Caledonia Mining (CMCL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $625.67M
• Dividend Yield: 2.06%
• Average Volume (3M): 217.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.96
• Revenue Growth: 38.04%
• EPS Growth: 424.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,147
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.77
• Shares Outstanding: 19,304,785
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 165,154
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 217,991
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.99
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.58
• 1Y Price Target: $45.00
• Price Target Upside: 38.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $37.00 ▲(14.16% Upside)

The score is led by strong financial performance (profitability, low leverage, improving cash generation) and supportive valuation (low P/E with a dividend). Technicals are positive but appear overbought, and the earnings call mixed strong results and liquidity with higher cost guidance and an operational fatality.

Positive Factors

Low Leverage / Strong Balance Sheet

Very low leverage (debt/equity ~0.095) and strong ROE provide durable financial resilience. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk, preserves capacity to fund projects or weather cycles, and supports consistent dividend policy and strategic optionality over the next several quarters.

Improving Cash Generation

Free cash flow growth (46% TTM) and OCF exceeding net income indicate improving cash conversion and internal funding capacity. Strong cash generation underpins project financing, limits need for dilution, supports dividends and sustains capital allocation through commodity cycles over months.

Bilboes Project Feasibility

Feasibility confirms a material, permitted project delivering 1.55Moz at a low AISC (~US$1,061/oz) over ~10.8 years. If financed as planned (non-recourse debt, internal equity), Bilboes can sustainably scale production, diversify reserves and materially raise medium-term cash flow and company scale.

Negative Factors

Rising Production Costs

A 27% quarter-on-quarter rise in on-mine costs and higher AISC guidance indicate structural margin pressure if cost drivers persist. Sustained increases in electricity, labor and consumables make profitability per ounce more sensitive to input cost inflation versus metal prices, reducing cashflow predictability.

Operational Safety and Grade Disruption

The fatality and subsequent stoppage of high-grade areas led to lower grade and recovery. Beyond human and reputational costs, such incidents can cause prolonged operational interruptions, higher regulatory scrutiny and altered mine sequencing, reducing near-term production and potentially lowering long-run recoverable output.

Zimbabwe Fiscal/Regulatory Uncertainty

Proposed changes to royalties and tax treatment in Zimbabwe were revised but remain unratified. Ongoing fiscal and policy uncertainty creates medium-term legal and cashflow risk for Zimbabwe assets, complicates project economics and financing assumptions, and could alter returns if enacted differently.

Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily engages in the operation of a gold mine. It also explores for and develops mineral properties for precious metals. The company holds 64% interest in the Blanket Mine, a gold mine located in Matabeleland South Province, Zimbabwe. It also has an agreement to purchase 100% ownership in the Maligreen project, a brownfield gold exploration project located in Gweru mining district in the Zimbabwe Midlands. The company was formerly known as Caledonia Mining Corporation and changed its name to Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc in March 2016. Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

Caledonia Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced at its Blanket Mine. The company employs a model that involves extracting gold ore from the mine, processing it to obtain gold bullion, and then selling this bullion in the global market. Key revenue streams include direct sales of gold to refiners and through spot market transactions. Additionally, Caledonia benefits from cost management efficiencies and a stable production environment, which helps to enhance profit margins. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships with local and international entities to bolster its operational capabilities and expand its resource base, contributing to its overall financial performance.

Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Caledonia Mining shows strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, efficient operational management, and a stable balance sheet. The company effectively manages its cash flows, though past fluctuations suggest a need for ongoing attention. Low leverage and high return on equity are positive indicators, but the increase in debt levels should be monitored.

Income Statement

Caledonia Mining has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly in the TTM period with an 11.38% increase. The company maintains healthy profit margins, with a gross profit margin of 47.31% and a net profit margin of 17.59% in the TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, indicating efficient operational management. However, the company experienced a dip in revenue growth in 2023, which could be a potential risk if not addressed.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12 in the TTM, suggesting prudent leverage management. The return on equity has improved to 16.01%, showcasing effective utilization of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is solid, indicating a strong equity base relative to total assets. However, the increase in total debt over the years warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 46.30% in the TTM, highlighting enhanced cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, indicating good cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, though it has fluctuated in previous years, suggesting some variability in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	240.44M	183.02M	146.31M	142.08M	121.33M	100.00M
Gross Profit	118.51M	76.99M	41.48M	61.82M	54.07M	46.66M
EBITDA	108.45M	59.72M	25.48M	40.35M	44.20M	45.42M
Net Income	49.59M	17.90M	-7.86M	11.24M	17.40M	20.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	393.26M	348.36M	328.30M	235.19M	210.88M	177.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	15.67M	4.26M	4.25M	6.74M	17.15M	19.09M
Total Debt	23.80M	25.06M	25.06M	12.66M	1.35M	647.00K
Total Liabilities	116.79M	113.90M	104.10M	77.50M	58.41M	19.88M
Stockholders Equity	251.53M	213.88M	205.74M	140.74M	137.65M	141.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	31.09M	14.48M	-15.62M	-1.48M	-6.93M	3.12M
Operating Cash Flow	67.84M	41.95M	14.77M	42.62M	30.90M	30.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.05M	-32.05M	-31.16M	-44.33M	-35.92M	-28.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-14.71M	-7.80M	3.93M	-12.75M	2.37M	7.33M

Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 32.41
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.72, above the 50-day MA of 27.25, and above the 200-day MA of 23.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.45 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMCL.

Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CMCL	77 Outperform	$625.67M	12.39	20.25%	2.06%	38.04%	424.35%
IDR	72 Outperform	$708.99M	65.36	18.37%	―	61.35%	34.33%
CTGO	64 Neutral	$455.93M	-153.84	-10.05%	―	―	97.09%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Caledonia Mining Corporate Events

Caledonia Mining Advances Bilboes Gold Project with Feasibility Study Completion

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc announced the completion and publication of the feasibility study for the Bilboes Gold Project on November 25, 2025, confirming a single-phase development as the most economic approach. The project is expected to deliver 1.55 million ounces of gold over 10.8 years with first production anticipated in late 2028. The feasibility study highlights robust project economics with a post-tax IRR of 32.5% and an all-in sustaining cost of US$1,061 per ounce. The project is fully permitted and located in Matabeleland North province, Zimbabwe. Caledonia plans to fund the project through non-recourse senior debt, internal equity, and flexible instruments, aiming to minimize equity issuance and maximize shareholder value. The project is expected to transform Caledonia into a mid-tier gold producer and contribute significantly to Zimbabwe’s economy.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMCL) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Caledonia Mining stock, see the CMCL Stock Forecast page.

Caledonia Mining Unveils New Feasibility Study for Bilboes Gold Project

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc has released a new Technical Report Summary for the Bilboes Gold Project in Zimbabwe, with an effective date of October 31, 2025. The report, prepared by DRA Projects, outlines a feasibility study for open-pit mining to recover gold mineralization, detailing mineral resources and reserves in compliance with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s regulations. The Bilboes project, operational since 1989, holds necessary permits and has produced significant gold quantities through open-pit mining. The report’s findings are expected to impact Caledonia’s operational strategies and stakeholder interests by providing a comprehensive assessment of the project’s potential.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMCL) stock is a Buy with a $45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Caledonia Mining stock, see the CMCL Stock Forecast page.