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Greek Organization of Football Prognostics SA (GOFPY)
OTHER OTC:GOFPY
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Greek Organization of Football Prognostics SA
(OTC:GOFPY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▼(-11.46% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/06/26
The score is driven mainly by solid underlying profitability/cash generation and supportive valuation (high yield, moderate P/E), tempered by heightened balance-sheet leverage and a clearly weak technical setup (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings call takeaways were net positive on guidance delivery and the upcoming lotteries concession, but near-term headwinds (higher costs and softer online sports betting) and regulatory/license uncertainties limit upside.
Positive Factors
Profitability & Cash Generation
High margins and near-par FCF conversion indicate durable earnings quality and strong internal funding capacity. Over the next 2–6 months this supports reinvestment in digital/retail, consistent dividend or payout policies, and a buffer to absorb cyclical revenue dips without immediate liquidity strain.
Long-term Lotteries Concession
A secured 12-year concession materially extends revenue visibility and creates a stable, long-dated cash flow stream. This structural win supports multi-year product refreshes, planning for capital allocation, and reduces short-term reliance on volatile betting verticals through predictable lottery revenues.
Digital & Retail Modernization
Ongoing digital integration, retail upgrades and a unified app create structural advantages: improved customer lifetime value, cross-sell between channels, and younger-player acquisition. These investments can sustainably raise visitation and spend per customer over multiple years once rollout scales.
Negative Factors
Elevated Financial Leverage
A sharp rise in leverage materially lowers financial flexibility and raises interest/covenant risk if earnings weaken. Over a 2–6 month horizon, higher debt amplifies downside from cyclical revenue shocks and constrains opportunistic capital allocation or large strategic moves without deleveraging.
Top-line Softness and Sports Betting Weakness
Recent multi-quarter declines in online sports betting and a TTM revenue drop indicate structural demand pressure in a core vertical. Persisting softness would reduce operating leverage benefits, limit margin recovery, and make near-term achievement of prior growth trajectories more challenging.
Rising Operating Costs & Weaker Cash Coverage
Sustained higher operating expenses from digitalization and marketing increase the structural cost base and compress free cash flow upside. Coupled with weakened operating cash flow coverage, this reduces margin resilience and limits the firm's ability to service higher leverage without further efficiency gains.
Greek Organization of Football Prognostics SA (GOFPY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
N/A
Dividend Yield6.24%
Average Volume (3M)42.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.5
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth10.42%
EPS Growth12.94%
CountryUS
Employees1,315
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.20
Shares Outstanding717,207,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume42,854
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.90
Price to Book (P/B)15.96
Price to Sales (P/S)5.38
P/FCF Ratio9.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap10.00T>
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.36
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Greek Organization of Football Prognostics SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOPAP Holding SA engages in the operation of numerical lottery and sports betting games. It operates through the following segments: Lotteries, Sports Betting, Instant & Passives, VLTs, Telecommunication & eMoney Services and Others. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.
How the Company Makes MoneyGOFPY generates revenue primarily through its betting operations, which include both online and retail betting services. Revenue streams include commissions on bets placed by customers, subscription fees for premium statistical data and forecasting services, and advertising partnerships with sports-related brands. Additionally, the organization may benefit from strategic alliances with other betting platforms and sports agencies, which further enhance its market reach and profitability. The company's earnings are also bolstered by promotional events and sponsorships that attract more users to its betting services.
Greek Organization of Football Prognostics SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and strategic picture: full-year GGR grew 4.9% and underlying margins (34.7%) met guidance, the 12-year Hellenic Lotteries concession was secured with an imminent May 1 start, VLT and retail investments are driving visitation, and the Allwyn rebrand has been well received. Offsetting these positives were a recent decline in online sports betting (not fully quantified), elevated Q4 operating expenses driven by digital investments, some muted retail lottery comps versus a strong prior-year quarter, and lingering uncertainties around regulatory implementation and a major license beyond 2030. Overall, management emphasized momentum, transformational digital and retail initiatives, and confidence entering the Allwyn combination, while acknowledging near-term headwinds and some open items.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year GGR Growth in Line with Guidance
Group Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) grew 4.9% for the fiscal year 2025, in line with the company's provided outlook.
Strong Underlying Margin Performance
Excluding one-off items, the full-year margin came in at 34.7%, consistent with prior guidance toward mid-30s (around 35%).
Hellenic Lotteries 12-Year Concession Secured
Court of Auditors has greenlighted the signing of the new 12-year Hellenic Lotteries concession; expected start of operations under the new concession from May 1, 2026.
Planned Lottery Product Refresh
With the new lotteries concession the company will launch a refreshed scratch portfolio and update traditional products (e.g., Laiko, Ethniko), enabling new gaming experiences in 2026.
VLTs and Retail Enhancements Driving Footfall
Video Lottery Terminals (VLTs) showed very good performance and increased visits per customer driven by investments in store upgrades, loyalty schemes and in-store promotions; company plans further venue refreshes and digital upgrades.
Strategic Digital Investment Program
Increased spending on digital (retail and online), technology and marketing to support a 'digital-first' 2030 strategy: initiatives include one unified app/account/wallet, store fiber connectivity and large retail digitalization upgrades aimed at attracting younger players.
Rebranding Execution and Initial Market Reception
Transition of consumer-facing brand from OPAP to Allwyn (started Jan 19) has been smooth with positive initial feedback; brand awareness reported at ~50% and a year-long program planned to build trust and attributes.
Investor Relations Continuity and Athens Listing Retained
IR team in Athens will remain as primary local contacts integrated with a broader global IR team; the combined entity will retain listing on Athens Stock Exchange (Euronext Athens).
Supportive Regulatory Development on Illegal Betting
New draft bill addressing illegal betting welcomed by the company; management expects the legislation to have a significant and positive impact in coming years, although timing and magnitude are uncertain.
Negative Updates
Q4 Online Sports Betting Decline
Online sports betting declined in Q4 (attributed to customer-friendly sporting results) and has trended down for several quarters; management says Q1 shows business back on track but did not quantify the decline percentage.
Increase in Operating Expenses in Q4
Q4 showed higher expenses driven by digital agenda (payroll increases for digital staff), marketing (CRM, sponsorship) and technology spend; management noted some one-offs and that OpEx will not continue rising at the same pace but costs have reached a higher steady level.
Retail Lottery Growth Moderation vs Tough Comparables
Retail lottery revenue growth was muted in Q4 versus very strong Q4 2024 comparables (record JOKER jackpot buildup), resulting in a weaker year-on-year comparison for the quarter.
Uncertain Status of Major Gaming License Beyond 2030
No update provided on extending exclusive legacy games rights beyond the 2030 expiration; management stated interest but offered no timeline or certainty.
No Update on Novibet Acquisition / Competition Clearance
Management declined to comment on Novibet acquisition status, deferring to Allwyn colleagues; matter remains subject to review by the Competition Committee with no new details disclosed.
Regulatory Benefits Quantified Yet Uncertain
While the new illegal betting bill is expected to be positive, management emphasized it is too early to quantify the impact until final law and implementing actions are defined.
Company Guidance
The management reiterated its FY2025 guidance and outcomes: Group GGR grew 4.9% for the year, and management had guided operating metrics toward the mid-30s (~35%) range — excluding one-off items the reported margin for the year was 34.7%. They expect to begin operating the new 12‑year Hellenic Lotteries concession from the beginning of May (May 1) once parliamentary ratification and publication are complete, noted the legacy exclusive games rights currently expire in 2030, and described 2026 as “a year of great success” (no numeric 2026 revenue/profit guidance given). On brand transition, the consumer-facing rebrand launched January 19 and current Allwyn awareness is roughly 50%; management also flagged anticipated positive effects from forthcoming illegal-betting legislation and ongoing digital investments (one app/one wallet/retail digital upgrades) but offered no additional quantitative forecasts.Greek Organization of Football Prognostics SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability and solid free-cash-flow generation (high margins; FCF close to net income), but the balance sheet has become materially riskier with a sharp leverage increase (TTM debt-to-equity ~3.24) alongside softer recent revenue and weaker cash-flow coverage of earnings.Income Statement
Profitability is strong, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross margin ~61.6% and net margin ~30.2%, supported by robust operating profitability (TTM EBIT margin ~43.7%). Revenue has grown solidly over the multi-year period (2020–2024), but momentum has softened recently with TTM revenue down ~5.5% versus the prior year and margins below the 2022 peak—suggesting a more normalized earnings run-rate and some top-line cyclicality.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage has increased meaningfully: debt-to-equity rose from ~0.93 (2023) and ~1.18 (2024) to ~3.24 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating heavier reliance on debt and reduced balance-sheet flexibility. While returns on equity are very high in TTM, the jump appears amplified by lower equity and higher leverage, which raises risk if earnings soften further.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow of ~681M and free cash flow close to net income (free cash flow to net income ~0.94), indicating good earnings quality and conversion. However, cash flow coverage of net income weakened in TTM (operating cash flow to net income ~0.57) versus 2024 (~1.23), and free cash flow growth turned slightly negative—pointing to some recent working-capital or timing pressure.71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.26B | 1.57B | 1.44B | 1.33B | 1.04B |
| Gross Profit | 699.00M | 962.93M | 852.35M | 1.11B | 605.84M |
| EBITDA | 786.94M | 835.32M | 744.50M | 875.98M | 543.66M |
| Net Income | 464.34M | 485.78M | 408.32M | 592.33M | 259.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.18B | 2.00B | 2.10B | 2.57B | 2.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 773.25M | 494.87M | 490.89M | 728.07M | 863.99M |
| Total Debt | 968.14M | 681.41M | 686.58M | 835.51M | 1.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.70B | 1.39B | 1.33B | 1.50B | 1.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 423.06M | 579.41M | 740.65M | 1.04B | 910.86M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 686.91M | 672.09M | 497.92M | 637.00M | 469.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 697.69M | 704.85M | 527.59M | 659.80M | 493.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -237.55M | -18.49M | 92.63M | -53.23M | -39.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -191.70M | -683.60M | -857.32M | -742.49M | -100.80M |
Greek Organization of Football Prognostics SA Technical Analysis
Negative
10.73
Price Trends
9.77
Negative
10.12
Negative
10.58
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.43
Positive
34.60
Neutral
11.07
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GOFPY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.83, above the 50-day MA of 9.77, and above the 200-day MA of 10.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.07 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GOFPY.
Greek Organization of Football Prognostics SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $4.94B | 55.90 | 27.50% | ― | 23.15% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $5.35B | 17.39 | 30.38% | 1.34% | 29.54% | 4389.69% | |
65 Neutral | ― | 14.54 | 99.08% | 6.24% | 10.42% | 12.94% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $22.07B | 30.77 | 0.46% | ― | 18.51% | 37.25% | |
56 Neutral | $373.55M | ― | 23.16% | ― | 1.79% | ― | |
49 Neutral | $18.65B | -124.17 | -3.56% | ― | ― | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GOFPY
Greek Organization of Football Prognostics SA
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.