Greenfire Resources (GFR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $827.66M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 231.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.88
• Revenue Growth: -21.67%
• EPS Growth: 251.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 193
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 125,403,564
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 221,972
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 231,555
• PEG Ratio: -0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.82
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.30
• 1Y Price Target: $5.10
• Price Target Upside: -22.73% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.50 ▼(-1.52% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/15/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/15/26

The score is supported primarily by improved solvency and a credible recapitalization path, which materially lowers financial risk. It is held back by weaker 2025 fundamentals (lower revenue/margins and sharply reduced free cash flow) and mixed technical signals, while valuation is difficult to assess given the negative P/E and no stated dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Becoming debt-free materially reduces interest expense and refinancing risk, increasing financial resilience through oil-cycle volatility. A near-zero leverage profile and sizable equity base create durable optionality to fund projects, withstand price shocks, and prioritize strategic investments over forced deleveraging.

Committed liquidity facility

An undrawn, larger revolver provides a multi-year liquidity buffer to fund capex and working capital without market refinancing. Coupled with the recapitalization, this lowers cost of capital and preserves operational flexibility, supporting sustained investment programs and downside protection in cyclical downturns.

Operational execution and stable production

Consistently achieving production guidance demonstrates reliable field performance and credible base cash flow generation. Stable mid-teens kbpd output and an approved capital budget support predictable upstream volumes, which underpin revenue durability and the firm's ability to service projects and maintain operations over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Revenue and margin deterioration

A sustained decline in revenue and materially compressed margins reduce operating leverage and cushion against commodity volatility. Lower gross and operating margins shrink free cash generation capacity, making it harder to fund reinvestment or absorb shocks without tapping liquidity or diluting equity over the medium term.

Free cash flow weakness & planned outspend

Sharp FCF decline and weak cash conversion signal that earnings are not translating into durable cash for reinvestment or returns. Management expects to outspend cash flow for 2–3 years, implying reliance on external liquidity or equity, which can pressure shareholder returns and increase execution risk if commodity or operational performance weakens.

Operational and regulatory compliance risk

Regulatory exceedances impose ongoing compliance costs, capital spend, and potential production interruptions. Remediation projects and stricter oversight can raise operating expenses and constrain capacity utilization, introducing sustained execution and permitting risk that can materially affect margins and social license to operate.

Greenfire Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greenfire Resources Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, exploration, and operation of oil and gas properties in the Athabasca oil sands region of Alberta. The company operates the Tier-1 oil sands assets located in Western Canada. It utilizes steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) extraction technology, a thermal oil recovery process to recover bitumen. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Greenfire primarily makes money by producing and selling bitumen (heavy crude oil) from its in-situ oil sands operations. Revenue is generated from the sale of produced barrels, with realized pricing typically influenced by heavy-oil benchmarks and differentials, quality adjustments, and the company’s transportation and marketing arrangements used to access downstream markets. The company’s earnings are driven by production volumes, realized sales prices, and operating costs (including fuel/energy for thermal recovery, field operating expenses, and maintenance), as well as royalties and other government levies applicable to oil sands production. If there are material long-term offtake/marketing contracts, hedging programs, or specific partnership/transport commitments that meaningfully affect realized pricing or cash flow, they are not available in the provided context and are therefore null.

Greenfire Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a major positive (very low leverage by 2025 and sizable equity base), improving resilience in a cyclical industry. Offsetting this, 2025 operating performance weakened (revenue down ~15% YoY and materially lower margins), and free cash flow fell sharply (~71% YoY) with weak cash conversion, raising questions about near-term earnings and cash-flow stability.

Income Statement

Profitability remains positive in 2025 (annual) with an ~8.1% net margin and ~10.1% operating margin, but results weakened sharply versus 2024. Revenue fell ~15.0% year over year and margins compressed materially (gross margin ~14.6% in 2025 vs ~32.6% in 2024), signaling higher cost pressure and/or softer pricing. The last few years show volatility typical of the sector (notably a loss year in 2023), which lowers confidence in earnings stability despite the return to profitability in 2024–2025.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved dramatically by 2025, with total debt dropping to ~6.1M and debt-to-equity falling to ~0.005, creating a very conservative capital structure versus 2022–2024 (debt-to-equity roughly ~0.30–0.56). Equity is sizable (~1.17B) relative to assets (~1.29B), which supports balance sheet resilience. The trade-off is that returns are more modest in 2025 (return on equity ~4.0%) compared with 2024 (~14.8%), implying the stronger balance sheet is currently producing lower profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, with operating cash flow of ~134.0M in 2025 (annual), but free cash flow fell to ~24.3M (down ~71.0% year over year), indicating heavier spending and/or weaker operating momentum versus 2024. Cash flow quality also looks mixed: free cash flow is only ~18.1% of net income in 2025, suggesting earnings are not translating strongly into residual cash after investment needs. Overall, liquidity appears supported by operating cash flow, but free-cash-flow volatility is a key watch item.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	675.40M	573.87M	790.95M	675.97M	998.85M	0.00
Gross Profit	259.30M	83.53M	258.19M	279.47M	512.74M	0.00
EBITDA	187.84M	58.21M	213.74M	-1.71M	188.22M	-709.58K
Net Income	134.59M	46.65M	121.41M	-135.67M	131.70M	-711.62K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.30B	1.29B	1.26B	1.17B	1.17B	1.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	114.66M	42.02M	67.42M	109.53M	35.36M	60.87M
Total Debt	329.45M	6.11M	338.24M	390.07M	255.37M	325.57M
Total Liabilities	424.36M	118.71M	436.04M	478.48M	336.49M	424.19M
Stockholders Equity	879.44M	1.17B	821.43M	695.00M	837.77M	704.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	83.55M	24.25M	57.14M	53.12M	125.14M	27.39M
Operating Cash Flow	147.69M	134.00M	144.55M	86.55M	164.73M	31.98M
Investing Cash Flow	-72.06M	-98.42M	-94.41M	-12.10M	-63.75M	-336.53M
Financing Cash Flow	-10.33M	-57.13M	-95.43M	2.00K	-123.64M	365.61M

Greenfire Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GFR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.13, above the 50-day MA of 5.68, and above the 200-day MA of 4.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GFR.

Greenfire Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PNRG	71 Outperform	$357.12M	6.52	12.19%	―	-6.03%	-54.59%
GPRK	68 Neutral	$522.85M	7.68	16.86%	6.49%	-26.63%	-66.89%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
GFR	63 Neutral	$827.66M	10.14	16.30%	―	-21.67%	251.59%
SJT	61 Neutral	$237.24M	-632.04	-211.83%	―	-99.78%	-103.13%
WTI	55 Neutral	$447.82M	-1.61	107.62%	2.41%	-6.92%	-126.24%
ANNA	48 Neutral	$252.62M	12.87	-23.43%	―	―	-985.28%

Greenfire Resources Corporate Events

Greenfire Resources Wipes Out Debt After Fully Subscribed C$300 Million Rights Offering

On December 19, 2025, Greenfire Resources Ltd. completed a major refinancing initiative, highlighted by a C$300 million rights offering to eligible shareholders that closed on December 16 and was fully subscribed, resulting in the issuance of 55,147,055 common shares at C$5.44 (US$3.85) per share and increasing the total shares outstanding to 125,404,146. Using the net proceeds from this offering together with cash on hand, the company redeemed its US$237.5 million 12% senior secured notes due 2028 and simultaneously increased its revolving senior credit facility with a syndicate of Canadian banks to C$275 million, leaving Greenfire debt-free as of December 19, 2025 and signaling a significantly strengthened balance sheet, reduced interest burden, and improved financial flexibility for shareholders and lenders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GFR) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenfire Resources stock, see the GFR Stock Forecast page.

Greenfire Resources Completes Fully Subscribed C$300 Million Rights Offering, Redeems High-Coupon Notes and Becomes Debt-Free

On December 19, 2025, Greenfire Resources Ltd. announced it had completed a fully subscribed C$300 million rights offering to existing shareholders, issuing 55,147,055 common shares at C$5.44 (US$3.85) per share and bringing total shares outstanding to 125,404,146. The company used the net proceeds, together with cash on hand, to redeem in full its US$237.5 million 12% senior secured notes due 2028, and simultaneously closed an upsized US$275 million revolving credit facility with a syndicate of Canadian banks, which remains undrawn, leaving Greenfire debt-free and with expanded liquidity to support its operations and growth plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (GFR) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenfire Resources stock, see the GFR Stock Forecast page.