Great Southern Bancorp (GSBC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $686.13M
• Dividend Yield: 2.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 38.85K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: 0.67%
• EPS Growth: 17.88%
• Country: US
• Employees: 882
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.45
• Shares Outstanding: 11,189,262
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 44,382
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 38,848
• PEG Ratio: 0.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.04
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.59
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.89
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.31
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.61
• 1Y Price Target: $63.00
• Price Target Upside: 2.74% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $221.24M

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $65.00 ▲(6.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/07/26

The score is primarily constrained by mixed financial performance—especially the sharp TTM deterioration in cash flow and higher leverage—despite solid profitability. Valuation is a meaningful positive (low P/E and dividend), while technical indicators point to weak near-term momentum. The latest earnings call was supportive overall (margin and credit strength, capital returns), but loan/deposit contraction and growth uncertainty temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Net Interest Margin Resilience

NIM expanded despite loss of swap income, driven by proactive funding cost reductions and loan repricing. Sustained margin management and funding discipline support durable net interest income even if loan growth is weak, preserving core profitability over the next several quarters.

Strong Asset Quality

Very low NPAs, negligible net charge-offs and no year provision indicate conservative underwriting and healthy credit cohorts. Strong credit metrics reduce downside risk to capital and earnings and support stable lending capacity and reserve needs across the medium term.

Capital and Liquidity Buffer

Ample liquidity and elevated tangible common equity (11.2%) provide flexibility to withstand funding stress, pursue selective lending, and maintain buybacks/dividends. A strong capital base and borrowing capacity materially reduce short- to medium-term funding and solvency risk.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation

A sharp reversal to zero operating cash flow and negative free cash flow undermines earnings quality and reduces internal funding for loan growth, investments or buybacks. Over several quarters this increases reliance on external funding and constrains financial flexibility.

Rising Leverage

A material increase in leverage halves the cushion against credit losses or rate shocks and raises refinancing and interest expense sensitivity. Higher debt ratios limit strategic optionality and heighten the risk that adverse credit or funding events impair capital or require accelerated deleveraging.

Loan and Deposit Contraction

Significant payoffs and deposit outflows shrink interest-earning assets and fee bases, pressuring NII and efficiency. Persistent payoff activity and management's guidance that loan growth will remain challenging imply a constrained revenue runway and elevated execution risk for restoring balance-sheet scale.

Great Southern Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for Great Southern Bank that offers a range of financial services in the United States. Its deposit products include regular savings accounts, checking accounts, money market accounts, fixed interest rate certificates with varying maturities, certificates of deposit, brokered certificates, and individual retirement accounts. The company's loan portfolio comprises residential and commercial real estate loans, construction loans, commercial business loans, home improvement loans, and unsecured consumer loans, as well as secured consumer loans, including automobile loans, boat loans, home equity loans, loans secured by savings deposits. It also provides insurance and merchant banking services. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 93 retail banking centers and approximately 200 automated teller machines in Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska, and Arkansas; and six commercial and one mortgage loan production offices in Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Omaha, Nebraska, Phoenix and Tulsa, Oklahoma, Springfield, and Missouri. Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Great Southern Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from its loan portfolio, which includes residential mortgages, commercial loans, and consumer loans. Additionally, the bank earns income from fees associated with deposit accounts, transaction services, and other banking services. A significant portion of its revenue also comes from investment securities. The company's revenue model is supported by its ability to attract deposits at competitive rates, allowing it to fund its lending activities. Partnerships with local businesses and communities further enhance its customer base, driving growth in both lending and deposit services.

Great Southern Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability is solid (TTM net margin ~20.6%; TTM EBIT margin ~25.4%), but fundamentals are mixed with TTM revenue down (-2.5%), a sharp rise in leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.64 vs ~0.28–0.30 in 2023–2024), and notably weak TTM cash generation (operating cash flow reported at 0 and free cash flow -$16.3M).

Income Statement

Profitability remains solid for a regional bank, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin at ~20.6% and stronger operating profitability than 2024 (TTM EBIT margin ~25.4% vs. ~21.3% in 2024). However, growth has softened: TTM revenue declined (-2.5%) after modest growth in 2024 and a strong 2023, and profit margins are still below the exceptionally strong 2021–2022 levels—suggesting a less favorable earnings backdrop vs. prior years.

Balance Sheet

Returns are healthy but not exceptional, with TTM return on equity at ~11.3% (roughly in line with recent years but below the 2022 peak). The main concern is leverage trend: total debt rose sharply in TTM, pushing debt-to-equity to ~0.64 versus ~0.28–0.30 in 2023–2024, which reduces balance-sheet flexibility and raises risk if credit costs or funding conditions worsen. Total assets are also down versus 2024, indicating slower balance-sheet expansion.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weak spot in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): operating cash flow is reported at 0 and free cash flow is negative (-$16.3M), a sharp reversal from consistently positive free cash flow in 2020–2024. With free cash flow not covering net income in TTM, reported earnings quality looks weaker in the most recent period and adds uncertainty versus the prior multi-year track record.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	343.30M	355.26M	326.91M	261.12M	236.99M
Gross Profit	229.76M	216.99M	226.37M	227.57M	222.00M
EBITDA	87.30M	84.45M	94.66M	103.88M	105.50M
Net Income	70.97M	61.81M	67.80M	75.95M	74.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.60B	5.98B	5.81B	5.68B	5.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	825.51M	195.76M	689.54M	659.11M	1.22B
Total Debt	405.17M	166.34M	172.81M	277.98M	238.32M
Total Liabilities	4.96B	5.38B	5.24B	5.15B	4.83B
Stockholders Equity	636.13M	599.57M	571.83M	533.09M	616.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	39.14M	73.40M	46.47M	79.24M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	44.06M	80.70M	66.58M	84.98M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-175.39M	-88.21M	-801.28M	190.71M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	115.75M	50.32M	185.95M	-122.15M

Great Southern Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 61.32
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GSBC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 61.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 63.27, below the 50-day MA of 62.76, and above the 200-day MA of 59.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GSBC.

Great Southern Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MPB	76 Outperform	$792.84M	12.77	7.31%	2.58%	12.09%	-15.97%
FSBC	76 Outperform	$807.16M	12.33	13.95%	2.18%	22.24%	18.63%
TRST	75 Outperform	$807.52M	12.35	8.35%	3.48%	5.75%	20.52%
BFST	71 Outperform	$872.06M	8.79	10.39%	2.12%	17.99%	11.08%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GSBC	62 Neutral	$686.13M	9.89	11.18%	2.48%	0.67%	17.88%
HTB	61 Neutral	$740.85M	11.33	10.88%	1.12%	0.21%	14.54%

Great Southern Bancorp Corporate Events

Great Southern Bancorp Plans Virtual 2026 Annual Meeting

Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. announced on Feb. 17, 2026, that it will hold its 37th Annual Meeting of Stockholders as a virtual-only event via live webcast at 10 a.m. CDT on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Holders of the company’s common stock as of the March 3, 2026 record date will be able to attend online, vote during the webcast or by proxy, and access meeting materials in advance on the company’s website, underscoring an ongoing shift toward digital shareholder engagement.

The virtual format may broaden participation by stockholders across Great Southern’s multi-state footprint, reducing geographic barriers for investors in its retail and commercial banking franchise. By centralizing meeting access and materials online, the company is aligning its corporate governance practices with wider industry trends favoring remote access and streamlined communication with dispersed stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GSBC) stock is a Hold with a $67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Great Southern Bancorp stock, see the GSBC Stock Forecast page.

Great Southern Bancorp Reports Strong Preliminary 2025 Results

On January 21, 2026, Great Southern Bancorp reported preliminary results showing improved profitability for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, with quarterly earnings rising to $1.45 per diluted share from $1.27 a year earlier and full-year earnings increasing to $6.19 per diluted share from $5.26 in 2024. The company delivered higher returns on assets and equity and expanded its net interest margin despite a slight decline in net interest income tied to the October 2025 completion of income recognition from a terminated interest rate swap, while effective management of funding costs, stable core deposits and tight expense control helped sustain core performance. Asset quality strengthened, with non-performing assets dropping to 0.15% of total assets and total non-performing assets and potential problem loans falling to $9.5 million, even as total net loans contracted 7.1% year-on-year due to significant repayments and refinancing in multi-family, construction, residential and commercial business portfolios. Management highlighted negligible net charge-offs, solid fee-based non-interest income, continued investment in technology and infrastructure, and ample liquidity and borrowing capacity, underscoring a disciplined approach to capital, credit and operating costs as the bank entered 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (GSBC) stock is a Buy with a $74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Great Southern Bancorp stock, see the GSBC Stock Forecast page.

Great Southern Bancorp Declares Fourth Quarter Dividend

Great Southern Bancorp, Inc., the holding company for Great Southern Bank, declared a $0.43 per common share dividend on December 17, 2025, for the fourth quarter of the year, marking the company’s 144th consecutive quarterly dividend. The dividend, payable on January 13, 2026, reflects the company’s consistent commitment to shareholder returns and its stable financial position in the banking sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (GSBC) stock is a Buy with a $70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Great Southern Bancorp stock, see the GSBC Stock Forecast page.