Caledonia Mining (CMCL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $590.53M
• Dividend Yield: 1.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 272.36K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.82
• Revenue Growth: 38.04%
• EPS Growth: 424.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,147
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.77
• Shares Outstanding: 19,304,785
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 204,101
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 272,356
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.99
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.58
• 1Y Price Target: $45.00
• Price Target Upside: 24.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $259.96M

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $32.00 ▼(-11.68% Downside)

Caledonia Mining's strong financial performance and reasonable valuation are key strengths, supported by robust revenue growth and profitability. However, technical indicators suggest weak market momentum, and operational challenges highlighted in the earnings call, such as increased costs and a fatality, pose risks. The stock's overall score reflects a balanced view of these factors.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Significant revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective pricing strategies, enhancing long-term financial stability.

Exploration Success

Successful exploration efforts expand resource base, supporting future production increases and revenue growth.

Strong Cash Position

A strong cash position provides financial flexibility for strategic investments and operational resilience.

Negative Factors

Increased Production Costs

Rising production costs can pressure profit margins and reduce competitiveness, impacting long-term profitability.

Fatality Impact

Safety incidents can disrupt operations and lead to regulatory scrutiny, affecting production and reputation.

Updated Cost Guidance

Higher cost guidance reflects operational challenges, potentially reducing margins and financial performance.

Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily engages in the operation of a gold mine. It also explores for and develops mineral properties for precious metals. The company holds 64% interest in the Blanket Mine, a gold mine located in Matabeleland South Province, Zimbabwe. It also has an agreement to purchase 100% ownership in the Maligreen project, a brownfield gold exploration project located in Gweru mining district in the Zimbabwe Midlands. The company was formerly known as Caledonia Mining Corporation and changed its name to Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc in March 2016. Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

Caledonia Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced at its Blanket Mine. The company employs a traditional mining revenue model, where it extracts gold ore and processes it to obtain gold bullion. The revenue from gold sales is influenced by global gold prices, which can fluctuate based on market demand, economic conditions, and geopolitical factors. Additionally, Caledonia Mining may benefit from cost management initiatives that reduce operational expenses and enhance profitability. The company may also engage in significant partnerships or agreements that support its operations, including collaborations for equipment supply, technology transfer, and exploration ventures that could lead to new discoveries and production sites.

Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Caledonia Mining shows strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, efficient operational management, and a stable balance sheet. The company effectively manages its cash flows, though past fluctuations suggest a need for ongoing attention. Low leverage and high return on equity are positive indicators, but the increase in debt levels should be monitored.

Income Statement

Caledonia Mining has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly in the TTM period with an 11.38% increase. The company maintains healthy profit margins, with a gross profit margin of 47.31% and a net profit margin of 17.59% in the TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, indicating efficient operational management. However, the company experienced a dip in revenue growth in 2023, which could be a potential risk if not addressed.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12 in the TTM, suggesting prudent leverage management. The return on equity has improved to 16.01%, showcasing effective utilization of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is solid, indicating a strong equity base relative to total assets. However, the increase in total debt over the years warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 46.30% in the TTM, highlighting enhanced cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, indicating good cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, though it has fluctuated in previous years, suggesting some variability in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	240.44M	183.02M	146.31M	142.08M	121.33M	100.00M
Gross Profit	118.51M	76.99M	41.48M	61.82M	54.07M	46.66M
EBITDA	108.45M	59.72M	25.48M	40.35M	44.20M	45.42M
Net Income	49.59M	17.90M	-7.86M	11.24M	17.40M	20.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	393.26M	348.36M	328.30M	235.19M	210.88M	177.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	15.67M	4.26M	4.25M	6.74M	17.15M	19.09M
Total Debt	23.80M	25.06M	25.06M	12.66M	1.35M	647.00K
Total Liabilities	116.79M	113.90M	104.10M	77.50M	58.41M	19.88M
Stockholders Equity	251.53M	213.88M	205.74M	140.74M	137.65M	141.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	31.09M	14.48M	-15.62M	-1.48M	-6.93M	3.12M
Operating Cash Flow	67.84M	41.95M	14.77M	42.62M	30.90M	30.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.05M	-32.05M	-31.16M	-44.33M	-35.92M	-28.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-14.71M	-7.80M	3.93M	-12.75M	2.37M	7.33M

Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 36.23
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.04, above the 50-day MA of 31.88, and above the 200-day MA of 21.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMCL.

Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CMCL	73 Outperform	$590.53M	11.69	20.25%	1.83%	38.04%	424.35%
IDR	66 Neutral	$571.93M	52.72	18.37%	―	61.35%	34.33%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CTGO	50 Neutral	$345.22M	―	-10.05%	―	―	97.09%

Caledonia Mining Corporate Events

Caledonia Mining Announces Change in Significant Shareholder Structure

On August 27, 2025, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc announced a change in its significant shareholder structure. Allan Gray Bermuda Limited, acting as an investment manager, reported that its clients now hold a 3.9649% interest in Caledonia’s total issued shares. This change, effective from August 25, 2025, could impact the company’s shareholder dynamics and influence its strategic decisions moving forward.