Caledonia Mining (CMCL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $550.77M
• Dividend Yield: 2.06%
• Average Volume (3M): 522.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 38.04%
• EPS Growth: 424.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,147
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.77
• Shares Outstanding: 19,304,785
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 567,265
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 522,018
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.99
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.80
• 1Y Price Target: $45.00
• Price Target Upside: 57.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.31
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $334.83M

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $31.00 ▲(8.66% Upside)

The score is led by strong financial performance (profitability, low leverage, improving cash generation) and supportive valuation (low P/E with a dividend). Technicals are positive but appear overbought, and the earnings call mixed strong results and liquidity with higher cost guidance and an operational fatality.

Positive Factors

Low Leverage / Strong Balance Sheet

Very low leverage (debt/equity ~0.095) and strong ROE provide durable financial resilience. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk, preserves capacity to fund projects or weather cycles, and supports consistent dividend policy and strategic optionality over the next several quarters.

Improving Cash Generation

Free cash flow growth (46% TTM) and OCF exceeding net income indicate improving cash conversion and internal funding capacity. Strong cash generation underpins project financing, limits need for dilution, supports dividends and sustains capital allocation through commodity cycles over months.

Bilboes Project Feasibility

Feasibility confirms a material, permitted project delivering 1.55Moz at a low AISC (~US$1,061/oz) over ~10.8 years. If financed as planned (non-recourse debt, internal equity), Bilboes can sustainably scale production, diversify reserves and materially raise medium-term cash flow and company scale.

Negative Factors

Rising Production Costs

A 27% quarter-on-quarter rise in on-mine costs and higher AISC guidance indicate structural margin pressure if cost drivers persist. Sustained increases in electricity, labor and consumables make profitability per ounce more sensitive to input cost inflation versus metal prices, reducing cashflow predictability.

Operational Safety and Grade Disruption

The fatality and subsequent stoppage of high-grade areas led to lower grade and recovery. Beyond human and reputational costs, such incidents can cause prolonged operational interruptions, higher regulatory scrutiny and altered mine sequencing, reducing near-term production and potentially lowering long-run recoverable output.

Zimbabwe Fiscal/Regulatory Uncertainty

Proposed changes to royalties and tax treatment in Zimbabwe were revised but remain unratified. Ongoing fiscal and policy uncertainty creates medium-term legal and cashflow risk for Zimbabwe assets, complicates project economics and financing assumptions, and could alter returns if enacted differently.

Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily engages in the operation of a gold mine. It also explores for and develops mineral properties for precious metals. The company holds 64% interest in the Blanket Mine, a gold mine located in Matabeleland South Province, Zimbabwe. It also has an agreement to purchase 100% ownership in the Maligreen project, a brownfield gold exploration project located in Gweru mining district in the Zimbabwe Midlands. The company was formerly known as Caledonia Mining Corporation and changed its name to Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc in March 2016. Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

Caledonia Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced at its Blanket Mine. The company employs a model that involves extracting gold ore from the mine, processing it to obtain gold bullion, and then selling this bullion in the global market. Key revenue streams include direct sales of gold to refiners and through spot market transactions. Additionally, Caledonia benefits from cost management efficiencies and a stable production environment, which helps to enhance profit margins. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships with local and international entities to bolster its operational capabilities and expand its resource base, contributing to its overall financial performance.

Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong income statement (revenue +11.38% TTM; gross margin 49.29%, net margin 20.63%) and a solid balance sheet with low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.095) and strong ROE (21.47%). Cash flow is improving (FCF +46.30% TTM; OCF/NI 1.38) but efficiency is only moderate (FCF/NI 0.45).

Income Statement

Caledonia Mining shows strong revenue growth with an 11.38% increase in the TTM period, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 49.29% and 20.63%, respectively. The company has consistently improved its profitability over the years, with significant improvements in EBIT and EBITDA margins. These metrics indicate a healthy and growing income statement with strong operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.095, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The return on equity is strong at 21.47%, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a well-capitalized company. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability and prudent management.

Cash Flow

Caledonia Mining's cash flow statement shows a significant 46.30% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.38, suggesting strong cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate at 0.45, indicating room for improvement in cash flow efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	240.44M	183.02M	146.31M	142.08M	121.33M	100.00M
Gross Profit	118.51M	76.99M	41.48M	61.82M	54.07M	46.66M
EBITDA	108.45M	59.72M	25.48M	40.35M	44.20M	45.42M
Net Income	49.59M	17.90M	-7.86M	11.24M	17.40M	20.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	393.26M	348.36M	328.30M	235.19M	210.88M	177.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	15.67M	4.26M	4.25M	6.74M	17.15M	19.09M
Total Debt	23.80M	25.06M	25.06M	12.66M	1.35M	647.00K
Total Liabilities	116.79M	113.90M	104.10M	77.50M	58.41M	19.88M
Stockholders Equity	251.53M	213.88M	205.74M	140.74M	137.65M	141.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	31.09M	14.48M	-15.62M	-1.48M	-6.93M	3.12M
Operating Cash Flow	67.84M	41.95M	14.77M	42.62M	30.90M	30.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.05M	-32.05M	-31.16M	-44.33M	-35.92M	-28.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-14.71M	-7.80M	3.93M	-12.75M	2.37M	7.33M

Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 28.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.69, above the 50-day MA of 27.67, and above the 200-day MA of 24.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CMCL.

Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CMCL	77 Outperform	$550.77M	10.91	20.25%	2.06%	38.04%	424.35%
IDR	72 Outperform	$594.54M	49.71	18.37%	―	61.35%	34.33%
CTGO	64 Neutral	$427.27M	-133.66	-10.05%	―	―	97.09%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Caledonia Mining Corporate Events

Caledonia Mining Reports BlackRock Stake Increase Above AIM Disclosure Threshold

On January 21, 2026, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc disclosed that it had received a notification from BlackRock, Inc. on January 19, 2026 that, on January 16, 2026, BlackRock crossed a regulatory threshold requiring disclosure of a relevant change in its shareholding under the AIM Rules for Companies. According to the TR-1 notification, BlackRock’s total interest in Caledonia rose to 6.20% of voting rights, comprising 5.63% through shares and 0.56% via cash-settled contracts for difference, underscoring continued institutional investor interest in the miner’s equity and slightly increasing the concentration of its shareholder base.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMCL) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Caledonia Mining stock, see the CMCL Stock Forecast page.

Caledonia Mining Secures US$150m Convertible Note Funding and Sets Out Bilboes Gold Project Financing Plan

On January 21, 2026, Caledonia Mining outlined a structured, four-part funding strategy to advance its Bilboes gold project in Zimbabwe, anchored by the recently closed US$150 million, seven-year convertible senior notes offering that drew over US$600 million of investor demand and was upsized from an initial US$100 million. The plan combines a gold price hedging programme implemented in December 2025 to secure minimum pricing on production from the Blanket Mine, the net US$130 million raised from the convertible notes (supported by capped call options to limit shareholder dilution), an interim funding facility of up to US$150 million that Caledonia aims to finalise with regional banks by mid-2026, and a forthcoming project finance process with regional and global lenders starting in the first quarter of 2026. Together with ongoing cash generation from Blanket Mine, this package is intended to maintain liquidity through Bilboes’ peak capital investment phase, enable procurement of long-lead equipment from the third quarter of 2026 and keep the project aligned with the timetable set out in its feasibility study, reinforcing Caledonia’s ambition to establish Bilboes as a major new gold production centre in Zimbabwe.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMCL) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Caledonia Mining stock, see the CMCL Stock Forecast page.

Caledonia Mining Reports Increase in BlackRock Holding Above 5.8% Threshold

On January 20, 2026, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc reported that it had been notified by BlackRock, Inc. on January 16, 2026 that BlackRock crossed a regulatory disclosure threshold in the company’s shares on January 15, 2026, as defined under the AIM Rules for Companies. Following this change, BlackRock holds 4.12% of Caledonia’s voting rights through shares and a further 1.68% through financial instruments, giving it an aggregate interest of 5.81% or 1,122,249 voting rights, up from a previously reported total of 5.37%; the move underscores continuing institutional interest in Caledonia’s stock and signals a modest strengthening of BlackRock’s position among the company’s significant shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMCL) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Caledonia Mining stock, see the CMCL Stock Forecast page.

Caledonia Mining Raises $150 Million via Upsized Convertible Notes Offering

On January 20, 2026, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc closed an upsized US$150 million private offering of 5.875% Convertible Senior Notes due 2033, after initial purchasers fully exercised a US$25 million overallotment option. The notes, managed by Cantor Fitzgerald, carry a 5.875% semi-annual coupon and a conversion price of about US$40.51 per share, a 25% premium to Caledonia’s January 14 NYSE American closing price, with maturity set for January 15, 2033 and settlement at the company’s election in cash, shares or a combination. To curb potential economic dilution from conversions, Caledonia spent roughly US$14.4 million on cash-settled capped call options with a cap price near US$56.72, representing a 75% premium to the same reference price, signalling a deliberate effort to balance long-term, flexible funding with protection for existing shareholders. Management framed the strong demand from U.S. institutional investors as an endorsement of its strategy and execution, suggesting the financing materially strengthens the group’s capital base as it pursues its Zimbabwe-focused growth objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMCL) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Caledonia Mining stock, see the CMCL Stock Forecast page.

Caledonia Mining Advances Bilboes Gold Project with Feasibility Study Completion

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc announced the completion and publication of the feasibility study for the Bilboes Gold Project on November 25, 2025, confirming a single-phase development as the most economic approach. The project is expected to deliver 1.55 million ounces of gold over 10.8 years with first production anticipated in late 2028. The feasibility study highlights robust project economics with a post-tax IRR of 32.5% and an all-in sustaining cost of US$1,061 per ounce. The project is fully permitted and located in Matabeleland North province, Zimbabwe. Caledonia plans to fund the project through non-recourse senior debt, internal equity, and flexible instruments, aiming to minimize equity issuance and maximize shareholder value. The project is expected to transform Caledonia into a mid-tier gold producer and contribute significantly to Zimbabwe’s economy.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMCL) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Caledonia Mining stock, see the CMCL Stock Forecast page.

Caledonia Mining Unveils New Feasibility Study for Bilboes Gold Project

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc has released a new Technical Report Summary for the Bilboes Gold Project in Zimbabwe, with an effective date of October 31, 2025. The report, prepared by DRA Projects, outlines a feasibility study for open-pit mining to recover gold mineralization, detailing mineral resources and reserves in compliance with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s regulations. The Bilboes project, operational since 1989, holds necessary permits and has produced significant gold quantities through open-pit mining. The report’s findings are expected to impact Caledonia’s operational strategies and stakeholder interests by providing a comprehensive assessment of the project’s potential.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMCL) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Caledonia Mining stock, see the CMCL Stock Forecast page.