Caledonia Mining (CMCL) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

162 Followers

Top Page

Caledonia Mining

(NYSE MKT:CMCL)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$23.00

▲(0.66%Upside)

Caledonia Mining's strong financial performance and technical indicators are the main contributors to its score. The company's robust revenue growth and operational efficiency are offset by liquidity challenges and increased production costs. Technical analysis supports a bullish outlook, while valuation remains fair. Strategic efforts to manage costs and enhance efficiency further support the company's positive trajectory in the gold industry.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

CMCL reported 1Q25 revenue and EBITDA above forecasts, leading to an increased price target and maintained Buy rating.

Gold Prices

Gold prices have risen significantly, contributing to increased revenue and earnings expectations.

Gold Production

Caledonia announced more gold production than expected from its primary gold mine in Zimbabwe.

Negative Factors

Financial Restatement

Financial results were restated due to recalculating of deferred tax liabilities, identifying a 'material weakness'.

Gold Production Guidance

Management's 2024 gold production guidance is down 5.7%, implying a temporary decline.

Caledonia Mining (CMCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$392.07M

Dividend Yield2.43%

Average Volume (3M)147.85K

Price to Earnings (P/E)15.3

Beta (1Y)0.71

Revenue Growth29.36%

EPS Growth707.68%

CountryUS

Employees2,147

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength69

IndustryGold

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.45

Shares Outstanding19,294,785

10 Day Avg. Volume130,687

30 Day Avg. Volume147,846

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.43

Price to Book (P/B)1.78

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio23.35

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.59

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.70

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.74

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$28.00

Price Target Upside22.54% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCaledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily engages in the operation of a gold mine. It also explores for and develops mineral properties for precious metals. The company holds 64% interest in the Blanket Mine, a gold mine located in Matabeleland South Province, Zimbabwe. It also has an agreement to purchase 100% ownership in the Maligreen project, a brownfield gold exploration project located in Gweru mining district in the Zimbabwe Midlands. The company was formerly known as Caledonia Mining Corporation and changed its name to Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc in March 2016. Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey.

How the Company Makes MoneyCaledonia Mining makes money primarily through the extraction and sale of gold from its Blanket Mine in Zimbabwe. The company generates revenue by producing gold, which is then sold in the global markets at prevailing market prices. The primary revenue stream is from the sale of gold bullion, which is typically sold to refineries or gold trading companies. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include the efficiency of its mining operations, gold production volume, and market gold prices. Caledonia Mining also engages in strategic investments to optimize and expand its mining operations, aiming to increase productivity and reduce operational costs, thereby enhancing profitability.

Caledonia Mining Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 64.51%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and operational achievements such as record gross profit, increased gold production and sales, and a strengthened cash position. However, these positives were tempered by increased production costs and higher administrative expenses. The company's strategic focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency improvements suggests a proactive approach to addressing these challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Gross Profit

Caledonia Mining reported a gross profit of $26.9 million for Q1 2025, marking a 95% increase and setting a new quarterly record.

Increased Gold Production and Sales

The company produced and sold 19,000 ounces of gold, up from 17,500 ounces in the comparable quarter, reflecting a 9% increase.

Significant Revenue Growth

Gold revenue for the quarter increased by 46% to $56 million, driven by a higher realized gold price of just under $2,900 per ounce, up 42%.

Improved Cash Position

The company improved its net cash position to a negative $4.6 million from a negative $14.2 million in the previous period. Following the Solar Plant sale, the pro forma net cash position improved to $18.6 million.

Operational Efficiency and Safety Improvements

Operational changes led to record production and improved safety metrics with accidents dropping from five in January to one in March.

Negative Updates

Increased Production Costs

Production costs increased by 19% to $22.6 million due to higher labor, power, and consumables costs.

Higher Administrative and Capital Expenditures

Administrative costs and capital expenditures were higher, with some costs attributed to one-off expenses like HR reshuffles and gold hedge settlements.

Challenges with All-In Sustaining Costs

All-in sustaining costs were impacted by higher admin and capital expenditures, some of which were one-off costs totaling $2.2 million.

Company Guidance

During the Caledonia Mining Q1 Results Presentation, Mark Learmonth, CEO, highlighted the company's strong financial performance in the first fiscal quarter of 2025. The company achieved record gross profit, supported by a high average realized gold price of just under $2,900 per ounce. Gold production and sales were robust at 19,000 ounces, a 9% increase from the 17,500 ounces in the comparable quarter. Financially, gold revenue rose to $56 million, marking a 46% increase, and gross profit soared by 95% to $26.9 million. The quarter's net cash from operating activities more than doubled to $13.3 million, improving the net cash position to negative $4.6 million from a negative $14.2 million in the previous period. These results were bolstered by a successful sale of a Solar Plant and are part of a broader strategy focusing on disciplined growth, including optimizing production costs and exploring new opportunities for growth in Zimbabwe.

Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Caledonia Mining shows strong revenue growth and solid operational margins, indicating efficiency. The balance sheet is stable but faces liquidity challenges due to declining cash reserves. Cash flows are improving, yet capital expenditures limit free cash flow. Overall, the company is well-positioned in the gold industry but needs to enhance profitability and cash conversion.

Income Statement

Positive

Caledonia Mining has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $100 million in 2020 to $195.8 million in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin remains solid, showing effective cost management. However, net profit margin is moderate, impacted by varying net income figures. The company shows strength in EBITDA and EBIT margins, underscoring operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a stable equity base with a healthy equity ratio, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, suggesting controlled leverage. However, there is a decline in cash equivalents over the periods, which may affect liquidity. The return on equity shows fluctuation, reflecting inconsistent net income performance.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow analysis reveals positive operating cash flows, albeit with varying free cash flow figures due to substantial capital expenditures. The company shows an improving free cash flow trend in the TTM period, indicating better cash management. However, free cash flow to net income ratios suggest room for improvement in converting earnings into cash.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	173.75M	138.68M	142.08M	121.33M	100.00M
Gross Profit	76.79M	41.37M	61.82M	54.07M	46.66M
EBITDA	59.72M	29.70M	50.43M	46.42M	45.42M
Net Income	17.90M	-4.20M	17.90M	18.41M	20.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	348.36M	328.30M	235.19M	210.88M	177.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.26M	6.71M	4.74M	17.15M	19.09M
Total Debt	25.06M	25.06M	12.66M	1.35M	647.00K
Total Liabilities	113.90M	64.11M	41.73M	30.32M	19.88M
Stockholders Equity	213.88M	239.72M	171.05M	161.30M	141.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	14.48M	-15.62M	-1.48M	-6.93M	3.12M
Operating Cash Flow	41.95M	14.77M	42.62M	30.90M	30.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-32.05M	-31.16M	-44.57M	-35.92M	-28.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-7.80M	3.93M	-12.51M	2.37M	7.33M

Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price22.85

Price Trends

50DMA

18.70

Positive

100DMA

15.30

Positive

200DMA

13.33

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.85

Negative

RSI

67.59

Neutral

STOCH

63.05

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.56, above the 50-day MA of 18.70, and above the 200-day MA of 13.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMCL.

Caledonia Mining Risk Analysis

Caledonia Mining disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Caledonia Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CMCL	74 Outperform	$392.07M	15.33	11.16%	2.43%	29.36%	707.68%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.54B	10.43	1.37%	3.00%	2.29%	-33.47%
IDR	62 Neutral	$294.90M	33.34	26.95%	―	67.42%	137.01%
CTGO	50 Neutral	$248.18M	―	-9999.00%	―	―	18.69%
NAMM	―	$456.26M	―	-72.69%	―	―	―
BGL	―	$606.24M	299.10		―	―	―
DC	―	$460.98M	―	-25.54%	―	―	―

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

CMCL

Caledonia Mining

22.85

11.64

103.84%

CTGO

Contango ORE

21.03

-1.32

-5.91%

IDR

Idaho Strategic Resources

19.48

8.40

75.81%

NAMM

Namib Minerals

8.50

-2.08

-19.66%

BGL

Blue Gold

19.83

8.45

74.25%

Dakota Gold Corp

4.36

2.04

87.93%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 09, 2025