GMS (GMS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.17B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.91M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 37.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 0.22%
• EPS Growth: -57.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,624
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 87
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 1.29
• Shares Outstanding: 38,004,720
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,877,785
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,910,816
• PEG Ratio: -1.82
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.97
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.33
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.91
• 1Y Price Target: $105.00
• Price Target Upside: -4.25% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $119.00 ▲(8.52%Upside)

GMS's overall score is driven by a strong technical outlook and positive corporate events, offset by valuation concerns and mixed financial performance. The merger with Home Depot presents a significant growth opportunity, but declining profitability and challenging market conditions weigh on the overall assessment.

Positive Factors

Acquisition Interests

The Home Depot has submitted an offer, indicating interest from major players in the industry.

Revenue Goals

A QXO acquisition of GMS would further QXO's stated goal of $50 billion in revenue.

Negative Factors

Bid Uncertainty

Details around HD's competing offer remain uncertain, adding risk to the stock's outlook.

Competing Bid Doubts

The lack of key details in Home Depot's bid for GMS casts doubt on a potential bidding war.

Lack of Recommendation

GMS has yet to provide a formal recommendation to shareholders related to QXO’s bid, creating uncertainty.

GMS Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GMS Inc. is a leading North American distributor of specialty building products, primarily serving the commercial and residential construction markets. The company operates through a network of distribution centers across the United States and Canada, offering a broad range of products including wallboard, ceilings, steel framing, insulation, and other complementary construction materials. GMS is committed to providing value-added services and solutions to its customers, which include contractors, builders, and other professional construction firms.

How the Company Makes Money

GMS Inc. generates revenue by selling a wide range of building products to customers in the construction industry. The company operates a large distribution network, enabling efficient delivery of products and materials to construction sites. Revenue streams include the sale of wallboard, ceilings, steel framing, and insulation, among other products. Additionally, GMS benefits from partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers, allowing it to offer competitive pricing and maintain a diverse product portfolio. The company's focus on customer service, inventory management, and logistical efficiency further contributes to its profitability.

GMS Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GMS shows stable revenue but declining profitability, with rising costs impacting margins. The balance sheet remains solid with moderate leverage and strong equity. Cash flow performance is mixed, with strong operational cash generation offset by declining free cash flow, indicating potential challenges ahead.

Income Statement

The TTM revenue growth is marginal at 0.21%, reflecting stability in sales but indicating limited expansion. Gross profit margin is healthy at 31.23%, but the net profit margin has decreased to 2.09% from 5.02% last year, suggesting a decline in profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins also show a downward trend, indicating increased costs or operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.12, showing moderate leverage. Return on equity is weaker at 8.13% compared to last year's 18.90%, affected by declining net income. The equity ratio remains robust at 37.07%, suggesting a stable financial structure despite the leverage.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow decreased by 10.62% year-over-year, signaling potential challenges in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.32, indicating efficient cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio at 2.91 reflects a drop, suggesting reduced financial flexibility.

Breakdown	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.51B	5.50B	5.33B	4.63B	3.30B
Gross Profit	1.72B	1.78B	1.73B	1.49B	1.06B
EBITDA	427.52M	582.99M	640.25M	542.15M	299.86M
Net Income	115.47M	276.08M	332.99M	273.44M	105.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.83B	3.76B	3.27B	3.10B	2.48B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	55.60M	166.15M	164.75M	101.92M	167.01M
Total Debt	1.60B	1.53B	1.29B	1.33B	1.10B
Total Liabilities	2.41B	2.30B	1.99B	2.04B	1.66B
Stockholders Equity	1.42B	1.46B	1.27B	1.06B	822.46M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	336.08M	376.00M	389.06M	138.53M	123.43M
Operating Cash Flow	383.57M	433.25M	441.74M	179.61M	153.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-239.49M	-430.77M	-111.47M	-387.21M	-63.59M
Financing Cash Flow	-255.22M	-437.00K	-265.61M	143.28M	-136.62M

GMS Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 109.66
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GMS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 109.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 107.34, above the 50-day MA of 89.73, and above the 200-day MA of 85.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 78.05 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GMS.

GMS Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ROCK	77 Outperform	$1.87B	14.51	13.70%	―	-5.13%	16.93%
JBI	77 Outperform	$1.22B	24.61	9.51%	―	-13.95%	-63.37%
BLDR	72 Outperform	$13.61B	15.65	19.62%	―	-5.49%	-33.51%
GMS	68 Neutral	$4.17B	37.93	8.02%	―	0.22%	-57.02%
BXC	67 Neutral	$593.72M	16.45	5.96%	―	-4.22%	-16.01%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$10.91B	15.53	5.25%	2.19%	3.15%	-27.00%

GMS Corporate Events

GMS Announces Merger Agreement with Home Depot

On June 29, 2025, GMS Inc. entered into a merger agreement with The Home Depot and its subsidiary, SRS Distribution, to be acquired for $110 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $5.5 billion. This acquisition is expected to enhance GMS’s offerings and market reach, benefiting shareholders, customers, and employees by expanding product and service options. The merger is anticipated to close by January 31, 2026, pending regulatory approvals and other customary conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GMS) stock is a Hold with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMS stock, see the GMS Stock Forecast page.

GMS Receives Acquisition Proposal from QXO, Inc.

On June 19, 2025, GMS Inc., a leading distributor of specialty building products in North America, announced it received an unsolicited acquisition proposal from QXO, Inc. to purchase all outstanding shares at $95.20 per share in cash. The GMS Board of Directors, with guidance from independent legal and financial advisors, will review the proposal to determine the best course of action for the company and its shareholders. No immediate action is required from shareholders, and the company will not comment further until the review is complete.

The most recent analyst rating on (GMS) stock is a Hold with a $81.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMS stock, see the GMS Stock Forecast page.

GMS Reports Q4 FY2025 Financial Results

GMS reported its Q4 and full-year FY2025 financial results, highlighting a slight growth in net sales driven by strategic acquisitions and strong cash flow generation despite challenging market conditions. The company implemented significant cost reductions and maintained resilient pricing in key product categories such as Wallboard and Ceilings, although Steel Framing prices were pressured. The company also repurchased shares and maintained substantial liquidity, positioning itself for continued strategic execution.

The most recent analyst rating on (GMS) stock is a Hold with a $81.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GMS stock, see the GMS Stock Forecast page.