GPGI (GPGI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.50B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.38M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: -61.71%
• EPS Growth: -622.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 289,415,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,022,102
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,376,512
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): -3.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.33
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.67
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 39.64
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 78.37
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -24.66
• 1Y Price Target: $23.50
• Price Target Upside: 4.68% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.06
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $508.90M

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $25.00 ▲(11.36% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/03/26

The score is held back primarily by weak recent financial performance (sharp TTM revenue decline and significant losses) despite supportive gross margins and still-positive cash flow. Technicals are a meaningful positive with a clear uptrend and constructive momentum. The latest earnings call and guidance are notably strong and help offset fundamentals, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings.

Positive Factors

High Gross Margins / Strong Product Economics

Sustained gross margins near 50–59% indicate resilient unit economics for premium metal and specialty cards. Durable margin strength provides a cushion through volume cycles, supporting long-term profitability recovery potential as issuance volumes normalize and fixed-cost absorption improves.

Substantial Cash Balance and Debt Reduction

A large cash reserve combined with meaningful debt paydown materially improves liquidity and financial flexibility. This healthier balance sheet supports investments, acquisitions, and continued operations through demand variability, reducing refinancing risk over the medium term.

Strategic Acquisition Diversifies Capabilities

The Husky combination expands capabilities into injection molding and broader manufacturing, diversifying revenue streams beyond premium card issuance. Structural diversification and operational synergies can raise long-term growth ceilings and reduce reliance on single-product issuance cycles.

Negative Factors

Sharp Revenue and Profitability Decline

A large, persistent decline in revenue and a swing to substantial net losses undermine operating leverage and long-term reinvestment capacity. If volume declines persist, recovery will depend on regaining program wins or higher-margin product mix, making near-term earnings recovery uncertain.

Weakened Free Cash Flow Trajectory

Although cash generation remains positive, a >60% decline in free cash flow signals deteriorating cash conversion from operations. A weakened FCF trend reduces capacity for capex, debt reduction, or M&A funding and elevates sensitivity to further revenue or margin shocks.

Historic Capital-Structure Risk and Past Negative Equity

Prior negative equity and sizable past debt create a track record of capital-structure volatility; recent improvements may be fragile if losses recur. Persistent or renewed operating losses could force dilutive financing or constrain strategic flexibility over the medium term.

GPGI Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GPGI, Inc. operates as a diversified, multi-industry compounder comprised of companies in various industries. The company engages in acquiring, owning, and scaling high-quality businesses. The company's business segments include CompoSecure, a metal payment cards, security, and authentication solutions provider; and Husky Technologies, a manufacturer of injection molding machines and systems. The company was formerly known as CompoSecure, Inc. and changed its name to GPGI, Inc. in January 2026. GPGI, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Somerset, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

CompoSecure generates revenue through the manufacture and sale of secure payment card products, which include EMV-compliant cards and other customized card solutions. Their revenue model is primarily based on product sales to banks and financial institutions. Key revenue streams include one-time sales of card production, personalization services, and ongoing contracts for card issuance and management. Additionally, strategic partnerships with major payment networks and technology providers enhance their market reach and enable them to offer integrated solutions, contributing to their overall earnings. The company may also benefit from recurring revenue through maintenance contracts and service agreements associated with card management systems.

GPGI Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals. Income statement is weak (TTM revenue down ~40% and a swing to a large net loss), but gross margin has stayed solid (~50–58%). Balance sheet looks improved in the latest period (no debt and positive equity), though history includes negative equity. Cash flow is a relative strength with positive operating cash flow/free cash flow, but TTM free cash flow fell materially (over 60%), showing weakening cash conversion.

Income Statement

Profitability and growth have deteriorated sharply in the most recent period. Revenue in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) fell ~40% versus the prior year, and the company swung to a very large net loss with deeply negative net margin. Offsetting this, gross margin has remained relatively stable around ~50–58% over time, indicating the core product economics can be solid, but recent operating performance and bottom-line volatility meaningfully weaken the outlook.

Balance Sheet

Leverage risk appears improved in the latest period, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) showing no debt and positive equity, which is a notable shift from prior years where equity was negative and debt was substantial. That said, the historical pattern of negative equity and inconsistent returns signals a higher-risk capital structure track record, and the recent improvement may prove less durable if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been a relative strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive, and cash flow has generally been strong versus reported earnings (losses), suggesting non-cash charges and/or working-capital dynamics are helping cash results. The main weakness is trajectory—TTM free cash flow is down materially (over 60% decline) from the prior annual period, indicating weakening cash conversion alongside the revenue drop.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	160.68M	420.57M	390.63M	378.48M	267.95M	260.59M
Gross Profit	81.28M	219.23M	209.08M	219.64M	144.85M	132.63M
EBITDA	-258.27M	-50.52M	154.60M	167.29M	104.91M	93.93M
Net Income	-227.69M	-53.72M	19.24M	18.66M	3.15M	77.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	505.48M	478.23M	201.04M	162.94M	131.35M	81.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	127.36M	77.46M	41.22M	13.64M	21.94M	13.42M
Total Debt	0.00	205.53M	350.86M	375.37M	398.07M	255.89M
Total Liabilities	353.01M	621.68M	406.81M	454.94M	539.00M	273.91M
Stockholders Equity	152.47M	-143.45M	-802.36M	-892.23M	-1.02B	-192.55M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	24.02M	120.04M	93.37M	83.73M	73.03M	79.56M
Operating Cash Flow	26.31M	127.45M	104.31M	92.78M	77.78M	87.06M
Investing Cash Flow	-65.12M	-9.95M	-10.94M	-9.05M	-4.75M	-7.50M
Financing Cash Flow	113.50M	-81.26M	-65.79M	-92.03M	-64.51M	-92.87M

GPGI Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 22.45
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPGI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.61, above the 50-day MA of 22.45, and above the 200-day MA of 18.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GPGI.

GPGI Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AZZ	79 Outperform	$4.06B	12.78	27.38%	0.67%	1.55%	701.41%
PRLB	72 Outperform	$1.48B	70.75	3.16%	―	2.82%	-34.29%
WOR	70 Outperform	$2.78B	26.38	11.31%	1.27%	7.43%	148.83%
IIIN	68 Neutral	$723.10M	15.34	13.77%	3.49%	22.39%	112.75%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MEC	63 Neutral	$426.69M	36.55	5.06%	―	-12.38%	-0.71%
GPGI	60 Neutral	$6.50B	-9.75	―	―	-61.71%	-622.81%

GPGI Corporate Events

GPGI Declares Quarterly Dividend While Prioritizing Debt Reduction

On February 3, 2026, GPGI, Inc. announced that its board had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.0025 per share on its Class A common stock, representing an annual distribution of about $2.9 million, payable on February 27, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2026. The company emphasized that, despite the dividend, its capital allocation priorities remain centered on paying down debt and pursuing accretive acquisitions aligned with its investment criteria, underscoring a continued focus on disciplined growth and balance sheet strength for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GPGI) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GPGI stock, see the GPGI Stock Forecast page.