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Contango ORE (CTGO)
:CTGO
US Market

Contango ORE (CTGO) AI Stock Analysis

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Contango ORE

(NYSE MKT:CTGO)

Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
Contango ORE's overall stock score reflects a company in transition. While technical indicators suggest positive momentum, financial performance remains weak due to high leverage and lack of profitability. Earnings call highlights show potential for improvement, but valuation concerns persist, balancing the outlook.
Positive Factors
Earnings
CTGO reported free cash flow above forecast due to higher than expected gold production and lower costs.
Financial Performance
CTGO reported more gold sales and higher EBITDA than expected.
Revenue
Gold prices reached all-time highs, driven by increased purchases by central banks, which can positively impact CTGO's revenue.
Negative Factors
Cost Management
CTGO expects costs to increase quarter over quarter from 1Q25.
Debt
CTGO had a cash burn of $9.9M due to realized losses on derivative contracts.
Production Guidance
CTGO has reduced its forecasts due to new guidance for 2025 gold production and higher costs associated with processing and transporting ore.

Contango ORE (CTGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Contango ORE Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionContango ORE, Inc. (CTGO) is a Houston-based exploration and development company focused on the acquisition and development of mineral properties in Alaska. The company primarily engages in gold exploration, working to develop its Peak Gold project, among other mineral assets. Contango ORE aims to identify and develop resource-rich properties to create value through strategic exploration and development activities.
How the Company Makes MoneyContango ORE makes money through its exploration and development activities in the mineral sector, primarily focusing on gold. The company's revenue model involves acquiring promising mineral properties, conducting exploration activities to assess and prove the viability of mineral deposits, and then developing these properties to increase their value. The company may also enter into joint ventures or partnerships to share the risks and costs associated with exploration and development. Key revenue streams include the potential sale of mineral resources, royalties from developed properties, and potential partnerships with larger mining companies that provide capital and operational expertise in exchange for a stake in the project.

Contango ORE Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 57.67%|
Next Earnings Date:Feb 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a strong operational performance with increased gold production and effective debt reduction, alongside strategic hedge management. However, the financial results were impacted by a net loss due to unrealized hedge losses and anticipated increases in costs. While the highlights indicate significant achievements, the lowlights reflect ongoing financial management challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Gold Production
The company sold over 17,000 ounces of gold with another 3,800 ounces in recoverable inventory, achieving a production level 30% higher than planned for Q1.
Improved Cash Position and Debt Reduction
Contango ended the quarter with $35 million in cash, made principal repayments of $13.8 million, and further reduced the facility balance to $30 million, with plans to reduce it to $15 million by year-end.
Successful Hedge Management
The company effectively managed its hedges through a carry trade, maintaining a balance of 71,000 ounces as of the call and plans to finish the year with about 43,000 ounces in hedges.
Dismissal of Lawsuit
A lawsuit by Citizens for Safe Communities was dismissed, benefiting both the Manh Choh project and mining operations in Alaska in general.
Johnson Tract NPV and Development
The Johnson Tract project boasts an impressive NPV of over $400 million at current gold prices, with plans underway for permitting an underground access tunnel.
Negative Updates
Net Loss for the Quarter
Contango reported a net loss of $22.5 million for the quarter, primarily due to an unrealized loss of $40.5 million related to hedge contracts.
Increased Cash Costs and ASIC
Cash costs were $1,334 per ounce of gold sold, and the ASIC was $1,374, with expectations to rise to $1,625 later in the year due to increased sustaining capital and exploration expenses.
Hedge Obligation Challenges
Despite effective management, hedge obligations continue to be a significant aspect of financial strategy, with 70% of gold production hedged.
Company Guidance
In the recent call discussing Contango Ore's Q1 financials for the fiscal year 2025, several key metrics and guidance updates were provided. The company reported a net loss of $22.5 million, which included an unrealized loss of $40.5 million related to hedge contracts. Despite this, they recorded $19 million in income from operations, primarily driven by $22.3 million in equity income from the Peak Gold JV. During the quarter, Manh Choh operations sold over 17,000 ounces of gold with an all-in sustaining cost (ASIC) of $1,374 per ounce, outperforming the guidance of $1,625 due to incremental improvements in operations. The guidance for 2025 remains at 60,000 ounces of gold with an anticipated ASIC increase later in the year. The company ended the quarter with $35 million in cash and $900,000 in marketable securities, which subsequently rose to $4 million. Additionally, principal repayments on debt reduced the facility balance to $30 million. Plans for the remainder of the year include further debt reduction and exploration programs, with expectations to end the year with a $15 million facility balance. The call also highlighted ongoing improvements in operations and the strategic handling of hedge obligations.

Contango ORE Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Contango ORE's financial performance is reflective of a development-stage company in the mining industry. The lack of revenue, high leverage, and ongoing financial losses highlight significant operational and financial risks. While recent equity improvements suggest some positive changes, overall financial health remains weak.
Income Statement
20
Very Negative
Contango ORE shows no revenue generation, with gross profit and net income remaining negative. The company experienced losses with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. This indicates operational challenges and a lack of profitability, common in companies focused on exploration and development without current production.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio due to significant liabilities compared to its equity. The negative equity in previous years signals potential risks, though recent improvements in equity have been noted. The equity ratio is low, pointing to a leveraged position, common in the mining industry during development stages.
Cash Flow
25
Negative
Operating cash flow is marginally positive but insufficient to cover net losses. Free cash flow has been volatile, reflecting the company's ongoing cash burn in its development phase. The reliance on financing activities to support operations highlights operational cash flow challenges.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2023Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit
-574.18K-118.00K-137.00K-55.74K0.000.00
EBIT
20.61M-17.65M-9.62M-19.48M-10.66M-5.59M
EBITDA
-27.36M-76.70M-37.96M-23.14M35.83M-5.59M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-40.08M-81.53M-39.74M-23.51M23.87M-9.24M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
34.98M15.50M11.65M23.10M35.22M3.01M
Total Assets
110.31M58.59M25.66M37.29M35.97M3.08M
Total Debt
24.70M44.68M25.46M19.24M0.000.00
Net Debt
-10.28M29.18M13.81M-3.86M-35.22M-3.01M
Total Liabilities
167.87M73.14M30.44M24.02M1.42M1.09M
Stockholders Equity
-20.50M-14.54M-4.77M13.27M34.55M1.99M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
33.68M-14.68M-13.99M-8.41M-1.39M
Operating Cash Flow
33.67M-9.43M-14.68M-13.95M-8.38M-1.39M
Investing Cash Flow
-16.67M-34.39M-21.12M-15.39M27.35M-3.72M
Financing Cash Flow
10.36M47.68M24.35M17.44M13.23M-476.67K

Contango ORE Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price20.26
Price Trends
50DMA
15.46
Positive
100DMA
12.78
Positive
200DMA
14.88
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.49
Positive
RSI
64.63
Neutral
STOCH
47.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTGO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.18, above the 50-day MA of 15.46, and above the 200-day MA of 14.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTGO.

Contango ORE Risk Analysis

Contango ORE disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Contango ORE reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Contango ORE Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
IDIDR
64
Neutral
$194.82M23.3126.95%67.42%137.01%
52
Neutral
$87.74M-103.61%-34.57%-238.18%
51
Neutral
$2.04B-1.23-21.09%3.96%2.90%-30.45%
50
Neutral
$257.35M-9999.00%18.69%
PZPZG
45
Neutral
$42.15M-23.96%0.16%
31
Underperform
$84.94M
1.67%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CTGO
Contango ORE
20.26
1.43
7.59%
GORO
Gold Resource
0.65
0.23
54.76%
PZG
Paramount Gold Nevada
0.62
0.18
40.91%
HYMC
Hycroft Mining Holding
3.10
0.51
19.69%
IDR
Idaho Strategic Resources
14.37
4.27
42.28%

Contango ORE Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Contango ORE Advocates for Alaskan Economy in DC
Positive
Apr 30, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Contango ORE, Inc. announced its participation in the ‘Alaska On The Hill’ event in Washington DC, advocating for the Alaskan economy and discussing its mining projects. The company is on track to produce 60,000 ounces of gold from the Manh Choh mine in 2025 and plans to release its Johnson Tract PEA and Q1-2025 financials soon, highlighting a promising period for mining in Alaska.

Spark’s Take on CTGO Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CTGO is a Neutral.

Contango ORE’s stock score reflects the company’s challenging financial performance, characterized by high leverage and ongoing losses typical of its development stage in the mining industry. However, strong technical momentum and positive outcomes from recent earnings calls and corporate events suggest potential for future growth and stabilization. Valuation concerns persist due to the lack of profitability.

To see Spark’s full report on CTGO stock, click here.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Contango ORE Announces $9 Million Cash Distribution
Positive
Apr 24, 2025

On April 24, 2025, Contango ORE, Inc. announced a $9 million cash distribution from the Peak Gold JV, marking a total of $33 million in distributions from gold sales in 2025. The company completed its first production campaign, yielding approximately 20,000 ounces of gold, and plans to start the second campaign in mid-May. Contango’s operations at Manh Choh are on track, with an expected production of 60,000 ounces of gold for 2025 at an all-in-sustaining cost of $1,625 per ounce. The company has also reduced its credit facility balance and hedge contract obligations, and anticipates releasing its Q1-2025 financial results on May 14, 2025.

Spark’s Take on CTGO Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, CTGO is a Neutral.

Contango ORE’s stock score reflects a challenging financial performance characteristic of its development stage, with high leverage and operational losses. However, strong technical momentum, positive earnings call outcomes, and favorable corporate events suggest potential for future growth and stabilization. Valuation remains a concern due to the lack of profitability.

To see Spark’s full report on CTGO stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Contango ORE Reports $24 Million Cash Distribution
Positive
Mar 31, 2025

On March 31, 2025, Contango ORE, Inc. announced that it received $24 million in cash distributions from the Peak Gold JV in the first quarter of 2025. This includes $9 million from 2024 production profits and $15 million from the first half of Campaign #1 for 2025. The company reported that the Peak Gold JV processed 323,000 tons of ore, recovering approximately 65,000 ounces of gold, with Contango’s share being 19,500 ounces, surpassing initial guidance. The company expects further cash distributions and continues to advance its projects and improve operations.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Contango ORE Reports 2024 Financial Results and Progress
Neutral
Mar 17, 2025

On March 17, 2025, Contango ORE, Inc. announced its financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, reporting a net loss of $38.0 million despite achieving gold production that exceeded guidance at the Manh Choh mine. The company’s financial position improved with a cash position of $20.1 million, and significant progress was made in debt reduction and hedge contract settlements. The company is focused on furthering its Johnson Tract project with ongoing drilling and permitting efforts, while maintaining strong cash flow through linked gold production to spot prices.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Contango ORE Highlights Strong Manh Choh Project Performance
Positive
Mar 3, 2025

On February 28, 2025, Contango ORE released a corporate presentation detailing its financial measures and operations, including its joint venture with Kinross Gold Corporation. The presentation highlighted the company’s progress in its Manh Choh project, which began commercial production in July 2024, exceeding production guidance by 30% and generating strong cash flows. The company also outlined its future production targets and financial expectations, positioning itself well within the industry.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Contango ORE Amends Credit Facility for Flexibility
Positive
Feb 18, 2025

On February 18, 2025, Contango ORE, Inc. announced amendments to its credit facility to defer $10.6 million in principal repayments and extend the maturity date to mid-2027. This adjustment is expected to align better with their extended ore haul plan, allowing for more flexibility in debt repayment and exposure to potential gold price increases. Contango also commenced its first gold production campaign of the year on February 7, 2025, with anticipated production of 15,000 to 18,000 ounces of gold. These developments are poised to strengthen the company’s financial standing and operational efficiency, potentially increasing cash flows significantly if gold prices remain high.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.