Caledonia Mining (CMCL)
XASE:CMCL
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Caledonia Mining
(NYSE MKT:CMCL)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(6.91% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/14/26
Overall score is driven primarily by strengthened financial performance (high profitability and low leverage) and supportive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend). The main constraints are mixed technicals (negative MACD and price below longer-term averages) and earnings-call risks tied to rising costs, safety, and major project funding/execution needs.
Positive Factors
High profitability and margins
Caledonia’s trailing‑twelve‑month profitability is materially stronger than recent years, with very high gross and operating margins. Sustained margins support durable free cash generation and dividend capacity, providing internal funding for reinvestment and cushioning cyclical gold price swings over months.
Negative Factors
Large Bilboes capex and execution risk
Bilboes requires very large, multi‑year capital with material near‑term outlays and remaining debt/project finance to secure. The size and timing create refinancing and execution risk: delays, cost overruns or slower finance markets would strain liquidity, raise AISC and impair projected project returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability and margins
Caledonia’s trailing‑twelve‑month profitability is materially stronger than recent years, with very high gross and operating margins. Sustained margins support durable free cash generation and dividend capacity, providing internal funding for reinvestment and cushioning cyclical gold price swings over months.
Read all positive factors
Caledonia Mining (CMCL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$440.84M
Dividend Yield2.06%
Average Volume (3M)168.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.1
Beta (1Y)1.16
Revenue Growth40.20%
EPS Growth141.58%
CountryUS
Employees2,147
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.16
Shares Outstanding19,335,080
10 Day Avg. Volume236,169
30 Day Avg. Volume168,747
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)1.97
Price to Sales (P/S)2.01
P/FCF Ratio11.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.88
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.82
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside71.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)3.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$354.39M
Caledonia Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc primarily engages in the operation of a gold mine. It also explores for and develops mineral properties for precious metals. The company holds 64% interest in the Blanket Mine, a gold mine located in Matabeleland S...
How the Company Makes Money
Caledonia Mining makes money primarily by producing gold at its operating mine(s) and selling that gold into the market, with revenue largely driven by (1) the volume of gold produced and sold and (2) the realized gold price. The company’s operati...
Caledonia Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a very strong year of financial results driven by a higher gold price, successful capital raising (convertible), improved liquidity, active hedging and clear progress on the Bilboes project and exploration (Motapa and deep Blanket drilling). These positives were balanced by operational challenges: a fatal safety incident prompting a company-wide review, temporary lower grades and recovery, material increases in labor/consumable/power costs, derivative mark-to-market volatility, and sizable near-term CapEx and remaining debt financing needs for Bilboes. Management presented mitigations (safety program, shift changes to boost throughput and build stockpiles, major infrastructure upgrades such as 132 kV line and AC–DC conversion) and a funded staging strategy, but execution and timing risk for large project spend and potential upward pressure on AISC remain.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Revenue up 46% to $267,000,000; gross profit up 78% to $137,000,000; EBITDA up ~109% to $125,300,000; profit after tax up ~200% to $67,500,000; earnings per share $2.83 (up >200%).
Negative Updates
Fatal Safety Incident and Remedial Action
A fatality in September related to a secondary blasting incident; company initiated a comprehensive review of safety practices, training and controls and commits to embedding a zero-harm culture.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Performance
Revenue up 46% to $267,000,000; gross profit up 78% to $137,000,000; EBITDA up ~109% to $125,300,000; profit after tax up ~200% to $67,500,000; earnings per share $2.83 (up >200%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2025 delivered strong financials (revenue $267.0m, gross profit $137.0m, EBITDA $125.3m, profit after tax $67.5m, EPS $2.83, free cash flow $62m) from Blanket producing 76k oz (77k oz sold, ~1,683 oz inventory movement), with the mill operating near capacity (~820,000 tpa); on‑mine costs rose ~19% (group production costs +25%) and unit costs were marginally above prior guidance (previous AISC range $2,100–$2,300/oz expected to be adjusted for recent Board‑approved CapEx). For FY2026 the Board approved group CapEx of $178.9m (≈$136m for Bilboes, ~$4m exploration at Motapa), two near‑term projects of $14.2m (part of a $34m 132 kV line) and $2.2m for central‑winder AC→DC conversion, and management signalled ~$130m of Bilboes spend required in Q3–Q4 2026; Bilboes economics show $485m direct capital cost (≈$600m including capitalized interest and working capital), first pour targeted end‑2028 and peak ~200k oz/yr in 2029. Financing pillars include put options at $3,500/oz (Jan‑2026–Dec‑2028) to underwrite ~$200m–$300m of project funding, a $150m convertible (net $130m, 7‑year maturity) completed post‑year end, a targeted $150m interim bank facility and ongoing project finance discussions to close within ~12 months, and year‑end liquidity of cash $35.7m (total available funding ~ $55–60m).Caledonia Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 274.16M | 254.14M | 183.02M | 146.31M | 142.08M | 121.33M |
| Gross Profit | 142.30M | 137.12M | 76.99M | 41.48M | 61.82M | 54.07M |
| EBITDA | 137.13M | 131.30M | 59.72M | 25.48M | 40.35M | 44.20M |
| Net Income | 62.16M | 55.22M | 17.90M | -7.86M | 11.24M | 17.40M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 553.16M | 411.89M | 348.36M | 328.30M | 235.19M | 210.88M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 170.03M | 35.74M | 4.26M | 4.25M | 6.74M | 17.15M |
| Total Debt | 115.85M | 32.60M | 25.06M | 25.06M | 12.66M | 1.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 253.70M | 128.35M | 113.90M | 104.10M | 77.50M | 58.41M |
| Stockholders Equity | 271.85M | 259.00M | 213.88M | 205.74M | 140.74M | 137.65M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 48.39M | 43.40M | 14.48M | -15.62M | -1.48M | -6.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 81.32M | 76.23M | 41.95M | 14.77M | 42.62M | 30.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -35.18M | -24.53M | -32.05M | -31.16M | -44.33M | -35.92M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 119.19M | -19.15M | -7.80M | 3.93M | -12.75M | 2.37M |
Caledonia Mining Technical Analysis
Negative
26.19
Price Trends
23.56
Negative
26.15
Negative
27.38
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.29
Positive
44.53
Neutral
17.53
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CMCL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.13, above the 50-day MA of 23.56, and below the 200-day MA of 27.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CMCL.
Caledonia Mining Risk Analysis
Caledonia Mining disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Caledonia Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Caledonia Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $573.42M | 19.86 | 24.58% | ― | 82.76% | 124.83% | |
77 Outperform | $440.84M | 7.06 | 24.36% | 2.06% | 40.20% | 141.58% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $633.89M | -5.65 | -28.15% | ― | ― | 33.11% | |
47 Neutral | $77.91M | 0.52 | 45.61% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
CMCL
Caledonia Mining
22.80
5.98
35.54%
CTGO
Contango ORE
20.60
0.23
1.13%
IDR
Idaho Strategic Resources
36.27
22.23
158.33%
NAMM
Namib Minerals
1.43
-7.62
-84.20%
BGL
Blue Gold
0.88
-3.17
-78.27%
DC
Dakota Gold Corp
5.23
2.22
73.75%
Caledonia Mining Corporate Events
Caledonia Mining Discloses Updated Major Holding as BlackRock Rebalances 6.55% Stake
Mar 30, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Caledonia Mining reported that it had been notified on March 27, 2026 of a change in a significant shareholding after BlackRock, Inc. crossed a disclosure threshold on March 26, 2026 under AIM rules. BlackRock now holds 6.55% of...
Caledonia Mining Announces Slight Change in BlackRock Shareholding Position
Mar 27, 2026
Caledonia Mining reported on March 27, 2026 that it received a notification from BlackRock, Inc. on March 26 confirming that the asset manager had crossed a disclosure threshold in the company’s shares on March 25 under AIM Rules. BlackRock ...
Caledonia Mining Sets March 23 Date to Release Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
Mar 11, 2026
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc announced on March 11, 2026 that it plans to publish its operating and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 on March 23, 2026. The company will host a remote presentation a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.