Caledonia Mining (CMCL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $473.35M
• Dividend Yield: 2.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 244.32K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: 38.04%
• EPS Growth: 424.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,147
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.77
• Shares Outstanding: 19,304,785
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 231,052
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 244,321
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.99
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.51
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.97
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.58
• 1Y Price Target: $45.00
• Price Target Upside: 24.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $32.00 ▼(-11.68% Downside)

Caledonia Mining's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, supporting a solid stock score. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and operational challenges highlighted in the earnings call pose risks. The company's robust liquidity and exploration progress provide a positive outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth driven by rising gold prices demonstrates Caledonia Mining's ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions, enhancing its market position and financial health.

Exploration Progress

Positive exploration results indicate potential for resource expansion, supporting long-term growth and sustainability in gold production, which is critical for future revenue streams.

Feasibility Study Completion

The feasibility study for Bilboes Gold Project supports strategic expansion, potentially transforming Caledonia into a mid-tier producer, enhancing its competitive position and long-term growth prospects.

Negative Factors

Increased Production Costs

Rising production costs can pressure profit margins, reducing financial flexibility and potentially impacting long-term profitability if not managed effectively.

Fatality at Blanket Mine

Safety incidents can disrupt operations and lead to regulatory scrutiny, impacting productivity and increasing operational risks, which may affect long-term business stability.

Updated Cost Guidance

Higher cost guidance reflects increased operational expenses, which could strain margins and affect future earnings, challenging the company's ability to maintain cost efficiency.

Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc is a mining and exploration company focused primarily on gold production in Zimbabwe. The company operates the Blanket Mine, which is a significant gold producer and is known for its high-grade ore deposits. Caledonia is committed to sustainable mining practices and aims to generate long-term value for its shareholders through efficient operations and growth initiatives in the mining sector.

How the Company Makes Money

Caledonia Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced at its Blanket Mine. The company employs a model that involves extracting gold ore from the mine, processing it to obtain gold bullion, and then selling this bullion in the global market. Key revenue streams include direct sales of gold to refiners and through spot market transactions. Additionally, Caledonia benefits from cost management efficiencies and a stable production environment, which helps to enhance profit margins. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships with local and international entities to bolster its operational capabilities and expand its resource base, contributing to its overall financial performance.

Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Caledonia Mining shows strong financial health with consistent revenue and profit growth, efficient operational management, and a stable balance sheet. The company effectively manages its cash flows, though past fluctuations suggest a need for ongoing attention. Low leverage and high return on equity are positive indicators, but the increase in debt levels should be monitored.

Income Statement

Caledonia Mining has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly in the TTM period with an 11.38% increase. The company maintains healthy profit margins, with a gross profit margin of 47.31% and a net profit margin of 17.59% in the TTM. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, indicating efficient operational management. However, the company experienced a dip in revenue growth in 2023, which could be a potential risk if not addressed.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12 in the TTM, suggesting prudent leverage management. The return on equity has improved to 16.01%, showcasing effective utilization of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is solid, indicating a strong equity base relative to total assets. However, the increase in total debt over the years warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 46.30% in the TTM, highlighting enhanced cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, indicating good cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, though it has fluctuated in previous years, suggesting some variability in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	240.44M	183.02M	146.31M	142.08M	121.33M	100.00M
Gross Profit	118.51M	76.99M	41.48M	61.82M	54.07M	46.66M
EBITDA	108.45M	59.72M	25.48M	40.35M	44.20M	45.42M
Net Income	49.59M	17.90M	-7.86M	11.24M	17.40M	20.78M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	393.26M	348.36M	328.30M	235.19M	210.88M	177.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	15.67M	4.26M	4.25M	6.74M	17.15M	19.09M
Total Debt	23.80M	25.06M	25.06M	12.66M	1.35M	647.00K
Total Liabilities	116.79M	113.90M	104.10M	77.50M	58.41M	19.88M
Stockholders Equity	251.53M	213.88M	205.74M	140.74M	137.65M	141.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	31.09M	14.48M	-15.62M	-1.48M	-6.93M	3.12M
Operating Cash Flow	67.84M	41.95M	14.77M	42.62M	30.90M	30.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.05M	-32.05M	-31.16M	-44.33M	-35.92M	-28.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-14.71M	-7.80M	3.93M	-12.75M	2.37M	7.33M

Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 36.23
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 36.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.90, above the 50-day MA of 28.80, and above the 200-day MA of 22.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CMCL.

Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CMCL	73 Outperform	$473.35M	9.37	20.25%	2.34%	38.04%	424.35%
IDR	72 Outperform	$652.70M	61.72	18.37%	―	61.35%	34.33%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CTGO	50 Neutral	$394.85M	-144.43	-10.05%	―	―	97.09%

Caledonia Mining Corporate Events

Caledonia Mining Advances Bilboes Gold Project with Feasibility Study Completion

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc announced the completion and publication of the feasibility study for the Bilboes Gold Project on November 25, 2025, confirming a single-phase development as the most economic approach. The project is expected to deliver 1.55 million ounces of gold over 10.8 years with first production anticipated in late 2028. The feasibility study highlights robust project economics with a post-tax IRR of 32.5% and an all-in sustaining cost of US$1,061 per ounce. The project is fully permitted and located in Matabeleland North province, Zimbabwe. Caledonia plans to fund the project through non-recourse senior debt, internal equity, and flexible instruments, aiming to minimize equity issuance and maximize shareholder value. The project is expected to transform Caledonia into a mid-tier gold producer and contribute significantly to Zimbabwe’s economy.

Caledonia Mining Unveils New Feasibility Study for Bilboes Gold Project

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc has released a new Technical Report Summary for the Bilboes Gold Project in Zimbabwe, with an effective date of October 31, 2025. The report, prepared by DRA Projects, outlines a feasibility study for open-pit mining to recover gold mineralization, detailing mineral resources and reserves in compliance with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s regulations. The Bilboes project, operational since 1989, holds necessary permits and has produced significant gold quantities through open-pit mining. The report’s findings are expected to impact Caledonia’s operational strategies and stakeholder interests by providing a comprehensive assessment of the project’s potential.