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Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL)
:CMCL
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Caledonia Mining
(NYSE MKT:CMCL)
Select Model
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$26.00
▼(-22.78% Downside)
Caledonia Mining's strong financial performance, supported by robust revenue growth and profitability, is the most significant factor driving the stock score. Positive technical indicators and a reasonable valuation further enhance the stock's attractiveness. The recent earnings call provided optimistic guidance, reinforcing the company's growth prospects despite some operational challenges.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The significant revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective operational execution, positioning the company for sustained expansion.
Cash Flow Generation
Improved cash flow generation enhances financial flexibility, allowing for reinvestment in growth initiatives and strengthening the balance sheet.
Production Milestone
Record production levels at Blanket Mine demonstrate operational efficiency and support increased output targets, driving future revenue growth.
Negative Factors
Increased Production Costs
Rising production costs can pressure profit margins, potentially impacting the company's ability to maintain its profitability levels over time.
Foreign Exchange Losses
Foreign exchange losses can erode earnings and create financial volatility, posing a risk to consistent financial performance.
Electricity Challenges
Electricity shortages in Zimbabwe could disrupt operations, affecting production efficiency and increasing operational costs.
Caledonia Mining (CMCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$649.66M
Dividend Yield1.66%
Average Volume (3M)278.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.8
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth28.06%
EPS Growth208.80%
CountryUS
Employees2,147
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.14
Shares Outstanding19,294,785
10 Day Avg. Volume320,095
30 Day Avg. Volume278,535
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.57
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.00Price Target Upside42.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionCaledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily engages in the operation of a gold mine. It also explores for and develops mineral properties for precious metals. The company holds 64% interest in the Blanket Mine, a gold mine located in Matabeleland South Province, Zimbabwe. It also has an agreement to purchase 100% ownership in the Maligreen project, a brownfield gold exploration project located in Gweru mining district in the Zimbabwe Midlands. The company was formerly known as Caledonia Mining Corporation and changed its name to Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc in March 2016. Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyCaledonia Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced at its Blanket Mine. The company sells its gold to various customers, including refiners and gold traders, often at market prices determined by global gold prices. Key revenue streams include gold production and sales, which are influenced by factors such as gold price fluctuations, production costs, and operational efficiency. Additionally, the company may benefit from any strategic partnerships or joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities or provide access to new markets. The company remains focused on increasing production through investments in mining infrastructure and exploration to expand its resource base, which will contribute to revenue growth.
Caledonia Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial growth, record production at Blanket Mine, and positive developments in Zimbabwe. However, challenges such as increased production costs and foreign exchange losses were also noted. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the challenges.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue and Growth
Revenue increased by 30% to $65 million, net profit attributable to shareholders up by 147% to just over $20 million, and adjusted earnings per share increased by 155%.
Strong Operating Cash Flows
Operating cash flows rose to $28 million, and the company ended the quarter with $8 million in net cash and another $18 million in fixed term deposits.
Production Milestone at Blanket Mine
Blanket Mine achieved a record production of over 21,000 ounces in the quarter, leading to an increase in full-year guidance to 77,500 to 79,500 ounces.
Successful Sale of Solar Plant
The sale of the solar plant realized $22.4 million, securing a long-term supply contract for Blanket and releasing capital for core business use.
Improved Safety Performance
The total injury frequency rate improved for the quarter and half year, with lost time injuries reduced from 4 to 1.
Positive Developments in Zimbabwe
The company noted improvements in Zimbabwe's physical security, foreign exchange stability, and ranking in the Fraser Institute survey.
Negative Updates
Increased Production Costs
Production costs rose by 18% for the quarter, driven by higher grades and plant recoveries, as well as a $2 million increase in labor costs.
Foreign Exchange Losses
The company faced foreign exchange losses, although they were lower than the comparative quarter.
Electricity Challenges in Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe produces less electricity than needed, although the government has been taking initiatives to address this.
Company Guidance
During the Q2 2025 results presentation for Caledonia Mining, the company provided optimistic guidance underpinned by strong financial and operational performance. They reported a 30% increase in revenue to $65 million and a 147% rise in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching over $20 million. Adjusted earnings per share increased by 155%, driven by robust operating cash flows of $28 million, with the quarter closing with $8 million in net cash and $18 million in fixed term deposits. The Blanket Mine achieved a record production of just over 21,000 ounces for the quarter, prompting an increase in full-year guidance to 77,500 to 79,500 ounces. The realized gold price stood at just under $3,200 per ounce. The company also discussed the successful sale of a solar plant for $22.4 million, securing a long-term supply contract for Blanket Mine. Additionally, they highlighted ongoing exploration efforts at Bilboes and Motapa, with a $2.8 million exploration program at Motapa progressing well. The company emphasized its commitment to minimizing equity dilution while maintaining dividend payments, reflecting a strategy aimed at maximizing net present value per share.Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Caledonia Mining exhibits strong financial health with robust revenue growth, profitability, and a solid balance sheet. The company effectively manages its debt levels, maintaining a low debt-to-equity ratio while achieving high returns on equity. Cash flow generation is improving, although there is potential to enhance free cash flow conversion. Overall, the company is well-positioned for sustainable growth in the gold industry.Income Statement
Caledonia Mining shows strong revenue growth with a 9.03% increase in TTM, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 47.31% and 17.59%, respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 35.82% and 39.47%. The company has consistently improved its profitability metrics over the years, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12, reflecting prudent financial leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 16.36%, showcasing efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 61.24%, indicating a solid capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Caledonia Mining demonstrates a positive free cash flow growth rate of 25.90% in TTM, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.10, suggesting good cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.36 indicates room for improvement in translating earnings into free cash flow.72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 213.44M | 173.75M | 138.68M | 142.08M | 121.33M | 100.00M |
| Gross Profit | 100.97M | 76.79M | 41.37M | 61.82M | 54.07M | 46.66M |
| EBITDA | 84.23M | 59.72M | 29.70M | 50.43M | 46.42M | 45.42M |
| Net Income | 37.53M | 17.90M | -4.20M | 17.90M | 18.41M | 20.78M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 389.17M | 348.36M | 328.30M | 235.19M | 210.88M | 177.92M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 37.86M | 4.26M | 6.71M | 4.74M | 17.15M | 19.09M |
| Total Debt | 27.98M | 25.06M | 25.06M | 12.66M | 1.35M | 647.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 127.51M | 113.90M | 64.11M | 41.73M | 30.32M | 19.88M |
| Stockholders Equity | 238.43M | 213.88M | 239.72M | 171.05M | 161.30M | 141.52M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 21.25M | 14.48M | -15.62M | -1.48M | -6.93M | 3.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 59.41M | 41.95M | 14.77M | 42.62M | 30.90M | 30.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -38.28M | -32.05M | -31.16M | -44.57M | -35.92M | -28.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -12.17M | -7.80M | 3.93M | -12.51M | 2.37M | 7.33M |
Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
33.67
Price Trends
25.46
Positive
21.63
Positive
16.07
Positive
Market Momentum
2.58
Negative
68.69
Neutral
83.47
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.19, above the 50-day MA of 25.46, and above the 200-day MA of 16.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CMCL.
Caledonia Mining Risk Analysis
Caledonia Mining disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Caledonia Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
CMCL
Caledonia Mining
33.67
19.06
130.46%
CTGO
Contango ORE
24.75
5.25
26.92%
IDR
Idaho Strategic Resources
30.51
14.91
95.58%
NAMM
Namib Minerals
3.34
-7.66
-69.64%
BGL
Blue Gold
9.22
-2.24
-19.55%
DC
Dakota Gold Corp
4.59
2.16
88.89%
Caledonia Mining Corporate Events
Caledonia Mining Announces Change in Significant Shareholder Structure
Sep 2, 2025
On August 27, 2025, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc announced a change in its significant shareholder structure. Allan Gray Bermuda Limited, acting as an investment manager, reported that its clients now hold a 3.9649% interest in Caledonia’s total issued shares. This change, effective from August 25, 2025, could impact the company’s shareholder dynamics and influence its strategic decisions moving forward.
Caledonia Mining Announces Change in Significant Shareholder
Aug 7, 2025
On August 6, 2025, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc announced a significant change in its shareholder structure. The company received a notification from BlackRock, Inc. on August 4, 2025, indicating that BlackRock had crossed a threshold for notification of a relevant change on August 1, 2025. This change reflects an adjustment in BlackRock’s voting rights and financial instruments, impacting Caledonia’s shareholder composition and potentially influencing its market dynamics.
Caledonia Mining Announces Shareholder Change as BlackRock Increases Stake
Aug 7, 2025
On August 6, 2025, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc announced a significant change in its shareholder structure, as BlackRock, Inc. crossed a notification threshold on August 4, 2025. This change in voting rights, as reported by BlackRock, indicates an increase in their stake to 5.37%, which may impact Caledonia’s shareholder dynamics and influence future corporate decisions.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.