GPGI (GPGI)
NYSE:GPGI
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GPGI
(NYSE:GPGI)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
▲(1.10% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
The score is held down primarily by weak recent financial performance (sharp revenue decline, large losses, and negative cash flow) and bearish technicals. These are partly offset by a more optimistic earnings outlook and guidance indicating improving growth, margins, and free cash flow, with modest support from valuation (dividend) and generally positive recent corporate updates.
Positive Factors
High recurring revenue at CompoSecure
A 75% recurring revenue mix and multi-year shipment history create predictable demand and revenue visibility. Durable replacement cycles support stable margins and cash conversion, reducing sensitivity to new-system volatility and underpinning multi-quarter organic growth and planning.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue decline and operating losses
A severe revenue collapse and large net loss indicate fragile scale and operational leverage risks. Until top-line stability is restored, profitability and margin targets face execution risk, reducing the durability of recovery plans and increasing sensitivity to demand or execution setbacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High recurring revenue at CompoSecure
A 75% recurring revenue mix and multi-year shipment history create predictable demand and revenue visibility. Durable replacement cycles support stable margins and cash conversion, reducing sensitivity to new-system volatility and underpinning multi-quarter organic growth and planning.
Read all positive factors
GPGI (GPGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.01B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.14M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.33
Revenue Growth-61.71%
EPS Growth-622.81%
CountryUS
Employees1,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryManufacturing - Metal Fabrication
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding289,642,580
10 Day Avg. Volume8,888,332
30 Day Avg. Volume5,138,158
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.56
Price to Book (P/B)10.02
Price to Sales (P/S)40.74
P/FCF Ratio-104.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue75.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit157.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-20.49
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.00Price Target Upside44.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$510.80M
GPGI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GPGI, Inc. operates as a diversified, multi-industry compounder comprised of companies in various industries. The company engages in acquiring, owning, and scaling high-quality businesses. The company's business segments include CompoSecure, a met...
GPGI Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
GPGI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational and financial momentum at CompoSecure (notable revenue, margin and EBITDA expansion), durable recurring revenue streams, and a clear platform strategy with ROS deployment. Husky delivered revenue growth and has a large installed base and aftermarket opportunity, but experienced meaningful margin compression in 2025 from mix, investment spend and ramp inefficiencies that are expected to be transient. Management provided constructive FY2026 pro forma guidance with mid-single to double-digit growth cadence and explicit leverage/CAPEX discipline. On balance, positive early results at CompoSecure, clear turnaround/optimization plans for Husky, and confident guidance and capital allocation priorities outweigh the near-term Husky headwinds and structural accounting complexities.Positive Updates
Strong CompoSecure Top-Line Growth
CompoSecure non-GAAP net sales of $462.1M for fiscal 2025, up ~9.9% year-over-year; Q4 net sales of $117.7M, up ~17% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Husky Margin Compression in 2025
Husky experienced margin compression in Q4 and full-year 2025 driven by a transient product mix shift toward higher new-system sales (lower blended margins), strategic investments (sales force, service labor, prototyping) and variable cost inefficiencies while ramping throughput.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong CompoSecure Top-Line Growth
CompoSecure non-GAAP net sales of $462.1M for fiscal 2025, up ~9.9% year-over-year; Q4 net sales of $117.7M, up ~17% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GPGI guided pro forma FY2026 non‑GAAP net sales of $2.18–$2.23 billion, pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $620–$650 million and pro forma adjusted free cash flow of $325–$375 million (midpoints implying ~8.5% net‑sales growth, ~17% adjusted‑EBITDA growth and an ~29% adjusted‑EBITDA margin); management expects growth and margin expansion to accelerate in H2 (H1: mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and relatively flat margins, with Husky margin headwinds in Q1) and H2 to reach double‑digit year‑over‑year growth, targets total leverage below 3x, and reiterated longer‑term goals of mid‑ to high‑single‑digit organic growth, >100 bps of annual margin expansion, double‑digit+ annual EBITDA growth and 90–100% free‑cash‑flow conversion.GPGI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 59.82M | 420.57M | 390.63M | 378.48M | 267.95M |
| Gross Profit | 28.75M | 219.23M | 209.08M | 219.64M | 144.85M |
| EBITDA | -12.11M | -50.52M | 154.60M | 167.29M | 104.91M |
| Net Income | -136.00M | -53.72M | 19.24M | 18.66M | 3.15M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 517.27M | 478.23M | 201.04M | 162.94M | 131.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 114.64M | 77.46M | 41.22M | 13.64M | 21.94M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 205.53M | 350.86M | 375.37M | 398.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 274.13M | 621.68M | 406.81M | 454.94M | 539.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 243.14M | -143.45M | -802.36M | -892.23M | -1.02B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -23.27M | 120.04M | 93.37M | 83.73M | 73.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -22.88M | 127.45M | 104.31M | 92.78M | 77.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -60.69M | -9.95M | -10.94M | -9.05M | -4.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 120.75M | -81.26M | -65.79M | -92.03M | -64.51M |
GPGI Technical Analysis
Negative
17.31
Price Trends
22.04
Negative
21.04
Negative
19.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.42
Positive
31.26
Neutral
39.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.99, below the 50-day MA of 22.04, and below the 200-day MA of 19.28, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPGI.
GPGI Risk Analysis
GPGI disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GPGI reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GPGI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $3.68B | 19.10 | 26.34% | 0.67% | 1.55% | 701.41% | |
72 Outperform | $1.38B | 50.09 | 3.20% | ― | 2.82% | -34.29% | |
70 Outperform | $2.52B | 15.14 | 11.58% | 1.27% | 7.43% | 148.83% | |
68 Neutral | $649.20M | 20.81 | 13.31% | 3.49% | 22.39% | 112.75% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $366.54M | -47.25 | -3.30% | ― | -12.38% | -0.71% | |
50 Neutral | $5.01B | -17.92 | -269.41% | ― | -61.71% | -622.81% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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GPGI Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
GPGI Showcases Strategy at J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
GPGI, Inc. announced that Executive Chairman Dave Cote participated in a fireside chat at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference in Washington, D.C., on Monday, March 16, 2026, at 1:45 p.m. EDT. The company made the session accessible to investors...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
GPGI Declares Quarterly Dividend While Prioritizing Debt Reduction
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
On February 3, 2026, GPGI, Inc. announced that its board had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.0025 per share on its Class A common stock, representing an annual distribution of about $2.9 million, payable on February 27, 2026, to sharehold...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.