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Contango ORE (CTGO)
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Contango ORE (CTGO) AI Stock Analysis

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CTGO

Contango ORE

(NYSE MKT:CTGO)

Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
Contango ORE's overall stock score reflects a company in transition. While technical indicators suggest positive momentum, financial performance remains weak due to high leverage and lack of profitability. Earnings call highlights show potential for improvement, but valuation concerns persist, balancing the outlook.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
CTGO now expects 2025 cash distributions from its Alaskan gold mine joint venture to exceed $95M, up from March 2025 guidance of $80M.
Gold Production
2Q25 gold production was 18,618 ounces, exceeding the forecast of 18,000 ounces.
Market Conditions
The average gold prices have increased 40.3% year over year, indicating a favorable market condition for gold producers.
Negative Factors
Cost Management
CTGO expects costs to increase quarter over quarter from 1Q25.
Hedges and Financial Losses
CTGO realizes a loss on the gold price hedges in its credit facility after receiving cash distributions.
Timing of Sales
CTGO's gold sales were below forecast due to a difference in production versus timing of sales.

Contango ORE (CTGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Contango ORE Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionContango Ore, Inc., an exploration stage company, engages in the exploration of gold and associated minerals in the United States. It also explores for copper and silver deposits. The company, through its subsidiaries, leases approximately 675,000 acres from the Tetlin Tribal Council and approximately 13,000 State of Alaska mining claims for exploration and development; and owns 100% interest in the mineral rights to approximately 200,000 acres of State of Alaska mining claims located north and northwest of the Tetlin Lease. The company also holds interest in the Shamrock property that consists of 361 Alaska state mining claims covering approximately 52,640 acres. Contango Ore, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyContango ORE makes money through its exploration and development activities in the mineral sector, primarily focusing on gold. The company's revenue model involves acquiring promising mineral properties, conducting exploration activities to assess and prove the viability of mineral deposits, and then developing these properties to increase their value. The company may also enter into joint ventures or partnerships to share the risks and costs associated with exploration and development. Key revenue streams include the potential sale of mineral resources, royalties from developed properties, and potential partnerships with larger mining companies that provide capital and operational expertise in exchange for a stake in the project.

Contango ORE Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights significant financial improvements, strong cash flow, and effective hedging and debt management strategies. However, operational and legal challenges persist, particularly concerning capital expenditures and ongoing legal issues. Despite these challenges, the overall sentiment is positive due to the strong financial turnaround and strategic management.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Turnaround in Financial Performance
Contango Ore reported operating earnings of $23 million and net income of $16 million, a significant improvement from last year's $3.1 million operating loss and $18.5 million net loss.
Cash Flow Improvements
Generated $36.9 million in operating cash flow for the first half of the year compared to $6.9 million last year. $30 million in Q2 distributions from Peak Gold, $54 million year-to-date.
Successful Gold Production and Recovery Rates
The company averaged 92-93% recovery rates for gold production, maintaining a 2:1 oxide to sulfide ore ratio.
Hedge and Debt Management
Reduced the hedge book from 74,800 to 62,900 ounces and paid down $29 million in debt, bringing it to $23 million with plans to reduce it further to $15 million by year-end.
Negative Updates
Operational Challenges and Expenditures
The need to replace trucks with over 1 million miles and the addition of an oxygen sparging circuit indicate ongoing capital expenditures.
Legal and Permitting Challenges
Lawsuit against the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers related to the Johnson Tract project is pending, and the permitting process for JT and Lucky Shot projects continues to be a focus.
Company Guidance
In the recent call, Contango Ore provided detailed guidance on their financial and operational performance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025. The company reported operating earnings of $23 million and a net income of $16 million, marking a significant turnaround from a $3.1 million operating loss and an $18.5 million net loss in the same quarter last year. Their cash costs for the quarter were $1,416, with a year-to-date cost of $1,375, while the all-in sustaining costs were $1,548 for the quarter and $1,462 year-to-date. Contango Ore is focused on reducing debt, with $29 million already paid down, and plans to end the year with approximately $15 million in debt. They also discussed operational consistency at the Manh Choh project, with gold processed at a steady grade of 0.23 ounces per ton. The company anticipates a steady path forward with ongoing ore processing at Fort Knox and plans for underground development at Johnson Tract and Lucky Shot projects, as they aim to maintain and improve their financial standing.

Contango ORE Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Contango ORE's financial performance is reflective of a development-stage company in the mining industry. The lack of revenue, high leverage, and ongoing financial losses highlight significant operational and financial risks. While recent equity improvements suggest some positive changes, overall financial health remains weak.
Income Statement
20
Very Negative
Contango ORE shows no revenue generation, with gross profit and net income remaining negative. The company experienced losses with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. This indicates operational challenges and a lack of profitability, common in companies focused on exploration and development without current production.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio due to significant liabilities compared to its equity. The negative equity in previous years signals potential risks, though recent improvements in equity have been noted. The equity ratio is low, pointing to a leveraged position, common in the mining industry during development stages.
Cash Flow
25
Negative
Operating cash flow is marginally positive but insufficient to cover net losses. Free cash flow has been volatile, reflecting the company's ongoing cash burn in its development phase. The reliance on financing activities to support operations highlights operational cash flow challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit-434.73K-131.42K-117.81K-148.36K-64.89K0.00
EBITDA-26.25M-26.25M-76.70M-17.51M-23.14M35.83M
Net Income-5.61M-38.03M-81.53M-39.74M-23.51M23.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets114.28M133.89M58.59M25.66M37.29M35.97M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments36.45M20.06M15.50M11.65M23.10M35.22M
Total Debt17.50M68.97M44.68M25.46M19.24M0.00
Total Liabilities155.53M132.62M73.14M30.44M24.02M1.42M
Stockholders Equity-2.39M1.27M-14.54M-4.77M13.27M34.55M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow44.50M698.99K-9.44M-14.68M-13.99M-8.41M
Operating Cash Flow44.49M698.99K-9.43M-14.68M-13.95M-8.38M
Investing Cash Flow-5.04M-32.13M-34.39M-21.12M-15.39M27.35M
Financing Cash Flow-27.24M36.01M47.68M24.35M17.44M13.23M

Contango ORE Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price21.39
Price Trends
50DMA
20.45
Positive
100DMA
18.68
Positive
200DMA
14.95
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.38
Negative
RSI
54.71
Neutral
STOCH
69.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTGO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.40, above the 50-day MA of 20.45, and above the 200-day MA of 14.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTGO.

Contango ORE Risk Analysis

Contango ORE disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Contango ORE reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Contango ORE Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
62
Neutral
$10.28B6.210.76%2.84%3.10%-36.03%
52
Neutral
$88.69M-103.39%-39.10%9.45%
50
Neutral
$271.00M-9999.00%91.60%
$172.66M-141.56%
70
Outperform
$409.20M43.6023.79%59.64%61.41%
45
Neutral
$74.31M-23.96%-10.14%
31
Underperform
$215.79M
31.11%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CTGO
Contango ORE
21.58
2.62
13.82%
USAU
US Gold
12.47
7.24
138.43%
GORO
Gold Resource
0.75
0.41
120.59%
PZG
Paramount Gold Nevada
1.04
0.60
136.36%
HYMC
Hycroft Mining Holding
5.50
3.48
172.28%
IDR
Idaho Strategic Resources
27.84
15.45
124.70%

Contango ORE Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Contango ORE Advocates for Alaskan Economy in DC
Positive
Apr 30, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Contango ORE, Inc. announced its participation in the ‘Alaska On The Hill’ event in Washington DC, advocating for the Alaskan economy and discussing its mining projects. The company is on track to produce 60,000 ounces of gold from the Manh Choh mine in 2025 and plans to release its Johnson Tract PEA and Q1-2025 financials soon, highlighting a promising period for mining in Alaska.

Spark’s Take on CTGO Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CTGO is a Neutral.

Contango ORE’s stock score reflects the company’s challenging financial performance, characterized by high leverage and ongoing losses typical of its development stage in the mining industry. However, strong technical momentum and positive outcomes from recent earnings calls and corporate events suggest potential for future growth and stabilization. Valuation concerns persist due to the lack of profitability.

To see Spark’s full report on CTGO stock, click here.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Contango ORE Announces $9 Million Cash Distribution
Positive
Apr 24, 2025

On April 24, 2025, Contango ORE, Inc. announced a $9 million cash distribution from the Peak Gold JV, marking a total of $33 million in distributions from gold sales in 2025. The company completed its first production campaign, yielding approximately 20,000 ounces of gold, and plans to start the second campaign in mid-May. Contango’s operations at Manh Choh are on track, with an expected production of 60,000 ounces of gold for 2025 at an all-in-sustaining cost of $1,625 per ounce. The company has also reduced its credit facility balance and hedge contract obligations, and anticipates releasing its Q1-2025 financial results on May 14, 2025.

Spark’s Take on CTGO Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CTGO is a Neutral.

Contango ORE’s stock score reflects a challenging financial performance characteristic of its development stage, with high leverage and operational losses. However, strong technical momentum, positive earnings call outcomes, and favorable corporate events suggest potential for future growth and stabilization. Valuation remains a concern due to the lack of profitability.

To see Spark’s full report on CTGO stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Contango ORE Reports $24 Million Cash Distribution
Positive
Mar 31, 2025

On March 31, 2025, Contango ORE, Inc. announced that it received $24 million in cash distributions from the Peak Gold JV in the first quarter of 2025. This includes $9 million from 2024 production profits and $15 million from the first half of Campaign #1 for 2025. The company reported that the Peak Gold JV processed 323,000 tons of ore, recovering approximately 65,000 ounces of gold, with Contango’s share being 19,500 ounces, surpassing initial guidance. The company expects further cash distributions and continues to advance its projects and improve operations.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Contango ORE Reports 2024 Financial Results and Progress
Neutral
Mar 17, 2025

On March 17, 2025, Contango ORE, Inc. announced its financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, reporting a net loss of $38.0 million despite achieving gold production that exceeded guidance at the Manh Choh mine. The company’s financial position improved with a cash position of $20.1 million, and significant progress was made in debt reduction and hedge contract settlements. The company is focused on furthering its Johnson Tract project with ongoing drilling and permitting efforts, while maintaining strong cash flow through linked gold production to spot prices.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Contango ORE Highlights Strong Manh Choh Project Performance
Positive
Mar 3, 2025

On February 28, 2025, Contango ORE released a corporate presentation detailing its financial measures and operations, including its joint venture with Kinross Gold Corporation. The presentation highlighted the company’s progress in its Manh Choh project, which began commercial production in July 2024, exceeding production guidance by 30% and generating strong cash flows. The company also outlined its future production targets and financial expectations, positioning itself well within the industry.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Contango ORE Amends Credit Facility for Flexibility
Positive
Feb 18, 2025

On February 18, 2025, Contango ORE, Inc. announced amendments to its credit facility to defer $10.6 million in principal repayments and extend the maturity date to mid-2027. This adjustment is expected to align better with their extended ore haul plan, allowing for more flexibility in debt repayment and exposure to potential gold price increases. Contango also commenced its first gold production campaign of the year on February 7, 2025, with anticipated production of 15,000 to 18,000 ounces of gold. These developments are poised to strengthen the company’s financial standing and operational efficiency, potentially increasing cash flows significantly if gold prices remain high.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 01, 2025