GPGI (GPGI)
NYSE:GPGI
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GPGI
(NYSE:GPGI)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▼(-29.91% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held down primarily by very weak reported recent financials (TTM revenue disruption, large losses, and cash burn) and a bearish technical setup (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these are more constructive earnings-call signals, including sizable pro forma profitability/FCF guidance and operational improvements at CompoSecure, though uncertainty and weakness at Husky remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Pro forma scale and FCF guidance
Management's pro forma FY2026 guidance implies durable scale and material cash generation at target performance levels. If achieved, sustained pro forma EBITDA margins and large free cash flow would support reinvestment, deleveraging and capital allocation flexibility over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Severe recent financial deterioration
The abrupt swing to reported zero TTM revenue, a massive net loss and negative free cash flow signals deep operational or reporting disruption and materially weakens financial durability. This undermines near-term liquidity resilience and raises execution risk for meeting pro forma targets absent rapid operational stabilization.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Pro forma scale and FCF guidance
Management's pro forma FY2026 guidance implies durable scale and material cash generation at target performance levels. If achieved, sustained pro forma EBITDA margins and large free cash flow would support reinvestment, deleveraging and capital allocation flexibility over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
GPGI Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
GPGI (GPGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.51B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth-100.00%
EPS Growth-140.99%
CountryUS
Employees1,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryManufacturing - Metal Fabrication
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.35
Shares Outstanding289,861,450
10 Day Avg. Volume3,282,019
30 Day Avg. Volume5,088,993
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.56
Price to Book (P/B)10.02
Price to Sales (P/S)40.74
P/FCF Ratio-104.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-1.75M
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-11.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.00Price Target Upside16.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$508.11M
GPGI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GPGI, Inc. operates as a diversified, multi-industry compounder comprised of companies in various industries. The company engages in acquiring, owning, and scaling high-quality businesses. The company's business segments include CompoSecure, a met...
GPGI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed outlook: CompoSecure delivered a very strong, record quarter with significant revenue and margin expansion driven by ROS and new program wins, stable adjusted free cash flow and a stronger balance sheet from refinancing. Offsetting these positives are meaningful, macro-driven headwinds at Husky (orders down ~16% late in the quarter, EBITDA down ~40%, margin compression of ~770 bps), resin-price volatility and geopolitical/tariff uncertainty that pushed ~>$20M of revenue into future periods. Management emphasized ROS rollout, continued R&D investment and confidence in recovery, but the sizable Husky weakness materially impacted consolidated results, prompting wider guidance ranges.Positive Updates
CompoSecure Record Quarter
CompoSecure delivered pro forma net sales of $130.4M (+25.6% YoY) and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $47.6M (+36.8% YoY); adjusted EBITDA margin expanded ~300 bps to 36.5%. New program wins include American Express Graphite, X Money, Robinhood Platinum, Revolut Audi F1, Fold, Kraken and MetaMask US. Management credits 18 months of Resolute Operating System (ROS) implementation for step-change manufacturing yields and operational efficiencies.
Negative Updates
Husky Revenue and Profitability Weakness
Husky reported pro forma adjusted net sales of $290.8M (down ~5% YoY) and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $38.2M (down ~40% YoY). Pro forma adjusted EBITDA margin contracted to ~13.2%, an erosion of ~770 basis points YoY. Management attributed part of the shortfall to late-quarter customer delays that pushed >$20M of revenue into future periods.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
CompoSecure Record Quarter
CompoSecure delivered pro forma net sales of $130.4M (+25.6% YoY) and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $47.6M (+36.8% YoY); adjusted EBITDA margin expanded ~300 bps to 36.5%. New program wins include American Express Graphite, X Money, Robinhood Platinum, Revolut Audi F1, Fold, Kraken and MetaMask US. Management credits 18 months of Resolute Operating System (ROS) implementation for step-change manufacturing yields and operational efficiencies.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GPGI issued revised guidance: for 2Q FY‑2026 it expects net sales of $425–$475 million, pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $105–$120 million and pro forma adjusted EBITDA margins of 24.7%–25.3%; for FY‑2026 it now expects pro forma net sales of $1.95–$2.10 billion, pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $550–$610 million and pro forma adjusted EBITDA margins of 28.2%–29.0%, with pro forma adjusted free cash flow of $275–$325 million and an anticipated year‑end total leverage of ~3.0x; management noted Q1 generated roughly $29 million of adjusted free cash flow and that approximately $20 million of revenue was deferred late in the quarter (≈$6M delivery delays, ≈$5M shipment/logistics, ≈$4M payment delays), driving the wider guidance range.GPGI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 0.00 | 59.82M | 420.57M | 390.63M | 378.48M | 267.95M |
| Gross Profit | -2.00K | 28.75M | 219.23M | 209.08M | 219.64M | 144.85M |
| EBITDA | -314.11M | -12.11M | -50.52M | 154.60M | 167.29M | 104.91M |
| Net Income | -392.50M | -136.00M | -53.72M | 19.24M | 18.66M | 3.15M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.41B | 517.27M | 478.23M | 201.04M | 162.94M | 131.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.50M | 114.64M | 77.46M | 41.22M | 13.64M | 21.94M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 205.53M | 350.86M | 375.37M | 398.07M |
| Total Liabilities | 297.80M | 274.13M | 621.68M | 406.81M | 454.94M | 539.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.12B | 243.14M | -143.45M | -802.36M | -892.23M | -1.02B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -78.11M | -23.27M | 120.04M | 93.37M | 83.73M | 73.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -78.49M | -22.88M | 127.45M | 104.31M | 92.78M | 77.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.02B | -60.69M | -9.95M | -10.94M | -9.05M | -4.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.09B | 120.75M | -81.26M | -65.79M | -92.03M | -64.51M |
GPGI Technical Analysis
Neutral
17.12
Price Trends
19.85
Negative
20.53
Negative
19.46
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.80
Negative
46.06
Neutral
55.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPGI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 17.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.94, below the 50-day MA of 19.85, and below the 200-day MA of 19.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.80 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GPGI.
GPGI Risk Analysis
GPGI disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GPGI reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GPGI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $4.22B | 12.84 | 24.53% | 0.67% | 4.58% | 556.92% | |
77 Outperform | $1.71B | 41.89 | 3.84% | ― | 9.43% | 80.11% | |
70 Outperform | $2.63B | 15.14 | 11.58% | 1.27% | 14.99% | 86.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $499.24M | 30.80 | 11.72% | 3.49% | 20.94% | 88.74% | |
59 Neutral | $518.29M | -11.22 | -6.76% | ― | -0.04% | -172.38% | |
49 Neutral | $3.51B | -2.31 | -46.10% | ― | -100.00% | -140.99% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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GPGI Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
GPGI Posts Mixed Q1 2026 Results, Maintains Outlook
Neutral
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, GPGI reported first-quarter 2026 results showing pro forma adjusted net sales of $421.2 million, a 3% increase from a year earlier, but a pro forma adjusted EBITDA decline of 16% to $82.1 million and a GAAP net loss of $235 million...
Business Operations and Strategy
GPGI Showcases Strategy at J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
GPGI, Inc. announced that Executive Chairman Dave Cote participated in a fireside chat at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference in Washington, D.C., on Monday, March 16, 2026, at 1:45 p.m. EDT. The company made the session accessible to investors...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.