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Gold Royalty Corp. (GROY)
XASE:GROY
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Gold Royalty
(NYSE MKT:GROY)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(5.14% Upside)
Gold Royalty's stock score is primarily influenced by its stable financial structure and positive technical indicators. However, significant profitability challenges and a negative P/E ratio weigh heavily on the overall score.
Positive Factors
Business Model Resilience
The royalty/streaming model provides durable, low-capex cash flow exposure to gold and other metals without mine operating risk. Over 2–6 months this structure supports stable receipts tied to production and metal prices, enabling scalable portfolio growth and downside protection versus operators.
Conservative Capital Structure
Very low leverage gives the company durable financial flexibility to fund new royalty purchases or weather commodity cycles without large interest burdens. This conservative balance sheet reduces refinancing risk and preserves optionality to pursue accretive deals or opportunistic investments over the medium term.
Improving Free Cash Flow
Substantial FCF growth indicates improving liquidity and operational cash generation capacity. Sustained free cash flow expansion supports reinvestment in additional royalties, de-risks funding needs for expansion, and provides a durable buffer against commodity-driven volatility over upcoming quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative Profitability
Material negative margins show the business is not currently translating revenue into operating or net profits. Persisting losses constrain retained earnings and long-term value creation, increasing reliance on external capital and limiting the firm's ability to internally fund new royalty acquisitions or shareholder returns.
Weak Earnings-to-Cash Conversion
Poor conversion of reported earnings into operating and free cash flow suggests reliance on non‑cash items or timing effects. Structurally, this limits the company's ability to self-fund growth and could force recurring external financing, raising dilution or cost-of-capital risks over the medium term.
Negative Return on Equity
A negative ROE indicates capital deployed has not generated positive shareholder returns. Over several quarters this signals inefficient use of equity capital, increasing pressure on management to pursue higher-risk or dilutive deals to boost returns, which can erode long-term shareholder value if not executed prudently.
Gold Royalty (GROY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$971.33M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.37M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth86.30%
EPS Growth74.16%
CountryUS
Employees13
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.00
Shares Outstanding226,947,050
10 Day Avg. Volume4,772,080
30 Day Avg. Volume3,368,025
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.64
Price to Book (P/B)0.35
Price to Sales (P/S)19.10
P/FCF Ratio-4.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue53.56
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit76.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda146.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.00Price Target Upside40.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$39.87M
Gold Royalty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGold Royalty Corp., a precious metals-focused royalty company, provides financing solutions to the metals and mining industry. It focuses on acquiring royalties, streams, and similar interests at varying stages of the mine life cycle to build a portfolio offering near, medium, and longer-term attractive returns for its investors. The company's portfolio consists of net smelter return royalties ranging from 0.5% to 2.0% on 17 gold properties located in the Americas. Gold Royalty Corp. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyGold Royalty generates revenue through its royalty and streaming agreements, which provide the company with a percentage of the revenue or production from mines operated by other companies. This model allows GROY to earn income from gold production without the operational costs and risks associated with mining. Key revenue streams include upfront payments made by mining companies in exchange for the right to purchase gold at a predetermined price or a fixed percentage of the production. Additionally, Gold Royalty may enter into strategic partnerships with mining companies to expand its portfolio and enhance its cash flow. The effectiveness of its revenue model is bolstered by the volatility of gold prices, as higher prices can significantly increase the company's earnings from its existing royalty agreements.
Gold Royalty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements, such as record revenue and positive free cash flow, alongside effective strategies for debt reduction. However, some challenges were noted, including reduced guidance at the Vareš mine and temporary revenue declines at certain assets. Overall, the positive aspects and strategic outlook outweigh the challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Gold Royalty Corp. achieved record quarterly revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 million, a nearly 50% increase compared to the previous quarter.
Positive Free Cash Flow
The company reported positive free cash flow for the quarter, primarily due to contributions from the Vareš and Côté Gold Mines and strong gold prices.
Successful Ramp-up of Key Assets
Commercial production was achieved at the Vareš mine on July 1, and Côté achieved nameplate throughput ahead of schedule, contributing over $1 million in revenue.
Debt Reduction Strategy
Gold Royalty Corp. aims to be net debt-free by the end of 2026, focusing on debt reduction while considering capital returns to shareholders.
Negative Updates
Reduced Guidance at Vareš Mine
Adriatic Metals reduced its full year 2025 guidance for the Vareš mine, leading to a potential shortfall in expected production.
Temporary Revenue Decline at Canadian Malartic
The Canadian Malartic mine generated only $18,000 in revenue for the second quarter due to mine sequencing issues.
Uncertain Revenue from Jerritt Canyon
The company does not expect further revenues from Jerritt Canyon this year unless the mine restarts, following a settlement of $0.3 million.
Company Guidance
During the Gold Royalty Corp. second-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported record quarterly revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and operating cash flow, marking a significant inflection point as they achieved positive free cash flow. Adjusted EBITDA reached $2.4 million, a 50% increase from the previous quarter, while total revenue, including land agreement proceeds and interest, stood at $4.4 million, translating to 1,346 gold equivalent ounces. The company discussed key asset developments, including the Vareš mine's commercial production starting July 1, Côté's processing plant reaching nameplate capacity, and Borborema's progression towards commercial production. Gold Royalty aims to be net debt-free by the end of 2026, focusing on debt reduction, capital returns, and strategic growth opportunities. The company maintains a full-year guidance of 5,700 to 7,000 GEO in 2025 and a five-year outlook of 23,000 to 28,000 GEO.Gold Royalty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Gold Royalty shows revenue growth and improved cash flow, but profitability is a concern with negative net profit and EBIT margins. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, providing financial stability.Income Statement
Gold Royalty's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has demonstrated a positive revenue growth rate of 16.87% in the TTM, indicating an upward trajectory in sales. However, profitability remains a concern with a negative net profit margin of -31.45% and an EBIT margin of -7.34%, reflecting ongoing operational challenges. The gross profit margin is relatively strong at 69.19%, suggesting efficient cost management in production.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Gold Royalty is relatively stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09, indicating conservative leverage. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a strong capital structure. However, the return on equity is negative at -0.58%, highlighting profitability issues that need addressing to enhance shareholder value.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 80.83% in the TTM, which is a positive sign for liquidity. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, indicating that operating cash flows are not fully covering net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting challenges in converting earnings into free cash flow.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.46M | 10.10M | 3.05M | 3.94M | 191.99K | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 10.18M | 6.63M | 1.56M | 2.19M | 23.33K | ― |
| EBITDA | 5.30M | 1.94M | -7.76M | -15.57M | -9.92M | -140.58K |
| Net Income | -6.40M | -3.41M | -26.76M | -17.35M | -17.43M | -140.63K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 740.52M | 737.51M | 690.99M | 688.61M | 279.50M | 55.46K |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.66M | 2.48M | 1.78M | 14.25M | 11.02M | 37.54K |
| Total Debt | 50.92M | 50.00M | 33.06M | 9.66M | 47.61K | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 180.52M | 179.21M | 170.04M | 152.40M | 54.18M | 196.38K |
| Stockholders Equity | 560.00M | 558.30M | 520.95M | 536.22M | 225.32M | -140.93K |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.55M | -43.55M | -36.62M | -38.97M | -22.93M | 331.00 |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.00M | 2.54M | -7.92M | -19.26M | -11.95M | 331.00 |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.65M | -44.07M | -33.56M | 10.58M | -69.17M | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.38M | 42.35M | 37.08M | 5.83M | 90.95M | 37.54K |
Gold Royalty Technical Analysis
Negative
4.28
Price Trends
4.29
Negative
3.98
Positive
3.15
Positive
Market Momentum
0.12
Positive
42.71
Neutral
18.91
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GROY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.65, below the 50-day MA of 4.29, and above the 200-day MA of 3.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.91 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GROY.
Gold Royalty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
54 Neutral | $1.05B | -13.03 | -28.98% | ― | 11.32% | 61.60% | |
53 Neutral | $971.33M | ― | -1.14% | ― | 86.30% | 74.16% | |
53 Neutral | $216.89M | -3.90 | -92.98% | ― | -15.35% | 30.92% | |
52 Neutral | $3.10B | -22.92 | -374.60% | ― | ― | 40.02% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
GROY
Gold Royalty
4.28
2.95
221.80%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
24.98
13.49
117.41%
USAU
US Gold
17.34
9.48
120.61%
GORO
Gold Resource
1.34
0.98
275.35%
HYMC
Hycroft Mining Holding
37.35
34.95
1456.25%
DC
Dakota Gold Corp
5.99
3.69
160.43%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.