.98M	-10.43M
Investing Cash Flow	-113.41K	-261.62K	3.80M	14.71M	-35.02M	-186.68K
Financing Cash Flow	13.08M	15.57M	-14.53K	6.27M	49.27M	11.72M

HCW Biologics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCWB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.23, above the 50-day MA of 1.55, and below the 200-day MA of 4.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HCWB.

HCW Biologics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ADXN	51 Neutral	$9.31M	-0.89	-71.27%	―	-72.15%	-223.62%
MTNB	45 Neutral	$3.83M	-0.18	-157.24%	―	―	25.19%
CLDI	45 Neutral	$7.31M	-0.11	―	―	―	87.42%
KPRX	44 Neutral	$8.83M	-0.95	-32.58%	―	-100.00%	-463.97%
HCWB	43 Neutral	$3.64M	-0.08	―	―	-87.93%	65.26%
XBIO	42 Neutral	$5.09M	-1.10	-57.43%	―	13.30%	22.70%

HCW Biologics Corporate Events

HCW Biologics Restructures Obligations to Regain Nasdaq Compliance

On August 19, 2025, HCW Biologics Inc. was notified by Nasdaq that it was not in compliance with the exchange’s $2.5 million minimum stockholders’ equity requirement for continued listing, leading to a September 25, 2025 hearing and an October 13, 2025 decision granting the company until December 31, 2025 to regain compliance with the equity threshold and until February 17, 2026 to demonstrate continued compliance with all listing criteria. To bolster its equity position, the company completed a warrant inducement transaction on November 19, 2025 that generated approximately $3.8 million in net proceeds, raised an additional $363,858 through its Standby Equity Line of Credit in the fourth quarter of 2025, and on December 30, 2025 executed a settlement of about $7.4 million in legal fee payables that is expected to increase stockholders’ equity by roughly $5.4 million as of December 31, 2025; based on these actions, HCW Biologics now believes its stockholders’ equity exceeds $2.5 million and is awaiting Nasdaq’s formal determination on its compliance status.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCWB) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCW Biologics stock, see the HCWB Stock Forecast page.

HCW Biologics Secures $4M Through Warrant Exercise

On November 19, 2025, HCW Biologics Inc. entered into an inducement agreement with an institutional investor to reduce the exercise price of outstanding warrants, leading to the immediate exercise of these warrants and generating approximately $4.0 million in gross proceeds. In exchange, the company issued new warrants to the investor, which are immediately exercisable, and agreed to file a registration statement with the SEC for the resale of shares. This transaction, advised by Maxim Group LLC, is expected to enhance HCW Biologics’ financial position and support its ongoing development of immunotherapies.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCWB) stock is a Sell with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCW Biologics stock, see the HCWB Stock Forecast page.

HCW Biologics Amends License Agreement with Trimmune

On November 17, 2025, HCW Biologics Inc. and Beijing Trimmune Biotech Co., Ltd. entered into an Amended and Restated License, Research and Co-Development Agreement. This agreement involves restructuring the original license to include rights assignment to Trimmune, a $3.5M cash payment, and an equity transfer. HCW retains an option to recapture rights in the Americas post-Phase 1 trials, while Trimmune handles all development costs in its territory. If the deal doesn’t close by January 16, 2026, rights revert to HCW.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCWB) stock is a Sell with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCW Biologics stock, see the HCWB Stock Forecast page.

HCW Biologics Begins Phase 1 Trial for HCW9302

On November 18, 2025, HCW Biologics announced the dosing of the first patient in a Phase 1 clinical trial for its lead product candidate, HCW9302, aimed at treating alopecia areata, an autoimmune disorder. This trial marks a significant milestone in the company’s efforts to develop treatments for autoimmune diseases, with HCW9302 showing potential to activate regulatory T cells to reduce inflammation without broad immunosuppression. The study aims to establish a safe dose for Phase 2 trials, with future plans to explore HCW9302’s efficacy in other inflammatory conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (HCWB) stock is a Sell with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HCW Biologics stock, see the HCWB Stock Forecast page.