Contango ORE (CTGO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $505.82M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 241.06K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 97.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 2.04
• Shares Outstanding: 16,821,321
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 201,109
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 241,064
• PEG Ratio: 0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 166.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 303.67
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.60
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -942.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -12.23
• 1Y Price Target: $38.67
• Price Target Upside: 28.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.9
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $30.00 ▼(-0.23% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is primarily held back by weak underlying financial performance quality (no revenue, losses, and historically strained balance sheet), partially offset by strong recent cash generation. Earnings-call guidance and multiple positive corporate updates improve the outlook, while technicals are mildly supportive but not strongly bullish. Valuation remains a downside factor due to loss-making results (negative P/E) and no stated dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Sustained positive operating and free cash flow (~$50.3M TTM) provides durable internal funding for exploration, hedge reshaping, and working capital. Over 2-6 months this reduces reliance on dilutive financings and supports capital allocation to development and JV activities.

Improved liquidity from JV distribution

A materially stronger cash balance ($107M after an $87M JV distribution) materially boosts liquidity resilience. This enables management to de-risk the hedge book, fund near-term mine programs and M&A activity, and cover sustaining capex without immediate external financing.

High-quality project pipeline & permitting

High-grade Lucky Shot drill results and FAST-41 inclusion for Johnson Tract signal durable resource and development optionality. These structural advances increase the chance of low-capex, near-mine production or feasible projects that can sustainably add ounces and cash over multi-year horizons.

Negative Factors

No recorded revenue / recurring losses

Absence of recorded revenue and a history of net losses indicate core operating profitability is not yet established. Reliance on asset sales, JV distributions or one-offs makes cash flow less predictable and heightens execution risk if cash generation weakens.

Leverage and historically stressed equity

Meaningful debt and past negative equity reflect an aggressive capital structure. This limits financial flexibility, raises refinancing and covenant risk, and increases vulnerability to write-downs or commodity-price shocks, potentially forcing dilutive financing to fund development.

Hedge-related P&L and cash volatility

Large unrealized derivative losses and a sizeable hedge inventory have generated earnings volatility and necessitated cash-funded hedge settlements. Reshaping the hedge book consumes liquidity and creates execution risk; legacy hedges can distort reported profitability despite underlying project progress.

Contango ORE Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Contango Ore, Inc., an exploration stage company, engages in the exploration of gold and associated minerals in the United States. It also explores for copper and silver deposits. The company, through its subsidiaries, leases approximately 675,000 acres from the Tetlin Tribal Council and approximately 13,000 State of Alaska mining claims for exploration and development; and owns 100% interest in the mineral rights to approximately 200,000 acres of State of Alaska mining claims located north and northwest of the Tetlin Lease. The company also holds interest in the Shamrock property that consists of 361 Alaska state mining claims covering approximately 52,640 acres. Contango Ore, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Contango ORE makes money through its exploration and development activities in the mineral sector, primarily focusing on gold. The company's revenue model involves acquiring promising mineral properties, conducting exploration activities to assess and prove the viability of mineral deposits, and then developing these properties to increase their value. The company may also enter into joint ventures or partnerships to share the risks and costs associated with exploration and development. Key revenue streams include the potential sale of mineral resources, royalties from developed properties, and potential partnerships with larger mining companies that provide capital and operational expertise in exchange for a stake in the project.

Contango ORE Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is the main strength (TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow both ~+$50.3M), but earnings quality is weak with no recorded revenue, recurring losses, and historically stressed equity/leverage (including negative equity in 2023 and meaningful debt in TTM). Overall financial improvement appears driven more by cash movements/one-offs than consistent operating profitability.

Income Statement

CTGO shows no recorded revenue across the provided periods, and gross profit is consistently negative, indicating an absence of operating profitability. Net results have been volatile—2021 posted positive net income, but subsequent annual periods returned to sizable losses (including a very large loss in 2023), and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) remains slightly loss-making. While TTM includes a notably positive EBIT figure, the broader earnings profile is inconsistent and heavily pressured by costs/impairments or other non-operating swings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is a key risk: total debt is meaningful (about $42.1M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)) and the debt-to-equity picture has been stressed historically, including periods of negative equity (2023) and very thin equity (2025 annual). The latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) balance sheet shows improved equity (~$47.8M) and a larger asset base (~$217.7M), but the capital structure still appears aggressive and sensitive to further losses or asset write-downs.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the clearest strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow (~$50.3M) and free cash flow (~$50.3M) are strongly positive with solid free-cash-flow growth. This is a sharp improvement versus prior years that showed negative operating and free cash flow. However, the history of cash burn and the ongoing net loss in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) suggest cash flows may be lumpy and potentially driven by working-capital movements or one-time items rather than stable, repeatable operating earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Dec 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-320.29K	-131.42K	-117.81K	-148.36K	-64.89K	0.00
EBITDA	-24.68M	-26.25M	-76.70M	-17.51M	-23.14M	35.83M
Net Income	-1.29M	-38.03M	-81.53M	-39.74M	-23.51M	23.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	217.66M	133.89M	58.59M	25.66M	37.29M	35.97M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	106.98M	20.06M	15.50M	11.65M	23.10M	35.22M
Total Debt	42.10M	68.97M	44.68M	25.46M	19.24M	0.00
Total Liabilities	169.85M	132.62M	73.14M	30.44M	24.02M	1.42M
Stockholders Equity	47.81M	1.27M	-14.54M	-4.77M	13.27M	34.55M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	50.30M	698.99K	-9.44M	-14.68M	-13.99M	-8.41M
Operating Cash Flow	50.26M	698.99K	-9.43M	-14.68M	-13.95M	-8.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-576.52K	-32.13M	-34.39M	-21.12M	-15.39M	27.35M
Financing Cash Flow	21.00M	36.01M	47.68M	24.35M	17.44M	13.23M

Contango ORE Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 30.07
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTGO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.93, above the 50-day MA of 28.51, and above the 200-day MA of 23.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTGO.

Contango ORE Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IDR	72 Outperform	$671.56M	61.91	18.37%	―	61.35%	34.33%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CTGO	60 Neutral	$505.82M	-157.19	-10.05%	―	―	97.09%
HYMC	52 Neutral	$4.18B	-30.91	-374.60%	―	―	40.02%

Contango ORE Corporate Events

Contango ORE Reports High-Grade Gold at Lucky Shot

On February 25, 2026, Contango ORE reported initial assay results from its 2025/2026 underground diamond drilling program at the Lucky Shot Project in Alaska, where drilling began in November 2025. The first 20 holes totaling 2,063 meters confirmed high-grade gold mineralization in the historically mined L2 vein and underlying L1b and L1c veins, including standout intercepts such as 60.22 g/t gold over 5.92 meters and 294.77 g/t gold over 1.16 meters.

The program also delineated a new shallow-dipping mineralized structure, the KM vein, whose high-grade intercepts highlight structural complexity and suggest additional exploration upside within the existing underground footprint. These results underpin Contango’s plan to grow and better constrain the Lucky Shot resource base, feed a mineral resource update and feasibility study targeted for the first half of 2027, and strengthen the project’s potential as a direct-shipping ore operation.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTGO) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Contango ORE stock, see the CTGO Stock Forecast page.

Contango ORE Sets Special Meeting on Dolly Varden Deal

On February 23, 2026, Contango ORE, Inc. announced it had filed and mailed its definitive proxy statement and related materials for a March 17, 2026 virtual special meeting of shareholders tied to its proposed plan of arrangement with Dolly Varden Silver Corporation. At the meeting, investors will vote on approving the issuance of Contango common stock to Dolly Varden shareholders, a significant increase in authorized shares from 45 million to 250 million, and a new 2026 omnibus incentive plan.

Under the arrangement agreement signed on December 7, 2025, Dolly Varden shares would be acquired at a fixed exchange ratio of 0.1652 Contango share per Dolly Varden share through a court-approved plan of arrangement under British Columbia law. Contango’s board unanimously backs the deal, arguing that the combination will create a well-funded, North American-focused precious metals company with a diversified portfolio spanning the Manh Choh gold mine in Alaska and high-grade silver and gold projects in British Columbia and Alaska, and notes that directors, officers and key shareholders holding about 22% of each company’s shares have entered voting support agreements.

The board highlights expected benefits including greater scale, increased market capitalization, improved capital markets profile, broader research coverage and institutional ownership, as well as a shared focus on high-grade, low-capex projects near infrastructure that may support more capital-efficient development strategies. Governance of the combined entity would be broadened, with three Dolly Varden directors joining a seven-member board and a management team comprised of experienced mining and business executives, while a fairness opinion from Canaccord Genuity concluded the exchange ratio is financially fair to Contango shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTGO) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Contango ORE stock, see the CTGO Stock Forecast page.

Contango ORE Advances Johnson Tract Permitting and Production

On February 17, 2026, Contango ORE, Inc. reported that its Johnson Tract Critical Metals Project permitting schedule was added to the federal FAST-41 Dashboard on January 30, 2026, with its first permit application submitted on February 2, 2026. Management said the move should keep the multi-agency review on a transparent and coordinated track, underscoring Johnson Tract’s emergence as a priority critical metals development in Alaska.

The company also disclosed that the Peak Gold joint venture began its first 2026 production campaign on February 5, 2026, processing Manh Choh ore at Kinross’s Fort Knox mill without interruption despite a recent conveyor fire. In a separate financing and risk-management step announced February 12, 2026, Contango paid about $46.4 million to settle most of its 2026 gold hedge contracts while buying matching put options, leaving a smaller hedge position and giving shareholders greater exposure to current high gold prices.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTGO) stock is a Hold with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Contango ORE stock, see the CTGO Stock Forecast page.

Contango ORE Announces $50 Million Equity Offering

On February 11, 2026, Contango ORE, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement for an underwritten public offering to two institutional investors, comprising 1,678,206 common shares at $24.96 each and a pre-funded warrant for 325,000 shares priced at $24.95 with a $0.01 exercise price. Aggregate gross proceeds are expected to be about $50 million, with net proceeds estimated at roughly $47.2 million after underwriting discounts and expenses.

The company plans to allocate approximately $45 million of the net proceeds to buy back gold hedge contracts and about $700,000 to purchase gold put contracts for downside protection, with any remaining funds reserved for general corporate purposes, including working capital. This financing, conducted under an effective shelf registration and led by Canaccord Genuity as sole bookrunner, is set to materially reshape Contango’s hedge book and risk management profile, potentially increasing its exposure to gold prices while adding structured downside insurance for stakeholders.

As part of the structure, the pre-funded warrant is immediately exercisable at $0.01 per share but includes ownership caps limiting any holder to under 9.99% of outstanding stock, adjustable up to 19.99% subject to a waiting period. These limitations, along with customary underwriting terms and protections, are designed to manage concentration of ownership and facilitate institutional participation while preserving flexibility around future corporate actions and capital structure adjustments.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTGO) stock is a Hold with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Contango ORE stock, see the CTGO Stock Forecast page.

Contango ORE Announces Merger with Dolly Varden Silver

On December 7, 2025, Contango ORE, Inc. announced a merger agreement with Dolly Varden Silver Corporation to form a new entity, Contango Silver & Gold Inc. This merger aims to create a North American-focused silver and gold producer with a balanced portfolio of assets ranging from exploration to production stages. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, with shareholders of both companies holding equal stakes in the new entity. The merger is strategically positioned to leverage the high-grade Manh Choh gold mine for funding future developments and is anticipated to enhance the combined company’s market presence and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTGO) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Contango ORE stock, see the CTGO Stock Forecast page.

Contango ORE’s Project Joins FAST-41 Program

On December 1, 2025, Contango ORE, Inc. announced that its Johnson Tract Critical Metals Project was accepted into the Federal Permitting Improvement Steering Council’s FAST-41 program. This inclusion is expected to enhance the project’s permitting process through improved coordination, transparency, and accountability, potentially advancing the project’s development and aligning with high environmental and regulatory standards.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTGO) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Contango ORE stock, see the CTGO Stock Forecast page.