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Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL)
:CMCL
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Caledonia Mining
(NYSE MKT:CMCL)
Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$22.50
▲(12.61%Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
CMCL reported 1Q25 revenue and EBITDA above forecasts, leading to an increased price target and maintained Buy rating.
Gold Production
The Blanket Mine produced 18,671 ounces of gold in 1Q25, up 9.3% year-over-year, contributing to higher revenue.
Negative Factors
Cost Management
Caledonia's 4Q24 All-in sustaining cost (AISC) per ounce was $2,032, up 17.1% y/y, above forecast.
Financial Guidance
Management's 2024 gold production guidance is down 5.7%, implying a temporary decline.
Caledonia Mining (CMCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$351.36M
Dividend Yield3.08%
Average Volume (3M)164.01K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.7
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth29.36%
EPS Growth707.68%
CountryUS
Employees2,147
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength68
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.45
Shares Outstanding19,294,785
10 Day Avg. Volume171,783
30 Day Avg. Volume164,014
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.47
Price to Book (P/B)0.93
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-107.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.25
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.82
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.00Price Target Upside5.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCaledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily engages in the operation of a gold mine. It also explores for and develops mineral properties for precious metals. The company holds 64% interest in the Blanket Mine, a gold mine located in Matabeleland South Province, Zimbabwe. It also has an agreement to purchase 100% ownership in the Maligreen project, a brownfield gold exploration project located in Gweru mining district in the Zimbabwe Midlands. The company was formerly known as Caledonia Mining Corporation and changed its name to Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc in March 2016. Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyCaledonia Mining makes money primarily through the extraction and sale of gold from its Blanket Mine in Zimbabwe. The company generates revenue by producing gold, which is then sold in the global markets at prevailing market prices. The primary revenue stream is from the sale of gold bullion, which is typically sold to refineries or gold trading companies. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include the efficiency of its mining operations, gold production volume, and market gold prices. Caledonia Mining also engages in strategic investments to optimize and expand its mining operations, aiming to increase productivity and reduce operational costs, thereby enhancing profitability.
Caledonia Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 43.84%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and operational achievements such as record gross profit, increased gold production and sales, and a strengthened cash position. However, these positives were tempered by increased production costs and higher administrative expenses. The company's strategic focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency improvements suggests a proactive approach to addressing these challenges.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Gross Profit
Caledonia Mining reported a gross profit of $26.9 million for Q1 2025, marking a 95% increase and setting a new quarterly record.
Increased Gold Production and Sales
The company produced and sold 19,000 ounces of gold, up from 17,500 ounces in the comparable quarter, reflecting a 9% increase.
Significant Revenue Growth
Gold revenue for the quarter increased by 46% to $56 million, driven by a higher realized gold price of just under $2,900 per ounce, up 42%.
Improved Cash Position
The company improved its net cash position to a negative $4.6 million from a negative $14.2 million in the previous period. Following the Solar Plant sale, the pro forma net cash position improved to $18.6 million.
Operational Efficiency and Safety Improvements
Operational changes led to record production and improved safety metrics with accidents dropping from five in January to one in March.
Negative Updates
Increased Production Costs
Production costs increased by 19% to $22.6 million due to higher labor, power, and consumables costs.
Higher Administrative and Capital Expenditures
Administrative costs and capital expenditures were higher, with some costs attributed to one-off expenses like HR reshuffles and gold hedge settlements.
Challenges with All-In Sustaining Costs
All-in sustaining costs were impacted by higher admin and capital expenditures, some of which were one-off costs totaling $2.2 million.
Company Guidance
During the Caledonia Mining Q1 Results Presentation, Mark Learmonth, CEO, highlighted the company's strong financial performance in the first fiscal quarter of 2025. The company achieved record gross profit, supported by a high average realized gold price of just under $2,900 per ounce. Gold production and sales were robust at 19,000 ounces, a 9% increase from the 17,500 ounces in the comparable quarter. Financially, gold revenue rose to $56 million, marking a 46% increase, and gross profit soared by 95% to $26.9 million. The quarter's net cash from operating activities more than doubled to $13.3 million, improving the net cash position to negative $4.6 million from a negative $14.2 million in the previous period. These results were bolstered by a successful sale of a Solar Plant and are part of a broader strategy focusing on disciplined growth, including optimizing production costs and exploring new opportunities for growth in Zimbabwe.Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Caledonia Mining exhibits strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and improved profit margins. The balance sheet is healthy with low leverage, and cash flow is positive, although capital expenditures fluctuate. Overall, the company shows a positive financial trajectory with resilience in managing capital and leverage.Income Statement
Caledonia Mining showed strong revenue growth of 25.30% in 2024, accompanied by a solid increase in gross profit margin to 44.18%. The net profit margin improved significantly to 10.30%, rebounding from a net loss in the previous year. These improvements highlight the company's ability to enhance profitability and manage costs effectively.77
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12, indicating conservative leverage. The equity ratio stands robust at 61.37%, reflecting strong capitalization and asset management. These metrics suggest financial stability and reduced risk exposure.81
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Caledonia Mining's free cash flow turned positive in 2024, demonstrating a significant turnaround with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.81. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.34 indicates strong cash generation relative to earnings, although there are fluctuations in capital expenditures impacting free cash flow growth.70
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 173.75M | 138.68M | 142.08M | 121.33M | 100.00M | Gross Profit |
| 76.79M | 41.37M | 61.82M | 54.07M | 46.66M | EBIT |
| 58.49M | 15.18M | 40.28M | 38.36M | 40.73M | EBITDA |
| 59.72M | 29.70M | 50.43M | 46.42M | 45.42M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 17.90M | -4.20M | 17.90M | 18.41M | 20.78M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 4.26M | 6.71M | 4.74M | 17.15M | 19.09M | Total Assets |
| 348.36M | 328.30M | 235.19M | 210.88M | 177.92M | Total Debt |
| 25.06M | 25.06M | 12.66M | 1.35M | 647.00K | Net Debt |
| 20.80M | 18.35M | 7.92M | -15.80M | -18.45M | Total Liabilities |
| 113.90M | 64.11M | 41.73M | 30.32M | 19.88M | Stockholders Equity |
| 213.88M | 239.72M | 171.05M | 161.30M | 141.52M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 14.48M | -15.62M | -1.48M | -6.93M | 3.12M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 41.95M | 14.77M | 42.62M | 30.90M | 30.96M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -32.05M | -31.16M | -44.57M | -35.92M | -28.00M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -7.80M | 3.93M | -12.51M | 2.37M | 7.33M |
Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
19.98
Price Trends
14.83
Positive
12.57
Positive
12.39
Positive
Market Momentum
1.30
Negative
71.48
Negative
80.68
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.56, above the 50-day MA of 14.83, and above the 200-day MA of 12.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.48 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.68 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMCL.
Caledonia Mining Risk Analysis
Caledonia Mining disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Caledonia Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We rely on the use of technology and information systems, which may become subject to cyber-terrorism or other compromises and shut-downs, and any failures or interruptions of these systems could adversely affect our businesses operations. Q4, 2023
2.
We are exposed to the risk of onerous environmental legislation which could potentially result in significant cost and liabilities Q4, 2023
3.
Theft or hijacking of gold may arise on site or during deliveries Q4, 2023
Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $351.36M | 13.74 | 11.16% | 3.08% | 29.36% | 707.68% | |
51 Neutral | $2.04B | -1.15 | -21.24% | 3.95% | 2.91% | -30.44% | |
| $182.59M | ― | -92.39% | ― | ― | ― | ||
60 Neutral | $186.39M | 21.39 | 26.95% | ― | 67.42% | 137.01% | |
54 Neutral | $173.02M | 11.43 | -3.29% | 6.08% | -33.92% | -58.53% | |
52 Neutral | $335.86M | ― | -0.60% | ― | 186.18% | -125.58% | |
40 Underperform | $175.89M | ― | -4.74% | ― | ― | -173.39% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
CMCL
Caledonia Mining
19.98
10.74
116.23%
USAU
US Gold
13.20
7.91
149.53%
FF
Futurefuel
3.87
-0.51
-11.64%
IDR
Idaho Strategic Resources
13.86
3.86
38.60%
GROY
Gold Royalty
2.28
0.82
56.16%
IONR
ioneer Limited Sponsored ADR
3.25
-0.95
-22.62%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.