tiprankstipranks
Groupon Inc (GRPN)
NASDAQ:GRPN

Groupon (GRPN) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
1,824 Followers

Top Page

GR

Groupon

(NASDAQ:GRPN)

56Neutral
Groupon's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and high leverage. Although there are some operational improvements, technical indicators are weak, and valuation is moderate. The mixed earnings call results further emphasize the company's struggles, leading to an overall cautious outlook.

Groupon (GRPN) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Groupon Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGroupon, Inc. operates as a global scaled two-sided marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. The firm provides marketing services by selling vouchers through online local marketplaces. It operates through North America and International segment. The company was founded by Andrew D. Mason, Eric Paul Lefkofsky, and Bradley A. Keywell on January 15, 2008 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.
How the Company Makes MoneyGroupon makes money primarily through the sale of vouchers and deals that offer discounts on local services, goods, and travel. The company generates revenue by taking a commission on each deal sold, which is a percentage of the price paid by the consumer. Additionally, Groupon earns money through its Goods segment, where it sells merchandise directly to consumers, and the Travel segment, offering discounted travel packages and hotel stays. Key revenue streams include local deals, Groupon Goods, and Groupon Getaways. Partnerships with local businesses, as well as marketing and promotional strategies to attract both merchants and consumers to its platform, significantly contribute to its earnings.

Groupon Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Groupon's financial performance shows a mix of progress and challenges. The Income Statement reflects a slight recovery with improved net income and gross profit margin, though revenue has declined. The Balance Sheet presents risks with a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating potential financial instability, while Cash Flow analysis indicates a positive turnaround with improved cash management. Overall, the company is recovering but faces significant challenges due to declining revenue and high leverage.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Groupon's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a slight recovery with positive net income. Gross Profit Margin improved to approximately 89.7%, indicating efficient cost management. However, year-over-year revenue has declined significantly from $514.9 million to $499.9 million, reflecting a negative growth trend. The company has shown improvement in EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating better operational efficiency. Overall, while there are signs of operational recovery, declining revenue poses a challenge.
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
The balance sheet reflects a challenging financial position with a high debt-to-equity ratio due to low stockholders' equity. The equity ratio is weak at around 7.3%, indicating high leverage and potential financial instability. Despite improvements in net income, the overall equity position remains fragile, posing risks in financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows a positive turnaround with positive operating cash flow in TTM. Despite previous negative free cash flow, current free cash flow is positive, reflecting improved cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates improved cash conversion, but consistency remains a concern given past fluctuations.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
499.89M514.91M599.09M967.11M1.42B2.22B
Gross Profit
448.43M450.66M522.82M737.12M677.29M1.19B
EBIT
21.56M-18.25M-47.75M79.14M116.25M39.80M
EBITDA
65.21M23.51M-114.93M178.05M-173.35M115.83M
Net Income Common Stockholders
19.32M-55.41M-234.38M118.67M-286.56M-14.29M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
841.02M141.56M281.28M498.73M850.59M750.89M
Total Assets
1.64B570.96M793.12M1.16B1.41B1.59B
Total Debt
201.67M278.75M309.23M382.15M520.42M325.16M
Net Debt
-639.35M137.19M27.95M-116.58M-330.17M-425.72M
Total Liabilities
1.26B611.27M784.26M947.59M1.30B1.19B
Stockholders Equity
381.25M-40.63M8.47M209.87M107.67M393.94M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
27.32M-99.80M-174.83M-176.72M-116.55M217.00K
Operating Cash Flow
42.87M-77.98M-135.99M-123.96M-63.60M71.28M
Investing Cash Flow
12.50M-1.40M-38.84M-45.81M-20.12M-67.59M
Financing Cash Flow
28.75M-35.69M-34.41M-183.85M176.80M-92.62M

Groupon Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price13.98
Price Trends
50DMA
11.46
Positive
100DMA
10.97
Positive
200DMA
12.23
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.13
Negative
RSI
66.90
Neutral
STOCH
44.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRPN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.66, above the 50-day MA of 11.46, and above the 200-day MA of 12.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRPN.

Groupon Risk Analysis

Groupon disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Groupon reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Groupon Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$2.29B18.3817.79%5.61%37.61%
62
Neutral
$1.90B822.420.55%2.63%-58.77%
61
Neutral
$4.80B224.223.48%31.39%
59
Neutral
$29.20B0.14-12.92%4.06%2.18%-51.74%
57
Neutral
$782.39M22.053.42%-17.69%
57
Neutral
$980.86M-5.52%68.99%84.85%
56
Neutral
$388.53M20.6848.32%-4.85%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GRPN
Groupon
13.98
-4.11
-22.72%
ANGI
Angi
1.56
-1.14
-42.22%
QNST
Quinstreet
17.35
1.85
11.94%
TRIP
TripAdvisor
13.75
-12.91
-48.42%
YELP
Yelp
34.88
-3.48
-9.07%
LYFT
Lyft
11.61
-6.65
-36.42%

Groupon Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 11, 2025 | % Change Since: 43.09% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Groupon has made significant strides in growth and transformation with positive financial outcomes and platform improvements. However, technical challenges and a slow start to Q1 present some concerns. The highlights outweigh the lowlights, indicating a positive trajectory.
Highlights
North America Local Billings Growth
North America Local achieved a positive 8% billings growth in Q4, a significant turnaround from a 19% decline in 2022.
Financial Strength Improvement
Groupon generated $69 million in adjusted EBITDA and $41 million in free cash flow for the full year, marking the first positive free cash flow since exiting the pandemic.
Platform Modernization Success
Major migrations completed, including fraud detection platform, North America cloud infrastructure, new website, and ERP system, enhancing innovation and user experience.
International Market Growth
International Local, excluding Italy, grew billings by 2% with positive momentum in major markets like Spain, UK, France, and Germany.
Double-Digit Growth in Key Verticals
Significant growth observed in key verticals such as Things to Do, enterprise brands, gifting, and seasonal offerings.
Improved Cash Position
Cash position improved to $229 million, providing a strong foundation for future growth initiatives.
Lowlights
Technical Migration Challenges
Q3 was impacted by technical migrations, affecting platform performance and causing challenges in operations.
Slow Start to Q1
Q1 outlook suggests a slight negative trend in billings, with lower take rates impacting revenue.
Lack of Specificity in Gifting Growth
Gifting saw improvement, but specific growth metrics were not disclosed, indicating it is still a work in progress.
Company Guidance
During the call, Groupon provided key metrics and guidance for 2025, emphasizing the company's recent progress and future strategies. In 2024, Groupon achieved $69 million in adjusted EBITDA and $41 million in free cash flow, marking its first positive free cash flow since the pandemic. North America Local experienced 8% billings growth in Q4, a significant turnaround from a 19% decline in 2022. International Local, excluding Italy, saw a 2% increase in billings, with positive momentum in major markets. Looking ahead, Groupon aims to sustain growth in 2025 by focusing on high-impact categories such as Things to Do, beauty and wellness, and gifting. The company plans to enhance customer retention through improved personalization and support merchant success with better tools. Groupon also reported a stronger cash position of $229 million, positioning it well for future growth.

Groupon Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Groupon CEO to Discuss Strategy at Fireside Chat
Positive
Dec 10, 2024

Groupon, Inc. is set to participate in the Northland Capital Markets Fireside Chat, where CEO Dusan Senkypl will discuss the company’s recent performance and future strategy. Despite facing risks such as global economic uncertainties and competition, Groupon remains focused on empowering customers with unique experiences at unbeatable value. With a presence in 14 countries and partnerships with over 50,000 merchants, Groupon aims for significant growth in billings, leveraging new revenue streams and geographic expansion.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.