Gold Royalty (GROY)
:GROY
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Gold Royalty
(GROY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(9.89% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/20/26
The score is supported primarily by strong financial positioning (very low leverage) and a positive earnings-call backdrop with ambitious growth guidance and improved liquidity. These are partially offset by weak technicals (downtrend with negative momentum despite oversold readings) and valuation concerns driven by ongoing net losses (negative P/E).
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Very low leverage and a strengthened cash position (> $12M, undrawn/upsized credit facility) provide durable financial flexibility. This allows the company to fund accretive royalty acquisitions, absorb commodity cycles, and avoid near-term refinancing risk while executing multi-year growth plans.
Negative Factors
Net Losses Persist
Despite operating improvements, material net losses persist due to below-the-line items and dilution. Continued negative net income can constrain retained earnings accumulation, limit capacity for shareholder returns, and sustain reliance on external financing for major growth initiatives.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Very low leverage and a strengthened cash position (> $12M, undrawn/upsized credit facility) provide durable financial flexibility. This allows the company to fund accretive royalty acquisitions, absorb commodity cycles, and avoid near-term refinancing risk while executing multi-year growth plans.
Read all positive factors
Gold Royalty (GROY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$840.08M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth86.30%
EPS Growth74.16%
CountryUS
Employees13
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.00
Shares Outstanding230,792,200
10 Day Avg. Volume2,307,732
30 Day Avg. Volume2,741,508
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-9.51
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)45.29
P/FCF Ratio706.95
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue40.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit53.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda99.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.05Price Target Upside66.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$37.61M
Gold Royalty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gold Royalty Corp., a precious metals-focused royalty company, provides financing solutions to the metals and mining industry. It focuses on acquiring royalties, streams, and similar interests at varying stages of the mine life cycle to build a po...
How the Company Makes Money
Gold Royalty makes money primarily by owning royalty and streaming interests tied to the production and sale of metals from mining projects operated by third parties. Its main revenue model is to deploy capital (e.g., through acquisitions or finan...
Gold Royalty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial momentum story: record quarterly and annual revenue and adjusted EBITDA, three consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow, a substantially strengthened liquidity position (equity raise, equitization, undrawn/upsized credit facility), accretive acquisitions (Pedra Branca, Borborema), and ambitious forward guidance (2026 midpoint +62% vs. 2025; 2030 midpoint ~490%+ growth) with most growth characterized as de-risked. The principal negatives discussed were external market volatility, GEO sensitivity to commodity price assumptions, potential dilution from recent financings and warrants, and execution/permit risk at underlying operators. Overall, the positives (record results, strong balance sheet, clear growth runway and strategic acquisitions) substantially outweigh the highlighted risks.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Q4 total revenue, land agreement proceeds and interest of $5.2M and adjusted EBITDA of $3.2M (Q4 adjusted EBITDA up ~28% QoQ from $2.5M and up ~68% YoY from $1.9M). FY2025 total revenue of $17.8M and adjusted EBITDA of $9.8M (transcript cites a 38,104% increase vs. the comparable 2024 period), and a third consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow.
Negative Updates
Commodity Price Volatility and Market Risk
Management highlighted recent extreme volatility (gold moved down as much as ~7% intraday) and geopolitical uncertainty; short-term market moves can pressure royalty valuations and share price despite longer-term fundamentals.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Q4 total revenue, land agreement proceeds and interest of $5.2M and adjusted EBITDA of $3.2M (Q4 adjusted EBITDA up ~28% QoQ from $2.5M and up ~68% YoY from $1.9M). FY2025 total revenue of $17.8M and adjusted EBITDA of $9.8M (transcript cites a 38,104% increase vs. the comparable 2024 period), and a third consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Gold Royalty’s 2026 guidance calls for 7,500–9,300 gold equivalent ounces (GEO), with the midpoint implying a 62% increase versus 2025 actual production of 5,173 GEO (including land agreement proceeds and interest); guidance assumes average prices of $5,150/oz gold and $5.75/lb copper and converts expected land agreement proceeds and interest into roughly 684 GEO at that gold price. The company noted the GEO figure is price-sensitive (guidance rises with lower gold prices and falls with higher prices due to GEO conversion mechanics) and highlighted that the portfolio is mostly gold-linked but includes copper royalties (e.g., Cozamin, Pedra Branca) and a copper stream (Verus). Looking further out, Gold Royalty’s 2030 outlook is 28,000–34,000 GEO (midpoint representing ~490%+ growth versus 2025), which includes about 600 GEO of land agreement proceeds and interest and where over 70% of the projected growth is from assets already permitted/financed/built to first phase (rising to >90% when low‑risk satellite deposits are included).Gold Royalty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 15.61M | 10.10M | 3.05M | 3.94M | 191.99K |
| Gross Profit | 11.78M | 6.63M | 1.56M | 2.19M | 23.33K |
| EBITDA | 4.43M | 1.94M | -7.76M | -15.57M | -9.92M |
| Net Income | -4.13M | -3.41M | -26.76M | -17.35M | -17.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 838.27M | 737.51M | 690.99M | 688.61M | 279.50M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.96M | 2.48M | 1.78M | 14.25M | 11.02M |
| Total Debt | 101.00K | 50.00M | 33.06M | 9.66M | 47.61K |
| Total Liabilities | 139.07M | 179.21M | 170.04M | 152.40M | 54.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 699.20M | 558.30M | 520.95M | 536.22M | 225.32M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.00M | -43.55M | -36.62M | -38.97M | -22.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.00M | 2.54M | -7.92M | -19.26M | -11.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -68.72M | -44.07M | -33.56M | 10.58M | -69.17M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 77.86M | 42.35M | 37.08M | 5.83M | 90.95M |
Gold Royalty Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.64
Price Trends
4.09
Negative
4.15
Negative
3.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.15
Negative
46.51
Neutral
67.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GROY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.57, below the 50-day MA of 4.09, and below the 200-day MA of 3.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GROY.
Gold Royalty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $840.08M | -171.17 | -0.70% | ― | 86.30% | 74.16% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $1.05B | 11.11 | -15.33% | ― | 11.32% | 61.60% | |
51 Neutral | $3.37B | -25.29 | -80.76% | ― | ― | 40.02% | |
46 Neutral | $205.56M | -17.60 | -22.72% | ― | -15.35% | 30.92% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GROY
Gold Royalty
3.64
2.21
154.55%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
24.99
15.08
152.17%
USAU
US Gold
14.75
6.17
71.91%
GORO
Gold Resource
1.27
0.89
230.73%
HYMC
Hycroft Mining Holding
37.00
34.24
1240.58%
DC
Dakota Gold Corp
5.40
2.74
103.01%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.