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Caledonia Mining
(NYSE MKT:CMCL)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$23.00
▲(23.26% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/10/26
Score reflects strong financial performance (high profitability, low leverage, improving free cash flow) and attractive valuation (low P/E with a dividend), partially offset by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD and low RSI).
Positive Factors
High margins & profitability
Caledonia’s elevated gross and net margins and ~46% EBIT profile indicate durable unit economics in its core mining operations. High margins support internal reinvestment, dividends and capital spending flexibility, providing a structural buffer through commodity cycles and cost inflation.
Negative Factors
Earnings sensitivity to gold prices
Revenue and profit are highly exposed to gold price and input-cost swings; the firm’s fortunes moved from a 2023 loss to strong TTM profits. This structural commodity exposure limits earnings predictability, complicates multi-year planning and can force procyclical capital or dividend changes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High margins & profitability
Caledonia’s elevated gross and net margins and ~46% EBIT profile indicate durable unit economics in its core mining operations. High margins support internal reinvestment, dividends and capital spending flexibility, providing a structural buffer through commodity cycles and cost inflation.
Read all positive factors
Caledonia Mining (CMCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$355.57M
Dividend Yield3.05%
Average Volume (3M)272.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.8
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth40.20%
EPS Growth141.58%
CountryUS
Employees2,900
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.16
Shares Outstanding19,335,080
10 Day Avg. Volume260,654
30 Day Avg. Volume272,542
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.97
Price to Sales (P/S)2.01
P/FCF Ratio11.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside141.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$322.81M
Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily operates a gold mine in Jersey. It also engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals. The company holds a 64% interest in the Blanket Mine, a gold mine located in Z...
How the Company Makes Money
Caledonia Mining makes money primarily by producing and selling gold. The company extracts gold-bearing ore at its operating mine(s), processes the ore to produce gold doré, and then generates revenue when that gold is sold (typically with sales p...
Caledonia Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a very strong year of financial results driven by a higher gold price, successful capital raising (convertible), improved liquidity, active hedging and clear progress on the Bilboes project and exploration (Motapa and deep Blanket drilling). These positives were balanced by operational challenges: a fatal safety incident prompting a company-wide review, temporary lower grades and recovery, material increases in labor/consumable/power costs, derivative mark-to-market volatility, and sizable near-term CapEx and remaining debt financing needs for Bilboes. Management presented mitigations (safety program, shift changes to boost throughput and build stockpiles, major infrastructure upgrades such as 132 kV line and AC–DC conversion) and a funded staging strategy, but execution and timing risk for large project spend and potential upward pressure on AISC remain.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Revenue up 46% to $267,000,000; gross profit up 78% to $137,000,000; EBITDA up ~109% to $125,300,000; profit after tax up ~200% to $67,500,000; earnings per share $2.83 (up >200%).
Negative Updates
Fatal Safety Incident and Remedial Action
A fatality in September related to a secondary blasting incident; company initiated a comprehensive review of safety practices, training and controls and commits to embedding a zero-harm culture.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Performance
Revenue up 46% to $267,000,000; gross profit up 78% to $137,000,000; EBITDA up ~109% to $125,300,000; profit after tax up ~200% to $67,500,000; earnings per share $2.83 (up >200%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2025 delivered strong financials (revenue $267.0m, gross profit $137.0m, EBITDA $125.3m, profit after tax $67.5m, EPS $2.83, free cash flow $62m) from Blanket producing 76k oz (77k oz sold, ~1,683 oz inventory movement), with the mill operating near capacity (~820,000 tpa); on‑mine costs rose ~19% (group production costs +25%) and unit costs were marginally above prior guidance (previous AISC range $2,100–$2,300/oz expected to be adjusted for recent Board‑approved CapEx). For FY2026 the Board approved group CapEx of $178.9m (≈$136m for Bilboes, ~$4m exploration at Motapa), two near‑term projects of $14.2m (part of a $34m 132 kV line) and $2.2m for central‑winder AC→DC conversion, and management signalled ~$130m of Bilboes spend required in Q3–Q4 2026; Bilboes economics show $485m direct capital cost (≈$600m including capitalized interest and working capital), first pour targeted end‑2028 and peak ~200k oz/yr in 2029. Financing pillars include put options at $3,500/oz (Jan‑2026–Dec‑2028) to underwrite ~$200m–$300m of project funding, a $150m convertible (net $130m, 7‑year maturity) completed post‑year end, a targeted $150m interim bank facility and ongoing project finance discussions to close within ~12 months, and year‑end liquidity of cash $35.7m (total available funding ~ $55–60m).Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 274.16M | 254.14M | 183.02M | 146.31M | 142.08M | 121.33M |
| Gross Profit | 142.30M | 137.12M | 76.99M | 41.48M | 61.82M | 54.07M |
| EBITDA | 134.17M | 125.78M | 59.72M | 25.48M | 40.35M | 44.20M |
| Net Income | 62.16M | 55.22M | 17.90M | -7.86M | 11.24M | 17.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 553.16M | 411.89M | 348.36M | 328.30M | 235.19M | 210.88M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 170.03M | 35.74M | 4.26M | 4.25M | 6.74M | 17.15M |
| Total Debt | 115.85M | 32.60M | 25.06M | 25.06M | 12.66M | 1.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 253.70M | 128.35M | 113.90M | 104.10M | 77.50M | 58.41M |
| Stockholders Equity | 271.85M | 259.00M | 213.88M | 205.74M | 140.74M | 137.65M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 48.54M | 43.40M | 14.48M | -15.62M | -1.48M | -6.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 81.92M | 76.23M | 41.95M | 14.77M | 42.62M | 30.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -35.47M | -24.53M | -32.05M | -31.16M | -44.33M | -35.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 119.12M | -19.15M | -7.80M | 3.93M | -12.75M | 2.37M |
Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis
Neutral
18.66
Price Trends
19.65
Negative
21.63
Negative
24.90
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.18
Negative
54.46
Neutral
70.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.15, below the 50-day MA of 19.65, and below the 200-day MA of 24.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CMCL.
Caledonia Mining Risk Analysis
Caledonia Mining disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Caledonia Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $5.32B | 22.28 | 6.72% | ― | 75.12% | 173.47% | |
70 Outperform | $355.57M | 5.82 | 24.36% | 3.00% | 40.20% | 141.58% | |
67 Neutral | $1.76B | 1.99 | 32.58% | 2.51% | 32.68% | 91.90% | |
64 Neutral | $4.57B | 49.21 | 34.60% | 4.11% | 83.13% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
45 Neutral | $1.82B | -16.22 | -65.73% | ― | ― | 46.03% | |
42 Neutral | $251.07M | -27.09 | -25.50% | ― | ― | 6.21% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CMCL
Caledonia Mining
19.35
-1.92
-9.02%
DRD
Drdgold
21.57
6.08
39.22%
SSRM
SSR Mining
26.58
13.59
104.62%
VGZ
Vista Gold
1.85
0.86
86.87%
AUGO
Aura Minerals
57.79
33.89
141.77%
HYMC
Hycroft Mining Holding
22.36
18.64
501.08%
Caledonia Mining Corporate Events
Caledonia Mining Discloses Increase in BlackRock’s Shareholding
Jul 17, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported a past change in a significant shareholding after receiving notification from BlackRock, Inc. on July 15, 2026 that the asset manager had crossed a disclosure threshold on July 14, 2026. BlackRock now holds 6.18% of Caled...
Caledonia Mining Discloses Increase in BlackRock Shareholding
Jul 10, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on July 10, 2026 that it had received a notification from BlackRock, Inc. regarding a relevant change in BlackRock’s shareholding in the company, as required under AIM rules. BlackRock crossed a disclosure threshold...
Caledonia Mining Discloses BlackRock Crossing Major Shareholding Threshold
Jul 9, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on July 9, 2026 that BlackRock, Inc. notified the company on July 8 it had crossed a disclosure threshold in Caledonia’s shares on July 7, 2026 under AIM Rules. BlackRock now holds 4.96% of Caledonia’s voting ...
Caledonia Mining Discloses Change in BlackRock Shareholding
Jul 8, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on July 8, 2026 that it had received a notification from BlackRock, Inc. regarding a relevant change in BlackRock’s shareholding in the company under AIM rules. The notification, triggered on July 6, 2026, detailed ...
Caledonia Mining Reports Increase in BlackRock Shareholding Above 6%
Jul 1, 2026
Caledonia Mining said on July 1, 2026 that it was notified by BlackRock, Inc. of a change in its shareholding position after the asset manager crossed a disclosure threshold on June 26, 2026 under AIM rules. BlackRock’s aggregate interest, i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.