GPGI (GPGI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $7.09B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.69M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.24
• Revenue Growth: -61.71%
• EPS Growth: -622.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Manufacturing - Metal Fabrication
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 289,415,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,938,825
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,689,969
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): -3.91
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.33
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.67
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 42.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 83.99
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -35.66
• 1Y Price Target: $26.00
• Price Target Upside: 8.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $27.00 ▲(12.36% Upside)

The score reflects a tug-of-war between weak/volatile financial performance (sharp TTM revenue decline and losses) and strong forward momentum from the earnings call (raised 2025 outlook, upbeat 2026 guidance, and improved margins). Technicals are supportive but look overextended, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings and no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

High and improving gross margins

Sustained high gross margins (near 50–59%) indicate strong unit economics for premium card products and services. Durable margin structure supports pricing power, funds reinvestment and cushions operating volatility, improving long-term cash conversion even if volumes fluctuate.

Positive operating and free cash flow

Positive operating and free cash flow despite reported losses shows the business generates real cash from operations. That cash provides flexibility to fund capex, pay down debt, and support strategic investments, improving resilience over multiple quarters even if earnings are volatile.

Husky merger creates diversified recurring-revenue platform

The Husky combination materially diversifies revenue mix into engineered equipment with high recurring revenue, adds scale and cross-segment cashflow, and positions the firm as a permanent-capital platform—structural changes that should raise resilience and growth optionality over years.

Negative Factors

Sharp revenue decline and large net loss

A steep multi-quarter revenue drop and large net loss signal weakened demand or program volatility. Persistent top-line contraction undermines margin leverage and capital buffers, making sustained profitability and reinvestment harder without clear, durable revenue recovery across programs.

Elevated post-merger indebtedness and covenant constraints

The sizable new secured notes and term facilities materially increase leverage and introduce covenant disciplines. Higher interest and mandatory amortization reduce free cash flow available for growth or buybacks, making financial policy and execution more sensitive to operational performance over the medium term.

Deal-related governance, dilution and litigation risk

Legal challenges over the proxy and large share issuances/resale registrations introduce governance and dilution risks. These can distract management, increase transaction costs, and broaden share float, potentially weakening alignment with long-term investors and raising execution risk during integration.

GPGI Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GPGI, Inc. operates as a diversified, multi-industry compounder comprised of companies in various industries. The company engages in acquiring, owning, and scaling high-quality businesses. The company's business segments include CompoSecure, a metal payment cards, security, and authentication solutions provider; and Husky Technologies, a manufacturer of injection molding machines and systems. The company was formerly known as CompoSecure, Inc. and changed its name to GPGI, Inc. in January 2026. GPGI, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Somerset, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

CompoSecure generates revenue through the manufacture and sale of secure payment card products, which include EMV-compliant cards and other customized card solutions. Their revenue model is primarily based on product sales to banks and financial institutions. Key revenue streams include one-time sales of card production, personalization services, and ongoing contracts for card issuance and management. Additionally, strategic partnerships with major payment networks and technology providers enhance their market reach and enable them to offer integrated solutions, contributing to their overall earnings. The company may also benefit from recurring revenue through maintenance contracts and service agreements associated with card management systems.

GPGI Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed and recently volatile: the income statement is weak (sharp TTM revenue decline and large net loss), partially offset by historically strong gross margins and still-positive operating/free cash flow. The balance sheet looks cleaner in the latest snapshot (no debt/positive equity) but the track record of negative equity and inconsistency raises durability risk if losses persist.

Income Statement

Profitability and growth have deteriorated sharply in the most recent period. Revenue in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) fell ~40% versus the prior year, and the company swung to a very large net loss with deeply negative net margin. Offsetting this, gross margin has remained relatively stable around ~50–58% over time, indicating the core product economics can be solid, but recent operating performance and bottom-line volatility meaningfully weaken the outlook.

Balance Sheet

Leverage risk appears improved in the latest period, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) showing no debt and positive equity, which is a notable shift from prior years where equity was negative and debt was substantial. That said, the historical pattern of negative equity and inconsistent returns signals a higher-risk capital structure track record, and the recent improvement may prove less durable if losses persist.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has been a relative strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive, and cash flow has generally been strong versus reported earnings (losses), suggesting non-cash charges and/or working-capital dynamics are helping cash results. The main weakness is trajectory—TTM free cash flow is down materially (over 60% decline) from the prior annual period, indicating weakening cash conversion alongside the revenue drop.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	160.68M	420.57M	390.63M	378.48M	267.95M	260.59M
Gross Profit	81.28M	219.23M	209.08M	219.64M	144.85M	132.63M
EBITDA	-191.47M	-50.52M	154.60M	167.29M	104.91M	93.93M
Net Income	-201.56M	-53.72M	19.24M	18.66M	3.15M	77.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	505.48M	478.23M	201.04M	162.94M	131.35M	81.36M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	127.36M	77.46M	41.22M	13.64M	21.94M	13.42M
Total Debt	0.00	205.53M	350.86M	375.37M	398.07M	255.89M
Total Liabilities	353.01M	621.68M	406.81M	454.94M	539.00M	273.91M
Stockholders Equity	152.47M	-143.45M	-802.36M	-892.23M	-1.02B	-192.55M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	23.99M	120.04M	93.37M	83.73M	73.03M	79.56M
Operating Cash Flow	26.27M	127.45M	104.31M	92.78M	77.78M	87.06M
Investing Cash Flow	-65.12M	-9.95M	-10.94M	-9.05M	-4.75M	-7.50M
Financing Cash Flow	118.24M	-81.26M	-65.79M	-92.03M	-64.51M	-92.87M

GPGI Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.03
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPGI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.55, above the 50-day MA of 20.79, and above the 200-day MA of 17.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPGI.

GPGI Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AZZ	80 Outperform	$3.67B	11.55	27.38%	0.67%	1.55%	701.41%
PRLB	70 Outperform	$1.24B	84.64	2.21%	―	2.82%	-34.29%
WOR	70 Outperform	$2.64B	25.10	11.31%	1.27%	7.43%	148.83%
IIIN	66 Neutral	$627.09M	13.31	13.77%	3.49%	22.39%	112.75%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
MEC	63 Neutral	$373.86M	32.95	5.06%	―	-12.38%	-0.71%
GPGI	60 Neutral	$7.09B	-10.44	―	―	-61.71%	-622.81%

GPGI Corporate Events

CompoSecure Files Prospectus to Enable Large Share Resale

On January 14, 2026, CompoSecure, Inc. filed a prospectus supplement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to a previously filed shelf registration statement to facilitate the resale of 161,034,417 shares of its common stock by certain existing stockholders. The filing, which incorporates a legal opinion from Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP, effectively provides a registered pathway for these shareholders to sell their holdings, potentially increasing the stock’s trading float without directly raising new capital for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMPO) stock is a Hold with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CompoSecure stock, see the CMPO Stock Forecast page.

CompoSecure Refinances Debt Following Husky Combination Completion

On January 14, 2026, CompoSecure announced it had refinanced approximately $2.1 billion of debt following the completion of its combination with Husky Technologies Limited on January 13, 2026, using a mix of $900 million of new 5.625% senior secured notes due 2033, a new $1.2 billion term loan facility maturing in 2033, and $400 million in revolving credit commitments maturing in 2031. The proceeds from these transactions, together with borrowings under the new senior credit facilities, were used to refinance Husky’s existing indebtedness under its prior credit agreement, pay related fees and expenses, and redeem in full Husky’s previously outstanding $1.0 billion of 9.000% senior secured notes for approximately $1.04 billion, after which those notes were no longer outstanding. The new notes and credit facilities, all senior secured and subject to customary covenants and leverage-based conditions, extend CompoSecure’s debt maturities, replace higher-cost legacy Husky financing, and provide significant revolving capacity, improving the combined company’s capital structure and flexibility while imposing leverage and covenant disciplines that will shape its financial policy going forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMPO) stock is a Hold with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CompoSecure stock, see the CMPO Stock Forecast page.

CompoSecure Completes Husky Merger and Rebrands as GPGI

On January 12, 2026, CompoSecure completed its business combination with Husky Technologies, creating a $7.4 billion diversified platform with roughly 70% recurring revenues, and rebranded its corporate entity as GPGI, Inc., which will report through two segments, CompoSecure and Husky, while its shares are expected to begin trading on the NYSE under the ticker GPGI on January 23, 2026. In connection with the transaction, the company overhauled its capital structure and governance by issuing more than 161 million new common shares to Platinum-affiliated parties and PIPE investors in private placements, assuming and moving to refinance over $3.1 billion of Husky debt while repaying and terminating a $330 million legacy credit facility, granting Platinum’s affiliate PE Titan CS Holdings board nomination and registration rights, appointing Platinum executives Louis Samson and Delara Zarrabi to the board, and installing a long-term management agreement under which Resolute Holdings will manage the Husky business for a fee tied to adjusted EBITDA, collectively cementing GPGI’s status as a permanent capital compounder backed by institutional sponsors and the David Cote family’s retained $1 billion equity stake.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMPO) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CompoSecure stock, see the CMPO Stock Forecast page.

CompoSecure Faces Legal Challenges Over Proxy Statement

On November 2, 2025, CompoSecure, Inc. entered into a Share Purchase Agreement with Husky Technologies Limited and other parties, involving a combination valued at approximately $3.953 billion in cash and shares. Concurrently, CompoSecure agreed to a private placement of shares for about $1.96 billion. The company has faced legal challenges from shareholders alleging incomplete and misleading information in its Proxy Statement, which could affect the approval of the transaction at the upcoming special meeting on December 23, 2025. To mitigate risks and costs of litigation, CompoSecure has decided to voluntarily supplement the Proxy Statement, although it denies any wrongdoing.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMPO) stock is a Hold with a $21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CompoSecure stock, see the CMPO Stock Forecast page.

CompoSecure Announces Share Purchase Agreement with Husky

On November 2, 2025, CompoSecure, Inc. announced a Share Purchase Agreement with Husky Technologies Limited and its affiliates, valued at approximately $3.953 billion in cash and shares. This transaction will result in Husky becoming an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of CompoSecure. The agreement is subject to several closing conditions, including shareholder approval and regulatory clearances. The transaction is expected to enhance CompoSecure’s market position and operational capabilities, with potential implications for stakeholders, such as changes in the company’s board and management agreements.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMPO) stock is a Buy with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CompoSecure stock, see the CMPO Stock Forecast page.

CompoSecure Announces Redemption of Public Warrants

On November 3, 2025, CompoSecure, Inc. announced the redemption of all its outstanding public warrants to purchase shares of its Class A common stock. The redemption date is set for December 3, 2025, and warrant holders have until that date to exercise their warrants on a cashless basis. Any unexercised warrants will be canceled, and holders will receive $0.01 per warrant. This move follows the company’s right to redeem the warrants as the stock price met certain criteria, potentially impacting stakeholders by altering their rights and investment strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMPO) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CompoSecure stock, see the CMPO Stock Forecast page.

CompoSecure Announces Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

On November 3, 2025, CompoSecure announced its strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with significant growth in net sales and gross profit compared to the previous year. The company also revealed a business combination with Husky Technologies, a manufacturer of engineered equipment, valuing the combined entity at approximately $7.4 billion. This strategic move aims to enhance CompoSecure’s market position and create new opportunities for growth. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026 and is anticipated to be accretive to earnings per share in the first full year post-closing.

The most recent analyst rating on (CMPO) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CompoSecure stock, see the CMPO Stock Forecast page.