Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL)
:CMCL
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Caledonia Mining
(CMCL)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(10.50% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/24/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, improved returns, low leverage) and a constructive valuation (moderate P/E and solid yield). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and earnings-call risks around rising costs, major CapEx requirements, and Bilboes financing/execution timing.
Positive Factors
High profitability & margin recovery
Sustained high gross and operating margins and a restored net margin indicate the core Blanket Mine generates robust cash per ounce. That margin cushion improves ability to fund dividends, sustain CapEx and weather commodity cycles, supporting durable earnings power over coming years.
Negative Factors
Large near‑term CapEx and financing timing risk
Significant near‑term capital requirements concentrate funding risk into the next 12–18 months. Even with convertible proceeds and hedges, the company still needs interim/project debt; any delay or higher cost of financing could push back Bilboes timing and increase overall project economics risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability & margin recovery
Sustained high gross and operating margins and a restored net margin indicate the core Blanket Mine generates robust cash per ounce. That margin cushion improves ability to fund dividends, sustain CapEx and weather commodity cycles, supporting durable earnings power over coming years.
Read all positive factors
Caledonia Mining (CMCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$489.95M
Dividend Yield2.06%
Average Volume (3M)232.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.2
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth38.04%
EPS Growth424.35%
CountryUS
Employees2,147
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.56
Shares Outstanding19,335,080
10 Day Avg. Volume166,745
30 Day Avg. Volume232,798
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.97
Price to Sales (P/S)2.01
P/FCF Ratio11.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside77.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)3.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$351.88M
Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily engages in the operation of a gold mine. It also explores for and develops mineral properties for precious metals. The company holds 64% interest in the Blanket Mine, a gold mine located in Matabeleland S...
How the Company Makes Money
Caledonia Mining makes money primarily by producing gold at its operating mine(s) and selling that gold into the market, with revenue largely driven by (1) the volume of gold produced and sold and (2) the realized gold price. The company’s operati...
Caledonia Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a very strong year of financial results driven by a higher gold price, successful capital raising (convertible), improved liquidity, active hedging and clear progress on the Bilboes project and exploration (Motapa and deep Blanket drilling). These positives were balanced by operational challenges: a fatal safety incident prompting a company-wide review, temporary lower grades and recovery, material increases in labor/consumable/power costs, derivative mark-to-market volatility, and sizable near-term CapEx and remaining debt financing needs for Bilboes. Management presented mitigations (safety program, shift changes to boost throughput and build stockpiles, major infrastructure upgrades such as 132 kV line and AC–DC conversion) and a funded staging strategy, but execution and timing risk for large project spend and potential upward pressure on AISC remain.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Revenue up 46% to $267,000,000; gross profit up 78% to $137,000,000; EBITDA up ~109% to $125,300,000; profit after tax up ~200% to $67,500,000; earnings per share $2.83 (up >200%).
Negative Updates
Fatal Safety Incident and Remedial Action
A fatality in September related to a secondary blasting incident; company initiated a comprehensive review of safety practices, training and controls and commits to embedding a zero-harm culture.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Performance
Revenue up 46% to $267,000,000; gross profit up 78% to $137,000,000; EBITDA up ~109% to $125,300,000; profit after tax up ~200% to $67,500,000; earnings per share $2.83 (up >200%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2025 delivered strong financials (revenue $267.0m, gross profit $137.0m, EBITDA $125.3m, profit after tax $67.5m, EPS $2.83, free cash flow $62m) from Blanket producing 76k oz (77k oz sold, ~1,683 oz inventory movement), with the mill operating near capacity (~820,000 tpa); on‑mine costs rose ~19% (group production costs +25%) and unit costs were marginally above prior guidance (previous AISC range $2,100–$2,300/oz expected to be adjusted for recent Board‑approved CapEx). For FY2026 the Board approved group CapEx of $178.9m (≈$136m for Bilboes, ~$4m exploration at Motapa), two near‑term projects of $14.2m (part of a $34m 132 kV line) and $2.2m for central‑winder AC→DC conversion, and management signalled ~$130m of Bilboes spend required in Q3–Q4 2026; Bilboes economics show $485m direct capital cost (≈$600m including capitalized interest and working capital), first pour targeted end‑2028 and peak ~200k oz/yr in 2029. Financing pillars include put options at $3,500/oz (Jan‑2026–Dec‑2028) to underwrite ~$200m–$300m of project funding, a $150m convertible (net $130m, 7‑year maturity) completed post‑year end, a targeted $150m interim bank facility and ongoing project finance discussions to close within ~12 months, and year‑end liquidity of cash $35.7m (total available funding ~ $55–60m).Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 254.14M | 183.02M | 146.31M | 142.08M | 121.33M |
| Gross Profit | 137.12M | 76.99M | 41.48M | 61.82M | 54.07M |
| EBITDA | 131.30M | 59.72M | 25.48M | 40.35M | 44.20M |
| Net Income | 55.22M | 17.90M | -7.86M | 11.24M | 17.40M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 411.89M | 348.36M | 328.30M | 235.19M | 210.88M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 35.74M | 4.26M | 4.25M | 6.74M | 17.15M |
| Total Debt | 32.60M | 25.06M | 25.06M | 12.66M | 1.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 128.35M | 113.90M | 104.10M | 77.50M | 58.41M |
| Stockholders Equity | 259.00M | 213.88M | 205.74M | 140.74M | 137.65M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 43.40M | 14.48M | -15.62M | -1.48M | -6.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 76.23M | 41.95M | 14.77M | 42.62M | 30.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -24.53M | -32.05M | -31.16M | -44.33M | -35.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -19.15M | -7.80M | 3.93M | -12.75M | 2.37M |
Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis
Neutral
25.34
Price Trends
26.59
Negative
27.01
Negative
27.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.56
Negative
54.49
Neutral
82.07
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 25.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.33, below the 50-day MA of 26.59, and below the 200-day MA of 27.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.07 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CMCL.
Caledonia Mining Risk Analysis
Caledonia Mining disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Caledonia Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $489.95M | 9.25 | 22.79% | 2.06% | 38.04% | 424.35% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
56 Neutral | $711.44M | -4.11 | -268.91% | ― | ― | 97.09% | |
54 Neutral | $585.62M | 34.93 | 24.50% | ― | 61.35% | 34.33% | |
51 Neutral | $118.77M | ― | -72.69% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CMCL
Caledonia Mining
25.34
12.69
100.35%
CTGO
Contango ORE
23.32
10.98
88.98%
IDR
Idaho Strategic Resources
37.05
19.63
112.69%
NAMM
Namib Minerals
2.18
-8.52
-79.63%
BGL
Blue Gold
0.99
-10.48
-91.35%
DC
Dakota Gold Corp
5.42
2.57
90.18%
Caledonia Mining Corporate Events
Caledonia Mining Discloses Updated Major Holding as BlackRock Rebalances 6.55% Stake
Mar 30, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Caledonia Mining reported that it had been notified on March 27, 2026 of a change in a significant shareholding after BlackRock, Inc. crossed a disclosure threshold on March 26, 2026 under AIM rules. BlackRock now holds 6.55% of...
Caledonia Mining Announces Slight Change in BlackRock Shareholding Position
Mar 27, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on March 27, 2026 that it received a notification from BlackRock, Inc. on March 26 confirming that the asset manager had crossed a disclosure threshold in the company’s shares on March 25 under AIM Rules. BlackRock ...
Caledonia Mining Sets March 23 Date to Release Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
Mar 11, 2026
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc announced on March 11, 2026 that it plans to publish its operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 on March 23, 2026. The company will host a remote presentation a...
Caledonia Mining Issues New Shares Under Long-Term Incentive Plan
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Caledonia Mining said that long‑term incentive plan awards granted under its 2015 Omnibus Equity Incentive Compensation Plan had vested, resulting in the issue of 8,244 new common shares to a current and a retired staff...
Caledonia Mining Discloses Updated 7.14% BlackRock Holding After Threshold Crossing
Feb 9, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on 9 February 2026 that it had been notified by BlackRock, Inc. of a change in its shareholding, after the asset manager crossed a disclosure threshold under AIM rules on 5 February 2026. BlackRock’s total interest ...
Caledonia Mining Reports BlackRock Stake Increase Above AIM Disclosure Threshold
Jan 21, 2026
On January 21, 2026, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc disclosed that it had received a notification from BlackRock, Inc. on January 19, 2026 that, on January 16, 2026, BlackRock crossed a regulatory threshold requiring disclosure of a relevant cha...
Caledonia Mining Secures US$150m Convertible Note Funding and Sets Out Bilboes Gold Project Financing Plan
Jan 21, 2026
On January 21, 2026, Caledonia Mining outlined a structured, four-part funding strategy to advance its Bilboes gold project in Zimbabwe, anchored by the recently closed US$150 million, seven-year convertible senior notes offering that drew over US...
Caledonia Mining Reports Increase in BlackRock Holding Above 5.8% Threshold
Jan 20, 2026
On January 20, 2026, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc reported that it had been notified by BlackRock, Inc. on January 16, 2026 that BlackRock crossed a regulatory disclosure threshold in the company’s shares on January 15, 2026, as defined ...
Caledonia Mining Raises $150 Million via Upsized Convertible Notes Offering
Jan 20, 2026
On January 20, 2026, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc closed an upsized US$150 million private offering of 5.875% Convertible Senior Notes due 2033, after initial purchasers fully exercised a US$25 million overallotment option. The notes, managed ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.