Brazil Potash Corp. (GRO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $129.15M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 643.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 36
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 53,367,090
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 604,693
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 643,546
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -18.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.68
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.32
• 1Y Price Target: $3.25
• Price Target Upside: 23.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▲(14.07% Upside)

The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance (no revenue, widening losses, and rising cash burn) despite low leverage. Technicals are supportive in trend but look overbought, and valuation signals are limited by negative earnings and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / balance sheet flexibility

Very low debt reduces financial risk for a multi-year development company, preserving capacity to raise project financing on better terms. This structural strength supports prolonged permitting and engineering cycles without large interest burdens, increasing optionality to secure offtake and construction financing.

Strategic focus on Brazilian potash supply

Targeting domestic potash supply in Brazil aligns with a durable agrochemical demand base. Localizing supply can reduce import dependence and capture structural fertilizer demand growth, supporting long-term commercial opportunity if the project reaches production and secures offtake agreements.

Active project development (permitting & engineering)

Progress through permitting and engineering are fundamental de-risking steps for resource projects. Successful completion materially increases project value and bankability, improving chances to obtain construction finance and commercial contracts over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Pre-revenue operations

A multi-year pre‑revenue profile means the business lacks tested commercial economics and is dependent on financing to progress. Without production or sales, investors and lenders have limited visibility into long-term margins, pricing power, and sustainable cash generation.

Widening net losses

Materially higher annual losses indicate rising development spend and an increasing run-rate. Persistently widening losses accelerate equity erosion, elevate funding needs, and raise dilution risk, stressing the company's ability to self-fund later-stage milestones without external capital.

Negative operating and free cash flow

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow creates a structural reliance on external capital to advance development. Ongoing cash burn increases financing frequency and cost, risks project delays if funding is constrained, and can pressure long-term shareholder value through dilution.

Brazil Potash Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Brazil Potash Corp. engages in the exploration and development of potash properties in Brazil. It holds interest in the Autazes Project located in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Brazil Potash Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pre-revenue profile with no revenue reported across 2021–2024, materially widening net loss in 2024 (~$46.4M vs. ~$13.2M in 2023), and worsening free cash flow burn in 2024 (~-$15.1M). The main offset is a lightly levered balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.00), but equity has declined and ROE is deeply negative.

Income Statement

The company reports no revenue across 2021–2024, which limits visibility into commercial traction and makes profitability structurally weak at this stage. Losses have widened materially in 2024 (net loss of ~$46.4M vs. ~$13.2M in 2023), signaling a higher spend/run-rate. A positive is that losses are not driven by leverage (interest burden appears minimal given very low debt), but overall earnings quality and margin profile are unfavorable given the absence of sales.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is lightly levered, with very low debt relative to equity in 2024 (debt-to-equity ~0.00), which reduces financial risk and provides flexibility. However, equity has declined from ~$176.4M (2022) to ~$135.4M (2024), consistent with ongoing losses, and returns on equity are meaningfully negative (2024 ROE ~-34%). Overall: strong capitalization and low leverage, offset by continued value dilution from persistent losses.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak, with operating cash flow negative each year (about -$11.3M in 2024 vs. -$8.2M in 2023) and free cash flow also negative (about -$15.1M in 2024). Free cash flow deterioration in 2024 implies a higher cash burn profile. A modest positive is that free cash flow is less negative than net income (free cash flow to net income > 1), but the business still depends on external funding until operations scale.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2019
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-66.73M	-46.65M	-13.36M	-32.66M	-4.43M	-15.71M
Net Income	-66.61M	-46.41M	-13.21M	-32.62M	-5.05M	-16.34M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	211.01M	141.06M	175.57M	180.51M	165.37M	171.12M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.99M	18.86M	3.23M	16.00M	19.13M	1.78M
Total Debt	911.99K	605.61K	0.00	0.00	14.07K	1.80M
Total Liabilities	6.39M	5.64M	5.18M	4.12M	4.58M	11.03M
Stockholders Equity	204.62M	135.42M	170.39M	176.40M	160.79M	160.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-27.32M	-15.06M	-12.13M	-11.95M	-10.78M	-2.70M
Operating Cash Flow	-20.93M	-11.28M	-8.20M	-8.22M	-9.61M	-2.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-7.70M	-3.77M	-3.64M	-3.47M	-1.16M	-4.67M
Financing Cash Flow	34.49M	31.61M	2.50M	8.35M	25.88M	6.31M

Brazil Potash Corp. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
NEXA	61 Neutral	$1.68B	-108.00	-1.64%	1.14%	7.92%	91.83%
GSM	55 Neutral	$910.73M	-6.96	-16.00%	1.17%	-16.89%	-403.77%
CMP	54 Neutral	$1.05B	-13.71	-28.98%	―	11.32%	61.60%
GRO	48 Neutral	$129.15M	-1.10	―	―	―	―
LZM	44 Neutral	$443.22M	―	―	―	―	―
IONR	44 Neutral	$308.79M	―	-4.25%	―	―	-10.45%