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Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL)
:CMCL
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Caledonia Mining
(NYSE MKT:CMCL)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$21.50
▼(-10.90% Downside)
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Revenue is expected to grow by 18%, and EBITDA by 64%, indicating strong financial performance.
Market Conditions
Gold prices have risen significantly, contributing to increased revenue and earnings expectations.
Production and Revenue
Caledonia announced more gold production than expected from its primary gold mine in Zimbabwe.
Negative Factors
Financial Reporting
Financial results were restated due to a recalculating of deferred tax liabilities, identifying a 'material weakness'.
Production Guidance
Management's 2024 gold production guidance is down 5.7%, implying a temporary decline.
Caledonia Mining (CMCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$434.90M
Dividend Yield2.32%
Average Volume (3M)155.95K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth28.06%
EPS Growth208.80%
CountryUS
Employees2,147
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength60
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.14
Shares Outstanding19,294,785
10 Day Avg. Volume172,562
30 Day Avg. Volume155,954
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)0.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.40
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.75Price Target Upside2.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCaledonia Mining Corporation Plc is a mining company focused on the exploration, development, and production of gold in Zimbabwe. The company operates the Blanket Mine, which is known for its high-grade gold production. Caledonia Mining is involved in various stages of the mining process, from exploration to production, and aims to increase its gold output while maintaining sustainable practices in its operations.
How the Company Makes MoneyCaledonia Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced at its Blanket Mine. The company sells its gold to various customers, including refiners and gold traders, often at market prices determined by global gold prices. Key revenue streams include gold production and sales, which are influenced by factors such as gold price fluctuations, production costs, and operational efficiency. Additionally, the company may benefit from any strategic partnerships or joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities or provide access to new markets. The company remains focused on increasing production through investments in mining infrastructure and exploration to expand its resource base, which will contribute to revenue growth.
Caledonia Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 3.30%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and operational achievements such as record gross profit, increased gold production and sales, and a strengthened cash position. However, these positives were tempered by increased production costs and higher administrative expenses. The company's strategic focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency improvements suggests a proactive approach to addressing these challenges.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Gross Profit
Caledonia Mining reported a gross profit of $26.9 million for Q1 2025, marking a 95% increase and setting a new quarterly record.
Increased Gold Production and Sales
The company produced and sold 19,000 ounces of gold, up from 17,500 ounces in the comparable quarter, reflecting a 9% increase.
Significant Revenue Growth
Gold revenue for the quarter increased by 46% to $56 million, driven by a higher realized gold price of just under $2,900 per ounce, up 42%.
Improved Cash Position
The company improved its net cash position to a negative $4.6 million from a negative $14.2 million in the previous period. Following the Solar Plant sale, the pro forma net cash position improved to $18.6 million.
Operational Efficiency and Safety Improvements
Operational changes led to record production and improved safety metrics with accidents dropping from five in January to one in March.
Negative Updates
Increased Production Costs
Production costs increased by 19% to $22.6 million due to higher labor, power, and consumables costs.
Higher Administrative and Capital Expenditures
Administrative costs and capital expenditures were higher, with some costs attributed to one-off expenses like HR reshuffles and gold hedge settlements.
Challenges with All-In Sustaining Costs
All-in sustaining costs were impacted by higher admin and capital expenditures, some of which were one-off costs totaling $2.2 million.
Company Guidance
During the Caledonia Mining Q1 Results Presentation, Mark Learmonth, CEO, highlighted the company's strong financial performance in the first fiscal quarter of 2025. The company achieved record gross profit, supported by a high average realized gold price of just under $2,900 per ounce. Gold production and sales were robust at 19,000 ounces, a 9% increase from the 17,500 ounces in the comparable quarter. Financially, gold revenue rose to $56 million, marking a 46% increase, and gross profit soared by 95% to $26.9 million. The quarter's net cash from operating activities more than doubled to $13.3 million, improving the net cash position to negative $4.6 million from a negative $14.2 million in the previous period. These results were bolstered by a successful sale of a Solar Plant and are part of a broader strategy focusing on disciplined growth, including optimizing production costs and exploring new opportunities for growth in Zimbabwe.Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Caledonia Mining shows strong revenue growth and solid operational margins, indicating efficiency. The balance sheet is stable but faces liquidity challenges due to declining cash reserves. Cash flows are improving, yet capital expenditures limit free cash flow. Overall, the company is well-positioned in the gold industry but needs to enhance profitability and cash conversion.Income Statement
Caledonia Mining has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $100 million in 2020 to $195.8 million in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin remains solid, showing effective cost management. However, net profit margin is moderate, impacted by varying net income figures. The company shows strength in EBITDA and EBIT margins, underscoring operational efficiency.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a stable equity base with a healthy equity ratio, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable, suggesting controlled leverage. However, there is a decline in cash equivalents over the periods, which may affect liquidity. The return on equity shows fluctuation, reflecting inconsistent net income performance.70
Positive
Cash Flow
The cash flow analysis reveals positive operating cash flows, albeit with varying free cash flow figures due to substantial capital expenditures. The company shows an improving free cash flow trend in the TTM period, indicating better cash management. However, free cash flow to net income ratios suggest room for improvement in converting earnings into cash.65
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 173.75M | 138.68M | 142.08M | 121.33M | 100.00M |
| Gross Profit | 76.79M | 41.37M | 61.82M | 54.07M | 46.66M |
| EBITDA | 59.72M | 29.70M | 50.43M | 46.42M | 45.42M |
| Net Income | 17.90M | -4.20M | 17.90M | 18.41M | 20.78M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 348.36M | 328.30M | 235.19M | 210.88M | 177.92M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.26M | 6.71M | 4.74M | 17.15M | 19.09M |
| Total Debt | 25.06M | 25.06M | 12.66M | 1.35M | 647.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 113.90M | 64.11M | 41.73M | 30.32M | 19.88M |
| Stockholders Equity | 213.88M | 239.72M | 171.05M | 161.30M | 141.52M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.48M | -15.62M | -1.48M | -6.93M | 3.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 41.95M | 14.77M | 42.62M | 30.90M | 30.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.05M | -31.16M | -44.57M | -35.92M | -28.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.80M | 3.93M | -12.51M | 2.37M | 7.33M |
Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
24.13
Price Trends
20.48
Positive
17.07
Positive
13.83
Positive
Market Momentum
0.72
Negative
62.75
Neutral
77.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.64, above the 50-day MA of 20.48, and above the 200-day MA of 13.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMCL.
Caledonia Mining Risk Analysis
Caledonia Mining disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Caledonia Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $434.90M | 11.56 | 15.51% | 2.32% | 28.06% | 208.80% | |
70 Outperform | $344.65M | 40.28 | 23.79% | ― | 59.64% | 61.41% | |
59 Neutral | kr30.17B | 0.02 | -5.14% | 3.50% | 2.33% | -25.14% | |
50 Neutral | $280.32M | ― | -9999.00% | ― | ― | 37.93% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
CMCL
Caledonia Mining
22.73
11.89
109.69%
CTGO
Contango ORE
21.69
1.81
9.10%
IDR
Idaho Strategic Resources
26.06
16.17
163.50%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.