Gpgi, Inc. (GPGI)
NYSE:GPGI
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GPGI
(NYSE:GPGI)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
▼(-12.38% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/13/26
The score is held down primarily by sharply deteriorated recent financial performance (TTM $0 revenue, very large losses, and negative free cash flow) and a bearish longer-term technical trend (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting somewhat, management’s latest call provided sizable FY2026 pro forma profitability and free-cash-flow targets, supported by strong CompoSecure execution and refinancing benefits, but uncertainty and weakness at Husky keep the outlook mixed. Valuation is only modestly supported by the dividend, while a negative P/E reflects ongoing losses.
Positive Factors
CompoSecure operational gains (ROS)
Resolute Operating System (ROS) drove step-change manufacturing yields, 25.6% sales growth and ~300bps margin expansion at CompoSecure. Those operational improvements and repeatable program wins create durable margin cushioning and scalable operating leverage across the portfolio.
Negative Factors
Severe recent operating collapse (TTM)
Reported TTM revenue at $0 alongside a ~-$392.5M net loss and ~-$78M free cash flow indicates a pronounced disruption in core sales and profitability. Such a scale of GAAP deterioration erodes earnings quality, impairs forecast reliability and raises long-term cash generation risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
CompoSecure operational gains (ROS)
Resolute Operating System (ROS) drove step-change manufacturing yields, 25.6% sales growth and ~300bps margin expansion at CompoSecure. Those operational improvements and repeatable program wins create durable margin cushioning and scalable operating leverage across the portfolio.
Read all positive factors
GPGI Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
GPGI (GPGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.37B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth-100.00%
EPS Growth-140.99%
CountryUS
Employees1,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryManufacturing - Metal Fabrication
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.35
Shares Outstanding289,861,450
10 Day Avg. Volume2,127,834
30 Day Avg. Volume2,965,408
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.56
Price to Book (P/B)10.02
Price to Sales (P/S)40.74
P/FCF Ratio-104.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-2.04M
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-8.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.00Price Target Upside16.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.24B
GPGI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GPGI, Inc. operates as a diversified holding company, focusing on the strategic acquisition, ownership, and growth of high-quality enterprises across various sectors. Its principal business units include CompoSecure, a specialist in metal payment ...
GPGI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed outlook: CompoSecure delivered a very strong, record quarter with significant revenue and margin expansion driven by ROS and new program wins, stable adjusted free cash flow and a stronger balance sheet from refinancing. Offsetting these positives are meaningful, macro-driven headwinds at Husky (orders down ~16% late in the quarter, EBITDA down ~40%, margin compression of ~770 bps), resin-price volatility and geopolitical/tariff uncertainty that pushed ~>$20M of revenue into future periods. Management emphasized ROS rollout, continued R&D investment and confidence in recovery, but the sizable Husky weakness materially impacted consolidated results, prompting wider guidance ranges.Positive Updates
CompoSecure Record Quarter
CompoSecure delivered pro forma net sales of $130.4M (+25.6% YoY) and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $47.6M (+36.8% YoY); adjusted EBITDA margin expanded ~300 bps to 36.5%. New program wins include American Express Graphite, X Money, Robinhood Platinum, Revolut Audi F1, Fold, Kraken and MetaMask US. Management credits 18 months of Resolute Operating System (ROS) implementation for step-change manufacturing yields and operational efficiencies.
Negative Updates
Husky Revenue and Profitability Weakness
Husky reported pro forma adjusted net sales of $290.8M (down ~5% YoY) and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $38.2M (down ~40% YoY). Pro forma adjusted EBITDA margin contracted to ~13.2%, an erosion of ~770 basis points YoY. Management attributed part of the shortfall to late-quarter customer delays that pushed >$20M of revenue into future periods.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
CompoSecure Record Quarter
CompoSecure delivered pro forma net sales of $130.4M (+25.6% YoY) and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $47.6M (+36.8% YoY); adjusted EBITDA margin expanded ~300 bps to 36.5%. New program wins include American Express Graphite, X Money, Robinhood Platinum, Revolut Audi F1, Fold, Kraken and MetaMask US. Management credits 18 months of Resolute Operating System (ROS) implementation for step-change manufacturing yields and operational efficiencies.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GPGI issued revised guidance: for 2Q FY‑2026 it expects net sales of $425–$475 million, pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $105–$120 million and pro forma adjusted EBITDA margins of 24.7%–25.3%; for FY‑2026 it now expects pro forma net sales of $1.95–$2.10 billion, pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $550–$610 million and pro forma adjusted EBITDA margins of 28.2%–29.0%, with pro forma adjusted free cash flow of $275–$325 million and an anticipated year‑end total leverage of ~3.0x; management noted Q1 generated roughly $29 million of adjusted free cash flow and that approximately $20 million of revenue was deferred late in the quarter (≈$6M delivery delays, ≈$5M shipment/logistics, ≈$4M payment delays), driving the wider guidance range.GPGI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 0.00 | 59.82M | 420.57M | 390.63M | 378.48M | 267.95M |
| Gross Profit | -2.00K | 28.75M | 219.23M | 209.08M | 219.64M | 144.85M |
| EBITDA | -455.40M | -93.59M | -50.52M | 154.60M | 167.29M | 104.91M |
| Net Income | -392.50M | -136.00M | -53.72M | 19.24M | 18.66M | 3.15M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.41B | 517.27M | 478.23M | 201.04M | 162.94M | 131.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.50M | 114.64M | 77.46M | 41.22M | 13.64M | 21.94M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 205.53M | 350.86M | 375.37M | 398.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 297.80M | 274.13M | 621.68M | 406.81M | 454.94M | 539.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.12B | 243.14M | -143.45M | -802.36M | -892.23M | -1.02B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -78.09M | -23.27M | 120.04M | 93.37M | 83.73M | 73.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -78.48M | -22.88M | 127.45M | 104.31M | 92.78M | 77.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.02B | -60.69M | -9.95M | -10.94M | -9.05M | -4.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.09B | 120.75M | -81.26M | -65.79M | -92.03M | -64.51M |
GPGI Technical Analysis
Neutral
17.12
Price Trends
13.81
Positive
17.03
Negative
18.79
Negative
Market Momentum
0.31
Negative
60.09
Neutral
85.18
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPGI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 17.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.91, above the 50-day MA of 13.81, and below the 200-day MA of 18.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GPGI.
GPGI Risk Analysis
GPGI disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GPGI reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GPGI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $4.70B | 14.81 | 24.53% | 0.67% | 4.58% | 556.92% | |
75 Outperform | $1.92B | 74.71 | 3.84% | ― | 9.43% | 80.11% | |
69 Neutral | $2.78B | 17.66 | 11.58% | 1.27% | 19.72% | 63.76% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $593.30M | 13.94 | 11.72% | 3.49% | 20.94% | 88.74% | |
58 Neutral | $943.28M | -46.80 | -6.76% | ― | -0.04% | -172.38% | |
46 Neutral | $4.37B | -4.50 | -46.10% | ― | -100.00% | -140.99% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GPGI
GPGI
15.06
0.90
6.32%
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PRLB
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WOR
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56.35
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MEC
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128.54%
GPGI Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
GPGI Shareholders Approve Directors, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
GPGI, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 11, 2026, where shareholders owning 262.2 million of 289.9 million eligible Class A shares were represented, ensuring a quorum. Investors voted on the election of four Class II direct...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
GPGI Completes Legal Reincorporation from Delaware to Nevada
Neutral
Jun 5, 2026
On June 5, 2026, GPGI, Inc. completed a legal reincorporation from Delaware to Nevada, with the change becoming effective at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time and shifting its governing law, charter, and bylaws to those of Nevada without altering its physica...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
GPGI Shareholders Approve Reincorporation from Delaware to Nevada
Neutral
Jun 4, 2026
GPGI, Inc., a Delaware corporation, convened a special meeting of stockholders on June 4, 2026, to consider a proposal to reincorporate the company from Delaware to Nevada by conversion. The meeting was held virtually, with eligibility to vote bas...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
GPGI Posts Mixed Q1 2026 Results, Maintains Outlook
Neutral
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, GPGI reported first-quarter 2026 results showing pro forma adjusted net sales of $421.2 million, a 3% increase from a year earlier, but a pro forma adjusted EBITDA decline of 16% to $82.1 million and a GAAP net loss of $235 million...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.